Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:03:01 GMT -8
616ish? What was so important about that level?
Hmm...
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Post by appledoc on Oct 19, 2012 8:03:35 GMT -8
Max pain tells me a close above $620 is in store. Hoping we don't deviate.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 8:04:39 GMT -8
I've now removed my "intermittent bear" hat and have donned my "intermittent bull" hat. I may need to buy a hat to hold out for change. WS has shaken the tree, then cut it down. Fast STO on the daily is at zeros, WTF
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:05:18 GMT -8
I'm going to take a Sponge-esque punt on an upside target of 636 for today or Monday. Fire up the jets, good buddies. Gotta be consistent - so, why 636? Gap fill? Bounce? This is a capitulation event?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 8:05:55 GMT -8
616ish? What was so important about that level? Hmm... 616 was the target of Lovey's xxx/ooo chart
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Post by macwire on Oct 19, 2012 8:06:03 GMT -8
We are investing not trading. This is trading. Good luck added to my April 705s for time being. Remaining cautious.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 8:07:05 GMT -8
Bought 20 November 700's at $3.20. Small bet so all or nothing is ok but I'm really hoping for "all"
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 8:07:23 GMT -8
Also bought 50 shares that I'll sit on for a year or two.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:11:14 GMT -8
Don't kid yourself either.
If you're buying Apr 13s, you're trading.
Same with '14, '15 LEAPs if they're a big part of your portfolio.
Obviously it's a continuum and everyone's portfolios are different. I invest and I trade (mostly trade). But self-identification at least of individual buys helps focus the mind.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 19, 2012 8:13:35 GMT -8
Nom Nom Nom, time to go long. Yep. 22K 620 & 19K 625 puts expiring today, BTW.
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Post by sponge on Oct 19, 2012 8:14:10 GMT -8
680 is important because a 3% move from that number will get us back to $700. In my view if we don't get to $650 post earnings, get ready to see $570 again. There is a boat load of options above $650 in January that they would love to see expire worthless. If they can get it below $600 before then they will cause even more panic in Nov and Dec. I don't see it happening, but one needs to be ready for it incase. I still think we will close just below 630 at this point today.
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Post by lance on Oct 19, 2012 8:14:50 GMT -8
150 day moving avergae approaching quickly. Has not been broken this year. The question you have to ask yourself assuming you are long trader. Is there any possiblity aapl could be 615 or lower a year from now? IMHO based on predicted earnings growth, fundamentals, cash hoard, revenues, dividend, share buyback, new products, long term trend technical trend, etc. The answer is NO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:15:20 GMT -8
Oh yeah, it's monthly OpEx madness day.
It's also event - 2 trading days.
Will keep monitoring that 616-618 range.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:16:08 GMT -8
150-day? Do traders really use that though.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 19, 2012 8:17:33 GMT -8
I'm going to take a Sponge-esque punt on an upside target of 636 for today or Monday. Fire up the jets, good buddies. Gotta be consistent - so, why 636? Gap fill? Bounce? This is a capitulation event? First off, I have been viewing this move down for the last 2 days as a possible capitulation event to coincide with the tag of the daily lower acceleration band, and a test of the backside of a trend line on the daily chart. There are a few features on shorter term charts that tend to coincide when such an event happens. Now that is out of the way I am looking for a bounce. I picked 636 out of the air because a few chart features sit thereabouts, such as the daily middle STARC band, and those things usually give a good idea of how high a bounce will go. Of course, there's nothing to say we won't sit around these levels for a while or even drift a little lower, but on the whole I think things are now poised for a move higher.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 19, 2012 8:18:37 GMT -8
We are investing not trading. This is trading. Good luck added to my April 705s for time being. Remaining cautious. You're investing. I'm trading.
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Post by sponge on Oct 19, 2012 8:19:30 GMT -8
Don't kid yourself either. If you're buying Apr 13s, you're trading. Same with '14, '15 LEAPs if they're a big part of your portfolio. Obviously it's a continuum and everyone's portfolios are different. I invest and I trade (mostly trade). But self-identification at least of individual buys helps focus the mind. I agree. I guess I am now officially a trader/gambler. However given the small positions that I have in options, I am just dipping my toes in the water . After watching this stock get sold off by WS for no good reason hundreds of times in the last 8 years, I have finally learned not to get mad but take advantage of these sales. Anyone who bought Jan 13 500 calls in the middle of the summer last year at 320 would have gotten a nice 20X return on their investment. We all know aapl will come back. We just have to be patient and be willing to wait 16 months some times. April is still a good time because I think January will blow us away again if we stay below 650 by then.
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Post by doublerainbow on Oct 19, 2012 8:21:18 GMT -8
i don't think there's enough momentum to get back up to those levels... i hope so but feels pretty "lame" right now ): Whatever the move is this afternoon, I'm determined to long another 100 shrs before close. Last purchase at 646 was too optimistic I guess... really thought it was going to start moving up but I was wrong (again!) but at least I bought it at the same price as my area code... (:
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Post by wheeles on Oct 19, 2012 8:22:09 GMT -8
150-day? Do traders really use that though. I use plenty of lines and bands, but not that one. For reference, I use 13 EMA, 50 EMA, 200 EMA, middle Bollinger (20 SMA) and middle STARC. The downside is that you end up with charts that look like knitting.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:25:51 GMT -8
I'll go out on a limb and say capitulation bottom would at least give the bears pause, even though there may be downside targets. I actually should check those days we hovered around 310 or so.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:27:57 GMT -8
HOLY CRAP GOOG.
Mid-670s. Ouch.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 19, 2012 8:29:29 GMT -8
JPM hosting this call to all clients on Monday - fyi:
Implications of the iPad mini Please join members of the J.P. Morgan Global Technology research team to discuss sector and stock implications of the imminent iPad mini. This conference call will discuss the potential impact on Apple, the tablet market, the PC market, and the tech supply chain.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 19, 2012 8:29:50 GMT -8
when share price drop to a level technical support can no longer support. The only support we can look to is Fundamental. for instance PE ration. so do not panic sell, look at the fundamental, if it is intact, believe in them because those are the reason why we buy the share at the first place.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:31:40 GMT -8
Oh. That legged-in BPS I had on GOOG just sold.
$40+ in the money and prolly 5% gain to show for it. LOLs.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 8:32:09 GMT -8
HOLY CRAP GOOG. Mid-670s. Ouch. Elevator going down, looks like the 200 DMA is a given.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 19, 2012 8:32:21 GMT -8
I should have known about Goog, that there was going to be a delayed sell-off.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:33:17 GMT -8
Panic selling is NEVER a good idea.
And yep, fundies always have their day - see GOOG.
At some point more and more people will pound the table on AAPL. It's getting really cheap.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:35:06 GMT -8
What is that 200-day MB?
'Bout time GOOG reprice. Its business strategy is catching up to it. Moto was just one of the more recent tells.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2012 8:36:30 GMT -8
PE = 14.50 here
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 8:36:41 GMT -8
Might be asking too much for AAPL to reverse with power today. But staying over 615, hopefully 620 would help.
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