Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 14:13:02 GMT -8
GM estimates, anyone? Oppenheimer guided to 38.5% IIRC. Repost from Intraday: We gotta get discussing on the earnings thread! There's only about a week to go! My mental blender analysis puts GM at 42%, which could well be high. But surveying the landscape, the only product that could really impact GM is iPhone 5 - since all the other products are no longer "as" new (particularly iPhone 4S), I didn't see margin mix being affected unless there's millions more iPads sold and millions less iPhones sold. Forex, whatever - it doesn't seem to be a big deal most quarters. So what about iPhone 5 GM? New casing, some redesigned components, A6 chip probably costs a few bucks more, battery mostly the same, camera probably costs about the same, no change in flash capacities (a plus for margins)...R&D expenses are OpEx, not GM-related... GM will likely start out lower, but 500, 1000 basis points lower? Not seeing it. Finally, the prior-year compare. GM was 40.2% on pretty slow iPhone unit growth. I'm not seeing a convincing case for a year-to-year decline. Right now I have it at a 80 basis point drop sequentially. Prove me wrong, Oppenheimer.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 17:23:44 GMT -8
Thanks all for the great replies on Q3 GMs. I was leaning towards the upper 43 range. Tweaked all my numbers earlier today and am happy with the number I'm seeing. That's well over 400 basis points above guidance. What's your thinking?
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Post by prazan on Oct 17, 2012 18:08:37 GMT -8
I worked up most of these numbers before I changed professions to diaper changer. At that time I had good reasons for each but now can't remember any of them. You'll just have to trust me. I once had a brain. Not that it helps in a crapshoot game like this.
REVENUES: $38.8 B
UNITS MAC 5,172 IPOD 5,685 IPHONE 26,220 IPAD 19,021
GM: 40.5% EPS: $9.75
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Post by chasmac on Oct 17, 2012 18:16:58 GMT -8
Thanks all for the great replies on Q3 GMs. I was leaning towards the upper 43 range. Tweaked all my numbers earlier today and am happy with the number I'm seeing. That's well over 400 basis points above guidance. What's your thinking? Meds? Have been really sick, maybe I need to go to rehab before I post numbers!
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 18:27:07 GMT -8
I worked up most of these numbers before I changed professions to diaper changer. At that time I had good reasons for each but now can't remember any of them. You'll just have to trust me. I once had a brain. Not that it helps in a crapshoot game like this. REVENUES: $38.8 B UNITS MAC 5,172 IPOD 5,685 IPHONE 26,220 IPAD 19,021 GM: 40.5% EPS: $9.75 Great numbers IMO, would be fine by WS I believe.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 18, 2012 6:10:36 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 6:18:53 GMT -8
I'd be relieved to see the average number achieved. I'm pessimistic for this quarter, optimistic for next.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 11:37:03 GMT -8
I've moved up EPS to $9.40 for now. I think Apple probably sold at least 25.5M iPhones (call it 50% YOY growth), and iPhone 4S apparently hung in there pretty well despite all the iPhone 5 rumors (only based on Verizon, though)
Other numbers: Revs $36.97B Net Inc $ 8.943B GM 42% iPad 19.75M Mac 5.15M iPod 5.3M OpEx Ratio 10% Tax rate 25.25%
I think I still have a small margin of conservatism baked in, given the 1% drop in net profit margin in those projections (24.2% vs. 25.2% actual in Q3 2012 IIRC).
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 18, 2012 11:53:31 GMT -8
The Verizon number has moved my WAG from $9.62 to $9.65.
I'm close to Mav on most numbers....phones a bit higher...
42% GM is kind of a head scratcher...could be high or low. I think a bit low
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 12:00:39 GMT -8
It's a little tough, because Oppenheimer guided very low - 38.5%
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Post by prazan on Oct 18, 2012 12:31:57 GMT -8
As noted in the daily thread, the question to me is whether or not the 10% decline in 4/4s sales from Q3 to Q4 is predictive of the entire market. If yes, then 23 million units would have been sold. If the 650K iPhone 5 units sold by VZ is predictive of their 10% market share WW last Q (2.7 million of 26 million), then add about 6.5 million iPhone 5 units to this.
I don't think the results are entirely predictive, but they make me more bullish than before. Rather than being fearful that sales of 4s dropped through the floor, I'm now hopeful that they held steadier than expected.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 13:13:23 GMT -8
Not sure how you can be so high with the Macs. Old line and Apple has only done 5.1 mil Macs once. I am in the 4.7 range.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 13:16:08 GMT -8
As noted in the daily thread, the question to me is whether or not the 10% decline in 4/4s sales from Q3 to Q4 is predictive of the entire market. If yes, then 23 million units would have been sold. If the 650K iPhone 5 units sold by VZ is predictive of their 10% market share WW last Q (2.7 million of 26 million), then add about 6.5 million iPhone 5 units to this. I don't think the results are entirely predictive, but they make me more bullish than before. Rather than being fearful that sales of 4s dropped through the floor, I'm now hopeful that they held steadier than expected. Yeah, but then we get into sell-through and ending channel inventory. Still not going over 25-26 on the iphone.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 13:16:52 GMT -8
I'm thinking Mac did grow YOY just a bit. Could be wrong.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 13:21:08 GMT -8
This site has the WS number at 8.9 and the whisper number was posted yesterday as being 10.20. I just don't get that whisper number. if that were the case I would think we would be $50 higher. Its all BS now, WS does what they want regardless of the numbers.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 13:24:39 GMT -8
I'm thinking Mac did grow YOY just a bit. Could be wrong. I hope you are right, but I don't see how. The ipad has to be having an impact on the Macs and the refresh did not include iMacs. Months ago I was thinking October was going to be Apple's break-out qtr, now I am scared to death.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 13:25:30 GMT -8
That idiot whisper number is very worrisome. It's kind of a big consideration in the "why NOT to play earnings" column.
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Post by prazan on Oct 18, 2012 17:43:09 GMT -8
Not sure how you can be so high with the Macs. Old line and Apple has only done 5.1 mil Macs once. I am in the 4.7 range. I never discount the possibility that I'm wrong. At last count, portables were 75% of the unit market for Macs. I suspect the Air continues to sell well enough. The Macbook family was refreshed this Q, with the retina display model showing 3-4 week delays in order fulfillment. So I figure that segment is growing more than the iMac segment is slowing.
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Post by prazan on Oct 18, 2012 17:48:44 GMT -8
This site has the WS number at 8.9 and the whisper number was posted yesterday as being 10.20. I just don't get that whisper number. if that were the case I would think we would be $50 higher. Its all BS now, WS does what they want regardless of the numbers. I'm not sure anyone pays attention to this site. Any idiot can post an estimate and be included in the calculations. I suspect this site might better reflect what folks are considering the whisper number: www.whispernumber.com/whisper.jsp?ticker=aapl
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 17:49:01 GMT -8
I think MB was referring to both of us, since we're the only two IIRC who've posted Mac units, or at least of over 5M.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 17:49:31 GMT -8
prazan - I HATE that crap unaccountable site.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 18:02:39 GMT -8
I think MB was referring to both of us, since we're the only two IIRC who've posted Mac units, or at least of over 5M. 5.19 M
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 18:03:52 GMT -8
Make that three or more, then.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 18:22:40 GMT -8
Make that three or more, then. Yep, I attacked all three of you at the same time, so it's not personal, . Lol. The YOY compare is 4.8/9 I believe, so the 5.19 number is not outrageous or anything, it's just the iPad has had an impact. Any growth will be great.
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Post by prazan on Oct 18, 2012 18:28:27 GMT -8
prazan - I HATE that crap unaccountable site. Which crap unaccountable site, whispernumber or the other one? Or some other? There are so many crap unaccountable sites to choose from.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 18:38:28 GMT -8
I'm sure earning*whisper* is related somehow.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 19, 2012 0:24:29 GMT -8
I updated my Q4 numbers:
EPS: $9.14 Rev: $37,010 mil.
Unit Sales (x ASP): iPhones: 27,000,000 (x 630) iPads: 18,500,000 (x 530) iPods: 5,800,000 (x 150) Mac Desktops: 1,100,000 (x 1,250) Mac Portables: 3,600,000 (x 1,200) Total Mac: 4,700,000 (x 1,212) GM: 41.0% OpEx: 3,650 OI&E: 225 Tax Rate: 25.75% Outstanding Shares: 954
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2012 0:27:36 GMT -8
I updated my Q4 numbers: EPS: $9.14 Rev: $37,010 Unit Sales (x ASP): iPhones: 27,000,000 (x 630) iPads: 18,500,000 (x 530) iPods: 5,800,000 (x 150) Mac Desktops: 1,100,000 (x 1,250) Mac Portables: 3,600,000 (x 1,200) Total Mac: 4,700,000 (x 1,212) GM: 41.0% OpEx: 3,650 OI&E: 225 Tax Rate: 25.75% Outstanding Shares: 954 I'm completely at a loss with trying to predict the iPad number. Strangely, I think the iPhone 5 may have cannibalised some consumer dollars that may have gone to the iPad 3 (call me crazy I know).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 9:05:19 GMT -8
Hmm. 1% difference in GM makes a 25 cent difference in EPS? My numbers are very similar, is why.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 19, 2012 9:17:47 GMT -8
Q2 and Q3 ASP
Mac 1262 - 1227 iPhone 647 - 624 iPad 558 - 538 iPod 157 - 157 (no change)
Q3 GM = 42.8 %
For Q4:
I raised ASP for iPhone and iPad a notch. I probably raised Mac ASP too high.
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