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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 23:19:58 GMT -8
Will we get a bounce today? Or will the broader market drag us down?
AT&T reports today - my prediction is 4.5 million iPhones sold.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 23:36:17 GMT -8
Weird...just realised you can't actually buy an iPad on apple.com at the moment other than the iPad 2.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 0:49:23 GMT -8
Will we get a bounce today? Or will the broader market drag us down? Today isn't the "day" we should be looking at. We should be looking at what the 'market' believes on a longer term. One of the best ways to do that is by watching Put/Call Open Interest ratio. Here's what I'm seeing: ............Total ..............Put ............... Call ................P/C ............Open Interest ..Open Interest ..Open Interest ...Ratio 21-Sep ...3,566,957 .......1,765,464.......1,801,493 ........0.98:1.00 24-Oct ....3,362,744 .......1,396,227 .......1,966,517........0.71:1.00 On Sept 21 AAPL peaked at $705 with P/C Ratio at 0.98:1.00. Since then P/C Ratio has steadily declined to today's ratio of 0.71:1.00. The table above clearly illustrates the shift in sentiment from Bearish to Bullish (obviously, the 'market' isn't concerned, in the long term, with current macro issues, at least as they apply to Apple/AAPL). These shifts occur at ATHs and Bottoms. The average number of trading days between ATHs is 82 (since beginning of fiscal 2010). Using that average AAPL's next ATH will occur on, or about, January 19, 2013, one week prior to January expiry. That would be consistent with prior year's trading activity (AAPL peaking in last week, or so, prior to January earnings). This would also indicate that the 'market' expects Apple to guide strongly for FQ1/2013, and that that expectation came prior to today's product announcements, meaning that those announcements had no impact on the 'markets' long term outlook on Apple/AAPL.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 1:02:49 GMT -8
Thanks for the post Gregg, always interesting.
What's the lowest that ratio ever gets before a bull run?
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 24, 2012 1:34:09 GMT -8
The intro to the David Pogue NYT Surface review is pretty funny:
How would you like to move into a stunning mansion on a bluff overlooking the sea — in Somalia? Or would you like the chance to own a new Ferrari — that has to be refueled every three miles? Would you take a job that pays $1 million a year — cutting football fields with toenail clippers? The Surface tablet has a 10.6-inch screen with a Touch Cover, attached by magnets, that contains a full keyboard. That’s the sort of choice Microsoft is asking you to make with the spectacularly designed, wildly controversial Surface tablet.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 24, 2012 2:51:50 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 3:15:40 GMT -8
GooPad is already advertising their $99 iPad knock-off do out in November. When will people learn to stop buying that crap - it's the only way we put them out of business although counterfeiting and knock-offs have been around as long as.....well maybe not as long as the oldest profession in the world...but long enough.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 3:18:31 GMT -8
BIG AT&T news coming....... I hear the ticker going BONG! BONG Let us review the old news clippings first. AT&T Sets Sales Record for iPhone 5 Most Successful iPhone Launch Ever Dallas, Texas, September 17, 2012 ShareThis AT&T* set a sales record with iPhone 5 over the weekend, making it the fastest-selling iPhone the company has ever offered. Customers ordered more iPhones from AT&T than any previous model both on its first day of preorders and over the weekend. iPhone 5 is still available for preorder at www.att.com/iphone and will be available in AT&T retail stores beginning at 8 am local time on Friday, September 21. AT&T offers a number of advantages for iPhone 5 customers. AT&T's network lets you talk and surf the web at the same time. Largest 4G Network. Customers get blazing-fast speeds on the nation’s largest 4G network, covering 275 million people. Flexible Rate Plans. AT&T doesn’t force customers to switch data plans to get the best device price when they upgrade to a new device and new AT&T customers aren’t forced into a certain plan; they have the flexibility to choose from one of several individual or Mobile Share plans. More customers choose AT&T for iPhone than any other U.S. carrier.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 3:24:39 GMT -8
But they only received a certain amount - so will they tell us that it was all they had so we can extrapolate from that? Or will they just throw out a number and we are left to wonder if that was their full allocation? Thoughts?
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Post by wheeles on Oct 24, 2012 3:32:02 GMT -8
In all honesty, I'm not interested in what AT&T reports, but the reaction to it.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 24, 2012 3:33:23 GMT -8
EMC missed.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 3:34:23 GMT -8
AT&T reporting....$0.62 ex-items vs. $0.60
Increasing guidance..and... 4.7 million iPhone activations
So we were up over 3 in pre-market and now are up half that amount. I thought that was a good number to be hearing from them...no?
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Post by bernard on Oct 24, 2012 3:44:40 GMT -8
AT&T reporting....$0.62 ex-items vs. $0.60 Increasing guidance..and... 4.7 million iPhone activations So we were up over 3 in pre-market and now are up half that amount. I thought that was a good number to be hearing from them...no? Refresh me.. How many Iphones did VZ have? Then add in 1.5 to 2M for Sprint and divide by .25 to .30 to get total Iphone for 4thQ
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 3:45:37 GMT -8
Strong Wireless Performance; Smartphones 81 percent of Postpaid Sales Wireless revenues up 6.6 percent; wireless service revenues up 4.5 percent Strongest postpaid wireless subscriber ARPU (average monthly revenues per subscriber) growth in six quarters, up 2.4 percent to $65.20; phone-only ARPU up almost 3 percent Strong smartphone sales of 6.1 million; postpaid smartphone customer base now 44.5 million, up 1.4 million from second quarter 2012 4.7 million iPhones activated; record sales quarter for Android and Windows smartphonesBest-ever third-quarter postpaid churn 678,000 net increase in total wireless subscribers, including gains in every customer category Wireless operating income margin of 26.2 percent; EBITDA service margin of 40.8 percent with strong smartphone sales www.att.com/gen/press-room?pid=23448&cdvn=news&newsarticleid=35518How is my math? 77% of smartphones activated were iPhones?
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Post by bernard on Oct 24, 2012 3:49:53 GMT -8
Strong Wireless Performance; Smartphones 81 percent of Postpaid Sales How is my math? 77% of smartphones activated were iPhones?You got it
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 24, 2012 4:00:37 GMT -8
In all honesty, I'm not interested in what AT&T reports, but the reaction to it. There is some truth to this. If I recall correctly Verizon total iPhone activations were pretty good (up sequentially), but market was disappointed by the iPhone 5 number. The AT&T number is even better than the Verizon number was, but there is always room for interpretation, at least in the near term. Doesn't it seem like with these numbers from Verizon and AT&T, iPhone sales (esp 4/4S sales) must have been pretty decent last quarter?
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Post by tofdriver on Oct 24, 2012 4:01:35 GMT -8
Will we get a bounce today? Or will the broader market drag us down? Today isn't the "day" we should be looking at. We should be looking at what the 'market' believes on a longer term. One of the best ways to do that is by watching Put/Call Open Interest ratio. Here's what I'm seeing: ............Total ..............Put ............... Call ................P/C ............Open Interest ..Open Interest ..Open Interest ...Ratio 21-Sep ...3,566,957 .......1,765,464.......1,801,493 ........0.98:1.00 24-Oct ....3,362,744 .......1,396,227 .......1,966,517........0.71:1.00 On Sept 21 AAPL peaked at $705 with P/C Ratio at 0.98:1.00. Since then P/C Ratio has steadily declined to today's ratio of 0.71:1.00. The table above clearly illustrates the shift in sentiment from Bearish to Bullish (obviously, the 'market' isn't concerned, in the long term, with current macro issues, at least as they apply to Apple/AAPL). These shifts occur at ATHs and Bottoms. The average number of trading days between ATHs is 82 (since beginning of fiscal 2010). Using that average AAPL's next ATH will occur on, or about, January 19, 2013, one week prior to January expiry. That would be consistent with prior year's trading activity (AAPL peaking in last week, or so, prior to January earnings). This would also indicate that the 'market' expects Apple to guide strongly for FQ1/2013, and that that expectation came prior to today's product announcements, meaning that those announcements had no impact on the 'markets' long term outlook on Apple/AAPL. Boy are your posts good...
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 4:03:21 GMT -8
AT&T reporting....$0.62 ex-items vs. $0.60 Increasing guidance..and... 4.7 million iPhone activations So we were up over 3 in pre-market and now are up half that amount. I thought that was a good number to be hearing from them...no? Refresh me.. How many Iphones did VZ have? Then add in 1.5 to 2M for Sprint and divide by .25 to .30 to get total Iphone for 4thQ I think the Verizon number was 3.1, no? So 4.7+3.1+1.5 (conservative)/.30 (again, conservative) = 31 (conservative according to your formula)
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 24, 2012 4:06:10 GMT -8
handy chart, from 9to5mac.com
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Post by rickag on Oct 24, 2012 4:06:56 GMT -8
AT&T reporting....$0.62 ex-items vs. $0.60 Increasing guidance..and... 4.7 million iPhone activations So we were up over 3 in pre-market and now are up half that amount. I thought that was a good number to be hearing from them...no? Refresh me.. How many Iphones did VZ have? Then add in 1.5 to 2M for Sprint and divide by .25 to .30 to get total Iphone for 4thQ opps phoebear611 beat me to it. Must be I have fewer fingers to use to count with after my encounter with that falling knife, slowing down my ciphering speed. 3.1 million iPhones activated by Verison. Using 0.3 I get 31. Kind of doubt it, and not placing any funds bases on this. But hope like $&// that it would come close.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 4:09:20 GMT -8
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Post by Big Al on Oct 24, 2012 4:12:26 GMT -8
AT&T reporting....$0.62 ex-items vs. $0.60 Increasing guidance..and... 4.7 million iPhone activations So we were up over 3 in pre-market and now are up half that amount. I thought that was a good number to be hearing from them...no? Refresh me.. How many Iphones did VZ have? Then add in 1.5 to 2M for Sprint and divide by .25 to .30 to get total Iphone for 4thQ Why .25 to .30?
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 24, 2012 4:17:23 GMT -8
Refresh me.. How many Iphones did VZ have? Then add in 1.5 to 2M for Sprint and divide by .25 to .30 to get total Iphone for 4thQ Why .25 to .30? I did some quick math (could be wrong!), which suggests that, for the last four quarters, U.S. sales were 27.5%, 37.0%, 25.6% and 30.4%. So I'm not sure .30 is all that conservative... 37.0% was also a launch quarter, and one in which the phone actually launched in more countries? 37% suggests 25M phones? I must admit, this kind of guesswork is pretty fun. Didn't someone post a small spreadsheet last quarter (which if I recall correctly was overly optimistic)? It would be curious to see the assumptions back then.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 4:24:01 GMT -8
These analysts all feel that AAPL, being the premium brand, is just fine with their $329 pricing: tinyurl.com/8s3fl64
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 4:26:53 GMT -8
In all honesty, I'm not interested in what AT&T reports, but the reaction to it. Me, I want both. I am very interested in the number from AT&T, now that I see it I feel much better. Very good number IMO. I know I am reaching, but wouldn't be nice if S came in at 2.2 million to give us a nice 10 million just in the US. Just wishing there as I only look for 1.5-1.7 Hey Greece is back in the news, great! Not
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 4:28:51 GMT -8
FITZSTOCK 2004, which some of us follow just tweeted:
"Charts are COMPLETELY BEARISH $SPY $AAPL...However, the lack of follow thru selling today, could lead to a MASSIVE SQUEEZE....keep open mind"
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Post by appledoc on Oct 24, 2012 4:30:22 GMT -8
I did some quick math (could be wrong!), which suggests that, for the last four quarters, U.S. sales were 27.5%, 37.0%, 25.6% and 30.4%. So I'm not sure .30 is all that conservative... 37.0% was also a launch quarter, and one in which the phone actually launched in more countries? 37% suggests 25M phones? I must admit, this kind of guesswork is pretty fun. Didn't someone post a small spreadsheet last quarter (which if I recall correctly was overly optimistic)? It would be curious to see the assumptions back then. I would think the holiday quarter will always be skewed more heavily toward US sales. I expect a number < 37%.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 4:31:07 GMT -8
In all honesty, I'm not interested in what AT&T reports, but the reaction to it. Me, I want both. I am very interested in the number from AT&T, now that I see it I feel much better. Very good number IMO. I know I am reaching, but wouldn't be nice if S came in at 2.2 million to give us a nice 10 million just in the US. Just wishing there as I only look for 1.5-1.7 Hey Greece is back in the news, great! Not It's an awful thing to say but I really think the market is numb to Greece at this point. Spain or Italy is another issue but I think we are just so tired of hearing the Greece nonsense that it doesn't seem to be reflected as much - if at all - in the trading day. So chillax...let's just focus on ONE stock today and tomorrow.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 24, 2012 4:33:33 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Oct 24, 2012 4:35:41 GMT -8
In all honesty, I'm not interested in what AT&T reports, but the reaction to it. Me, I want both. I am very interested in the number from AT&T, now that I see it I feel much better. Very good number IMO. I know I am reaching, but wouldn't be nice if S came in at 2.2 million to give us a nice 10 million just in the US. Just wishing there as I only look for 1.5-1.7 Hey Greece is back in the news, great! Not I think Sprint could surprise to the upside. They were aggressive in their price slashing of the 4S back in August. $149 then $149 + $100 Amex gift card.
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