Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 11:34:35 GMT -8
Ran across this chart which seems to put AAPL into a better perspective, iPad if this is in the wrong place, please move it. Nice catch. Good chart, AAPLbeat, whoever you are!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 11:36:51 GMT -8
Welcome, talphan!!! I echo your sentiments about having a support group during WTF sales... I belong to a close-knit trading group (just about everyone originated from AFB1), and we've grown that much closer through all the times we've had our as*es handed to us -- individually and collectively -- mostly around Apple's earnings. This is one of the worst years to start trading options. But hey, I started in the late 90s - at least as bad! Be nimble, have a plan you can articulate, set a risk tolerance you can objectively live with, set realistic goals, and that's a lot of the battle right there. iPad - are you referring to us here or the Skype folks? We basically are a group of traders here but buy-and-holders are most welcome. I've still trying to get people involved in the fiscal Q4 earnings discussion...)
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Post by Rupert on Oct 20, 2012 12:04:06 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 12:14:25 GMT -8
iPad - are you referring to us here or the Skype folks? We basically are a group of traders here but buy-and-holders are most welcome. I've still trying to get people involved in the fiscal Q4 earnings discussion...) Was referring to my Skype trading group. AFB welcomes anyone -- investor or trader -- interested in Apple and AAPL!
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Post by nathanstevens on Oct 20, 2012 13:17:17 GMT -8
Nice article. Access to the full ecosystem in the US really improves the user experience. I've experienced limited access while in the Middle East and it degrades the experience. For example: The kindle bookstore had approximately 300 titles available for download. Siri was only good for setting reminders and checking the weather.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 20, 2012 13:42:25 GMT -8
This comment is aimed at Adam, regarding the now-closed thread for Friday: perhaps you should get one of those books for Windows -> Mac switchers. Sounds like there's a lot you're missing when you use a Mac...
(But as for Mission Control, that's pretty recent. You wouldn't have known about it a couple of years ago because it wasn't there...)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 14:00:53 GMT -8
Hey, sponge?
What's the thinking over at Braeburn? Wonder if Mercel is pounding the table on AAPL.
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Post by talphan on Oct 20, 2012 14:31:14 GMT -8
Be nimble, have a plan you can articulate, set a risk tolerance you can objectively live with, set realistic goals, and that's a lot of the battle right there. Very sage advice Mav. Unfortunately, I often find that I can't follow even the simplest of all investing advice: Have patience. Every year, we have a couple of WTF sales, and maybe once a year or so, we have a triple WTF sale where we hit the 200-DMA. I keep telling myself I'll wait for one of these, but always end up chasing something to inevitably get run over... At least now, thanks to this board, I have a couple more tools to leverage for the slingshot back up. Thanks Cl4 - Not sure if I have much experience compared to many on this board but will try to contribute when I can.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 14:34:43 GMT -8
How about a little investing/trading self-introduction? Really simple - how long have you been at it? Stocks, options? Have you focused on AAPL? No need for any sense of scale or portfolio amount whatsoever. That way we can get a quick baseline.
As for me, I've been at this for well over 10 years, and have been much more active in the past 5 than the first 5.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 20, 2012 14:48:22 GMT -8
Anybody have a share price to cash ratio chart handy?
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Post by chasmac on Oct 20, 2012 16:03:08 GMT -8
I know what you mean Mav, I remember when they stopped putting cassette players in cars in favor of the new tech of CD's. I have not bought a new car since that time so that I can still enjoy all of my old cassettes JC, always pictured you as more of an 8-track guy listening to Journey in your TransAm! BTW, gas prices here have been dropping like a rock. And they're predicting another .50 drop.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 20, 2012 16:28:51 GMT -8
Anybody have a share price to cash ratio chart handy? Not sure exactly what you're looking for. Used high and low prices for each qtr. post earnings/cash. Nate: we went from $3.90s to $3.30s in about a month.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 20, 2012 16:36:14 GMT -8
Anybody have a share price to cash ratio chart handy? Not sure exactly what you're looking for. Used high and low prices for each qtr. post earnings/cash. Nate: we went from $3.90s to $3.30s in about a month. Huge thanks.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 16:47:06 GMT -8
Call it $140B in cash for fiscal Q4 then? Looks more than doable.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 20, 2012 17:02:04 GMT -8
Call it $140B in cash for fiscal Q4 then? Looks more than doable. finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AAPLHow do we get $ 140 ? I'm no pro at the balance sheet.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 17:19:27 GMT -8
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Post by talphan on Oct 20, 2012 17:51:34 GMT -8
How about a little investing/trading self-introduction? Really simple - how long have you been at it? Stocks, options? Have you focused on AAPL? No need for any sense of scale or portfolio amount whatsoever. That way we can get a quick baseline. I thought I already did, but I guess more concrete data is needed. I'm in healthcare, but did IT consulting for a few years before dotcom and am a techie at heart, hence the affinity for our fruit co. Discounting buying ETOYS, I've been day trading since 2005, pretty much 100% in AAPL, since I just don't have time to track another company as closely. These days, I would probably classify myself as a swing-trading investor, if there is such a beast. It would've been the same to my portfolio if I had bought & held, but trading is much more fun & enlightening. How else would I find out about OE & all the shenanigans that happen around these times, like the premature release of SJ's obituary by Bloomberg. Also fundamentals couldn't predict how AAPL could drop from 190s to 80s in 2008... I just started playing w/ options this April, mostly long term calls, & recently, selling puts to take advantage of elevated IV. I've also dabbled in BCS, but keep buying back the short leg on drops. Anyhow, my goal is 15% ROI/yr, but consistently over 20-30 years. After getting creamed in 2008, my yearly returns have been 18%, 41%, 31%, and was at 70% until this recent drop. I'm hoping to not add to Nick Nansen's stats about most traders not surviving more than 5 years... As with many investors, my main problems are greed & fear, and I think this board is a wonderful salve for both, though there is obviously a distinct bullish bias.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 17:56:55 GMT -8
Great! All I needed to know: Day trader from 2005, AAPL-focused, swing trader (several of us are here), pretty much new to options (so historically an "buy sider" for lack of better term). Now I know what level of non-advice to not dispense. Trading is demanding. But you learn discipline with time. iPad can tell you, I'm living proof it's possible for anyone!
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Post by chasmac on Oct 20, 2012 18:10:24 GMT -8
Ack! Had a typo in there. Jeez. Appledoc, can you fix your post with the new image that I amended in my first post? Thanks Mav.
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Post by hellojapan on Oct 20, 2012 18:10:24 GMT -8
I agree entirely. If starting price is more than $249, I think we have problems; unless there's some shockingly cool new feature. I disagree. I think with a $249 price there will be a lot of people crying and wringing their hands about margins. I'm happier with $329. It's amazing that people consider $499 expensive for a tablet now. What we are getting for that unsubsidized price is nothing short of incredible. I still remember paying 300 bucks for a not-that-great digital camera in 2006.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 20, 2012 18:43:08 GMT -8
I agree entirely. If starting price is more than $249, I think we have problems; unless there's some shockingly cool new feature. I disagree. I think with a $249 price there will be a lot of people crying and wringing their hands about margins. I'm happier with $329. It's amazing that people consider $499 expensive for a tablet now. What we are getting for that unsubsidized price is nothing short of incredible. I still remember paying 300 bucks for a not-that-great digital camera in 2006. Keep in mind, they will sell EVERY ONE they can make.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 18:49:28 GMT -8
For the record: I didn't agree with joel either. Just to clarify. Gruber's puzzled over the $329 price. To which I say: iPod touch price coherence, maybe. Besides, Apple has lots of market research showing $X29 is an OK price to charge. See: Cellular iPads. See also: We don't know WHAT the iPad mini is yet. Though we do know about the Nexus and Fire HD: www.google.com/nexus/#/7/specswww.amazon.com/Kindle-Fire-HD/dp/B0083PWAPWApple's doesn't mess around when it enters a market. I mean look at iPhone 5. It's a computational beast! *hopes the iPad mini has a 1366x1024 display and/or something better than a stock A5*
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 18:54:14 GMT -8
Ack! Had a typo in there. Jeez. Appledoc, can you fix your post with the new image that I amended in my first post? Thanks Mav. Let's try that again. $122B in cash this quarter? (Gotta account for the divvy too.)
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Post by BillH on Oct 20, 2012 18:56:09 GMT -8
I disagree. I think with a $249 price there will be a lot of people crying and wringing their hands about margins. I'm happier with $329. It's amazing that people consider $499 expensive for a tablet now. What we are getting for that unsubsidized price is nothing short of incredible. I still remember paying 300 bucks for a not-that-great digital camera in 2006. Keep in mind, they will sell EVERY ONE they can make. +1 Somewhere at Apple there is (hopefully) an elasticity of demand chart overlaid with a production ramp forecast. I'm not saying they should price it as high as the market would allow at launch but having a multi-month wait time while leaving millions of dollars sitting on the table serves no one. Slight change of topic while I'm here...,I'm aware of the pain that's been inflicted by the market in the last week but have been asked by the higher ups to post this so here goes. I sold a pretty good chunk of stock in the last run up. Didn't catch the high but did pretty well nonetheless. I'm a little concerned about what next year looks like with the "world wide recession/fiscal cliff/transition to a digital economy that reduces employment needs". Every once in a while I join the sky is falling herd...,I don't know why and don't much care for it. I bring this up only because it seems to me that this sentiment isn't referenced enough at the moment. There may be more to this pull back than the twice annual fire sale. Don't know.
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Post by sponge on Oct 20, 2012 19:02:27 GMT -8
Hey, sponge? What's the thinking over at Braeburn? Wonder if Mercel is pounding the table on AAPL. Not as many options holders there so the gashing of teeth is minimum. It clear however that there is manipulation and we just have ride out the storm. We should see a nice move up next week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 19:05:44 GMT -8
BillH:
Short (put/bear put spreads) AMZN. The ultimate market crash hedge. ;D
I find the bold...unnecessary.
Also...wait what? Higher ups? There's only one I know of here.
The cure for market uncertainty is nimbleness and the ability to change direction as quickly as needed.
The best test I can think of is the one I cited a year ago on TMO (yup, vain enough to Google it up): "It’s the intersection of fear and reality that we all have to watch out for."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 19:06:29 GMT -8
Hey, sponge? What's the thinking over at Braeburn? Wonder if Mercel is pounding the table on AAPL. Not as many options holders there so the gashing of teeth is minimum. It clear however that there is manipulation and we just have ride out the storm. We should see a nice move up next week. Thanks for the update. And hey, since mad is over here, there's no excuse for Mercel not to be.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2012 19:23:36 GMT -8
Not as many options holders there so the gashing of teeth is minimum. It clear however that there is manipulation and we just have ride out the storm. We should see a nice move up next week. Thanks for the update. And hey, since mad is over here, there's no excuse for Mercel not to be. Everyone picks his poison.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 19:24:31 GMT -8
Yup. So it is. Kinda makes me wonder why you stayed here. Oh wait...
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Post by BillH on Oct 20, 2012 19:37:47 GMT -8
BillH: Short (put/bear put spreads) AMZN. The ultimate market crash hedge. ;D I find the bold...unnecessary. Also...wait what? Higher ups? There's only one I know of here. The cure for market uncertainty is nimbleness and the ability to change direction as quickly as needed. The best test I can think of is the one I cited a year ago on TMO (yup, vain enough to Google it up): "It’s the intersection of fear and reality that we all have to watch out for." Well...,I thought a paragraph of bold re: the general economy vs. 100's of pages re: trading theory might not be inappropriate. If I had your trading skills (or knowledge) I'd be operating quite differently. But I don't. It's buy and (mostly) hold for me. Six months before the dot-com bust I was preparing my business for sale with hopes of attracting one of the financial groups that were active consolidators. In the blink of an eye the capital market went totally dry. Again...,this was 6 months before the market tanked. To this day it has me scratching my head as to how in the hell they knew but the missed opportunity cost me big time. It did have a happy ending as I retired anyway and put every scraped together nickel into our favorite fruit. Still...,it's not for no reason that I go all paranoid every once in a while. This may be one of those times. Don't know.
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