Post by Macentropist on Nov 14, 2015 13:02:14 GMT -5
My response to Bryan Clark...
I am perplexed about your posit that Apple is dead, without a new product or innovation. Do you listen to the conference calls at quarters end? Can you read financial statements? Are you aware 30% of Android fanboys switched to iPhone last quarter? Are you aware of just how compromised Android as an OS is? Are you aware there is no encryption on Android for point to point communication? Are you aware that Alphabet makes zero revenue dollars on Android OS, tis but a loss leader for Doubleclick ad sales only, and the uninterrupted trapping of data on all Android users and stripping of said users privacy for the sake of selling said data to anyone with a dollar bill?
You worry about Apple being a one trick pony with iPhone sales representing +/- 60 percent of Apple Revenues, When your beloved Alphabet derives 90 + percent from Ad sales, how ironic!
A simple question for you sir! Who is paying for your livelihood?
Might i suggest you do more fact checking prior to your next self anointed, opinionated spewings.
Not the best 'o regards,
Sent from my iPad, a superior product!
Will be interesting to see if, and how he responds ?
Post by Macentropist on Nov 14, 2015 14:02:19 GMT -5
And respond Bryan Clark did, i shall simply say that he mia culpa'd.
As a journalist, you are under a mandate to provide a semblance of due diligence on behalf of the articles you write, am i not correct?
The phenomenal growth of Apple is nowhere near it's peak in growth, regarding their entire product line! iPhones are still ramping, China, Japan and Malaysia are "en fuego". India is ramping quickly with new concerted efforts on behalf of Apple, and the Middle East is growing very rapidly. Mac's are outpacing the entire personal computer market which is in decline, this according to every published matrix. Apple sold more smart watches last quarter, than the entire industry combined since the beginning of time, and you spew it is not good enough, oh the irony!
When Apple reports again in January, Tim et al will report, and likely expand the iPhone forever plan to other countries than just the USA. I fully expect yoy growth of 15% or greater on the iPhone product line, and even the vast supply chain has recently announced guidance that reflect this, from Hon Hai, Chipworks, Quora, Cirrus Logics, ad nauseam, they all paint a very rosy outlook for their current quarter..
Apple's A9 chip is turning the industry on it's ear, and is eclipsing the power of many of Intel's most current offerings in the benchmark department. No chip company in the world is even coming close! And we the consumers of your dribble should be worried?
You say the fault of my misunderstandings of your article is due to you not being very clear, prey tell, how about a followup with a mia culpa! Feel free to call upon me if you need any help with this.
You are welcome to share this missive with your editor if you so desire, i too shall do a modicum of unleashing.
Do not feel I am trying to put you back on your defensive heels, not my intent, just trying to correct what i feel is inappropriate reporting/opinion's from your recent article.
Post by Luckychoices on Nov 15, 2015 19:20:16 GMT -5
I decided to put this story in here because the story already has just under 100,000 view and it's worth reading the extent to which these guys will go to dump on Apple Inc. This guy Somaney (I help investors and traders navigate the stock market) is a tool among tools. I know we've seen way too many of this type of FUD but this guy may be in a class by himself. Fortunately, he got a far number of pushbacks from commenters which are worth skimming. Hence the link.
All Excuses Aside, Apple's Major Problem Is Tim Cook by Jay Somaney (Contributor)
Yes, I have heard all the good guys (long only crowd) make excuses for Apple’s terrible performance this year to date.
Yes, the market cap is too big. (It’s getting bigger for the likes of Amazon, Google GOOGL -2.30%/Alphabet, Microsoft MSFT -1.92% et al despite being “too” big as well.) That argument holds no water given what other companies have done this year and despite their own giant market caps. No market cap monitors anywhere you look. Yes, investors don’t understand Apple AAPL -2.68%. (Maybe that’s one of the issues with Apple and an Apple-specific issue.) Yes, they have this, that and the other coming down the pipeline. (So do other companies–no competitor is standing still.) Yes, Tim Cook and Eddy Cue and Jony Ive said that this is Apple’s year like they said last year was and the year before (all the while selling tens of million in stock options, if not hundreds of millions). Yes, wait until next year for an Apple TV set (now forgotten). Yes, wait until a few years for the iCar. Yes, wait for China sales to kick in and then wait for India to pick up (they are picking up already–China sales up 90% YoY and India probably 2x that). Foreign exchange is an issue–just wait till that headwind turns into a tailwind. (FX is an issue for everyone and with the Fed on a rate raising “jihad,” that FX problem/issue could worsen before getting better.) Wait until Angela Ahrendts kicks in her magic. (Seriously? She got paid almost $75 million just for her first year alone and thus far, there has been nary a peep about what she has done in return for the company since May 2014 when she joined Apple except for the fact that she has been furiously selling her stock.) Investors are mistakenly classifying Apple as a hardware company. (Then it’s the job of Apple’s management to clear the mistake.) Q3 results were very good. (They were very good only given the amount of fear-mongering and negativity that went on ahead of the results.) No one will deny that this has been a rocky year with very volatile markets, so I thought it would be a good idea to look at a few companies best associated with Apple from a cutting edge of technology, market cap and brand name awareness point of view, and compare price performance for 2015.
I thought we would take a look at various important price points starting with price to start the year, price at the height of the China scare aka “world is ending”, pre-Q3 earnings price, post-Q3 earnings price and price as of last Friday’s (11/13/15) close.
Let’s start with Facebook, led by Mark Zuckerberg, CEO and founder. The company began the year at $78/share, went down to $72/share in our last crash in August, was trading at $104/share the day before Q3 earnings were released, popped to $110 the next day and closed at $104 this past Friday. (Market cap of Facebook is $294 billion.) Let’s look at Microsoft with Satya Nadella as the head honcho, aka “Mr. Softee No More,” next. The shares began the year at $47 per share, fell to $40 per share in the August crash, were at $48 per share pre-Q3 earnings, shot up to $53/share the next day and closed on Friday at $53/share. (Market cap is $422 billion.) Next up is Google/Alphabet, led by Sundar Pichai/ Larry Page/Sergey Brin as the top triumvirate, which began the year at $530 per share, was available for $594 at the August crash lows, traded at $681/share pre-Q3 earnings, popped to $719/share post the report and closed Friday at $735/share. (Market cap of Alphabet is $509 billion.) Take Amazon, led by CEO and founder, Jeff Bezos, which began the year at $309/share, was buyable at $451/share in the August melt-down, at $564/share pre-Q3 earnings, $599/share the day after and $642/share this past Friday. (Amazon market cap is $301 billion.) Then we have Apple, led by Tim Cook. Apple began the year at $109/share, hit a low of $92/share in the August crash, was at $115/share prior to Q3 (Apple FQ4) earnings, $119/share the day after and closed on Friday at $112/share. Yes, I know we got those whopping dividends the last three quarters. (Market cap is $626 billion.) Heck let’s even compare Priceline led by Darren Huston (who?), which has got absolutely hammered since its own Q3 earnings. The company began the year at $1142/share, hit a low of $1151/share in the August melt-down, made a huge run to $1450/share prior to Q3 earnings, hammered down to $1311/share the next day and closed Friday at $1298/share. (Market cap is $65 billion.) The Nasdaq is the final one we will look at and began the year at 4727, hit a low of 4506 in the August crash, and closed at 4928 on Friday. So what do Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page & Sergey Brin have that Tim Cook does not? Let me count the ways for you:
All the guys are absolute tech geniuses, including Tim Cook, but with one exception: Tim Cook is not a Wall Street-friendly CEO and does not and can not impress Wall Street. Jeff Bezos is a master at convincing Wall Street that his “build it and they will come” is the way to go and analysts and shareholders have been absolutely lapping it up. Even Zuck, young as he is, is able to convince shareholders and the Street of his “vision.” Of course he has help from Sheryl Sandberg who is no shrinking violet either. Finally, Google/Alphabet has Ruth Porat as the CFO who is someone who has actually been a Wall Street CEO and thus knows exactly what will get shareholders/Wall Street analysts tripping over themselves to buy/issue reports with strong buys and buys with higher and higher price targets. The others under-promise and over-deliver aka UPOD while thus far Tim Cook has done the opposite-OPUD. The others have made brilliant hires in the last year or so while Tim Cook has hired Angela Ahrendts (see above) who has certainly been very, very busy-selling her stock. Google got Ruth Porat and recently promoted Sundar Pichai. Microsoft appointed Satya Nadella as the head honcho after stumbling and bumbling through the Steve Ballmer “hoot and holler” years. All these hires are seen as very shareholder- and Wall Street-friendly and that is what Tim Cook has been unable/unwilling to do. Of course, Tim Cook did give us Angela Ahrendts lest we forget. Of the above, Google/Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon still have active founders while Apple, Microsoft and Priceline do not–and the results are there for all to see. Of course, Steve Jobs’ pre-mature passing was a blow to not just Apple but to fans of technology globally and certainly no fault of Tim Cook. However, an employee of a company (like Tim Cook, Darren Huston et al) just cannot be as passionate about repaying the faith shareholders are showing the company (by being shareholders the first place) as a founder will be. Especially not “employees” that are being paid hundreds of millions of dollars to run a company and that compensation is not 100% tied to share performance. My take is if they make shareholders money the top managers make money. If not, then not/naught for them as well. All the above companies have had issues with a stronger greenback, China slowdown (heck, Facebook and Google don’t even operate directly in China) if there is one, a schizophrenic stock market here at home thanks to our Federal Reserve crusade, but have still managed to perform very well to say the least. Look, Tim Cook might be an absolute Mahatma Gandhi of a human being but he does not seem to be the right person to lead the biggest and one of the most technological savvy companies in the world.
Can you imagine where Apple would be were it not for the biggest share buyback in corporate history?
I shudder to think.
So, until things change at Apple or Tim Cook changes or shows us something meaningful or maybe makes a meaningful Wall Street-savvy hire, share performance of the biggest and probably one of the top global brands in the world more than likely could/will continue to underperform. Meanwhile Tim Cook and company will continue cashing in their tens of millions and hundreds of million worth of options that get vested and we shareholders will continue to stand by and watch passively.
Well, yours truly has chosen not to stand by nor watch passively.
Until the next article, “may the trade always be in your favor.”
(Long shares in AAPL, FB, AMZN, PCLN, GOOGL, short AAPL, PCLN, AMZN, GOOGL weeklies. No positions in Microsoft or Nazz proxies.)
The market decides how to price aapl, not TC. We dropped 40% before even when we grew faster and SJ was in charge.
Until Apple can come up with the cash to buy back more shares we will be at the mercy of the market. Much more money to be made with less shares outstanding in other companies.
Also a ton of money is being made in swing trades.
I think maket is concerned about Apple Watch and iPads. The excuse is that iPhone will stop growing and they need those other products to pick up the slack. We may have to wait 2 years before we see real traction in both products.
I still think we can get a p/e of 16 in the next 12 months. We must be patient. And yes it is frustrating to see we are only up 10% since 2012.
Once again, at the end of the week-end, as I await the resumption of trading, I find myself falling into that ever renewing hope that maybe this will be the week that people finally wake up and recognize that Apple is undervalued. The reality is that it is just not going to happen. Not this week, not next week and certainly not at the end of January 2016. Nothing has really changed much over the past few years. Whatever holds people back from buying AAPL, it is still in place and perhaps getting stronger. Back when we were enduring the Samsung FUD, it was all about how each new Samsung clone was going to kill the iPhone, or iPad or whatever. When Samsung fell apart, other FUD took it's place. Here is the reality. The 6, 6+, 6s and 6s+ did not move the stock. Nor did the watch, Apple Pay, music, or the iPadPro. Apple cannot move the stock by introducing new products no matter how successful they are.
What is worse is that fundamentals cannot move the stock. despite the unheard of success over the past 4 quarters, nothing budged. How many quarters do we need to see before we realize that something is broken, or maybe something we don't know is working, but either way, fundamentals cannot move the stock.
OK then, what about technical movement. Well sure, there is some self induced action. We drop to a fib level and we see some buying, but I cannot tell how much of this is actual behavior by unbiased buyers and sellers and how much is self fulfilling movement by those who follow the tech theories.
So what does move the stock? The only behavior I have observed consistently over the past several years is the lemming like behavior of unsophisticated retail investors trying to get rich quick. As evidence, I offer the Ichan induced movement when we were at 420 and the post split rise from 60 to 100. These are not predictable movements. These are events that occur and the lemmings react.
I have done well with Apple, and I wish it weren't so, but investing in Apple is a crap shoot. There is NO LOGICAL movement. If you feel like you must invest for whatever reason, let me suggest the following strategy. decide how much you want to make first. Make a commitment to yourself that when the stock has risen to that level, you will get out. no matter what, you are going to sell when it hits that level. I don't have any advice on where to set your exit, but you MUST set one. Then sell covered calls against your stock at your exit price and collect your premium. Never buy options. Buying options means that you have an idea where the price will go and you don't for the above reasons. Once you have sold the calls, turn off the computer and go outside. You are done. The FUDsters are working for you and you cannot lose. Buybacks have the downside covered. Relax.
OK, there. I feel better. Have a great week.
All models are wrong, some are useful--- George E.P. Box
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May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
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Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
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Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5