chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 26, 2016 15:33:35 GMT -8
Highest quarterly revenue ever. Ho hum. Just shoot me now.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 26, 2016 15:36:06 GMT -8
Some thoughts... - Also good is cash is now at 216 bln which is equivalent to $39/sh. That should provide resistance to any further major decline under 90. If the current/new government provides a tax break, it'll immensely help Apple with ready cash to buy back as much as 25% of the company and still have enough left. Help from a new Pres. won't happen until at least mid 2017. Don't expect a big move tomorrow, of course they want to burn all the short-term options players. Smaller iPhone coming, not sure how that fits into everything. My big problem is the iPhone 7 with the missing audio jack. The naysayers/technorati will have a field day with that IMO.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Jan 26, 2016 15:56:53 GMT -8
Long-term holder here. Really interested to see where the share price heads from here. I just can't believe that the share price could fall significantly further considering the cash on hand represents $39 of the current share price. Assuming a drop into the 80's, is WS really saying that all of Apple's valuation as well as all future earnings constitutes a relative value of only $40 - $50 per share??? Completely outrageous. I'm hoping that the majority of the negative outlook is currently priced into the stock. Sure I can see a quick further flush of weak hands, but seriously; do shorts want to see this thing go to 0?
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 26, 2016 16:13:54 GMT -8
I expect to see a new series of downgrades in the next 3 weeks. With average price target at 140, much too high. I am out of my trading position and will wait for lower re entry. 80s looks very good in late September with a p/e around 9. Presidential election will keep the market very worried. The world economy will not be fixed this year and the US economy will be limping along. The 6 series phones are amazing and can last owners at least 4 years. TC did not answer the iPhone instore sales program with much confidence. Don't see it giving us much excitement until 2018. Seriously?!!? Do you have amnesia? Just yesterday you were saying between 110-115 after earnings. Before that it was 150 by the end of the year. It's one thing to spout nonsensical price targets as if they were fact, but now you're just randomly tossing out numbers that change on a daily basis. Please stop, It's tiring. I can block it out on the website but unfortunately not on the app. Can we have a separate thread for people's fantasies? (Sorry if I lost my cool here.) (And sorry if quoting made people read it that otherwise would have blocked it.) (Mostly I'm just sorry. In general)
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 26, 2016 16:21:30 GMT -8
Come to think of it, IF we were to be at (or rise to) 110 before ER, we still would certainly fall to 98 AH today. So let's take it like it was meant to be.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 26, 2016 16:29:36 GMT -8
Dear Sponge,
Last quarter ... you got LUCKY. You used that to your advantage for the last three months and we all sat here and put up with your constantly changing prognostications . At this point I have to simply say "You don't have any idea what you are talking about" . Period.
Please give it a rest for a while and give us a break .... we've suffered enough.
Cheers to the longs.
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Post by sponge on Jan 26, 2016 16:34:11 GMT -8
Apple Watch numbers along with iPad and Macs looked awful.
Clearly the economy is having a major impact on sales.
Guidance does not indicate much upbeat news. When Luca talked about world economy being week, it was the first time Apple has pointed that out in a very long time.
Samsung warned of this as well.
We just need to be patient. 2018 is the year I expect big improvements in the iPhone.
The stock will still move thru 30% swings since it is heavily traded and retail owns a ton.
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Post by sponge on Jan 26, 2016 16:37:34 GMT -8
Come to think of it, IF we were to be at (or rise to) 110 before ER, we still would certainly fall to 98 AH today. So let's take it like it was meant to be.[/quote Had my numbers come close I think we would have seen 110-115 next week. WS saw the slowdown in June and I did not believe them.
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Post by sponge on Jan 26, 2016 16:39:46 GMT -8
Dear Sponge, Last quarter ... you got LUCKY. You used that to your advantage for the last three months and we all sat here and put up with your constantly changing prognostications . At this point I have to simply say "You don't have any idea what you are talking about" . Period. Please give it a rest for a while and give us a break .... we've suffered enough. Cheers to the longs. Hey I Lost over $100K, don't see me bitching about all your posts. It is only money. Please block me and you will feel much better. Or just leave like so many.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 26, 2016 16:46:07 GMT -8
My long-term shares still in place - they never get touched but I trade short term options. I had sold my option positions a few weeks ago. The stock was just trading like crap. I highly suspect that before the week is out we'll see a few rounds of downward revisions and PT adjustments - TC's guidance will force that hand. The stock will get hit over the course of a few days and then it will provide a perfect entry again.
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Post by macwire on Jan 26, 2016 16:46:17 GMT -8
I expect to see a new series of downgrades in the next 3 weeks. With average price target at 140, much too high. I am out of my trading position and will wait for lower re entry. 80s looks very good in late September with a p/e around 9. Presidential election will keep the market very worried. The world economy will not be fixed this year and the US economy will be limping along. The 6 series phones are amazing and can last owners at least 4 years. TC did not answer the iPhone instore sales program with much confidence. Don't see it giving us much excitement until 2018. I agree with this. Lol. Broken clock lmfao. What was it yesteday sponge? What will be when AAPL experiences a 1 percent short covering rally day?
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Post by sponge on Jan 26, 2016 17:02:56 GMT -8
Tim Cook needs to double down on channel check security. Bring some of the manufacturing back to the US. In the meantime we can use the data for future gains.
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Post by sponge on Jan 26, 2016 17:06:57 GMT -8
I expect to see a new series of downgrades in the next 3 weeks. With average price target at 140, much too high. I am out of my trading position and will wait for lower re entry. 80s looks very good in late September with a p/e around 9. Presidential election will keep the market very worried. The world economy will not be fixed this year and the US economy will be limping along. The 6 series phones are amazing and can last owners at least 4 years. TC did not answer the iPhone instore sales program with much confidence. Don't see it giving us much excitement until 2018. I agree with this. Lol. Broken clock lmfao. What was it yesteday sponge? What will be when AAPL experiences a 1 percent short covering rally day? I think we can see 10% rallies as well, it won't matter. World economy is slowing down and the markets have yet to really correct. It will take Apple down from here. Their cash pile dos not matter. In fact unless they take out major bonds, I don't see much of a dividend increase come April. Domestic cash is down to about $5 Billion.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 26, 2016 17:54:09 GMT -8
Hey Spongie, here's Shit and here's Shinola. Get to know them.
Ridiculous comments, give it a rest.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 26, 2016 18:11:39 GMT -8
"Apple misses iPhone shipments with 74.8 million vs estimated 75 million" ..... Now read that back and tell me that's not insanity .
Unbelievable.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 26, 2016 19:13:43 GMT -8
"Apple misses iPhone shipments with 74.8 million vs estimated 75 million" ..... Now read that back and tell me that's not insanity . Unbelievable. Now if it was shipped 75 vs 74.8 estimate, you think the headline would have touted a beat? Yeah, I didn't think so either.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 26, 2016 19:19:47 GMT -8
My long-term shares still in place - they never get touched but I trade short term options. I had sold my option positions a few weeks ago. The stock was just trading like crap. I highly suspect that before the week is out we'll see a few rounds of downward revisions and PT adjustments - TC's guidance will force that hand. The stock will get hit over the course of a few days and then it will provide a perfect entry again. I'm with you on this. Never touch the shares. I pretty much just sell out spreads 6-12 months out. Occasionally I'll buy in the money front month calls if we are trending. Ive gotten more aggressive about taking paper cuts on the spreads and moving them out for a loss vs riding them into the ground as I used to do. Taking small losses vs big ones. Hoping that ceases to be an issue later this year but so far, not so encouraging.
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 26, 2016 19:54:18 GMT -8
Just a little ramble while the kid is taking a bath.
Fed day tomorrow. It seems like Apple just told the Fed what not to do.
"We got hit hard by the exchange rate as is any net exporter." Don't raise rates and drive the dollar up more.
"The world economy is in the toilet." Don't raise rates and flush it.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 26, 2016 21:44:19 GMT -8
Excuse me if I am crazy here, but all I thought I read recently was that, based on channel checks, iPhone was in *decline*. iPhone didn't decline in Q1, so F that report.
As for guidance, if the stock can take that bad news without getting too whacked in the short term, that's a great setup for when this PoS world economy eventually comes back (assuming it does - if the US veers into insanity with Bernie Sanders if Hillary gets indicted, and he beats Trump, we're all screwed). I hate Hillary, but at least she is bot & paid for by WS. Sanders is truly a lunatic.
Please Baby Jesus let us get some political sitch where we can get a permanent change in this ridiculous tax law and get our money! Double that divy & Apple becomes an annuity.
AAPL in the 80's would suck for those who want to get out, but it would be a screaming buy IMO.
I wonder what happens to GOOG on 2/1.
Anyway, glad to see the board in general agreement on the Shinola issue.
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Post by ahmpower on Jan 27, 2016 0:15:22 GMT -8
I know, don't be disappointed WTF? These are horrible numbers and the stock goes up???
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 27, 2016 1:06:39 GMT -8
It's 4:00 AM and AAPL opens at 97.20. Not bad.
I know, this is early pre-market and it doesn't signify much. The real roller-coaster ride begins at 9:30. See you all then.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2016 3:49:00 GMT -8
Excuse me if I am crazy here, but all I thought I read recently was that, based on channel checks, iPhone was in *decline*. iPhone didn't decline in Q1, so F that report. As for guidance, if the stock can take that bad news without getting too whacked in the short term, that's a great setup for when this PoS world economy eventually comes back (assuming it does - if the US veers into insanity with Bernie Sanders if Hillary gets indicted, and he beats Trump, we're all screwed). I hate Hillary, but at least she is bot & paid for by WS. Sanders is truly a lunatic. Please Baby Jesus let us get some political sitch where we can get a permanent change in this ridiculous tax law and get our money! Double that divy & Apple becomes an annuity. AAPL in the 80's would suck for those who want to get out, but it would be a screaming buy IMO. I wonder what happens to GOOG on 2/1. Anyway, glad to see the board in general agreement on the Shinola issue. In real terms it did decline. Q1 had 6 days of extra new iPhone sales compared to a year ago, as well a launch in China. All that and units only increased 300k.
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