Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 29, 2015 2:20:22 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 29, 2015 2:31:40 GMT -8
It occurred to me when reading the 5 things that keep Carl Icahn up at night that I used to view Carl with disdain. For years he was portrayed as the ruthless corporate raider. Having observed his participation with Apple, I have come to respect him... to the point that the thought of him as 'Treasury Secretary' actually appeals to me.
Apologies, my intent is not to steer us into politics.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 29, 2015 2:36:09 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 29, 2015 2:42:45 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Sept 29, 2015 4:05:06 GMT -8
Since84, you've been busy, very busy. Thank you.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 29, 2015 5:03:44 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 29, 2015 5:55:23 GMT -8
investor.apple.com
FY 15 Fourth Quarter Results Apple’s conference call to discuss fourth fiscal quarter results is scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, 2015 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 29, 2015 6:00:11 GMT -8
I woke up to find my MasterCard had fraud. The thief went on several dating sites including Ave Maria Singles (WTF is that?). I've come to learn he (I'm assuming it's a he) is looking for a devout Catholic partner. Ah the irony of it all. He STEALS a credit card, to LIE, to a partner, and DECEIVE her throughout their relationship. God bless him. He went for the Hat Trick...and completely inconvenienced me as I had to call the bank - freeze the card - have new numbers, cards, blah, blah, blah issued....and now to call the gym and other places that automatically charge it on a monthly basis. May he rot in hell. Happy Tuesday...he must have been inspired by the Pope's visit.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 29, 2015 6:07:19 GMT -8
Delete
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 29, 2015 6:09:09 GMT -8
I woke up to find my MasterCard had fraud. The thief went on several dating sites including Ave Maria Singles (WTF is that?). I've come to learn he (I'm assuming it's a he) is looking for a devout Catholic partner. Ah the irony of it all. He STEALS a credit card, to LIE, to a partner, and DECEIVE her throughout their relationship. God bless him. He went for the Hat Trick...and completely inconvenienced me as I had to call the bank - freeze the card - have new numbers, cards, blah, blah, blah issued....and now to call the gym and other places that automatically charge it on a monthly basis. May he rot in hell. Happy Tuesday...he must have been inspired by the Pope's visit. Sorry to hear .... I've had 3-4 new Citibank cards due to the fact that we shopped at : Target, Home Depot and somewhere else I can't remember ... This credit card fraud needs to stop and Apple Pay could make a big difference. I'm a little surprised Apple hasn't pushed harder on this front ... of course I can't see what they are doing behind the scenes but merchants are slow to move on this one. IF they were held more liable for fraud they would wake up ... when was the last time you had to show ID after swiping your card ? It does happen every once in a while but even a fake ID is easy to get .... fingerprints are a different story . I use Apple pay as often as I can but the only places I frequent that accept it are Trader Joe's and Subway ..... we need some more traction on this front. Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 29, 2015 6:17:37 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 29, 2015 6:56:43 GMT -8
What just happened ? Up $1.xx? now only $.20 in the blink of an eye .... some line must have crossed another line .... argggggg
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Post by sponge on Sept 29, 2015 7:44:24 GMT -8
Sadly the MACD topped out on Sept 17. It indicated a downward trend since then which it has followed straight forward. Regardless of news we would go down. We wanted to start recovering this morning, but with volume very low it was easy for the day trading bears to take over.
The question now is weather we go into red territory with MACD. I hope we don't and we see the lows of the week today. Otherwise we could revisit 109. I prefer we get it over with and start to climb towards earnings.
The Oct 27 date gives plenty of time to recover from the OE games we wil see as usual.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 29, 2015 8:57:17 GMT -8
Lately this stock is more like roulette than an investment .
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 29, 2015 8:58:53 GMT -8
GOOGLE is not standing still. THEIR new products today are impressive.
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Post by rickag on Sept 29, 2015 9:35:23 GMT -8
GOOGLE is not standing still. THEIR new products today are impressive. The one thing Google will never, ever be able to copy from Apple is Apple's stance on privacy.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Sept 29, 2015 9:41:29 GMT -8
There is a great sci-fi book called "The Name of the Wind" If you are into that sort of thing, I recommend it and the sequel. A third book is due soon. The hero is a magician and part if his training is to be able to split his mind and hold two contradictory thoughts at once. Watching Apple execute as well as they do and seeing the stock punished for it seems to require this same skill. It is not my sense of justice that bothers me here, or even the nagging fear that there is something about the dynamics of the market place that I am missing in my rational models. It is the feeling that we are dealing with willful ignorance.
I understand willful ignorance in many areas. People choose to ignore data and facts because it leads them to question a belief that they cannot give up, so it is better for them to ignore the data. I won't mention a specific area because I don't want to offend anyone, but I am sure you can think of non offensive examples. The question here is "why would anyone take a willfully ignorant position about a stock?"
We are left with several possibilities, none of them that attractive. 1. The stock price can be manipulated over the long term and what we are seeing is manipulation by the evil overlords. While this might be true around option closing, I just don't see it over a one year period, especially when we have such a relatively small percentage of institutional ownership. 2. All the analysts are really that dumb. I am skeptical of this because I KNOW there are so many people out there who are smarter than me. In addition, most price targets are up around 140. 3. There are just no buyers. Strangely enough, this might just be true. Anyone who has owned Apple for a few years is overweight in it. What started as 5% of my portfolio is now about 65%. Even though I am not a fan of diversification, I hesitate to add to the position. This theory also jibes with the way that Apple moves on unsophisticated rumors. It implies that it is the new retail buyer that moves the stock. A corollary to this theory would be that as the market drops, funds that own Apple have to sell to maintain their percentage. I looked into this and found that the funds do not rebalance daily, but a prolonged downturn could force them to sell.
I am going to abandon the idea of willful ignorance and go with door number 3. Other than selling some Jan 18 puts and calls, I plan to just ride it out and work hard on splitting my mind.
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Post by macglenn on Sept 29, 2015 9:54:16 GMT -8
There is a great sci-fi book called "The Name of the Wind" If you are into that sort of thing, I recommend it and the sequel. A third book is due soon. The hero is a magician and part if his training is to be able to split his mind and hold two contradictory thoughts at once. Watching Apple execute as well as they do and seeing the stock punished for it seems to require this same skill. It is not my sense of justice that bothers me here, or even the nagging fear that there is something about the dynamics of the market place that I am missing in my rational models. It is the feeling that we are dealing with willful ignorance. I understand willful ignorance in many areas. People chose to ignore data and facts because it leads them to question a belief that they cannot give up, so it is better for them to ignore the data. I won't mention a specific area because I don't want to offend anyone, but I am sure you can think of non offensive examples. The question here is "why would anyone take a willfully ignorant position about a stock?" We are left with several possibilities, none of them that attractive. 1. The stock price can be manipulated over the long term and what we are seeing is manipulation by the evil overlords. While this might be true around option closing, I just don't see it over a one year period, especially when we have such a relatively small percentage of institutional ownership. 2. All the analysts are really that dumb. I am skeptical of this because I KNOW there are so many people out there who are smarter than me. In addition, most price targets are up around 140. 3. There are just no buyers. Strangely enough, this might just be true. Anyone who has owned Apple for a few years is overweight in it. What started as 5% of my portfolio is not about 65%. Even though I am not a fan of diversification, I hesitate to add to the position. This theory also jibes with the way that Apple moves on unsophisticated rumors. It implies that it is the new retail buyer that moves the stock. A corollary to this theory would be that as the market drops, funds that are own Apple have to sell to maintain their percentage. I looked int this and found that the funds do not rebalance daily, but a prolonged downturn could force them to sell. I am going to abandon the idea of willful ignorance and go with door number 3. Other than selling some Jan 18 puts and calls, I plan to just ride it out and work hard on splitting my mind. I agree with your well constructed theory, especially # 3. But there may be two positive forces that could bring more investors to AAPL. 1. The growing US market share of Apple customers, of which a percentage will become investors. That's why I became one and I'm sure many of you. 2. The unwinding of other over-inflated stocks, even just one big one, could flush the market with cash looking for an alternative investment with reasonable valuation.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 29, 2015 9:54:13 GMT -8
Nice post bud.
Another strange factor is that the news flow with Apple has been quite positive lately, with positive sales news, evidence that China isn't a drag, T Mobile growth hints, analyst upgrades, etc, yet still the stock slides. I think even Wall Street doesn't really understand it, and then you're left with Trip Chowdry saying things like "the stock is underperforming because investors have no confidence in Apple's management."
To me it feels like a the simplest explanation is a self-fulfilling negative cycle. People really buy stocks because they think the future value will exceed the present value, i.e. price appreciation. With AAPL, what people see is that even though the company is executing well, the stock is flat or down. So they don't buy the stock (or sell it) because the stock isn't performing well. And then the stock doesn't perform well because people are selling and not buying. Rinse and repeat.
There are other stocks that behave better (i.e., go up instead of sideways/down) so why not buy those instead? Seems pretty obvious and analysts like to dress it up in fancier words, but that's what's happening with AAPL. In fact, what we are doing -- holding an underperforming stock, no matter how good the fundamentals -- is a rare exeption on the institutional and retail side.
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Post by The Big Toe on Sept 29, 2015 9:57:45 GMT -8
According to Streetinsider.com, one of the reasons for a drop in price is that the EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT is one week later than expected. WTF? It goes on to say:
"Recent history shows that when Apple's earnings date is pushed out the results are not as stellar. In 2013, the company reported its fourth quarter results on October 28 and beat by only 5 cents. In 2012, the company reported its fourth quarter results on October 25 and missed by 1 cent."
Dumb ass Tim Cook should push the earnings report up to 10/13 and the price would jump to $175. And the results better be put out in Arial Rounded MT Bold, and not that bullshit Bookman Old Style font, or else we could see a 50% drop.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 29, 2015 10:20:49 GMT -8
Sounds like people are looking for ANY reason to sell .... we are all just idiots who don't get it .. Apple sucks, iPhone sales reports are lies and Blackberry will take over the world again very soon ....
SIGH ......
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Post by macster on Sept 29, 2015 10:21:41 GMT -8
It's only natural to suspect some diabolical groups of traders, retail whatever and media are blackballing this company and its stock….
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Post by tuffett on Sept 29, 2015 10:22:53 GMT -8
Repatriate the $200B, buy back $100B immediately and double the dividend. Worrying about the 35% tax hit is doing far more damage than good. Put the cash to use and give long term investors a better reason to hold the stock (i.e a 4%+ dividend that grows 10% a year).
Sad as it is this thing could easily go down to a <10 P/E. A high yield could put a floor on it...or not.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 29, 2015 10:28:57 GMT -8
Repatriate the $200B, buy back $100B immediately and double the dividend. Worrying about the 35% tax hit is doing far more damage than good. Put the cash to use and give long term investors a better reason to hold the stock (i.e a 4%+ dividend that grows 10% a year). Sad as it is this thing could easily go down to a <10 P/E. A high yield could put a floor on it...or not. I totally disagree with your strategy. Instead, I say discontinue all buybacks and dividends - from what I can see they've done nothing to raise the value of the company. Instead, go back to hoarding cash. When Apple has more than $1 trillion in cash in 10 years, the market cap will have to be over 1 trillion. As it is now, giving their cash back to the shareholders, the company is like a leaky boat on the waves of shareholder sentiment.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 29, 2015 10:29:16 GMT -8
According to Streetinsider.com, one of the reasons for a drop in price is that the EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT is one week later than expected. WTF? It goes on to say: "Recent history shows that when Apple's earnings date is pushed out the results are not as stellar. In 2013, the company reported its fourth quarter results on October 28 and beat by only 5 cents. In 2012, the company reported its fourth quarter results on October 25 and missed by 1 cent." Dumb ass Tim Cook should push the earnings report up to 10/13 and the price would jump to $175. And the results better be put out in Arial Rounded MT Bold, and not that bullshit Bookman Old Style font, or else we could see a 50% drop. Boy, they are reaching. By having the earnings announcement late in October the Company has maximum visibility of its largest and most important fiscal quarter. Guidance will be more solid, and we may even have a new product rolled out by then (Apple TV) to add to the forward looking numbers. The later the date the BETTER the feel for the then current quarter.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 29, 2015 10:38:21 GMT -8
Repatriate the $200B, buy back $100B immediately and double the dividend. Worrying about the 35% tax hit is doing far more damage than good. Put the cash to use and give long term investors a better reason to hold the stock (i.e a 4%+ dividend that grows 10% a year). Sad as it is this thing could easily go down to a <10 P/E. A high yield could put a floor on it...or not. I totally disagree with your strategy. Instead, I say discontinue all buybacks and dividends - from what I can see they've done nothing to raise the value of the company. Instead, go back to hoarding cash. When Apple has more than $1 trillion in cash in 10 years, the market cap will have to be over 1 trillion. As it is now, giving their cash back to the shareholders, the company is like a leaky boat on the waves of shareholder sentiment. That could work too. But at least dividends return cash back to investors without them having to reduce their ownership stake. It's nice to get a big cheque every three months with a raise ever year.
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Post by macster on Sept 29, 2015 10:58:28 GMT -8
Our fearless cheerleader Icahn has been out there spooking the market generally. Everyone knows He owns many bushels of apples. This is possibly the reason Apple is down more than it should be. Why would He be sabotaging his own investments? Traders wonder.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 29, 2015 11:20:59 GMT -8
AAPL down after announcing record iPhone sales, & Blodget sells BI for $343M.
And they say I'm cynical for believing we live in an uncaring, absurd universe.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 29, 2015 11:30:38 GMT -8
Extraordinary. Apple's $25 billion in business-related revenue during the past 12 months is already approximately half of Microsoft's corporate sales in the same period.
Mr Market simply shrugs.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,651
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 29, 2015 11:49:13 GMT -8
Oh AAPL
You're really making it hard for me to not go deep into margin. I just had a nice heart to heart with my new "account manager" (seems like it happens a lot, but I guess 4 over 15-18 years isn't bad), and told him how I had learned over the years to use less margin and less options, hoping to not get juiced again at a bad time.
But right now, it's pretty hard not too. And the brokerage is more than happy to give me enough rope to hang myself, while giving me the possibility of adding a digit to our balance if things go well.
Tell ya what AAPL, head back up to 110+ and we'll call it good. Today's best, but tomorrow works ok too if you really feel you need to put in a closing price down here. Only average volume so far.
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