chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 19, 2015 5:15:58 GMT -8
Well, what is there to say? A year that began so promisingly now feels like the Bataan Death March. Has there ever been such a disconnect between the performance of a company and its stock?
This, too, shall pass. In the meantime, raise a glass of seasonal cheer and enjoy the gift of family and friends. 'Tis the season to be thankful for the non-financial gifts that we have all been given.
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Dec 19, 2015 6:49:48 GMT -8
The market looks ahead. Last year's stock run up was in anticipation of this year's iPhone success. This year's stock sideways movement is based on fear of iPhone contraction in fiscal 2016. If that fear proves unfounded, the stock will rise again.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 19, 2015 7:21:01 GMT -8
Or more likely, they'll just start fearing about 2017. The stock will appreciate through sheer cash generation, but I don't expect it to ever trade rationally.
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Post by rickag on Dec 19, 2015 7:58:18 GMT -8
Which ever Presidential and Congressional candidates come out for unrestricted repatriation of overseas profits gets my vote, pass it on.
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Post by BillH on Dec 19, 2015 10:59:28 GMT -8
So, I'm mentally done with this year (yech) and moving on to next. I have to say that I'm getting a bit more excited all the time about where this all may go. From at least the sound of things, Tim may have hooked himself another ringer in Tor Myhren. Here's Grey's parting note about his leaving. Below is the text of a memo sent yesterday by Grey's Heekin to the agency's staff:
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 19, 2015 12:21:35 GMT -8
I would like to believe that there is some rationality going on, but I don't think that the facts support the idea that the "market looks ahead" when it comes to Apple. When the stock was rising in 2014, the steady diet of FUD never predicted the success of the 6 and 6 plus. Projected growth numbers for 2015 were anywhere from 8% to 23% in the brief review that I did. Given the failure of the market to adjust to how wrong they were about the estimated growth, I just can't buy the idea that looking ahead explains either the rise in 2014 or the stagnation in 2015.
As I have written before, I believe that the current behavior is fear of fear. Until we get past peoples reaction to other peoples reaction to January earnings, we are going nowhere. After that, we may recover, or we may just remain transfixed like a deer in the headlights waiting for March. It is what it is and we would be fools to fight it, but the stock is firmly in the hands of the lemmings. Given that, there is money to be made.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 19, 2015 14:48:08 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Dec 19, 2015 15:36:43 GMT -8
From the article: I think some of what he says in a way makes sense, but selling old tech to manufacturers I would bet against. If the new land and building Apple bought is for OLED or micro LED screen development and intellectual property, Apple most likely will not be manufacturing them, the technology they develop will be for Apple screens and only Apple screens. Considering this is Apple, the technology they would be working on may be processing efficiencies. And these hardware patents or process patents will be aggressively defended if this comes to pass. My 2¢
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 19, 2015 16:51:49 GMT -8
I wish Apple could manufacture all of its parts ... then we could get rid of the whole "channel checks" nonsense. Although to be honest - these idiot analysts would come up with some other nonsensical thing to fear... and as bud so eloquently put it (and perhaps a great American before him), "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 19, 2015 17:06:28 GMT -8
I wish Apple could manufacture all of its parts ... then we could get rid of the whole "channel checks" nonsense. Although to be honest - these idiot analysts would come up with some other nonsensical thing to fear... and as bud so eloquently put it (and perhaps a great American before him), "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." How about Apple just buy the darn companies ? Tim's gotta be as tired as we all are regarding the stock price , it's not good for morale or recruitment to have the stock not doing well ..... he's has simply flat out told people it's not a reliable metric (supplier checks) but people won't listen. Simple truth is if people stay in the stock and get burned they will remember that for a long time .. but if they got out and it goes up significantly it's not as bad ... well analysts and money managers think this way . So any negative sentiment and we drop like a rock .... but to those who are longs we have seen this and much worse ... Apple's market share in smartphones is through the roof not to mention share of profits ...it's a growing market and we really don't have any great competition on the horizon. We should all be very bullish .... Cheers to the longs ...
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Post by hydrarx on Dec 19, 2015 17:27:58 GMT -8
Just another interesting thing to note. This and the amount of shares short:
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 20, 2015 4:24:12 GMT -8
Looks like its time for a short squeeze hydrarx.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 20, 2015 7:53:18 GMT -8
Looks like its time for a short squeeze hydrarx. I think I agree. The short interest indicates to me that everyone and their brother is expecting Apple to take a hit in January. The options players must be especially gleeful since the drop in price coupled with the drop in implied volatility should allow call sellers to buy back the calls for pennies. However, remembering the adage that bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered, I have to believe that WS is always way ahead of us in situations like this. With everyone lined up to profit from a fall in the stock price, I am more and more confident of a sharp move up after earnings. I base my position on a clear understanding of my own ignorance. If I can figure this out, anyone can, thus there will be smart money on the other side of whatever I do. I usually do well when I figure out my best move and do the opposite. Now my head hurts.
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Post by osx10 on Dec 20, 2015 8:17:16 GMT -8
Anybody think that the 60 Minutes piece tonight will do more harm than good? The "don't bet against us" Brian (Williams) piece on NBC wasn't helpful.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 20, 2015 8:36:05 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Dec 20, 2015 9:33:58 GMT -8
Great read artman Thanx for sharing.
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Post by nagrani on Dec 20, 2015 10:48:09 GMT -8
Anybody think that the 60 Minutes piece tonight will do more harm than good? The "don't bet against us" Brian (Williams) piece on NBC wasn't helpful. No. But retail investors are probably spooked so wouldn't be surprised to see Apple gap down Monday followed by a bullish hammer to close in the green. Apple is oversold and due for a bounce which should start tomorrow or Tues at the latest. Mark these words.
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Post by osx10 on Dec 20, 2015 14:09:06 GMT -8
It appears that the Taylor Swift 1989 Concert that started streaming today through Apple Music is only going to work with Apple TV 4's if you want to watch it on a bigger screen.
Apple Music doesn't show up on older units and I got sound, but no video while trying to use airplay to stream it to the tv.
Tickets for this tour were a ton of $.
No parent who shelled out that kind of dough is going to blink at another $149 for the new ATV 4 unit so their kid can re-live the show (we saw her at Ford Field in Detroit and it was very entertaining actually).
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 20, 2015 15:49:46 GMT -8
for folks with iPhones:
type in lardass.
What does it autocorrect to?
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 20, 2015 16:22:28 GMT -8
for folks with iPhones: type in lardass. What does it autocorrect to? Priceless .... where do you come up with this stuff ... I love it!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 20, 2015 16:39:15 GMT -8
for folks with iPhones: type in lardass. What does it autocorrect to? Priceless .... where do you come up with this stuff ... I love it! HERE!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 20, 2015 16:45:28 GMT -8
Great read artman Thanx for sharing. THIS KID IS A REGULAR Steve Wozniak or Tommy Edison. in three months he built a self driving car. Hotz, using his winnings from hacking contests, spent a total of $50,000—the bulk of which ($30,000) was for the car itself.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 20, 2015 19:37:07 GMT -8
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Post by deasys on Dec 20, 2015 20:15:52 GMT -8
No. Google thinks I'm a 60 year old woman. And now, thanks to the excellent uBlock ad/content blocker, I don't see any ads at all. (I "whitelist" this forum.)
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on Dec 20, 2015 21:05:24 GMT -8
Looks like its time for a short squeeze hydrarx. Isn't that number less than 2 days of average volume? Not much of a short squeeze if you ask me
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