bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 7, 2016 9:44:18 GMT -8
Here are a couple of thoughts. If Apple introduces a 6c in March, we should expect to see a change in the orders for the 6S. personally, I don't believe any of this. It doesn't make sense that, given the way that China Mobile is adding LTE customers at 20 million a month. I think this is a FUD storm, pure and simple, but one that coincides with a market that is fragile. There is a lot to be afraid of now. An election in November, the effect of the oil collapse on the big banks, whatever the Shites and Sunnis decide to do with each other. Lots of reasons to pull back and find a safe place to hide. Of course, this means that it is shaping up to be another significant opportunity as well. If apple reaches 72 and if they increase the dividend by 15%, the yield will match current rates for a home refi with a 5/1 arm. Now might be a good time to start the process so that you can close right about in time for April earnings. If it doesn't drop, just don't close. I am up about $300k on the one I did on 2013. lh3.googleusercontent.com/Syr74xqAM61n3sawzzv6_GYCjzL-5_BqlFo1azZJIJQLOwjDNxc1lNOBPGk0eHvV4jPrU8LYh5pvpz0mQ6yb8KNfbJuCrMC_QF3h5PhWMNViRkbSdKRL3URIMoU1qhTznCiHHF4qQbNR1yl663iR_iumC111WVbOMAGMeUlVPkYNMlTspKlHmrEkB3YJUO7S1rpUGMo-6JH3IxTQIokTWSuMznQ-QmB1vNgK0pe6-FmdlrEwru6lc-8X0nz2wc6UaKjfNLn8Av9scIXuAEBvC8sZuTAraeMz1ieUJnZr0dnLv5D5hsK_JQIGEkQoyCS_0nUQGxDD6PqtDRq_GAaLAYiJQfWHLtkLXp8GBqIuw0rveBiz8g3Y561BBU7ocSsSJ-AHIqQLrCKkzcPe1Nijc6sDUomJThYSt-RaXznyitXgLlCuxN5dyliwUeN_rGUXngVAKoX6GiX8kOfgDYI7zp50WpEAxTJGX-WE3w25tBmwPKS_hsJi6eccIDa9JweQV5h07UyxJOqOvdoAK5Cbdxh1bPFYLp5Rn2hZY97ecLYgsT-FOPG4O0g-oLxkfmVuGQ=w1444-h1166-no
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2016 9:54:09 GMT -8
Here are a couple of thoughts. If Apple introduces a 6c in March, we should expect to see a change in the orders for the 6S. personally, I don't believe any of this. It doesn't make sense that, given the way that China Mobile is adding LTE customers at 20 million a month. I think this is a FUD storm, pure and simple, but one that coincides with a market that is fragile. There is a lot to be afraid of now. An election in November, the effect of the oil collapse on the big banks, whatever the Shites and Sunnis decide to do with each other. Lots of reasons to pull back and find a safe place to hide. Of course, this means that it is shaping up to be another significant opportunity as well. If apple reaches 72 and if they increase the dividend by 15%, the yield will match current rates for a home refi with a 5/1 arm. Now might be a good time to start the process so that you can close right about in time for April earnings. If it doesn't drop, just don't close. I am up about $300k on the one I did on 2013. lh3.googleusercontent.com/Syr74xqAM61n3sawzzv6_GYCjzL-5_BqlFo1azZJIJQLOwjDNxc1lNOBPGk0eHvV4jPrU8LYh5pvpz0mQ6yb8KNfbJuCrMC_QF3h5PhWMNViRkbSdKRL3URIMoU1qhTznCiHHF4qQbNR1yl663iR_iumC111WVbOMAGMeUlVPkYNMlTspKlHmrEkB3YJUO7S1rpUGMo-6JH3IxTQIokTWSuMznQ-QmB1vNgK0pe6-FmdlrEwru6lc-8X0nz2wc6UaKjfNLn8Av9scIXuAEBvC8sZuTAraeMz1ieUJnZr0dnLv5D5hsK_JQIGEkQoyCS_0nUQGxDD6PqtDRq_GAaLAYiJQfWHLtkLXp8GBqIuw0rveBiz8g3Y561BBU7ocSsSJ-AHIqQLrCKkzcPe1Nijc6sDUomJThYSt-RaXznyitXgLlCuxN5dyliwUeN_rGUXngVAKoX6GiX8kOfgDYI7zp50WpEAxTJGX-WE3w25tBmwPKS_hsJi6eccIDa9JweQV5h07UyxJOqOvdoAK5Cbdxh1bPFYLp5Rn2hZY97ecLYgsT-FOPG4O0g-oLxkfmVuGQ=w1444-h1166-noIf there is indeed a 6c, how long do you think Apple has been working on it and planning when it would be released? Why would they have ordered so many 6s phones in the first place with that knowledge? You are implying the timing to bring the 6c into production and to market is a rush decision, something Apple almost never does. And the lack of leaks regarding the phone lead me to believe that it isn't even in production yet, and unlikely to appear this quarter. I'm playing devil's advocate but I think it's important not to always give Apple the benefit of the doubt. After all, this all happened three years ago.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 7, 2016 10:21:00 GMT -8
Just bought some for my IRA .... whatever .....
As much as this sucks .... if it gives Apple the chance to buy back shares it's good in the long run. Then again ... they could buy anything right now , when the market is in this kind of shape and you have a bag full of money it should be viewed as a opportunity .
Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by BillH on Jan 7, 2016 10:22:05 GMT -8
I generally subscribe to the theory that where there is smoke, there's fire. I'm really starting to worry that FQ2 guidance and results will be weak. I would never believe a single supply chain data point but several that point to the same thing? Then also the other stuff like Foxconn staff getting vacations when they are normally working like crazy, suppliers forecasting zero growth, etc. I wonder if perhaps Apple decided that a single contract manufacturer is too "dangerous" and are working to diversify their business among more than one of them? Of course we haven't heard any rumors about a new contract manufacturer producing iPhones yet. As far as trades go, I sold some more Jan '18 puts today. I figure as follows - if someone puts the shares to me at a net price of 82-83, I'll take it. Heck, even at the current dividend rate, and it will probably rise in 2016 and 2017, that's already a 2.5% yield at that price. And if nobody puts those shares to me, well, I get to keep the premium, that's good too. We also don't have any real insight into how many robots have been deployed. I recall the original vision being cut back somewhat but they may still be a huge factor in production.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 7, 2016 10:28:48 GMT -8
Here are a couple of thoughts. If Apple introduces a 6c in March, we should expect to see a change in the orders for the 6S. personally, I don't believe any of this. It doesn't make sense that, given the way that China Mobile is adding LTE customers at 20 million a month. I think this is a FUD storm, pure and simple, but one that coincides with a market that is fragile. There is a lot to be afraid of now. An election in November, the effect of the oil collapse on the big banks, whatever the Shites and Sunnis decide to do with each other. Lots of reasons to pull back and find a safe place to hide. Of course, this means that it is shaping up to be another significant opportunity as well. If apple reaches 72 and if they increase the dividend by 15%, the yield will match current rates for a home refi with a 5/1 arm. Now might be a good time to start the process so that you can close right about in time for April earnings. If it doesn't drop, just don't close. I am up about $300k on the one I did on 2013. lh3.googleusercontent.com/Syr74xqAM61n3sawzzv6_GYCjzL-5_BqlFo1azZJIJQLOwjDNxc1lNOBPGk0eHvV4jPrU8LYh5pvpz0mQ6yb8KNfbJuCrMC_QF3h5PhWMNViRkbSdKRL3URIMoU1qhTznCiHHF4qQbNR1yl663iR_iumC111WVbOMAGMeUlVPkYNMlTspKlHmrEkB3YJUO7S1rpUGMo-6JH3IxTQIokTWSuMznQ-QmB1vNgK0pe6-FmdlrEwru6lc-8X0nz2wc6UaKjfNLn8Av9scIXuAEBvC8sZuTAraeMz1ieUJnZr0dnLv5D5hsK_JQIGEkQoyCS_0nUQGxDD6PqtDRq_GAaLAYiJQfWHLtkLXp8GBqIuw0rveBiz8g3Y561BBU7ocSsSJ-AHIqQLrCKkzcPe1Nijc6sDUomJThYSt-RaXznyitXgLlCuxN5dyliwUeN_rGUXngVAKoX6GiX8kOfgDYI7zp50WpEAxTJGX-WE3w25tBmwPKS_hsJi6eccIDa9JweQV5h07UyxJOqOvdoAK5Cbdxh1bPFYLp5Rn2hZY97ecLYgsT-FOPG4O0g-oLxkfmVuGQ=w1444-h1166-noIf there is indeed a 6c, how long do you think Apple has been working on it and planning when it would be released? Why would they have ordered so many 6s phones in the first place with that knowledge? You are implying the timing to bring the 6c into production and to market is a rush decision, something Apple almost never does. And the lack of leaks regarding the phone lead me to believe that it isn't even in production yet, and unlikely to appear this quarter. I'm playing devil's advocate but I think it's important not to always give Apple the benefit of the doubt. After all, this all happened three years ago. Yea, you are right about the 6C. Just grasping at straws.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 7, 2016 10:29:52 GMT -8
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Post by deasys on Jan 7, 2016 10:32:55 GMT -8
I generally subscribe to the theory that where there is smoke, there's fire. I'm really starting to worry that FQ2 guidance and results will be weak. I would never believe a single supply chain data point but several that point to the same thing? There is no smoke; there's only FUD: The freak out over declining iPhone sales is overblown"About three years ago, Nikkei said that Apple was scaling back iPhone 5 orders by a whopping 50% due to disappointing sales and weakening demand. And much like we’re seeing now in 2016, shares of Apple at the time dropped off significantly.
"But as it turns out, Nikkei’s report turned out to be nothing more than hot air. In fact, the iPhone during every single quarter in 2013 set a new sales record. So much for a 50% drop in sales."
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2016 10:38:55 GMT -8
I generally subscribe to the theory that where there is smoke, there's fire. I'm really starting to worry that FQ2 guidance and results will be weak. I would never believe a single supply chain data point but several that point to the same thing? There is no smoke; there's only FUD: The freak out over declining iPhone sales is overblown"About three years ago, Nikkei said that Apple was scaling back iPhone 5 orders by a whopping 50% due to disappointing sales and weakening demand. And much like we’re seeing now in 2016, shares of Apple at the time dropped off significantly.
"But as it turns out, Nikkei’s report turned out to be nothing more than hot air. In fact, the iPhone during every single quarter in 2013 set a new sales record. So much for a 50% drop in sales."Like I said, if it's a single dubious source I ignore it. But there are several, as well as real earnings reports from suppliers forecasting flat/down years. I'm not 100% convinced, but I am definitely concerned as should we all. I don't think any of forecasted 2013 and we were all surprised by the decrease in net income. Fool me once...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 7, 2016 10:41:29 GMT -8
There is no smoke; there's only FUD: The freak out over declining iPhone sales is overblown"About three years ago, Nikkei said that Apple was scaling back iPhone 5 orders by a whopping 50% due to disappointing sales and weakening demand. And much like we’re seeing now in 2016, shares of Apple at the time dropped off significantly.
"But as it turns out, Nikkei’s report turned out to be nothing more than hot air. In fact, the iPhone during every single quarter in 2013 set a new sales record. So much for a 50% drop in sales."Like I said, if it's a single dubious source I ignore it. But there are several, as well as real earnings reports from suppliers forecasting flat/down years. I'm not 100% convinced, but I am definitely concerned as should we all. I don't think any of forecasted 2013 and we were all surprised by the decrease in net income. Fool me once... The difference between now and 2013 is the sell off is happening before the negative EPS results, pricing in EPS contraction before it happens.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2016 10:57:56 GMT -8
I believe it started in 2012 before most of us had a clue about what was going on. And right now it's not about EPS, it's about iPhone unit sales.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 7, 2016 11:09:18 GMT -8
Down 2 points from Sponge's "bottom"
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Post by sponge on Jan 7, 2016 11:14:51 GMT -8
Are we dragging the market down or is the market dragging us down.
I vote for the latter..
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Post by sponge on Jan 7, 2016 11:17:10 GMT -8
Down 2 points from Sponge's "bottom" Hey my bottom was 97. Not there yet, and let's see where we close today.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 7, 2016 11:17:17 GMT -8
I believe it started in 2012 before most of us had a clue about what was going on. And right now it's not about EPS, it's about iPhone unit sales. Good point. And between the watch and buybacks, it's possible that iPhone unit sales could decrease slightly and EPS would still be growing. But if I recall, at the lowest point in 2013 the trailing PE was around 9, which is about where we would be at this price after Jan earnings are announced.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2016 11:19:42 GMT -8
Yes it's the market. Which reinforces my point that AAPL is as vulnerable as any other stock despite fundamentals, cash etc. etc.
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Post by carbonate24 on Jan 7, 2016 11:28:44 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 7, 2016 11:40:18 GMT -8
Well, you all have heard this from me before, but I really don't understand the total focus not only on growth for a company as successful and as large as Apple, which they have maintained, but on rate of growth. Again, if Apple's financial performance were exactly the same as the last fiscal year for the next five years, how big would their mountain of cash be? Does anyone think that the smartphone market is going to contract, or even stay the same, for the next five years? They may not maintain taking 94% of the profits in that market, but I doubt very much that the percentage is going to drop significantly.
However, I may have good news! We are thinking of selling some shares to finance a major home improvement project in 2016. If we do, I will certainly let you know, as I am sure that AAPL will rocket upwards immediately afterwards. Right now, I can't even imagine what the company can do to reignite share price growth, given the market reaction to their outstanding performance in the last two quarters of their fiscal 2015. As the old saying (sort of) goes, "You can lead an ass to water, but you can't make him drink."
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Jan 7, 2016 12:12:21 GMT -8
If you believe in the long term prospects of Apple (as I continue to do) these are quite simply the days of opportunity. I'm speaking as an investor who will be holding any shares bought for at least another few years. I don't worry myself with the fool's errand of trying to time the exact bottom, instead I just start cost-averaging small lots. I'll do this in the 90s and I'll do it again if we should hit the 80s. In another year or so I imagine I'll be quite happy with my purchases. Good luck to the longs!
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 7, 2016 12:26:16 GMT -8
I'm sure we all wouldn't mind AAPL dropping along with the broad market.
Our gripe is that when the market drops we drop (like a rock) but when the market rebounds in big numbers we only go up by a bit. Lower highs and lower lows!!
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Post by tuffett on Jan 7, 2016 12:32:27 GMT -8
$63B wiped out in the last 5 trading days. $120B in the last month.
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macster
Member
Posts: 2,642
Member is Online
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Post by macster on Jan 7, 2016 12:34:58 GMT -8
If you believe in the long term prospects of Apple (as I continue to do) these are quite simply the days of opportunity. I'm speaking as an investor who will be holding any shares bought for at least another few years. I don't worry myself with the fool's errand of trying to time the exact bottom, instead I just start cost-averaging small lots. I'll do this in the 90s and I'll do it again if we should hit the 80s. In another year or so I imagine I'll be quite happy with my purchases. Good luck to the longs! Cleared out a small amount of cash earlier in a IRA that I rolled over from a 401k for 56 shrs. at 97.85. Blood in the streets could get worst. War famine asteroids comets terror climate change alien invasion be damned.
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Post by sponge on Jan 7, 2016 12:40:59 GMT -8
Interesting data. WS will move the goal posts at earnings and focus on March quarter. I think March quarter will be fine. The June quarter is more concerning for me. But if we get decent guidance, a new Apple Watch and iPhone, then the numbers could be fairly strong and the stock can withstand and June slow down. Then in April we also get the dividend increase which I am estimating around 12% and that should help to keep us over 100 thru the summer. Never thought we would see the lows in January. For historical perspective we hit a low in 2008 that matched the high of 2006, and then a low in 2013 that matched the high of 2011, and now history repeats itself. I am refinancing my house. Will use a little cash like I did in 2005 and buying a few more shares. Hope to close in three weeks, so I would buy after earnings.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 7, 2016 13:24:46 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 7, 2016 13:42:51 GMT -8
Qorvo® Revises Revenue Guidance For Fiscal 2016 Third Quarter Greensboro, NC, and Hillsboro, OR, January 7, 2016 – Qorvo® (Nasdaq:QRVO), a leading provider of core technologies and RF solutions for mobile, infrastructure and aerospace/defense applications, today announced it expects revenue and earnings for its fiscal 2016 third quarter will be lower than it previously estimated on November 5, 2015. Qorvo currently expects its December quarterly revenue will be approximately $620 million, versus its original guidance of $720-$730 million provided November 5, 2015 in its second quarter earnings report. The revenue decline is the result of weaker than forecasted customer demand in the Company’s Mobile Products segment. Operating expenses are expected to decline sequentially, reflecting a significant reduction in variable compensation expense. During the quarter, Qorvo repurchased approximately 4.6 million shares of common stock at a total cost of $250 million. Qorvo has $750 million remaining in its share repurchase program, and Qorvo’s cash balance at the end of the period was over $1 billion. For the March 2016 quarter, Qorvo currently expects quarterly revenue to be approximately flat sequentially. For calendar 2016, Qorvo currently expects above-market revenue growth, based upon customer forecasts and existing customer design wins at Qorvo’s largest customers.
IMHO: they include Apple, Samsung and Huawei. I think Apple is 40% Samsung and Huawei are +10% www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1604778/000160477816000118/pressrelease1-7x16.htm
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 7, 2016 13:50:01 GMT -8
CRUS and QRVO (both lowered Q3 guidance) both under pressure. Both AAPL suppliers.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 7, 2016 13:58:10 GMT -8
CRUS and QRVO (both lowered Q3 guidance) both under pressure. Both AAPL suppliers. AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--January 7, 2016--Cirrus Logic, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRUS) today announced preliminary net revenue of approximately $347 million, based on unaudited financial results for the third quarter, which ended Dec. 26, 2015. “Our preliminary revenue results reflect weaker than anticipated demand for certain portable audio products. This weakness escalated over the last few weeks of December and is expected to continue to significantly impact our revenue in the March quarter,” said Jason Rhode, president and chief executive officer. “Despite this lower outlook for the short term, we expect our full FY16 results to reflect meaningful year-over-year revenue growth and further foresee strong growth for FY17 based on several anticipated new product introductions. The company is well positioned to benefit from the rapidly growing demand for innovative audio and voice products in the mobile phone, smart accessory and digital headset markets. We are aligned with the very best customers and have a comprehensive and robust product portfolio that spans the complete audio signal chain. With numerous growth vectors, we believe the company is poised for continued success in the coming years.” www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/772406/000115752316004167/a51254952ex99_1.htmFrom 10/28/2015: Business Outlook – Third Quarter FY16 Revenue is expected to range between $370 million and $400 million;investor.cirrus.com/news-and-events/media-center/news-details/2015/Cirrus-Logic-Reports-Q2-Revenue-of-3068-Million/default.aspxWho are among Cirrus Logic’s customers? The company has over 3,100 including Ford, Harman International, Itron, LG, Lenovo, Onkyo, Marantz, Motorola, Panasonic, Pioneer, Samsung, SiriusXM, Sony, and Vizio. investor.cirrus.com/about-the-company/investor-faqs/default.aspxAND APPLE (less than 72% of their business.) Page 6 d1lge852tjjqow.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000772406/8f20e349-21be-4942-b9a2-dd88117b3ee4.pdf
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Jan 7, 2016 13:58:52 GMT -8
Down 2 points from Sponge's "bottom" Hey my bottom was 97. Not there yet, and let's see where we close today. My bottom is red, raw, and aching after the last few days
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Post by sponge on Jan 7, 2016 14:26:01 GMT -8
Hey my bottom was 97. Not there yet, and let's see where we close today. My bottom is red, raw, and aching after the last few days I feel your pain. I am starting all over for a 4th time as a result of these crazy moves. I am still bullish on the company and stock. Should have gotten out at 128 when the 20 broke the 50 and then sold even more at the 200 MA. Great buying opportunity here just like in August. I think we will start the recovery next week.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 7, 2016 16:33:11 GMT -8
My bottom is red, raw, and aching after the last few days I feel your pain. I am starting all over for a 4th time as a result of these crazy moves. I am still bullish on the company and stock. Should have gotten out at 128 when the 20 broke the 50 and then sold even more at the 200 MA. Great buying opportunity here just like in August. I think we will start the recovery next week. It seems that all the news out of China and from suppliers is negative, and nobody knows when it will end. I think that we are quite a way from recovery, and that any stock recovery in the next few weeks will be premature. Time will tell.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 7, 2016 16:47:41 GMT -8
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