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Post by mbeauch on Oct 22, 2012 8:20:53 GMT -8
Come on.... Its ANDY. He called the LOW at $615. AAPL went to $610. tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/10/20/what-the-hell-happened-to-apple-last-week/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter"One of three outcomes naturally follow a day like today: 1. Apple can gap-up Monday and begin a multi-month rally making Friday's close the low; 2. Apple can open way down on Monday, sell-off more at the open, hit a capitulation point and then reverse the losses to close green (my favorite). 3. Apple can open the day flat, sell-off down to $600 a share, capitulate and then reverse to close green (also an ok outcome) I do not see today as any of these options. Hmmmmmmm #4 AAPL opens flat, rises and ends the day mixed or down. Altman, I am not a believer in today's move, at all.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 22, 2012 8:21:10 GMT -8
It looks like Samsung are cutting their nose off to spite their face. I doubt that. Apple is cutting them off, and they're issuing stupid lame face-saving press releases. Really, what company turns down billions of dollars of orders then brags about it? None.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 22, 2012 8:24:47 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Oct 22, 2012 8:26:23 GMT -8
It looks like Samsung are cutting their nose off to spite their face. I doubt that. Apple is cutting them off, and they're issuing stupid lame face-saving press releases. Really, what company turns down billions of dollars of orders then brags about it? None. Perhaps they think that if they pull out of a deal with Apple, then it will cost Apple more money to get the components elsewhere, and that Samsung's own products will benefit from lower component cost. What does it matter, anyway? I think Panasonic are jumping in to take Samsung's place.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 22, 2012 8:31:39 GMT -8
What does it matter, anyway? If Samsung were actually able to unilaterally decide to stop shipping displays that Apple had already ordered, which is what they imply in that release, it could be very very bad for AAPL in the short term, because it would directly affect shipments. But if it's really the case that Apple is eliminating them as a supplier, and they're just saying "fine, we didn't want to sell to you anyway", we can assume this will not affect shipments.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 8:36:30 GMT -8
Wait for Thursday.
It's not an issue I bet. Multi-year paid up supply contracts, Samsung being scrutinized by regulators worldwide, Samsung's componentry business having had better relations with Apple than the ripoff mobile side (they have people in Texas after all), etc.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 22, 2012 8:37:55 GMT -8
That's certainly my bet, and it appears the market agrees with me. Oh, wait...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 8:40:37 GMT -8
Btw, I don't mean to be presumptuous, but Apple and its multibillion-dollar prepaid supply contracts are no joke.
It's been said that these prepayments also help build capital equipment. If so I'd figure it's kind of hard to wiggle out of these kinds of deals.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 22, 2012 8:43:12 GMT -8
Btw, I don't mean to be presumptuous, but Apple and its multibillion-dollar prepaid supply contracts are no joke. It's been said that these prepayments also help build capital equipment. If so I'd figure it's kind of hard to wiggle out of these kinds of deals. I doubt that Samsung will be wriggling out of anything. Any premature end to a contract would have to be agreed by both parties.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 8:44:21 GMT -8
Sigh. If this were any other day, I might be adding. Or least not selling.
I'm prepared to have to catch up if AAPL leaves without me. Just trying to manage risk around inflection points.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 22, 2012 8:45:20 GMT -8
Andy Zaky just tweeted this... "If Apple breaks out above $624, it really has nothing but open space above it. Wide open space. Not real resistance until $647..." I hate to say it, but this is just an oversold bounce to me. We have not gotten this close to the 200 day for nothing. Have not looked at any charts, but I am sure the shorter time frames are moving to overbought levels. The STO on Fri was so low it had to move up some before the next leg down. Hate to be so negative. I don't disagree. Just showing what's out there.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 8:45:46 GMT -8
Yup. And when Samsung was already paid to boot?
Really nothing to worry about.
Back to price action. I dunno. As oversold bounces go, how strong is this one?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 8:49:56 GMT -8
Btw, I don't mean to be presumptuous, but Apple and its multibillion-dollar prepaid supply contracts are no joke. It's been said that these prepayments also help build capital equipment. If so I'd figure it's kind of hard to wiggle out of these kinds of deals. I doubt that Samsung will be wriggling out of anything. Any premature end to a contract would have to be agreed by both parties. "Agreed". It sounds like Apple is dealing with a neighbor or realtor or building contractor. Small town handshake. Instead, Apple is on the slow warpath. Apple might tell Samsung what Apple will do, regardless of some details of the contract. How Samsung reacts might be termed as "acquiescence" or "capitulation."
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 8:51:03 GMT -8
New high of day touched at 625.50. Retreated 0.80.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 8:54:40 GMT -8
Today's chart looks a lot like the one where 635 went to 649. Fairly consistent once 620+ was reached.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 22, 2012 8:55:24 GMT -8
Coming along, with pretty good volume. But if too many are watching the 100 DMA at 625.8 and waiting, if the stock gets to 626.5 or 627 it should take off a bit. Capitulation works going both ways, including for those waiting to see if the upswing is real.
I wish my full order for Dec 605-615's BCS at 5 had gone through just before close on Friday instead of just a few, but I have enough skin in the game and I'm going to sit back until after earnings.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 9:01:17 GMT -8
If nothing else I like the price stability today.
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Post by darrenhd on Oct 22, 2012 9:07:58 GMT -8
If nothing else I like the price stability today. A good day so far, but I worry about the next days and the trend. I am reading the stories on the AT&T support forum and MacRumors site about people waiting for their iPhone 5's...some people waiting 4-6 weeks, and some having their shipment delayed by a week. So it's clear there are still supply problems which could affect Apple's ability to post huge numbers, even in Q1. I also expect a weak Quarter when they report on Thursday, so I'm not entirely optimistic about the near term. I hope I am proven wrong but as an Apple long I might just get out now until the dust settles. At least I will wait to see what happens at the event tomorrow before doing anything.
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Post by magictrackpad on Oct 22, 2012 9:11:06 GMT -8
I've only been trading for a short time, and I'm just glad that Apple didn't drop like a rock immediately after I bought, which is what usually happened to me in the past.
I also think that the iPad Mini is going to be a big deal. There are plenty of cheap Android tablets around, but a cheaper iPad is something that will be attractive to many consumers. Those other cheap Android tablets does not grant somebody access to the superior Apple eco-system and those other tablets do not run iOS. An Apple tablet for that cheap is going to sell in significant numbers. I already have a few 9.7" iPads, but I'll probably be ordering the Mini also, just for the hell of it.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 22, 2012 9:17:40 GMT -8
If nothing else I like the price stability today. A good day so far, but I worry about the next days and the trend. I am reading the stories on the AT&T support forum and MacRumors site about people waiting for their iPhone 5's...some people waiting 4-6 weeks, and some having their shipment delayed by a week. So it's clear there are still supply problems which could affect Apple's ability to post huge numbers, even in Q1. I also expect a weak Quarter when they report on Thursday, so I'm not entirely optimistic about the near term. I hope I am proven wrong but as an Apple long I might just get out now until the dust settles. At least I will wait to see what happens at the event tomorrow before doing anything. You cannot attach meaning to the "supply problem" without associated sales results. For all we know, we are dealing with insane demand that was not possible to model or plan for. Or maybe Apple totally screwed up and is having real trouble building product. We cannot distinguish disaster from wonderful, without sales results. Everything else is here-say and conjecture right now.
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Post by darrenhd on Oct 22, 2012 9:23:48 GMT -8
A good day so far, but I worry about the next days and the trend. I am reading the stories on the AT&T support forum and MacRumors site about people waiting for their iPhone 5's...some people waiting 4-6 weeks, and some having their shipment delayed by a week. So it's clear there are still supply problems which could affect Apple's ability to post huge numbers, even in Q1. I also expect a weak Quarter when they report on Thursday, so I'm not entirely optimistic about the near term. I hope I am proven wrong but as an Apple long I might just get out now until the dust settles. At least I will wait to see what happens at the event tomorrow before doing anything. You cannot attach meaning to the "supply problem" without associated sales results. For all we know, we are dealing with insane demand that was not possible to model or plan for. Or maybe Apple totally screwed up and is having real trouble building product. We cannot distinguish disaster from wonderful, without sales results. Everything else is here-say and conjecture right now. We will find out soon enough The rumours talked about shortages of the display and the qualcomm chip. The known fact is quality problems with nicks and scratches on some iPhone 5's, riots at the factory due to strict quality measure and statements from foxconn about this being the most challenging iPhone they've had to make. All of those factors together point towards supply shortages. Some of it is fact, some of it is speculation. But it is also fact people are still waiting 4-6 weeks to get their phones. Apple's guidance and last quarter's sales #'s will help shed some light on the next quarter.
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Post by capablanca on Oct 22, 2012 9:30:21 GMT -8
IMHO, if GS suggests buying volatility, it's because they're selling volatility. And that volatility will collapse by the end of this week. Yes, assuming you mean IV rather than actual V. It must be over 95% probability that IV will fall before or beginning Friday. It is possible to take advantage of this with delta neutral spreads. Even better are delta neutral, gamma neutral spreads. I have been using these for years now. One can also take delta positive, vega negative positions. I did one of these last Friday, as I was both bottom fishing and wanting to short vega. Warning: These trades are risky. They are only for those with lots of options experience AND must be monitored closely. Also note: They are not a get rich quick strategy. My profits are usually very modest.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 22, 2012 9:32:46 GMT -8
You cannot attach meaning to the "supply problem" without associated sales results. For all we know, we are dealing with insane demand that was not possible to model or plan for. Or maybe Apple totally screwed up and is having real trouble building product. We cannot distinguish disaster from wonderful, without sales results. Everything else is here-say and conjecture right now. We will find out soon enough The rumours talked about shortages of the display and the qualcomm chip. The known fact is quality problems with nicks and scratches on some iPhone 5's, riots at the factory due to strict quality measure and statements from foxconn about this being the most challenging iPhone they've had to make. All of those factors together point towards supply shortages. Some of it is fact, some of it is speculation. But it is also fact people are still waiting 4-6 weeks to get their phones. Apple's guidance and last quarter's sales #'s will help shed some light on the next quarter. Except there was no riot. aaplfinance.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=news&thread=101&page=1#6132
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Post by rob_london on Oct 22, 2012 9:49:14 GMT -8
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Post by darrenhd on Oct 22, 2012 10:13:46 GMT -8
We will find out soon enough The rumours talked about shortages of the display and the qualcomm chip. The known fact is quality problems with nicks and scratches on some iPhone 5's, riots at the factory due to strict quality measure and statements from foxconn about this being the most challenging iPhone they've had to make. All of those factors together point towards supply shortages. Some of it is fact, some of it is speculation. But it is also fact people are still waiting 4-6 weeks to get their phones. Apple's guidance and last quarter's sales #'s will help shed some light on the next quarter. Except there was no riot. aaplfinance.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=news&thread=101&page=1#6132Big fight? Riot? It doesn't matter. There was a disturbance related to quality guidelines.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 10:17:54 GMT -8
HOD 626.xx
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 22, 2012 10:28:17 GMT -8
Big fight? Riot? It doesn't matter. There was a disturbance related to quality guidelines. It was more like a few guys were having a smoke, and a FUD-meister decided to fudge a little.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 22, 2012 10:32:13 GMT -8
Havent seen a day like this in a very long time. Great way to start out the week.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 22, 2012 10:32:17 GMT -8
627. But how thick is this 100-day we're trying to get through? Two steps forward, one step and a shuffle back.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 22, 2012 10:35:23 GMT -8
Big fight? Riot? It doesn't matter. There was a disturbance related to quality guidelines. Hey, if you want to make investment and trading decisions based upon rumour and FUD, then fill yer boots. You should be able to find a reason to sell virtually every single day with that strategy. If you believe strongly enough that these smoke signals mean that there really is a serious supply problem, then by all means sell. Just don't expect the smoke to clear in the aftermath. There will be FUD-induced haze surrounding this stock for the foreseeable future.
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