Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 21:09:13 GMT -8
Well, thanks for participating everyone!
Hope to have a more robust discussion for the next quarter!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 21:11:10 GMT -8
Good number. Conservative on iPad but not a bad idea considering. iPad growth on that scale would be worrisome to WS though. You have talked about the growth in ipad Mav. I think you are reading it wrong. Apple had to reduce channel. That pesky sell through and channel dilemma. Apple booked sales in the last qtr that only reached peoples hands in Q4. They basically stopped selling the darn things to work through this. This is an easy transition and the channel will need to be filled for the qtr. I fully expect that Apple plans to sell 20 million ipads for the Christmas qtr. Probably close to 7 million ipad mini's. We will know for sure tomorrow. The channel will be explained. That would help, because I don't think some of us are all that up on what the hell channel fill means in terms of true sell through to end consumers. I know a lot of you are, but I'm not. I've always wondered what the max market size for tablets is, and whether growth rates are as "sustainable" as smartphones have been. 27M total iPads for the holiday quarter would be a good number.
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 25, 2012 4:36:39 GMT -8
You have talked about the growth in ipad Mav. I think you are reading it wrong. Apple had to reduce channel. That pesky sell through and channel dilemma. Apple booked sales in the last qtr that only reached peoples hands in Q4. They basically stopped selling the darn things to work through this. This is an easy transition and the channel will need to be filled for the qtr. I fully expect that Apple plans to sell 20 million ipads for the Christmas qtr. Probably close to 7 million ipad mini's. We will know for sure tomorrow. The channel will be explained. This does sound reasonable. I wish I understood the channel fill aspect better. So they booked sales that went to outlets earlier in Q3, then cut the supply (channel fill) off to wait for release of the new iPad and the mini? And this would reduce the Q4 sales number because they wait until after release to replenish the channel. Robert at Braeburn should be all over this.
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Post by machouse on Oct 25, 2012 5:24:39 GMT -8
Revenue $38.5 EPS $10.59 Mac 5.1 Iphone 26.5 Ipad 20 REVISED REVENUE $37 EPS $10.03 IPHONE 29.5 IPAD 14.6
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 6:02:29 GMT -8
so- the street # to beat will definitely come down now, right? I mean Apple guided 7.65, and while they usually are very conservative, analysts were wayy over their target. If estimates come down from 9.xx to 8.50 or something, and Apple beats the street, will it do any good? This is the one thing I don't understand yet. How earnings results directly impact the instant stock price, since the price pre-earnings could have been way inflated from a rally, or way down due to something like this. What normalizes it all? I guess I'm trying to say, if S&P rallied today or if Apple was still up at 670+, vs at 610, going into earnings... and earnings came out at X... would Apple trade at the same # the next day, regardless of if it was at 670 or 610, the day before? My obvious answer is no, but my question is, fundamentally, shouldn't it? Analysts' estimates are 8.84 on average. I'm modeling 0.56 off their estimates at the most. Indie EPS numbers stand to take a bigger hit. Braeburn had a little over 19M iPads being sold on average versus WS's 17.6M. As for your other questions, it's best not to even think about that stuff. If the market were rational, we'd never make losing trades. Why do people quote Braeburn like they matter? I hate to say it, but DT has proven to be pretty poor when it comes to making any accurate estimates and isn't he the leader of the group? Don't get me wrong, DT is a great forum moderator and is great at gathering data on his site but when it comes to actual analysis.....
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 6:02:58 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Oct 25, 2012 6:21:06 GMT -8
Why do people quote Braeburn like they matter? I hate to say it, but DT has proven to be pretty poor when it comes to making any accurate estimates and isn't he the leader of the group? Don't get me wrong, DT is a great forum moderator and is great at gathering data on his site but when it comes to actual analysis..... I said kind of the same thing over on the intraday. We should not be putting much faith in amateur analysis. It is almost fatally handicapped in my view.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 6:40:28 GMT -8
Analysts' estimates are 8.84 on average. I'm modeling 0.56 off their estimates at the most. Indie EPS numbers stand to take a bigger hit. Braeburn had a little over 19M iPads being sold on average versus WS's 17.6M. As for your other questions, it's best not to even think about that stuff. If the market were rational, we'd never make losing trades. Why do people quote Braeburn like they matter? I hate to say it, but DT has proven to be pretty poor when it comes to making any accurate estimates and isn't he the leader of the group? Don't get me wrong, DT is a great forum moderator and is great at gathering data on his site but when it comes to actual analysis..... The theory is that the benefit derives the collective wisdom of the group, not individuals, and forcing people to present a single estimate of all the key components of the earnings. Give numbers and tell why you choose those numbers. Don't be like Katy Huberty and give scenarios that are as widely ranging as a roulette spin. Also, more than a few of us are in Braeburn and AFB at the same time. DT created the forum and coordinates some aspects of the forum such as creating certain threads. Some threads are more structured and are presented to the public. That forum as well as new AFB was created in part because of lack of support from old forum. Overall, I see little difference in overall goals of AFB and Braeburn. Accurate information for the benefit of members. Internal content and formality are the differences. Finally, of the past 9 quarters, I've been in the top 3 of amateur analysts 3 times for EPS. tyvm
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 7:45:32 GMT -8
Amateurs are amateurs, but that doesn't make the exercise meaningless by any means. The learning experience just going through the numbers on one's own is priceless.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 7:47:36 GMT -8
Presented to the public? Well, certain articles, but not any part of the forum as I recall.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 25, 2012 7:49:24 GMT -8
Amateurs are amateurs, but that doesn't make the exercise meaningless by any means. The learning experience just going through the numbers on one's own is priceless. True, but in the eyes of the beholder we have 50 shades of pointlessness or pointmoreness (I know that this is not a real word, but you get the idea).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 7:52:25 GMT -8
Shrug. All I care about it how close to the mark _I_ am, in a way. If nothing else, you get a good education on the basics. Required reading for serious AAPL longs.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 8:20:58 GMT -8
Presented to the public? Well, certain articles, but not any part of the forum as I recall. Right. Forum is not public. The main public parts are AAPL target prices and Earnings estimates. PostsAtEventide is an overlapping resource.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 25, 2012 11:52:11 GMT -8
I think TC gave us a clue with the iPad #s. Hope I'm wrong.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 12:01:39 GMT -8
Chas , your main numbers are comparable to mine except for gross margin and Mac ASP. I'm at 41.5 and 1260 respectively.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 25, 2012 12:06:10 GMT -8
Chas , your main numbers are comparable to mine except for gross margin and Mac ASP. I'm at 41.5 and 1260 respectively. Hope I'm wrong!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2012 14:56:14 GMT -8
Going through the information I have at the moment, this was a total revenue miss of gargantuan size.
Nobody should be beating anybody (especially themselves) up for their FQ4/2012 estimates. You weren't wrong. Apple failed to deliver, and there is no sugar coating it.
All the theorizing about how we could miss by so much is pointless, if you don't first consider that Apple flopped.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 27, 2012 15:25:14 GMT -8
The gross margin is the most confounding to me. The iPad miss is 2nd.
Oh wait, elephant in the room. iPhone sales dropped like a rock and its unclear if Apple did anything about the sales drop --> that is, they were concentrating on the art of engineering iPhone 5.
Mac sales were the most stable of the big components and is certainly a bright spot for future revenues.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 1:18:41 GMT -8
The gross margin is the most confounding to me. The iPad miss is 2nd. Oh wait, elephant in the room. iPhone sales dropped like a rock and its unclear if Apple did anything about the sales drop --> that is, they were concentrating on the art of engineering iPhone 5. Mac sales were the most stable of the big components and is certainly a bright spot for future revenues. Meh - the quarter was mostly affected by the new iPad 4th gen launch - without that apple would have shipped a few million extra into the channel and we would have had a good $9+ quarter (actual iPad sales were up 44%).
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 28, 2012 6:10:39 GMT -8
The gross margin is the most confounding to me. The iPad miss is 2nd. Oh wait, elephant in the room. iPhone sales dropped like a rock and its unclear if Apple did anything about the sales drop --> that is, they were concentrating on the art of engineering iPhone 5. Mac sales were the most stable of the big components and is certainly a bright spot for future revenues. Meh - the quarter was mostly affected by the new iPad 4th gen launch - without that apple would have shipped a few million extra into the channel and we would have had a good $9+ quarter (actual iPad sales were up 44%). I think the IPad mini had more to do with the less than hoped for IPad 2/3 sales than the IPad 4.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 28, 2012 6:47:22 GMT -8
Going through the information I have at the moment, this was a total revenue miss of gargantuan size.Nobody should be beating anybody (especially themselves) up for their FQ4/2012 estimates. You weren't wrong. Apple failed to deliver, and there is no sugar coating it. All the theorizing about how we could miss by so much is pointless, if you don't first consider that Apple flopped. I don't understand this logic at all. Forecasts need to be measured against what the company did, not against what someone thinks they should have achieved. I think what we are seeing here shows the reality of independent analyst forecasts. Without inside knowledge, they are just educated guesses. A flop when measured against someones guess at what they should have achieved is not a flop in my books. Please tell me why this is off-base.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 28, 2012 8:49:31 GMT -8
Going through the information I have at the moment, this was a total revenue miss of gargantuan size.Nobody should be beating anybody (especially themselves) up for their FQ4/2012 estimates. You weren't wrong. Apple failed to deliver, and there is no sugar coating it. All the theorizing about how we could miss by so much is pointless, if you don't first consider that Apple flopped. I don't understand this logic at all. Forecasts need to be measured against what the company did, not against what someone thinks they should have achieved. I think what we are seeing here shows the reality of independent analyst forecasts. Without inside knowledge, they are just educated guesses. A flop when measured against someones guess at what they should have achieved is not a flop in my books. Please tell me why this is off-base. I agree. We're all throwing darts while blindfolded. I know Gregg has beliefs that Apple has its own internal numbers it looks to hit each quarter. While that might be, and most likely is entirely true, I think it's difficult to compare today to the past given what appears to be a change in how PO guides to future revenue and income. Or you could hold the belief that the last two, maybe even three quarters have been major misses. I don't find that to be true. Apple has grown too big to make reliable predictions of income on a consistent basis.
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Post by anthonytsai on Oct 28, 2012 15:52:39 GMT -8
I don't understand this logic at all. Forecasts need to be measured against what the company did, not against what someone thinks they should have achieved. I think what we are seeing here shows the reality of independent analyst forecasts. Without inside knowledge, they are just educated guesses. A flop when measured against someones guess at what they should have achieved is not a flop in my books. Please tell me why this is off-base. I agree. We're all throwing darts while blindfolded. I know Gregg has beliefs that Apple has its own internal numbers it looks to hit each quarter. While that might be, and most likely is entirely true, I think it's difficult to compare today to the past given what appears to be a change in how PO guides to future revenue and income. Or you could hold the belief that the last two, maybe even three quarters have been major misses. I don't find that to be true. Apple has grown too big to make reliable predictions of income on a consistent basis. Apple Revenue ChartAs much as people as people want to believe fundamentals is a science, it isn't but sometimes lookin at a chart helps. I think the chart should be zeroed so you can better see the seasonality. To me the iPad miss was no surprise. When you look at the chart it was better than I expected compared to last year. I definitely see a huge boost in revenue with the big product refresh before Xmas. I think China is what made Apple beat expectations in the past. With no China Mobile deal and Lenovo taking the top spot also, I can see why Apple has not grown as fast as in the past with China but I am happy that they will be selling in Dec which is why I am betting more for this quarter. I am still a "law of large numbers" believer so I am by no means a blind Apple bull. You FA guys need to factor in product refreshes, China, etc. into your formulas and knowing when to factor in an event fundamentally. Product refreshes will be a big deal next year with earnings growth. I personally think it is a mistake to lump so many new products right before Xmas because they can't make them fast enough to maximize profits. I can already see iPad becoming the next iPhone as far as revenue growth also from the chart and knowing that they hit the $300 sweetspot for mainstream purchases.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 28, 2012 17:10:30 GMT -8
There WAS one area of concern - iPad (though "real" sales were better than "reported" - sell through only number vs. including channel fill). I'll have to keep tracking that. If you believe the market "narrative", the tablet market should not be slowing down that much on the growth curve. Uh, what I meant to say was , iPhone apparently outgrowing iPad YOY was surprising. It "shouldn't" be all that close. Otherwise? No problems. I love Apple's organic "go for share" strategy - it has more than enough GM to reduce it on its own terms. The shortsighted see the poorer numbers near-term. I see the longer-term benefits of smart investments, burning a little extra margin to deny the profit umbrella, securing the company's future, all that good stuff.
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