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Post by wheeles on Oct 21, 2012 14:10:06 GMT -8
T3Live, a NY-based outfit. They have some free stuff, they're intermediate trend technical traders. Some of us check in on their free content, not a recommendation, etc. iPad and RG are more familiar with them than I am. Oh, I think I saw a video of theirs. I try and shy away from "experts". That's not a judgement on them, but more on myself. I like to form my own opinions on where I think things are going, and if others agree with that, then good. If they don't, that's fine too.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 14:12:19 GMT -8
This coming week will sure be interesting. I could be wrong about this, but I don't remember a major new Apple event w/numerous new product releases and quarterly earnings both happening on the same week within a few days of each other. This week promises to be all kinds of "fun".
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Post by magictrackpad on Oct 21, 2012 14:21:14 GMT -8
This coming week will sure be interesting. I could be wrong about this, but I don't remember a major new Apple event w/numerous new product releases and quarterly earnings both happening on the same week within a few days of each other. This week promises to be all kinds of "fun". Perhaps I'm being too much of an optimist here, but if both the Apple event and the earnings release are perceived positively by "the street", then could we see a stratospheric takeoff unlike anything before?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 14:23:18 GMT -8
Well, I left "fun" up to interpretation!
iPad mini - I wouldn't count on it, unless we can see signs that iPad mini event was "presold" (was Friday the presale? I dunno)
Earnings - I need every data point I can get, and AT&T's data point arrives Wednesday.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 21, 2012 14:40:18 GMT -8
As everyone here already knows apple guided 7.65 and at the time it was considered bad because the guidence was so low
Lower guidence and lower estimates means lower expectations and a higher chance to beat.
Even if apple beats wall street can punish apple for not beating by a high enough number
When wall street is expecting crazy high numbers is when I get worried.
We are very oversold and the ipad mini on tuesday will not be a sell the event in my opinion and 2 days later we will have positive earnings. The year finishes over 700 easy.
I have been reading many articles over the weekend by analysts that say that apples recent sell off is overblown especially friday.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 21, 2012 14:41:33 GMT -8
Remember when the iPod mini was launched? Arguably that was the start of the big increase in share price for Apple. Admittedly, things are unlikely to work the same this time around, but still, I don't see the iPad mini as something to be underestimated either.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 21, 2012 14:47:24 GMT -8
Remember when the iPod mini was launched? Arguably that was the start of the big increase in share price for Apple. Admittedly, things are unlikely to work the same this time around, but still, I don't see the iPad mini as something to be underestimated either. i have only been investing for a year but without a doubt apple is the best company to invest in for the long term
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 14:47:38 GMT -8
T3Live, a NY-based outfit. They have some free stuff, they're intermediate trend technical traders. Some of us check in on their free content, not a recommendation, etc. iPad and RG are more familiar with them than I am. Oh, I think I saw a video of theirs. I try and shy away from "experts". That's not a judgement on them, but more on myself. I like to form my own opinions on where I think things are going, and if others agree with that, then good. If they don't, that's fine too. Birdie, I *think* we talked about T3 a long while ago... I'm a huge fan of Scott Redler's "Morning Call" and "Daily Recap." Totally get what you mean about not wanting to be unduly swayed by outside opinions... Scott's one of those by-the-book, "trade price, not opinions" kind of traders, so he doesn't ever mess with my head; and he is SUCH an excellent trading coach (the psychology of trading), he often helps unmess my head when it's messed up. www.t3live.com/videos.html
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 14:47:42 GMT -8
Longer term, my could-easily-be-terribly-wrong bet is that iPad mini is gonna end up very much like iPod mini - but on a tablet-market-sized scale.
Instapundits will try to trash it on price and features just like the iPod mini. The consumer will have the final word like always, and I expect iPad mini to be all kinds of popular in China. It should also be big in education worldwide.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 14:55:26 GMT -8
Redler did kind of miss the mark (a lot) on his GOOG: High-Beta tech of the year call (but he's not really a fundamentals guy, and he was right enough when it counted).
That's where DYODD(tm) is so damn handy. ;D Hate losing my own money, but like being the boss of my own portfolio!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 15:04:05 GMT -8
I find myself reflecting on June 21st 2011. The summer solstice. Apple had been suffering a drop for a cpuple of weeks for no good reason. it dropped below its 200 day SMA, touching 309, closed at 315. The sky was falling. Lifeboats over the side (women and children were not first!). The bears were ascendant because, and this is important, there was no palpable reason for the weakness, so it had to be a systemic failure of the Apple business model. This mysterious failure was known to the wise, who could read the tea leaves. The uninitiated had to sweat in a FUD-induced paroxysm of indecision. When the 200 day broke, many bailed. The ship was surely sinking- somebody knew something! 309!! Three weeks later we were at 400 EXCELLENT post!!!
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jz
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Post by jz on Oct 21, 2012 15:04:32 GMT -8
I find myself reflecting on June 21st 2011. The summer solstice. Apple had been suffering a drop for a cpuple of weeks for no good reason. it dropped below its 200 day SMA, touching 309, closed at 315. The sky was falling. Lifeboats over the side (women and children were not first!). The bears were ascendant because, and this is important, there was no palpable reason for the weakness, so it had to be a systemic failure of the Apple business model. This mysterious failure was known to the wise, who could read the tea leaves. The uninitiated had to sweat in a FUD-induced paroxysm of indecision. When the 200 day broke, many bailed. The ship was surely sinking- somebody knew something! 309!! Three weeks later we were at 400 One way these two times are similar: I'm completely frustrated that I've got no more money to throw at my conviction that we are at or near bottom...
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 15:07:11 GMT -8
PE --- Share Price
13.50 - 574.43 13.63 - 579.96 13.75 - 585.06 14.00 - 595.70 14.25 - 606.34 14.33 - 609.74
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 15:08:58 GMT -8
Hm...and moving to 2012, our rock-bottom point from the accelerated uptrend was 530 (to me).
But assuming that low print of 522 counts on May 18, AAPL's ttm earnings was 41.02, so the multiple was 12.7ish.
Assuming we ever revisit that valuation post-earnings and also assuming EPS of about $9.40 (my projection), $44.9 ttm EPS x 12.7 = 570.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 21, 2012 15:09:54 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 15:11:17 GMT -8
FYI, on June 20, 2011, the multiple was actually higher at about 14.7 @ $310. (ttm EPS was 20.98 per Ycharts)
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Post by roni on Oct 21, 2012 15:41:27 GMT -8
PE --- Share Price 13.50 - 574.43 13.63 - 579.96 13.75 - 585.06 14.00 - 595.70 14.25 - 606.34 14.33 - 609.74 That all changes this week, when TTM earnings will be between $45 and $46, most likely.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 15:43:46 GMT -8
$10+ EPS = Saturn V time.
But iPhone must lead the charge, as it always does. Verizon is kinda sorta hinting at a sequential uptick in iPhone sales, but it'd help for the other two US carriers to weigh in.
So maybe I should adjust my thinking on US carrier activations data: Extrapolation may at least be useful as far as determining a floor for worldwide iPhone sales.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 21, 2012 16:32:28 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 21, 2012 17:01:36 GMT -8
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Post by kloot on Oct 21, 2012 17:07:16 GMT -8
Good perspective, Ensign. +1
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 17:20:52 GMT -8
And now we know.
Am I missing something or is there a BIG difference in the FTSE as reported by Bloomberg and as reported by Forexpros?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 17:29:47 GMT -8
CL4, I thought for sure I gave you and Mav the Forex link before.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 17:32:13 GMT -8
Jdrizzo, do you look at the publish dates? That was put out as a joke. Honestly, I doubt there are 1 billion nickels in circulation.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 17:32:36 GMT -8
The Fib calculator, yes. Can't remember if you showed us the real-time streaming futures link - obviously we didn't surf our way to that.
But now that I know - Feed the Need™!
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 21, 2012 17:39:01 GMT -8
Jdrizzo, do you look at the publish dates? That was put out as a joke. Honestly, I doubt there are 1 billion nickels in circulation. Satire. A little comedy is needed after last week. I hope everyone had their fill of it (plus beer too)
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 21, 2012 17:41:26 GMT -8
That post was kind of rude so I deleted it. Im sorry Tetrachloride that was not my intention.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 17:45:23 GMT -8
I just want to put this out there, it does not make sense. I posted on Nick's site today and asked him about this qtr's estimate and next. I said I thought he was high and asked if he factored in last years Q1 had 14 weeks and this year has 13. Very polite, no vulgarity, just honest questions. He deleted my post. It is his site and he can do what he wants, but deleting a post because it asks him to explain more thoroughly shows that he really is not someone I can respect. His self proclaimed arrogance will be his downfall.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 17:48:01 GMT -8
Satire. A little comedy is needed after last week. I hope everyone had their fill of it (plus beer too) Sorry for my lack of interpretation, I guess I lost my sense of humor along with my money.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 18:02:26 GMT -8
I just want to put this out there, it does not make sense. I posted on Nick's site today and asked him about this qtr's estimate and next. I said I thought he was high and asked if he factored in last years Q1 had 14 weeks and this year has 13. Very polite, no vulgarity, just honest questions. He deleted my post. It is his site and he can do what he wants, but deleting a post because it asks him to explain more thoroughly shows that he really is not someone I can respect. His self proclaimed arrogance will be his downfall. I don't know about "self-proclaimed", but I did find this part of his post from a few days ago ("A New Freedom with Apple") odd: It's not really that last part - seems some people do feel like the pros are "watching over" their numbers, though I disagree due to the massive variance in estimates. It's that whole section.
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