chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 8, 2016 21:29:44 GMT -8
This AAPL week couldn't end soon enough for me. I am hoping for one last Christmas present on January 26, although we know by now that there is no correlation between reported results and market reaction, unless the results "disappoint." Ahhhhh, remember the days when the weeks before January earnings created a groundswell of enthusiasm? Drinking tequila tonight in honor of the recapture of El Chapo (hmmm, anyone remember ?)
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Post by rickag on Jan 9, 2016 6:46:33 GMT -8
Well my stink bid ($92/share) still hasn't filled. And quite frankly I hope it never will.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 9, 2016 6:59:56 GMT -8
Thanks Rickag for putting a floor under us all.
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Post by rickag on Jan 9, 2016 8:39:46 GMT -8
Thanks Rickag for putting a floor under us all. You're quite welcome. I am sure my bid for 200 shares has the Bears running for cover.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 9, 2016 9:24:33 GMT -8
Catching up on my Macalope articles this morning, and the level of sheer, unadulterated stupid amazes me. Is there really so little to write about in the tech universe? Do Apple related articles really generate that many views that one can just write anything??? www.macworld.com/article/3019003/security/lies-damned-lies-and-these-lies-security-numbers-don-t-tell-the-story.htmlHere, dumbass writer #1 says OS X has the most vulnerabilities, but only if you look at the numbers by parsing them categorically! If you just go with the actual numbers, then Windows has three or four times more (!). www.macworld.com/article/3019739/macs/cold-as-ice-not-shocking-that-physics-affects-apple-products.htmlHere, ridiculously stupid writer #2 concludes that Apple products are poorly designed because their metal construction makes them cold when used outside in the winter! Face palm! www.macworld.com/article/3020552/ios/headline-doom-the-iphone-s-success-dooms-apple.htmlFinally, here doofus #3 states that AAPL is down 25% without including any context - like AAPL is tracking the overall markets . . . also that AAPL has little else going for it but the iPhone (except the other 37% of revs equals all of MSFT's revs), etc., etc. Well, anyway, if I didn't know better, I'd think there was some special reason that so many ridiculous and negative articles are constantly written about Apple.
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Post by sponge on Jan 9, 2016 9:45:53 GMT -8
In my view what's keeping us from getting a higher p/e is smartphone market share. End of 2014 there were signs the new larger 6 would do start to increase iPhone market share. When TC gave us data on Android switchers and large base of iPhone users that have yet to upgrade, it seemed we were on our way to making steady gains.
Market Share gains peaked with the stock in February last year. Since then data showed we have flattened or actually went down depending on who's data we follow.
I expected great market share gains by now. But we did not get it despite record sales. The reason I think is because Samsung has developed its own loyal base. I have talked to many Galaxy owners who love their phones and have upgraded every two years with no regret.
Apple needs an iPhone that is significantly different in features to get those Samsung owners to switch. For now they are satisfied with their phones to upgrade at a cheaper price.
WS sees that and is worried margins will drop as prices are lowered in the whole smartphone market.
So we can brag about switchers, growing base, strong ecosystem, and record industry profits and share, but until we increase market share the way Macs have for the last 10 years, I don't see p/e expansion much beyond 18. TC said the iPhone will continue to make up a large part of Apples revenue for next 5 years. Data shows there is plenty of smartphone adoption left around the world. So we can grow in sales but not gain market share.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 9, 2016 9:56:40 GMT -8
Data shows there is plenty of smartphone adoption left around the world. So we can grow in sales but not gain market share. Here's where I disagree with your thesis sponge. The difference is the profit margin that Apple collects on each new phone. So as the total smartphone market increases, their share also increases their profits significantly. Samsung's percentage of the additional phones sold produces a relatively tiny increase in their profits, and almost all other vendors see no increase in profits. Market share is a red herring for evaluating Apple profits, IMHO.
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Post by sponge on Jan 9, 2016 10:19:11 GMT -8
Data shows there is plenty of smartphone adoption left around the world. So we can grow in sales but not gain market share. Here's where I disagree with your thesis sponge. The difference is the profit margin that Apple collects on each new phone. So as the total smartphone market increases, their share also increases their profits significantly. Samsung's percentage of the additional phones sold produces a relatively tiny increase in their profits, and almost all other vendors see no increase in profits. Market share is a red herring for evaluating Apple profits, IMHO. I agree. I am only stating the way WS looks at it. Samsung's profits have dropped because of heavy discounts and Chinese companies eating their market share. WS is worried those record profits will go down as Apple may be forced to discount their iPhones. Therefore until the next killer product comes out, Apple needs to increase market share. Given the prices WS thinks the market for high end smartphones is dried up. TC made it clear there is plenty of opportunity in exciting markets, but WS does not believe him. I also think WS is concerned we will see iPad like drop in sales as people hold on to iPhones longer. TC really build up iPad potential in 2011 and 4 years later he is having to explain why they stopped growing sales.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Jan 9, 2016 10:34:56 GMT -8
The slowing of smartphone growth, bearing in mind even in the previous fast-growing market all but two vendors were we think loss-making, could lead to a consolidation that helps Apple increase share. Think one or more of Moto, LG, HTC etc falling away. Why would any right-minded CEO continue pursuing a market that causes a net loss to his/her business when said market has stopped growing?
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Post by sponge on Jan 9, 2016 10:47:25 GMT -8
The fact that Blackberry is still around and Samsung has $58 billion in cash tells me that the smartphone wars will continue for decades.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 9, 2016 12:33:19 GMT -8
Probably old news to many of you, but here is a Samsung "original" design I hadn't seen yet. Still shameless <eye roll>.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 9, 2016 14:29:51 GMT -8
How about a little Apple Car talk instead of the controversial AFB Car Talk?
Autonomous driving technology is ramping fast from reading articles in the news.
Big makers are announcing partnerships: Ford with Google, GM with Lyft, Toyota with Uber.
What is Apple going to do (if it gets into the car business) as far as the manufacturing facility part of the equation?
Will they partner with BMW as has been rumored in the past?
I occasionally wonder if Apple should buy VW.
Not saying buy them now but if the right circumstances came together, maybe the 2017 time frame?
If VW stock continues to slide because of lawsuits to a bargain and tax reform doesn't happen why not use the offshore cash for a big foreign acquisition?
VW's revenue/net income as of yahoo 9/30/15 shows 231.67B/6.85B that would be putting the cash to work generating more rev's and income.
VW has all these brands: VW, Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche.
Apple could put whatever technology they chose in all those cars and build a revolutionary Apple Car too.
There's so much emphasis to increase revenue streams beyond the iPhone...seems logical to me but what do I know.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 9, 2016 14:43:48 GMT -8
I don't want to get a lot of crap (don't click if you don't want to) for posting a link to Dan Nathan's article on AAPL (the Stock - NOT the Company) but it makes some sense in how it has been trading. It also highlights that AAPL's largest holders have been net sellers which is why we may have also seen pressure on the stock. www.riskreversal.com/2016/01/06/morningword-1616-aapl-as-the-worm-turns/
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Post by sponge on Jan 9, 2016 14:51:25 GMT -8
How about a little Apple Car talk instead of the controversial AFB Car Talk? Autonomous driving technology is ramping fast from reading articles in the news. Big makers are announcing partnerships: Ford with Google, GM with Lyft, Toyota with Uber. What is Apple going to do (if it gets into the car business) as far as the manufacturing facility part of the equation? Will they partner with BMW as has been rumored in the past? I occasionally wonder if Apple should buy VW. Not saying buy them now but if the right circumstances came together, maybe the 2017 time frame? If VW stock continues to slide because of lawsuits to a bargain and tax reform doesn't happen why not use the offshore cash for a big foreign acquisition? VW's revenue/net income as of yahoo 9/30/15 shows 231.67B/6.85B that would be putting the cash to work generating more rev's and income. VW has all these brands: VW, Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche. Apple could put whatever technology they chose in all those cars and build a revolutionary Apple Car too. There's so much emphasis to increase revenue streams beyond the iPhone...seems logical to me but what do I know. Very good points. I wrestle with weather they will partner with a car company or do it on their own. Not to confuse brands, I think they are better off going on their own. That's why I see an Apple Car being released in 2021 at the earliest. They can announce in 2019 and then introduce the car in middle of 2020 and have a 6-8 month delivery in 2021. The hype will be bigger then any other product. IPhone has legs until 2020. By then the Apple Watch should be a big hit so Apple Car will be just gravy by 2021.
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Post by rickag on Jan 9, 2016 15:00:31 GMT -8
I don't want to get a lot of crap (don't click if you don't want to) for posting a link to Dan Nathan's article on AAPL (the Stock - NOT the Company) but it makes some sense in how it has been trading. It also highlights that AAPL's largest holders have been net sellers which is why we may have also seen pressure on the stock. www.riskreversal.com/2016/01/06/morningword-1616-aapl-as-the-worm-turns/Why would you expect negative responses, actually a good article, thank you for posting.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 9, 2016 16:05:54 GMT -8
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Post by hydrarx on Jan 9, 2016 19:16:28 GMT -8
At least we've got some hedgies on our side (long): beanstockd.com/apple-inc-aapl-shares-bought-by-eqis-capital-management/233759/I think this upcoming week will be rebound week. Lowest RSI we've had in a long, long time and the selling from China implosion was overdone. Back above 100 then we'll end the week fighting the 100-105 range. In retrospect, I should've done deep ITM calls and sold calls against them each month to reduce cost basis, instead of buying ~6 months out APR calls at 115. Might still workout, at least breakeven, if we can claw our way back to 115+. Earnings tractor beam perhaps... As a final thought, any trader not incorporating technical analysis into their trading plan will have pain. I think a big insight for me was realizing in no way should I be thinking about investing or being an investor, but rather, trading. Fundamentals are dead (mostly). Got to think what are the algos up to and the self fulfilling prophecies of TA take over their program logic. Be a minnow and swim with the sharks.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 9, 2016 19:58:32 GMT -8
At least we've got some hedgies on our side (long): beanstockd.com/apple-inc-aapl-shares-bought-by-eqis-capital-management/233759/I think this upcoming week will be rebound week. Lowest RSI we've had in a long, long time and the selling from China implosion was overdone. Back above 100 then we'll end the week fighting the 100-105 range. In retrospect, I should've done deep ITM calls and sold calls against them each month to reduce cost basis, instead of buying ~6 months out APR calls at 115. Might still workout, at least breakeven, if we can claw our way back to 115+. Earnings tractor beam perhaps... As a final thought, any trader not incorporating technical analysis into their trading plan will have pain. I think a big insight for me was realizing in no way should I be thinking about investing or being an investor, but rather, trading. Fundamentals are dead (mostly). Got to think what are the algos up to and the self fulfilling prophecies of TA take over their program logic. Be a minnow and swim with the sharks. With the current stock market, anything is possible so you may be correct and all good TA traders will end up wealthy whereas AAPL Longs will regret staying the course. But so far, investing (using fundamentals) has worked quite well for many on the board. I believe I understand what you're saying about not trying to buck the market momentum but I think there may be a place for both schools of thought. We'll see what happens over the next few years. Good luck with your trading!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 9, 2016 20:19:43 GMT -8
Actually, worth several looks and reads, Red, thanks for posting it. Daniel Eran Dilger can write so well about Apple that I don't think I've ever failed to be impressed by the content and logic of his articles. I can't resist the impulse to include a few paragraphs into this post because the entire article was just that good. Jay Yarow of BI=Clickbait legend? Love it!! ================== That's the premise set out by clickbait legend Jay Yarow of Business Insider, who penned a compendium of worries of potential scenarios of doom for the world's largest and most successful tech company, bravely entitled "Apple is going to have a tough year." Apple is essentially the Professor stranded on Gilligan's Island, except that rather than being the intelligent problem solver for a bunch of goofy half-wits stuck on an island, Apple is competing against them in the global market for electronics. BI frets that Apple could possibly face flat growth in iPhone unit sales over the next year. That is, if you believe analysts who, based on December quarter supply chain channel checks, think they know how many phones Apple will sell three months from now, and who are currently contradicting Apple executives' own guidance pertaining to the quarter that just ended.Apple didn't warn analysts and investors that it was facing an end to iPhone growth. Tim Cook did the opposite during the September earnings call, explaining the credible reasons why the growth Apple was seeing with iPhone 6/6s would continue into the future. Cook is neither a member of the media nor an executive for Samsung, so under FTC regulations he can't materially lie about the financial situation of his company and expect to get away with it.But right now, can we stop the handwringing faux-pity over Apple's dire problems of making too much money while selling too many phones with the dire result of being challenged to improve upon that performance? Because that's not a problem, it's every CEO's fantasy.
Thanks again for posting it!
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 9, 2016 23:01:23 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 10, 2016 9:05:57 GMT -8
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Post by osx10 on Jan 10, 2016 9:29:40 GMT -8
Curious whether anyone here is a member of the paid service at Above Avalon - if so, is it worth the money?
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Post by sponge on Jan 10, 2016 9:54:36 GMT -8
Curious whether anyone here is a member of the paid service at Above Avalon - if so, is it worth the money? Most of his good articles eventually become public. They show up on SA.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 10, 2016 14:10:46 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 10, 2016 14:25:03 GMT -8
+6 (But I picture Dilger frothing at the mouth when he writes his screeds.)
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 10, 2016 16:19:03 GMT -8
China CPI +1.6% for December vs 1.5% in November PPI -5.9% This is the 46th straight month of decline. Nikkei futures down over 500 pts. S&P looking down ~13 points Dow ~120 points Here we go again.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 10, 2016 18:04:57 GMT -8
China CPI +1.6% for December vs 1.5% in November PPI -5.9% This is the 46th straight month of decline. Nikkei futures down over 500 pts. S&P looking down ~13 points Dow ~120 points Here we go again. Phoebe dig out those mc hammer pants - you will get to wear them tomorrow late afternoon
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 10, 2016 18:13:34 GMT -8
China CPI +1.6% for December vs 1.5% in November PPI -5.9% This is the 46th straight month of decline. Nikkei futures down over 500 pts. S&P looking down ~13 points Dow ~120 points Here we go again. Phoebe dig out those mc hammer pants - you will get to wear them tomorrow late afternoon " YO SWEETNESS" I'll " PRAY" they " PUMP IT UP" and I'll be waiting to " LET'S GET IT STARTED" but is the market actually " GAINING MOMENTUM" or will it be a dead cat bounce? How did I do ... had to do it because I'm " TOO LEGIT TO QUIT"
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Post by nagrani on Jan 10, 2016 18:17:16 GMT -8
YOU CANT TOUCH THIS stock anymore. Time for the bounce
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Post by hydrarx on Jan 10, 2016 18:43:22 GMT -8
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