Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 0:07:15 GMT -8
EARNINGS DAY
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 1:14:45 GMT -8
My late, revised thoughts: EPS: $8.99 iPhones: 25 million iPads: 15 million Macs: 5 million Hoping apple beats on iPhones and proves me wrong
|
|
|
Post by Big Al on Oct 25, 2012 1:18:02 GMT -8
I personally think that we will see a similar price action as in July.
Based on my current earnings estimate (EPS $8.47) at $618.60 (pre-market) the P/E ratio will decrease from now 14.5 to 14.1 after earnings announcement.
Compare it with July, where P/E decreased from 14.7 to 14.1 after earnings. The stock got hammered to $570 (or a P/E ratio of 13.4) before reversing. I think that we have something similar in store today/tomorrow, with the stock possibly going as low as the 200day MA (which currently stands at $587 and would represent a P/E of 13.4, based on EPS $8.47).
Of course, this time guidance is much more important than in July. However, with the sales "time-out" of iPads and iMacs in Oct/Nov I don't think that Q1 guidance will be spectacular.
I won't touch my stocks and LEAPS. Sold my Dec 700 calls back in September and used some of the proceeds in the last few days to scale into Apr 700 calls. Going with 30% cash into earnings.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 25, 2012 2:12:25 GMT -8
iPhone: 28M iPad: 14M
Guidance is most important. No supply constraint suggested on the iPhone, iPad or iPad mini and AAPL will run.
|
|
|
Post by davidcv100 on Oct 25, 2012 3:09:38 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by bernard on Oct 25, 2012 3:16:11 GMT -8
That gives 9.3 Iphone in US from T VZ and S. Applying 33% of total sales gives 27.9M for 4Q
Of course if it was 25% like last Q that would give us a blowout number. Even 30% would give 31M.
|
|
|
Post by bernard on Oct 25, 2012 3:22:30 GMT -8
PM didnt take it too badly up 1.92 at 7:22 EST
|
|
|
Post by Big Al on Oct 25, 2012 3:23:01 GMT -8
That gives 9.3 Iphone in US from T VZ and S. Applying 33% of total sales gives 27.9M for 4Q Of course if it was 25% like last Q that would give us a blowout number. Even 30% would give 31M. I don't know what the supply is in the U.S., but here in Germany it is very hard to get an iPhone 5. All my friends are trying to get one from the Apple store by calling in the day before. No chance. On the other hand, the ones who ordered early got theirs in September and that should count towards Q4.
|
|
|
Post by bernard on Oct 25, 2012 3:26:28 GMT -8
That gives 9.3 Iphone in US from T VZ and S. Applying 33% of total sales gives 27.9M for 4Q Of course if it was 25% like last Q that would give us a blowout number. Even 30% would give 31M. I don't know what the supply is in the U.S., but here in Germany it is very hard to get an iPhone 5. All my friends are trying to get one from the Apple store by calling in the day before. No chance. On the other hand, the ones who ordered early got theirs in September and that should count towards Q4. This is not so much about the I5 sales but the fall off in 4 and 4S sales during the quarter. Apparently, the sales stayed strong for the older phones.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 4:22:58 GMT -8
That gives 9.3 Iphone in US from T VZ and S. Applying 33% of total sales gives 27.9M for 4Q Of course if it was 25% like last Q that would give us a blowout number. Even 30% would give 31M. I don't know what the supply is in the U.S., but here in Germany it is very hard to get an iPhone 5. All my friends are trying to get one from the Apple store by calling in the day before. No chance. On the other hand, the ones who ordered early got theirs in September and that should count towards Q4. But wasn't the biggest ever about 37%? - may have been when 4S was launched - can't remember. Nonetheless that would give us a little over 25mln...so I'm pretty lost. This tells me it can be between 25 and 31?!
|
|
|
Post by tourist on Oct 25, 2012 4:31:08 GMT -8
40% of new customers bought an iPhone. That's 600,000 new subscribers (presumably). Page 13 of Sprint conference call presentation (url in quote above) says there were 883,000 new subscribers IN TOTAL. Wow, those iPhones are contributing 68% of Sprint's new customers!
|
|
|
Post by flyonthewall on Oct 25, 2012 4:31:54 GMT -8
Steve Balmer on Bloomberg right now. Should be interesting!
No hard questions, nothing on the difficulties with cover/keyboard, nor anything about the dual interface confusion; classical Windows & Windows 8. A bit of a puff piece.
Immediately afterwards, Betty Liu said "...under Steve Balmer, Microsoft has gone nowhere." The quote is as close as I can remember.
The main point of the after discussion, was the challenge of getting the Windows 8/Microsoft "ecosystem" to be fleshed out with a big enough influx of software development by 3rd party developers that would compare to Apple and Android.
|
|
|
Post by awcabot on Oct 25, 2012 4:33:07 GMT -8
Overall strong(er) economic data. If Apple Inc. does well tonight, it should shoot up tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 4:39:18 GMT -8
Saw the UE number, what is the GDP number?
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 4:47:53 GMT -8
Positive comments about the return rate/repair rate of the iPhone to other smartphones.
1.5 was inline with my thought, was hoping for more of course.
|
|
|
Post by Rupert on Oct 25, 2012 4:50:29 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Thursday 10/25/2012
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 5:08:44 GMT -8
One analyst is saying what most of us probably feel, there is no small move with AAPL coming, either direction. They keep putting the WS number out there 8.81 now. I can't believe I am concerned about Apple beating that number, but I am very concerned. I leave tomorrow morning so you guys won't have to hear me for several days.
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 5:16:14 GMT -8
The total sales of VZ, AT&T, and Sprint over the past year: Jan '12: 36.72%, 13.6m phones Apr '12: 25.64%, 9m phones Jul '12: 30.38%, 7.9m phones Oct '12: ? , 9.3m phones One analyst is saying what most of us probably feel, there is no small move with AAPL coming, either direction. They keep putting the WS number out there 8.81 now. I can't believe I am concerned about Apple beating that number, but I am very concerned. I leave tomorrow morning so you guys won't have to hear me for several days. Sounds like a time to sell some condors!
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2012 5:17:29 GMT -8
IV pulled back my former $9.62 number to $9.34
I think the iPhone number will save the day......26.44 million
Macs are fine....back to school. The refresh was not as anticipated and will not dropp an already conservative number.
iPad..meh.
GM could make or break my estimate....I am at 42%
|
|
|
Post by roni on Oct 25, 2012 5:24:03 GMT -8
No earnings plays here - just holding Jan 2014 $600's and Jan 2015 $800's Waiting for the next big move up, like the one PG is having today
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 5:31:03 GMT -8
The UK GDP number was much better than expected, good for them.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 5:39:13 GMT -8
Happy voyaging.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 5:39:33 GMT -8
I don't know if I have ever seen / felt this board so uncertain about the numbers in the past.
|
|
|
Post by awcabot on Oct 25, 2012 5:42:16 GMT -8
I don't know if I have ever seen / felt this board so uncertain about the numbers in the past. Two earnings misses in one year will do this to any investor.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Oct 25, 2012 5:45:33 GMT -8
The UK GDP number was much better than expected, good for them. That's what happens when you have an Olympics. Let's wait and see what the next couple of quarters have in store before we declare the UK is out of the woods.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 5:48:43 GMT -8
Wow - Jos. A. Banks offering suits at 70% off PLUS a free Android phone if you buy a suit. What a piece of garbage - people should get it and give it to their babies to throw around in the stroller and chuck.
|
|
|
Post by ccs on Oct 25, 2012 5:51:37 GMT -8
I'm less concerned about the number. It's the street's reaction that befuddles me. April beat - we were punished. July miss - we were rewarded?
Bottomline: Apple will be booking 10's of billions of dollars in the next few months (debt free), while people continue to line up for every iGadget.
|
|
|
Post by bernard on Oct 25, 2012 5:54:21 GMT -8
I don't know what the supply is in the U.S., but here in Germany it is very hard to get an iPhone 5. All my friends are trying to get one from the Apple store by calling in the day before. No chance. On the other hand, the ones who ordered early got theirs in September and that should count towards Q4. But wasn't the biggest ever about 37%? - may have been when 4S was launched - can't remember. Nonetheless that would give us a little over 25mln...so I'm pretty lost. This tells me it can be between 25 and 31?! Almost like a Travis range
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 25, 2012 5:56:10 GMT -8
I don't know if I have ever seen / felt this board so uncertain about the numbers in the past. I think the core issue is that no one has inside visibility to Apple. Even with that visibility, I expect Apple themselves to have a hard time predicting results. So amateur analysts can do a reasonable job by relatively simple extrapolations of recent trends. If those trends break due to reasons that are not visible to the outside, then forecasts by outsiders are going to have their accuracy driven down. Surprises ensue, just like last quarter which is in recent memory. Add the recent sell-off and that shakes confidence even more. I think if amateurs, no matter who they are come close, it is essentially just good luck, due to lack of inside knowledge. For those who are members of Braeburn, where their whole reason for being is these forecasts you can see wildly different estimates, because people are basically just guessing. The iPad sales thread is particularly interesting. If Tim Cook's foreshadowing of about 15M units is true, then almost everyone there is going to wildly miss the iPad number. So my quasi cynical view is that us amateurs had no real reason to believe that we were capable of accurately forecasting Apple results in the first place. So the uncertainty should be the natural state of affairs in my opinion.
|
|
|
Post by Big Al on Oct 25, 2012 5:59:32 GMT -8
I'm less concerned about the number. It's the street's reaction that befuddles me. April beat - we were punished. July miss - we were rewarded? Bottomline: Apple will be booking 10's of billions of dollars in the next few months (debt free), while people continue to line up for every iGadget. Actually, in the short-term (i.e., day after earnings), we were rewarded in April and punished in July.
|
|