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Post by tuffett on Oct 20, 2015 13:36:19 GMT -8
Knowing AAPL, it's going to be down 2% tomorrow while the rest of the market is green.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Oct 20, 2015 14:23:11 GMT -8
I assume that today was the entire run-up before earnings. Wow, that was nice. Now back to business as usual. Seriously, After earnings and guidance are announced, I expect to see us slide about 20 points. I think it is a great time to sell calls and get some dry powder.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 540
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Post by ono on Oct 20, 2015 15:13:58 GMT -8
Hey just wanted to make sure you didn't miss that one of our members, "neno" started the thread about an hour ago as well so I wanted to include the one thing he/she noted earlier this morning since it's important: "China mobile data published - more than 18.3M 4G customers
Total of 58M new 4G customers in the quarter, more than any other quarter before - just for comparison, last quarter there were 46.5M new 4G customers.
This probably can't be bad news"So, +18.4 in September; before a rumored/known launch of a new iPhone. Fewer than August or July, but not by a lot. An 24% increase in Q3, over Q2. 2014-15 Q2 11.2M Q3 27 Q4 49 Q1 53 Q2 46.6 (June 19.2) Q3 58 (July 20.5, Aug 19.1, Sept 18.4) Q4 Impressive trend. If we see a CQ4 jump even remotely similar to last year (27M->49M), with an iPhone share of that 4G holding steady or improving, well, I would be happy.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Oct 20, 2015 16:57:48 GMT -8
I assume that today was the entire run-up before earnings. Wow, that was nice. Now back to business as usual. Seriously, After earnings and guidance are announced, I expect to see us slide about 20 points. I think it is a great time to sell calls and get some dry powder. Why, Bud? Just the usual reasons?
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Post by chasmac on Oct 20, 2015 18:27:41 GMT -8
Did Tim Cook crash TSLA? Now in woodshed Consumer reports had issues based on customer complaints with the new S model. Apple should learn from this. What ever they come up with better not have any software or battery issues or the stock will drop 20%. The same people that gave it their best rating ever 2 months ago? Linkypoo
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Post by sponge on Oct 20, 2015 20:14:12 GMT -8
I assume that today was the entire run-up before earnings. Wow, that was nice. Now back to business as usual. Seriously, After earnings and guidance are announced, I expect to see us slide about 20 points. I think it is a great time to sell calls and get some dry powder. Why, Bud? Just the usual reasons? History would indicate that given how we reacted the last two ER. I think we could see a head fake with some selling before we finally get over the 200 MA. Clearly we are not going to get there before earnings. WS really is afraid any big iPhone gains this quarter will be short lived. I think what will surprise them is the other products and services. Never mind the underestimating they are making in iPhone growth. Let's keep this train going for the next 5 trading days.
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Post by nagrani on Oct 20, 2015 20:42:30 GMT -8
Face palm
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Oct 20, 2015 20:50:07 GMT -8
I assume that today was the entire run-up before earnings. Wow, that was nice. Now back to business as usual. Seriously, After earnings and guidance are announced, I expect to see us slide about 20 points. I think it is a great time to sell calls and get some dry powder. Why, Bud? Just the usual reasons? My personal unfounded prejudice is that investors care more about not losing than they care about winning. I think investors are afraid that the January earnings will not reflect the same increase that they did last year. The huge jump caused by the new form factor was as big as the boost caused by the iPad. That is the pattern from Apple, a huge jump then about 3 years of solid smaller gains. If the pattern holds, the FUDsters can talk about changes in growth rates, i.e. the change in the change in revenue and EPS. They are saying that it is not enough to be growing, the growth must be accelerating. This is expressed as failure to innovate, law of large numbers, increased competition, blah, blah, blah. There is no logic behind this, just irrational fear that somehow revenue, profits and EPS follow a simple 2nd or 3rd order function. No proof, not even a data point to base this on, but hey, you cannot be too careful. So no one wants to be holding Apple when the guidance points to merely sensational numbers. Fear rules and we drop until greed regains control. I sold Jan 18 calls at 150 and puts at 100. I will be happy to have either or both called away.
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