bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Sept 28, 2015 10:49:23 GMT -8
13 million iPhones in 3 days is over 50 per second...insane What then? Then Apple will have an even greater compare in FQ 1 2017. Rinse and repeat every year. This brings up a very subtle and important point that analysts see clearly, but we amateurs miss entirely. Because the 2015 first quarter is so strong with the iPhone6 and 6+, that sets up a tough compare for next quarter. We have all seen this and know that it is coming. But, what we don't see is that when Apple beats that tough compare, then 2017 will be just that much harder. That's right. Apple cannot possibly beat the quarter that beats 2015, so the stock is doomed. If we don't beat it, we are doomed now, if we do beat it we are doomed in a year, but why hold the stock if it is doomed in a year. No wonder they make the big bucks. Who would have thought it through so completely?
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 28, 2015 11:07:38 GMT -8
A couple of years ago, Apple announced that they're going to change their style of reporting and provide a guidance range and they reported accordingly in the following quarters that followed. This was done to control the guessing game, wild expectations/whispers BS and the ER chaos. They tried to stick with this method to the extent that after the launch weekend of the iPhone 5 they even announced a revised guidance. This kept the analysts, of all kinds, from putting out expected numbers out of their asses.
But of late, that style of reporting has taken the backseat and they've gone back to the original sandbag-and-beat. Everyone's expectations and numbers are going haywire again. That's why the last two quarters have done shite to the stock even though they were good beats.
Just a thought that's been bugging me for a while.
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macster
Member
Posts: 2,644
Member is Online
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Post by macster on Sept 28, 2015 12:26:25 GMT -8
It is very difficult to price AAPL's growth because it can be so inconsistent. It wasn't long ago that growth was flat, and then we have this year which is unbelievably strong. That said, a P/E of 13 is absurdly low. Agreed and according to rumors the apple watch 2 may be delayed to late 2016. So again the subject of spreading out new and updated products throughout the year instead of most in a narrow period would help. ALOT! edit: IMO
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 28, 2015 12:49:51 GMT -8
Well today was an incredible buzz kill ...... sometimes I wish I could learn to turn everything off .....
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 28, 2015 13:02:14 GMT -8
What then? Then Apple will have an even greater compare in FQ 1 2017. Rinse and repeat every year. This brings up a very subtle and important point that analysts see clearly, but we amateurs miss entirely. Because the 2015 first quarter is so strong with the iPhone6 and 6+, that sets up a tough compare for next quarter. We have all seen this and know that it is coming. But, what we don't see is that when Apple beats that tough compare, then 2017 will be just that much harder. That's right. Apple cannot possibly beat the quarter that beats 2015, so the stock is doomed. If we don't beat it, we are doomed now, if we do beat it we are doomed in a year, but why hold the stock if it is doomed in a year. No wonder they make the big bucks. Who would have thought it through so completely? LAST year, the quarter/year ended on September 27th. LAST year, the new iPhone was introduced on September 19th. That gave 8 days of sales of the new iPhone. THIS year had TWO days of sale. THEREFORE will sell more iPhones next quarter than last year.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 28, 2015 13:04:29 GMT -8
I am close to throwing in the towel, liquidating all my options,and coming back later to reassess. This is just too frustrating. I invest in aapl because of the superior execution and fundamentals. But these have nothing to do with the stock anymore, so what's the point. There's always a reason for the market to discount or disbelieve Apple's great numbers. This time it was the China inclusion that soured the milk (?) - or some other dumb-ass fallacy. I'd wait till earnings to reassess myself. Even though the record-breaking reports didn't do much the last two quarters, last October and January's excellent numbers did move the stock a lot.
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Post by sponge on Sept 28, 2015 13:08:14 GMT -8
I think the stock does not always move based in daily Apple News.
I would not read today's move as a true reaction to iPhone sales.
The only moves that count happen 4 times a year with earnings.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Sept 28, 2015 13:10:05 GMT -8
Yes, another frustrating day.
Was just at an investment conference in LA. One of the managers I use was there to present. They run a U.S. equity mandate, have done a terrific job, are LA based and have a concentrated portfolio of only 20 stocks. He mentioned that Apple was one of the twenty but it isn't their highest conviction holding. I got the mic and asked the question why Apple trades at such a low PE and why analysts and investors seem to loose their minds with this stock and the sentiment seems to shift rapidly. He told me that "they weren't sure whether or not Apple would be able to maintain their margins on the iphone and someone could come in and disrupt them like Blackberry and Nokia before them." Now this is a really smart guy whom I respect. It finally gave me what I think is the main reason for Apple's huge sentiment shifts and low institutional penetration. Apple to them is a one trick pony whose main product will be replaced by a better product from a competitor in the next few years which will lead to their stock price cratering as margins plummet. Until Apple can grow the other areas of the business and that it is obvious to everyone that the iphone isn't there only "big" product, investors like him will never have the confidence in Apple that we do and the PE will stay low. His highest conviction stock ironically is American Tower.
Now I think that it is almost impossible to disrupt the incumbent when penetration is between 10% and 90% in a category such as smart phones. Horace D has done some great work in this area. Apple started in 2007 when penetration was below 10% but we are still a long way from 90%. I don't see the iphone being disrupted even in the next 7 years. What about watch, iPad, Music, Pay, TV (and probably auto) as categories that are at 10% or less and just getting started. Okay, automobiles are over 90% but that makes it much easier for someone to come in and disrupt the entire sector.
When you get right down to it, people either see Apple as a unique company on this planet and a serial disruptor or they don't. This uniqueness and the ability to serially disrupt makes Apple a once in a lifetime investment opportunity for those with vision. Stay long and thirsty my friends and keep the faith that Job's greatest achievement was building Apple into a long lasting serial disruptor with the formula to keep it going.
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Post by deasys on Sept 28, 2015 15:59:59 GMT -8
He told me that "they weren't sure whether or not Apple would be able to maintain their margins on the iphone and someone could come in and disrupt them like Blackberry and Nokia before them."…Apple to them is a one trick pony whose main product will be replaced by a better product from a competitor in the next few years And that just goes to show how deep the financial industry's level of misunderstanding about Apple and its markets is. So pitiful… Yep.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 28, 2015 16:38:08 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 28, 2015 17:56:37 GMT -8
I think most of us on the board feel that the AAPL stock price has been hammered much lower than it deserves to be by the constant FUD spewed by anti-Apple “pundits” and others who have,unfortunately, managed to counteract strong Apple Inc. earnings reports and actual facts with rumors, conjecture and skewed reporting. This circumstance has continued for quite some time, not just a couple of week or months. I’ve added a couple of charts and comments to a previous posting of mine in the Apple Fundamentals section that suggest that this is the fourth (soon to be the third) longest time that we’ve been in this situation since I began recording AAPL stock price data in 2007 or so. The two longest periods were in 2013 and 2008 when the stock price fell and recovered over a 2 year period. The added post is at: aaplfinance.proboards.com/thread/1117/helps-all-eggs-basket
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 28, 2015 19:23:52 GMT -8
wow Lucky ... I just read your post .. had no idea how many shares you hold .... congrats !
I get seasick just looking at the daily change in my portfolio .... I can only imagine what your are seeing on a daily basis ...
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 28, 2015 20:06:57 GMT -8
wow Lucky ... I just read your post .. had no idea how many shares you hold .... congrats ! I get seasick just looking at the daily change in my portfolio .... I can only imagine what you're seeing on a daily basis ... Actually, gtrplyr, if our portfolio was totally invested in any other single stock instead of AAPL, I wouldn't have the nerve to stay in the stock market at all these days. As it is, our portfolio has been down a ridiculous amount in one day but it's also been up a ridiculous amount in one day as well. Long term, with Apple now paying dividends, IMO, it's a no-brainer to stay with what's worked so well in the past. I think it just takes a great deal of patience and confidence in the company to be long AAPL these days and I'm hoping the stock price soon rises to match the strength of the company and it's recent performance. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 28, 2015 20:39:58 GMT -8
wow Lucky ... I just read your post .. had no idea how many shares you hold .... congrats ! In a Roth no less!
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Post by Volvocoupe on Sept 28, 2015 21:56:02 GMT -8
wow Lucky ... I just read your post .. had no idea how many shares you hold .... congrats ! I get seasick just looking at the daily change in my portfolio .... I can only imagine what your are seeing on a daily basis ... Very well done LuckyC. Following in your footsteps at this point but started with borrowed money in 2008. Very,very happy for you and your wife. Not sure my wife and I will ever get to your current value but we have a chance. Keep fighting the good fight!!!
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