Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 20:28:51 GMT -8
I will continue to hold the line on my iPhone estimate at around 25.5M iPhones (basically no growth sequentially, a slight downtick) until I get more evidence (I guess from AT&T and Sprint) that Apple had enough initial iPhone 5 supply, _and_ iPhone 4S continued to hang in there despite all the rumors and sales pauses.
$10+ EPS will be tough without iPhone's help.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 6:26:00 GMT -8
I will continue to hold the line on my iPhone estimate at around 25.5M iPhones (basically no growth sequentially, a slight downtick) until I get more evidence (I guess from AT&T and Sprint) that Apple had enough initial iPhone 5 supply, _and_ iPhone 4S continued to hang in there despite all the rumors and sales pauses. $10+ EPS will be tough without iPhone's help. Agree Mav, I am concerned about beat last qtr's number. (No easy task, just look at last year). Using that same compare, Apple would come in at a level that would depress the stock all Fall. The WS consensus is below $9, I think they are right for the second qtr in a row. I am doubly concerned about guidance. I can't ever remember being this shaken.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 9:51:20 GMT -8
I don't see a $9 EPS issue unless iPad disappoints. That would worry me more than iPhone, because iPad, fast-growing as it is, isn't "supposed to" cool down in sales much at this point in its life cycle from what admittedly little I can gather from the iPad media/analyst "narrative".
Honestly, I wondered about iPad's ultimate market size from the beginning. It is decidedly not a smartphone-size market til it proves otherwise. The only other compare is the PC market. Tablets are a whole new world (since exactly no one sold anything in any volume that mattered until iPad).
If AAPL can keep sequential sales stable or better, the numbers should be OK.
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Post by roni on Oct 21, 2012 12:01:09 GMT -8
4.8 million Macs 28 million iPhones 20.5 million iPads
42.5% GM
39.25 billion revs 10.68 eps
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 12:35:35 GMT -8
Questions: how many iPhone 5 sales do you project?
iPad: any concerns about iPad mini sales pause, or slowing iPad growth? (Personally I think Apple's timing of the iPad mini is perfect - boosts iPad's momentum well before any concerns that iPad is slowing down.)
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Post by roni on Oct 21, 2012 12:39:20 GMT -8
Questions: how many iPhone 5 sales do you project? iPad: any concerns about iPad mini sales pause, or slowing iPad growth? (Personally I think Apple's timing of the iPad mini is perfect - boosts iPad's momentum well before any concerns that iPad is slowing down.) 8-10 million Do you mean concerns about the iPad mini rumors slowing sales of the iPad in Q4?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 12:50:40 GMT -8
Yep. Only mention it because someone else here (can't remember who) got me thinking a little about that (which is a good thing).
8-10M sounds like a good range. It's not like Apple stopped selling after the initial 5M and had nothing for the second-stage launch.
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Post by machouse on Oct 23, 2012 9:43:56 GMT -8
100 million ipads sold post Q4 equates to about 13.5 for last quarter. Estimates to high by most for iPad
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 10:12:33 GMT -8
Cute iPad mini ad.
But as far as trading? Only my rusty 2 cents, but I'm staying away from AAPL for a little while. I'll do my best to wait until after earnings.
iPad sales pause from now 'til around Novemberish could make for a rougher fiscal Q1 2013 than expected. iPhone will have to carry the load.
Apple has done what it needed to keep its product line sharp, which is great. But there may be a sales penalty for this kind of concentrated product refresh. Better for the company, might pressure the stock.
I expect fiscal Q2 2013 to be a better-looking quarter, relatively speaking.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 23, 2012 10:28:30 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 10:35:10 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 11:01:27 GMT -8
I updated my Q4 numbers: EPS: $9.14 Rev: $37,010 Unit Sales (x ASP): iPhones: 27,000,000 (x 630) iPads: 18,500,000 (x 530) iPods: 5,800,000 (x 150) Mac Desktops: 1,100,000 (x 1,250) Mac Portables: 3,600,000 (x 1,200) Total Mac: 4,700,000 (x 1,212) GM: 41.0% OpEx: 3,650 OI&E: 225 Tax Rate: 25.75% Outstanding Shares: 954 I'm completely at a loss with trying to predict the iPad number. Strangely, I think the iPhone 5 may have cannibalised some consumer dollars that may have gone to the iPad 3 (call me crazy I know). Gah - damn you iPad sales! We looking at a sub $9 eps quarter now....
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Post by machouse on Oct 23, 2012 11:05:10 GMT -8
Could ipad miss be attributed to channel reduction? I didn't catch when the 4th generation starts, but wouldn't third generation production need to slow?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 11:16:50 GMT -8
Could ipad miss be attributed to channel reduction? I didn't catch when the 4th generation starts, but wouldn't third generation production need to slow? Yes, channel had to be drawn down. The new,new ipad has really confused me. Why? and why now?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 23, 2012 11:19:29 GMT -8
I'm thinking its all about 1) Lightning Connector and 2) scooping up any customers are thinking of delaying until spring and 3) possibly saving money on parts in conjunction with iPad mini. #3 is a stretch for sure.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 11:26:25 GMT -8
I'm thinking its all about 1) Lightning Connector and 2) scooping up any customers are thinking of delaying until spring and 3) possibly saving money on parts in conjunction with iPad mini. #3 is a stretch for sure. I don't see the waiting until Spring with Christmas 2 months away. The connector is not even an issue to me.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 11:29:04 GMT -8
Could ipad miss be attributed to channel reduction? I didn't catch when the 4th generation starts, but wouldn't third generation production need to slow? Yes, channel had to be drawn down. The new,new ipad has really confused me. Why? and why now? 2 possibilities I can think of are to combat Microsoft surface RT (which now looks even more pathetic), or that if this is what the iPad 4 was going to look like in March (a processor bump and new connector), then that would have been ridiculous to have an entire event for - better to get it out now, and launch a significantly better iPad 5 next October (thinner, lighter, new features etc).
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 11:42:35 GMT -8
My range is 13.01 to 14.84 depending on when during "two weeks ago" it hit 100M.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 11:55:33 GMT -8
My range is 13.01 to 14.84 depending on when during "two weeks ago" it hit 100M. I am going to bite my lip until Thursday. Looks like a follow up to last October.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 23, 2012 12:02:58 GMT -8
so- the street # to beat will definitely come down now, right? I mean Apple guided 7.65, and while they usually are very conservative, analysts were wayy over their target. If estimates come down from 9.xx to 8.50 or something, and Apple beats the street, will it do any good?
This is the one thing I don't understand yet. How earnings results directly impact the instant stock price, since the price pre-earnings could have been way inflated from a rally, or way down due to something like this. What normalizes it all?
I guess I'm trying to say, if S&P rallied today or if Apple was still up at 670+, vs at 610, going into earnings... and earnings came out at X... would Apple trade at the same # the next day, regardless of if it was at 670 or 610, the day before?
My obvious answer is no, but my question is, fundamentally, shouldn't it?
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 12:17:57 GMT -8
so- the street # to beat will definitely come down now, right? I mean Apple guided 7.65, and while they usually are very conservative, analysts were wayy over their target. If estimates come down from 9.xx to 8.50 or something, and Apple beats the street, will it do any good? This is the one thing I don't understand yet. How earnings results directly impact the instant stock price, since the price pre-earnings could have been way inflated from a rally, or way down due to something like this. What normalizes it all? I guess I'm trying to say, if S&P rallied today or if Apple was still up at 670+, vs at 610, going into earnings... and earnings came out at X... would Apple trade at the same # the next day, regardless of if it was at 670 or 610, the day before? My obvious answer is no, but my question is, fundamentally, shouldn't it? Analysts' estimates are 8.84 on average. I'm modeling 0.56 off their estimates at the most. Indie EPS numbers stand to take a bigger hit. Braeburn had a little over 19M iPads being sold on average versus WS's 17.6M. As for your other questions, it's best not to even think about that stuff. If the market were rational, we'd never make losing trades.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 12:18:17 GMT -8
good questions, to dazed to compute. Apple guided to 7ish last qtr and came in at 9.30. This qtr's guidance was higher so expectations were higher. Kind of hard to even come close to that number when the ipad is well below last qtr's. The YOY is 7.05, so anything over $9 we can live to fight another day. It
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 23, 2012 16:39:50 GMT -8
Will Braeburn modify before Thursday or are their numbers final numbers already?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 23, 2012 16:56:35 GMT -8
The Braeburn public style is published a few weeks ahead of Wall Street analysts with followup after the earnings release, as well as for private discussion. The day to day discussions are pretty much the same as here, except not about short-term trading.
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Post by bernard on Oct 24, 2012 5:35:43 GMT -8
WTF
Did they just discover the IPhone cures cancer?
Up over 11!!!!!
Thank God. Poppa is going to need a heart transplant when this week is over.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 24, 2012 6:00:15 GMT -8
Color me not impressed with overall earnings this quarter. Or next.
I've reduced estimates in Mac sales by 700 K.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 6:16:14 GMT -8
iPhone will turn in OK numbers I suspect. Safely over 25M.
The "everything else" and "what next", I have no idea. Sticking to $9.40 though I think it may be high due to iPad possibly being a bit light.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 24, 2012 10:13:41 GMT -8
Revised Q4 Estimate
Mac 5.0 iPod 4.5 iPhone 26.3 iPad 14.0
Gross Revenue 35.2 B EPS $ 8.90
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 18:44:19 GMT -8
Good number. Conservative on iPad but not a bad idea considering.
iPad growth on that scale would be worrisome to WS though.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 19:46:59 GMT -8
Good number. Conservative on iPad but not a bad idea considering. iPad growth on that scale would be worrisome to WS though. You have talked about the growth in ipad Mav. I think you are reading it wrong. Apple had to reduce channel. That pesky sell through and channel dilemma. Apple booked sales in the last qtr that only reached peoples hands in Q4. They basically stopped selling the darn things to work through this. This is an easy transition and the channel will need to be filled for the qtr. I fully expect that Apple plans to sell 20 million ipads for the Christmas qtr. Probably close to 7 million ipad mini's. We will know for sure tomorrow. The channel will be explained.
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