|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 9:19:59 GMT -8
Your definition of broke is probably different than mine. Broke is a negative net worth Yeah, not quite that bad, if and only if I count long-term illiquid assets--but short term, ouch...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 9:25:57 GMT -8
Thanks for the post Gregg, always interesting. What's the lowest that ratio ever gets before a bull run? The lowest I recall seeing it in the last two years was about 0.64:1.00. That was in December 2011. In January Apple reported the most extreme earnings beat ever.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 9:30:07 GMT -8
Sprint number tomorrow should be interesting given they put their whole business on the line for iPhone.
Also - Amzn - will people ever see through the smoke and mirrors they have created? At what point will earnings count? - ugh
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 9:32:15 GMT -8
But they only received a certain amount - so will they tell us that it was all they had so we can extrapolate from that? Or will they just throw out a number and we are left to wonder if that was their full allocation? Thoughts? All we need to know is that total first weekend sales we more than 25% higher than the 4S. For sure another million were in transit. I don't know how long it took Apple to stockpile that many, but Apple is producing at max rate right now, and will be until demand balance is reached (mid to late March quarter).
|
|
icam
Member
Posts: 447
|
Post by icam on Oct 24, 2012 9:32:26 GMT -8
Your definition of broke is probably different than mine. Broke is a negative net worth Yeah, not quite that bad, if and only if I count long-term illiquid assets--but short term, ouch... At my house, they all count. Got to keep it real so they always have, and always will.
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Oct 24, 2012 9:32:29 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by kevinhernandez on Oct 24, 2012 9:35:31 GMT -8
Does anyone on this Board know the answer to this: Does AAPL discount iPads to educational institutions? One of the negatives that I have been hearing and reading about is the concern that $329 may price them out of a burgeoning educational market for tablets particularly with the municipalities. I have a real problem thinking that AAPL did not do extensive research on this but am reminded that SJ did not believe in focus groups - that said, it's TC's company now. Anyone know the answer to the above? I used to be an Apple Dealer and sell to schools. Yes they are discounted- 10 to 20%. Depending on the size of the order and packages and specials that are offered at certain times of the year-the discounts can be substantially higher. Software and other accessories are many times included. Orders include installation and sometimes training.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 9:35:43 GMT -8
Refresh me.. How many Iphones did VZ have? Then add in 1.5 to 2M for Sprint and divide by .25 to .30 to get total Iphone for 4thQ I think the Verizon number was 3.1, no? So 4.7+3.1+1.5 (conservative)/.30 (again, conservative) = 31 (conservative according to your formula) Hmmm, my analyst leading estimate is 32.8 million units.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 9:39:13 GMT -8
Your definition of broke is probably different than mine. Broke is a negative net worth Yeah, not quite that bad, if and only if I count long-term illiquid assets--but short term, ouch... Not trying to give you a hard time, just trying to keep things in perspective in these trying times.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 9:43:24 GMT -8
I think the Verizon number was 3.1, no? So 4.7+3.1+1.5 (conservative)/.30 (again, conservative) = 31 (conservative according to your formula) Hmmm, my analyst leading estimate is 32.8 million units. LOL, calm down Gregg, what was your ipad number again.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 10:03:26 GMT -8
One of the best ways to do that is by watching Put/Call Open Interest ratio. Here's what I'm seeing: ............Total ..............Put ............... Call ................P/C ............Open Interest ..Open Interest ..Open Interest ...Ratio 21-Sep ...3,566,957 .......1,765,464.......1,801,493 ........0.98:1.00 24-Oct ....3,362,744 .......1,396,227 .......1,966,517........0.71:1.00 Good info. Where did you get that summary? (I'm assuming you don't total up OI of all strikes yourself...) My online broker. OptionsXpress trading history page
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 10:11:35 GMT -8
There are some who believe that the timing of the entire event was designed to shore up pending disappointment in Q4 results. Designed to give confidence that a refreshed product line would drive a great Q1 after a disappointing Q4. After all, when was the last time we saw such a major launch blitz two days before earnings? I don't know what to make of this thinking. Or the iPad mini was simply ready for announcement. Not everything has to be a conspiracy. And if they wanted to overshadow a poor Q4, TC wouldn't have provided us with the 100M iPad number. Apple has demonstrated on several occasions that they do not manage the Company to enhance the stock. No conspiracy here.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 10:13:38 GMT -8
Apple has demonstrated on several occasions that they do not manage the Company to enhance the stock. You got that right, but I think times are a changing.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 10:23:06 GMT -8
You should have asked her if she has been playing with Apple options recently. Might have been a member here, and you could have had a nice conversation. We had a member on the old board from a slavic country who said his family back home has zero discretionary money but they do without to be able to buy the iPhone. It's sad but I get it. Also - the Spaniards do a lot of "cash" business....they find a way...I know it from first hand experience and was just reminded of it as Guy Pasani mentioned that his stay in Spain was done on a cash only basis INCLUDING the quaint hotel he was staying at. As for the potential member who may want to have a conversation with me about my observation - well, it is what it is. I know what I saw - but hell - sure, I guess it was a gift...but bothersome nonetheless. I have a friend that adopted her daughter's three boys. The State had taken them from her. The burden of caring for the boys (oldest is 9) makes working near impossible. Her primary income comes from the State (includes food stamps). She has purchased each boy an iPad, and an iPhone and iPad for herself. No matter your income, if you want something bad enough you'll figure it out.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 10:23:32 GMT -8
Apple has demonstrated on several occasions that they do not manage the Company to enhance the stock. You got that right, but I think times are a changing. DON"T bet your money on it!
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Oct 24, 2012 10:26:53 GMT -8
Hmmm, my analyst leading estimate is 32.8 million units. LOL, calm down Gregg, what was your ipad number again. true, but the the AT&T and Verizon numbers are now fact, and they both are stronger than expected, even to the optimistic analysts. I can't see how we go from 7.9m from the 3 big US carriers (VZ, T, S) and 26m overall, to: 7.8m just from VZ and T, plus Sprint ~1.5, and come up with 26m again like last quarter. Either I just don't know what some insiders know about foreign iphone sales, or something doesn't add up. Or we are above 30m and everyone says for the 20th time, 'wtf was I thinking to doubt them' we'll know soon enough!
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 10:36:17 GMT -8
ROGERS (CANADA): www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/rogers-profit-falls-5-per-cent/article4633747/“In the quarter, we activated over 700,000 smartphones – the second highest number ever for Rogers – both for new subscribers and upgrades,” Mr. Mohamed said............ Still, the Rogers recorded increased costs for wireless equipment for the quarter as more and more customers opted for smartphones, including the new iPhone 5. Retention spending, which includes costly subsidies on device upgrades, also crept higher at $214 million as more and more customers flocked to the priciest smartphones. “During the three months ended September 30, 2012, we activated and upgraded 71 per cent more iPhones and 16 per cent more smartphones overall than in the same period last year,” the company said in its release. During the conference call, though, analysts noted that Roger’s third-quarter results only reflected the impact of less than 10 days of iPhone 5 sales following that device’s launch on Sept. 21. As a result, the real test of Rogers’ wireless margin strength will only come during the fourth-quarter, which includes the key holiday shopping season. “Given the shortness of the time from Sept. 21 to the end of the quarter, you know, iPhones and other smartphones were more dominant in the quarter. And we expect that Q4 will be characterized by a much higher iPhone mix,” said Rob Bruce, head of Rogers’ communications division. Mr. Bruce said the company’s reservation system is registering growing demand for the iPhone 5, but downplayed worries that shortages of the device could persist during the fourth-quarter. “At this point predictably, we could probably use more devices than we have. We’re anxious to have more,” he said. “But like most terrific devices, we’re in short supply right now and I know that over time that will ramp up.”
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Oct 24, 2012 10:41:48 GMT -8
Andy Zaky is certainly banging the drum:
"Anyone who isn't buying Apple down here is screwing up in a major way. Apple is going to $1000 next year. No doubt about it."
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 10:44:28 GMT -8
Andy Zaky is certainly banging the drum: "Anyone who isn't buying Apple down here is screwing up in a major way. Apple is going to $1000 next year. No doubt about it." All those idiots that CNBC waltzes out on AAPL you would think that they would have found Zaky and put him on already! Damn!
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 10:46:30 GMT -8
t my house, they all count. Got to keep it real so they always have, and always will. "At my house", heh, see, it's the house that's one major problem. It suits us well, but it is, shall we say, somewhat unique. Selling it would take a long time--my plan is to die here first ;-) Then there's business goodwill--it's real, there's profit coming in every month, but selling would be... interesting... Anyhoo, enough about me!
|
|
|
Post by tofdriver on Oct 24, 2012 10:49:08 GMT -8
I believe we have lift off... can we break the gravity field? The launch is starting to look a bit like this. Funny
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 10:54:55 GMT -8
I used to be an Apple Dealer and sell to schools. Yes they are discounted- 10 to 20%. Those days are long gone. They're a whole lot stingier with the discounts now. You only see 10-20% on the Mac Pro. Low-end, low-margin items are more like 5%. But yes, they do have education discounts. In fact, the prices used to be very easy to find online if you knew where to look. That seems to have changed. They negotiate contracts with school systems, then there is a sub-site of store.apple.com, where staff can put together orders and submit them to their purchasing department, and purchasing can approve online and submit directly to Apple via the site. Also these sites allow faculty & staff to purchase directly for themselves, at a lesser discount.
|
|
|
Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 24, 2012 10:55:07 GMT -8
No it isn't. Challenger was way up there. This is clearly a rocket spiraling out of control near the ocean.
edit: I see you figured it out and deleted the post.
|
|
|
Post by huskerrx on Oct 24, 2012 11:04:19 GMT -8
For what it is worth - I was in a CVS and a woman was paying for goods with food stamps - iphone in pocket Somehow you buy what you want even if you shift money around - I see it. Maybe the federal government could start using passbook for food stamps, etc.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Oct 24, 2012 11:12:29 GMT -8
No it isn't. Challenger was way up there. This is clearly a rocket spiraling out of control near the ocean. edit: I see you figured it out and deleted the post. I believe it was a Trident II test firing from the missile submarine USS Tennessee.
|
|
|
Post by amade1974 on Oct 24, 2012 12:00:30 GMT -8
so, apple introduces new imacs and they won't ship until november/december? the only thing i can read into this is that this will give them an opening to guide lower...
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 24, 2012 12:02:08 GMT -8
Flat last hour, but I'll take closing up any day.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 12:05:28 GMT -8
so, apple introduces new imacs and they won't ship until november/december? the only thing i can read into this is that this will give them an opening to guide lower... There was only a 2% increase in sales last quarter so I don't think the focus will be here at all. More importantly you can order an iPad mini by Friday.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 12:06:29 GMT -8
Not a bad close for AAPL considering the markets were red today.
Glad to see I was only 200k units off for my AT&T estimate, (which is actually rather easy to predict using the ratio based on known Verizon numbers).
Given the AT&T and Verizon numbers, I can at least put to bed most of my worst case scenario fears about a big miss by apple tomorrow. I think we can pencil in a minimum of 24-25 million iphone units - and hope for a upside surprise near 30 million if international sales held up.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 12:08:44 GMT -8
so, apple introduces new imacs and they won't ship until november/december? the only thing i can read into this is that this will give them an opening to guide lower... IMacs mean very little to apples bottom line. Having said that, they will probably sell more of the new iMacs in November/December than they already have for the last 6 months.
|
|