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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 10:17:24 GMT -8
low of the day. 620. now 617-618. As far as I know, we are looking at dead cat bounce. Yep, that is what yesterday was, a stinky old dead cat. Today we are digging the hole for the cat.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 23, 2012 10:19:38 GMT -8
Those that were trashing Huberty last week, may want to reconsider. She projected 15M iPads, which is looking pretty damn close right now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 10:20:21 GMT -8
Only my rusty 2 cents, but I'll try to "stay away" from AAPL for a little while (aside from the common and small options I already have). I'll do my best to wait until after earnings to start trading AAPL again, setting up longer-term trades, etc.
iPad sales pause from now 'til around Novemberish could make for a rougher fiscal Q1 2013 than expected. iPhone will have to carry the load.
Apple has done what it needed to keep its product line sharp, which is great. But there may be a sales penalty for this kind of concentrated product refresh. This will pay off for Apple in the longer-run, but could well keep the stock pressured.
I expect fiscal Q2 2013 to be a better-looking quarter, relatively speaking.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 23, 2012 10:20:50 GMT -8
I don't believe Apple will be able to give guidance on the iPad mini since it will not be able to be ordered until Friday. One thing has nothing to do with the other.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 10:21:22 GMT -8
In fairness, Huberty has only recently become "right".
Now that Apple is on a slower-growth trajectory, Huberty's predictions are already set up along those lines, so...
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 23, 2012 10:21:28 GMT -8
Aesthetically and for price, new iMac is a winner. I'd get one if I didn't already have a good iMac.
Same thing for MacBook 13" Pro.
iPad Mini $ 329. I like the price better than $ 299.
iPad sales for the quarter ? not good.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 23, 2012 10:24:11 GMT -8
I don't believe Apple will be able to give guidance on the iPad mini since it will not be able to be ordered until Friday. One thing has nothing to do with the other. Right. Of course mini sales will be included in guidance, they're certainly not going to just leave out a major new product. But it does mean that they will have to calculate that guidance without the benefit of any actual sales data.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 10:25:16 GMT -8
The reaction to $329 is just stupid. We all knew that was coming. Sure, we couldn't be 100% positive on the price, but the rumors have been steady and from reliable sources. I need to start trading these disappointments. It's too damn predictable.
And Amazon shoots up because why? Because they're going to maybe sell more Kindles at zero to negative margin? Give me a break.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 23, 2012 10:26:56 GMT -8
And Amazon shoots up because why? Because they're going to maybe sell more Kindles at zero to negative margin? Give me a break. Of course! They make it up on volume!
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mark
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Post by mark on Oct 23, 2012 10:28:15 GMT -8
Fusion drive .... can it propel us into space? :-)
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 10:29:12 GMT -8
OK, here is what we know. AAPL's price has fallen since the iphone number which was towards the end of the qtr. Insiders knew of the weak ipad quarter and have jumped off the bus. I question now if $9 EPS will be attainable. This is going to be a long Fall until January earnings. I am truly scared as to what kind of guidance Apple is going to give for the 1st qtr.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 23, 2012 10:29:25 GMT -8
I feel like I'm in the Infinity Blade Apple Event with all these camera moves. What a gorgeous theatre. cambrose, it is a beautiful theatre. My wife and I are there several times a year for Opera San Jose and it's impressive every time. Check out some of the photos of it at this site: operasj.org/about-us/california-theatre/
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Post by rlo on Oct 23, 2012 10:32:02 GMT -8
How stretched is the supply chain at this point?
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Post by jeffi on Oct 23, 2012 10:32:33 GMT -8
AAPL drops... Manipulation!
No... Opportunity!
So many new products... Same high margins!
Holiday season will be incredible. Stores will be packed even more so than before.
So many new products I want.
Just got the new iphone5. So much more impressed than I expected.
Low valuation. This quarter does NOT matter.
Buying down here, even if not the bottom will not matter 3- 6 months out.
Wow... I'm excited. Certainly not worried.
Nothing has changed with the Apple story, other than it's more compelling than yesterday.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 10:33:09 GMT -8
And Amazon shoots up because why? Because they're going to maybe sell more Kindles at zero to negative margin? Give me a break. Of course! They make it up on volume! This is not about AMZN giving away their tablets, it is that Apple has left the low hanging fruit for AMZN and Google to fight over. Their model is about selling content, not the device. Undercutting on price hurts manufacturers (Apple) which benefits them (A&G) in the long run.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 10:33:39 GMT -8
OK, here is what we know. AAPL's price has fallen since the iphone number which was towards the end of the qtr. Insiders knew of the weak ipad quarter and have jumped off the bus. I question now if $9 EPS will be attainable. This is going to be a long Fall until January earnings. I am truly scared as to what kind of guidance Apple is going to give for the 1st qtr. Zaky says it's a small hit to EPS, but I think it could shave $1 off. Maybe more.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 23, 2012 10:35:02 GMT -8
I'm more in agreement with MB than Jeffi, sry to say. I sense market languishing until products start shipping. iMac sales will fall for Q1. Basically, they are frozen.
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Post by prazan on Oct 23, 2012 10:37:33 GMT -8
I agree that $10 looks out of the question, but I think we'll hold $9, based on my projections, which have been reasonably conservative. But we might not hold it by much.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 23, 2012 10:39:19 GMT -8
Now I'm pissed I didn't unload my January BCSs yesterday. Didn't see this iPad miss coming. Especially today.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Oct 23, 2012 10:40:09 GMT -8
OK, so the iPad mini is a reality, amazing new MACs, an iPad update nobody was expecting and we drop 15 points. Man am I glad they didn't announce an iTV!!! We would have lost 50.
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Post by jeffi on Oct 23, 2012 10:40:19 GMT -8
The race to the bottom low priced tablets have not had real traction against the iPad. The iPad mini, at a lower price only makes it more difficult for the competition. Apple has always offered the best products at a premium price. That's their business model and it's worked better than any other model in hardware. More of the same will lead to more of the same in profits. I'm excited. There is no medium term risk (6 months) in the stock. IMO
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Post by BillH on Oct 23, 2012 10:40:56 GMT -8
The biggest missed opportunity of the event was Apple neglecting to poke a little fun at itself and run the video of Steve saying you'd have to widdle down your fingers to run a 7" device. I can imagine Phil looking toward heaven and saying "we love and miss you Steve but we think you didn't have this one quite right". Waiting for the Apple Store to come back online to order a new iMac. I'm loving all the new introductions. Ozzie Guillen once called the Minnesota Twins a pack of Piranha's for their their speed and the way they'd just sort of nibble you to death. Apples relentless recreation and extension of all their product lines must be exhausting for the competition. Microsoft's surface is DOA.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 10:42:10 GMT -8
OK, here is what we know. AAPL's price has fallen since the iphone number which was towards the end of the qtr. Insiders knew of the weak ipad quarter and have jumped off the bus. I question now if $9 EPS will be attainable. This is going to be a long Fall until January earnings. I am truly scared as to what kind of guidance Apple is going to give for the 1st qtr. Zaky says it's a small hit to EPS, but I think it could shave $1 off. Maybe more. $2 billion in revenue short just on ipad. because of the lower GM for the ipad, Hmmmmmmm .50-.60c
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Post by jeffi on Oct 23, 2012 10:44:10 GMT -8
As far as this quarters earnings... Expectations have just been lowered. The guidance is far more important and the product lines have had a massive refresh going into the holiday quarter. Ignore short term price and leg into FEB13 spreads. JMHO
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 10:44:41 GMT -8
I think AAPL is very attractively priced at these levels, but the short-term visibility is poor, so I'm just keeping my core stuff on the table for now. No visibility is a real pain for traders.
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Post by doublerainbow on Oct 23, 2012 10:45:46 GMT -8
silly market reaction but what else is new. AAPL can never create a kindle-like ipad mini - then businesses / education would have almost 0 interest in buying them. Amazon can have their e-reader space - aapl is smart for not going head-to-head on low-margin products with them i believe. while e-reader audiences might not shift from kindle to ipad, they will more likely go from kindle to ipad mini. and the vice versa isn't true (doesn't make sense to go from ipad to kindle)... so more market share for appl at end of day? yay. proof in due time.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 23, 2012 10:46:13 GMT -8
I'm more in agreement with MB than Jeffi, sry to say. I sense market languishing until products start shipping. iMac sales will fall for Q1. Basically, they are frozen. The new iMacs are great though. Though I shudder to think how much SSD would cost. Maybe I'll look into Fusion Drive.
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Post by stevereel on Oct 23, 2012 10:47:54 GMT -8
Fusion drive looks awesome.
Sell off is not as bad as it could have been. See what happens between now and earnings.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 23, 2012 10:48:13 GMT -8
apple store up
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 23, 2012 10:49:10 GMT -8
The biggest missed opportunity of the event was Apple neglecting to poke a little fun at itself and run the video of Steve saying you'd have to widdle down your fingers to run a 7" device. I can imagine Phil looking toward heaven and saying "we love and miss you Steve but we think you didn't have this one quite right". Waiting for the Apple Store to come back online to order a new iMac. I'm loving all the new introductions. Ozzie Guillen once called the Minnesota Twins a pack of Piranha's for their their speed and the way they'd just sort of nibble you to death. Apples relentless recreation and extension of all their product lines must be exhausting for the competition. Microsoft's surface is DOA. I like your attitude, Bill. It's refreshing, compared to some of the other voices of fear. Please, guys, let's man up a little.
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