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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 6:01:56 GMT -8
IV pulled back my former $9.62 number to $9.34 I think the iPhone number will save the day......26.44 million Macs are fine....back to school. The refresh was not as anticipated and will not dropp an already conservative number. iPad..meh. GM could make or break my estimate....I am at 42% I wish I had your optimism. I think back to the presentation and TC talking about the launch weekend for the iPhone. I am starting to think it was another signal that we should only expect modest growth in the iPhone.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 25, 2012 6:03:10 GMT -8
there is long queue in a lot of theme park in asia, ipad mini could help to ease these queue if the operator hire staff carrying iPad mini attending to the customer in the line, all info can then be transmitted to their counter, customer just need to pay and collect their ticket. thats an example iPad mini can increase productivity and improve customer satisfaction
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 6:04:36 GMT -8
I'm less concerned about the number. It's the street's reaction that befuddles me. April beat - we were punished. July miss - we were rewarded? Bottomline: Apple will be booking 10's of billions of dollars in the next few months (debt free), while people continue to line up for every iGadget. Actually, in the short-term (i.e., day after earnings), we were rewarded in April and punished in July. Exactly
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 6:05:08 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 6:17:46 GMT -8
I don't know if I have ever seen / felt this board so uncertain about the numbers in the past. Two earnings misses in one year will do this to any investor. You got that right. Did not take long for us to turn red. It appears as though the 5% move is showing itself. 200 DMA is 30 points away. It reminds me of CMG. WS was looking for more and the stock was pummeled after having already been shot last qtr.
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Post by ccs on Oct 25, 2012 6:19:04 GMT -8
Actually, in the short-term (i.e., day after earnings), we were rewarded in April and punished in July. Exactly Point being - we don't have a clue which way were going regardless of the number
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 25, 2012 6:24:39 GMT -8
Washington Post reporting a patent ruling favorable to Apple. This sounds like it could be more significant... Any of our resident legal pundits (or just guys/gals with opinions) care to comment?
Posted at 08:46 AM ET, 10/25/2012 Samsung infringed four Apple patents, ITC rules The International Trade Commission has ruled that Samsung has infringed on four Apple patents dealing with multitouch, audio and display technologies.
If administrative law judge Thomas Pender’s Wednesday ruling is upheld, the U.S. may ban those products from import. The judge’s decision is subject to review by the full ITC commission.
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Post by ccs on Oct 25, 2012 6:25:44 GMT -8
Point being - we don't have a clue which way were going regardless of the number Maybe I should rephrase - I don't have a clue! I fully expected us to be at 715 right now.....
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Post by prazan on Oct 25, 2012 6:52:30 GMT -8
IV pulled back my former $9.62 number to $9.34 I think the iPhone number will save the day......26.44 million Macs are fine....back to school. The refresh was not as anticipated and will not dropp an already conservative number. iPad..meh. GM could make or break my estimate....I am at 42% This jibes with my thinking. I've pulled back from $9.75 to $9.25 EPS, with my GM bumping up to 41%. I'm hoping that Apple will beat this number by selling more iPhones than my projected 26.2 million.
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Post by prazan on Oct 25, 2012 7:02:41 GMT -8
I don't know what the supply is in the U.S., but here in Germany it is very hard to get an iPhone 5. All my friends are trying to get one from the Apple store by calling in the day before. No chance. On the other hand, the ones who ordered early got theirs in September and that should count towards Q4. But wasn't the biggest ever about 37%? - may have been when 4S was launched - can't remember. Nonetheless that would give us a little over 25mln...so I'm pretty lost. This tells me it can be between 25 and 31?! This is a difficult call. iPhone 5 sales should be slanted to the U.S., but the new model should be limited to 25% - 33% of sales. The big question is whether international sales held steady. Edit: ignore attachment if it doesn't work. Gotta run. Attachments:
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Post by Iceage on Oct 25, 2012 7:04:33 GMT -8
Point being - we don't have a clue which way were going regardless of the number Maybe I should rephrase - I don't have a clue! I fully expected us to be at 715 right now..... Most people don't have a clue. As a matter of fact, most "pros" don't have clue. I went 100% cash this am and I will re-visit sometimes after earnings/election, ... Too much of a gamble.
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Post by prazan on Oct 25, 2012 7:12:48 GMT -8
I don't know if I have ever seen / felt this board so uncertain about the numbers in the past. I think the core issue is that no one has inside visibility to Apple. Even with that visibility, I expect Apple themselves to have a hard time predicting results. So amateur analysts can do a reasonable job by relatively simple extrapolations of recent trends. If those trends break due to reasons that are not visible to the outside, then forecasts by outsiders are going to have their accuracy driven down. Surprises ensue, just like last quarter which is in recent memory. Add the recent sell-off and that shakes confidence even more. I think if amateurs, no matter who they are come close, it is essentially just good luck, due to lack of inside knowledge. For those who are members of Braeburn, where their whole reason for being is these forecasts you can see wildly different estimates, because people are basically just guessing. The iPad sales thread is particularly interesting. If Tim Cook's foreshadowing of about 15M units is true, then almost everyone there is going to wildly miss the iPad number. So my quasi cynical view is that us amateurs had no real reason to believe that we were capable of accurately forecasting Apple results in the first place. So the uncertainty should be the natural state of affairs in my opinion. Briefly, it's not that simple. Forecasting involves not just trend extrapolation but trying to see around the curve. Some analysts are better at this than others. The skill level at Braeburn varies considerably. Some are good at this, and some are not. But you're right in that this quarter even the estimates of those who are good vary widely.
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Post by theirishguy on Oct 25, 2012 7:24:03 GMT -8
The UK GDP number was much better than expected, good for them. That's what happens when you have an Olympics. Let's wait and see what the next couple of quarters have in store before we declare the UK is out of the woods. +1
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 7:28:10 GMT -8
Point being - we don't have a clue which way were going regardless of the number Maybe I should rephrase - I don't have a clue! I fully expected us to be at 715 right now..... That we can agree on, I expected to be there also. I do expect down this afternoon.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 25, 2012 7:35:47 GMT -8
Past 10 quarters of Apple's high, low and average beat of their own EPS: High: 1.55 (March 2010 and June 2011) Low: 1.07 (last quarter) AVG: 1.38
Applied to this quarter's EPS guidance of $7.65 we get: High: 11.86 Low: 8.19 AVG: 10.56
So, based on this metric alone, I think longs will be okay.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 25, 2012 7:36:32 GMT -8
I think the core issue is that no one has inside visibility to Apple. Even with that visibility, I expect Apple themselves to have a hard time predicting results. So amateur analysts can do a reasonable job by relatively simple extrapolations of recent trends. If those trends break due to reasons that are not visible to the outside, then forecasts by outsiders are going to have their accuracy driven down. Surprises ensue, just like last quarter which is in recent memory. Add the recent sell-off and that shakes confidence even more. I think if amateurs, no matter who they are come close, it is essentially just good luck, due to lack of inside knowledge. For those who are members of Braeburn, where their whole reason for being is these forecasts you can see wildly different estimates, because people are basically just guessing. The iPad sales thread is particularly interesting. If Tim Cook's foreshadowing of about 15M units is true, then almost everyone there is going to wildly miss the iPad number. So my quasi cynical view is that us amateurs had no real reason to believe that we were capable of accurately forecasting Apple results in the first place. So the uncertainty should be the natural state of affairs in my opinion. Briefly, it's not that simple. Forecasting involves not just trend extrapolation but trying to see around the curve. Some analysts are better at this than others. The skill level at Braeburn varies considerably. Some are good at this, and some are not. But you're right in that this quarter even the estimates of those who are good vary widely. I like your term "trying to see around the curve". It gets at my point. I don't believe that amateur analysts have the inside knowledge to see around the curve. For example: 1. Next to none of us saw the new iPad coming. That has channel sell through implications, that very likely impact iPad results for Q3. Basically a surprise that was impossible to predict. 2. None of us have any reliable visibility into iPhone 5 results past that first weekend. We have no idea whether supply constraints capped that number for the rest of the quarter or whether all the supply constraint talk is FUD. This is a data point that we must know to have a chance of reliably forecasting iPhone sales and this data is unknowable to us. Note that Tim said nothing about sales past that first weekend. These issues and many others like them mean that amateur analysts have not much to rely on other than guesses or simple trend extrapolation. The information they need to do better is simply not knowable to them. Not that I want to see all the forecasting go away. It makes for interesting reading in any event.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 7:37:50 GMT -8
This is a difficult call. iPhone 5 sales should be slanted to the U.S., but the new model should be limited to 25% - 33% of sales. The big question is whether international sales held steady. Yep. Another question to consider: here we're seeing that sales of the 4 & 4S held up well. But once the 5 shipped, the 4 & 4S became cheap or "free". So how much did that prop up sales, and by contrast, how much more did they fall off in countries where the 5 did not ship until later? Of course the entire effect is moderated by the fact that the 5 did not ship until nearly the end of the quarter. But still, if some people held off until they could buy the 5, is it the case that some held off buying the 4 until the price drop?
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Post by jeffi on Oct 25, 2012 7:40:05 GMT -8
The positive... 1. Sentiment is negative with the stock down $90 heading into earnings. 2. Typically, after Apple has a bad quarter (see last quarter) they are especially conservative in the next quarter. The last time that happened the stock popped. In other words, this is a good set up. 3. The 200 day moving average provides strong support (at about $588) limiting downside. 4. Last quarter: big miss plus poor guidance and the stock sold off and BOTTOMED at $570 and then traded up to $705 looking ahead to the holiday quarter. Nothing has changed except that we are closer to the holiday quarter. 5. We now know that the iphone5 is a success, ipad mini is real, and an across the board product refresh (including an amazing looking must have desktop iMac) for the holiday quarter. Therefore, next quarter is an assured success. 6. Valuation will be near recent lows after earning release signaling stock price bottom was likely right now. 7. I have aggressively added to my BCS and will more than double down if we see $590ish after earnings. Either way, right now is a very low risk opportunity. This quarters report really does not matter. The next 2 quarters will be fantastic. That's much more important. I like the tentative sentiment on this board. People are concerned for the wrong reasons. Be greedy when others are scared. IMHO.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 7:48:57 GMT -8
The positive... 1. Sentiment is negative with the stock down $90 heading into earnings. 2. Typically, after Apple has a bad quarter (see last quarter) they are especially conservative in the next quarter. The last time that happened the stock popped. In other words, this is a good set up. 3. The 200 day moving average provides strong support (at about $588) limiting downside. 4. Last quarter: big miss plus poor guidance and the stock sold off and BOTTOMED at $570 and then traded up to $705 looking ahead to the holiday quarter. Nothing has changed except that we are closer to the holiday quarter. 5. We now know that the iphone5 is a success, ipad mini is real, and an across the board product refresh (including an amazing looking must have desktop iMac) for the holiday quarter. Therefore, next quarter is an assured success. 6. Valuation will be near recent lows after earning release signaling stock price bottom was likely right now. 7. I have aggressively added to my BCS and will more than double down if we see $590ish after earnings. Either way, right now is a very low risk opportunity. This quarters report really does not matter. The next 2 quarters will be fantastic. That's much more important. I like the tentative sentiment on this board. People are concerned for the wrong reasons. Be greedy when others are scared. IMHO. That's kind of what I'm thinking, only more tentatively ;-)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 7:53:11 GMT -8
I just scaled in Tier 1 or so today. Jun 13 570/625, a nice risk/reward with breakeven a bit under 600. I'm looking to Q2 as the quarter AAPL stomps them bears.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Oct 25, 2012 7:55:21 GMT -8
Normally I'm right there with this kind of, "be greedy when others are scared mentality." However, I've been using margin to buy shares on the way down for a swing trade. I figured I'd actually check my account today and realized I'm pretty darn close to 100% margin. And what does this mean boys & girls? It means if WS reacts poorly to our earnings today I get hit with my first ever margin call. So I went in today and sold some margined shares for a very small loss ( <$100) to give me some decent breathing room. Relying on the 200 day SMA to provide support in the event we sell off. The underlying good news is that I bought into Apple in the mid 100s so I'm playing with house money anyway. Not touching my long shares at all.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 7:56:12 GMT -8
Being smart with margin is always the right call.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 25, 2012 7:56:37 GMT -8
Briefly, it's not that simple. Forecasting involves not just trend extrapolation but trying to see around the curve. Some analysts are better at this than others. The skill level at Braeburn varies considerably. Some are good at this, and some are not. But you're right in that this quarter even the estimates of those who are good vary widely. I like your term "trying to see around the curve". It gets at my point. I don't believe that amateur analysts have the inside knowledge to see around the curve. For example: 1. Next to none of us saw the new iPad coming. That has channel sell through implications, that very likely impact iPad results for this quarter. Basically a surprise that was impossible to predict. 2. None of us have any reliable visibility into iPhone 5 results past that first weekend. We have no idea whether supply constraints capped that number for the rest of the quarter or whether all the supply constraint talk is FUD. This is a data point that we must know to have a chance of reliably forecasting iPhone sales and this data is unknowable to us. Note that Tim said nothing about sales past that first weekend. These issues and many others like them mean that amateur analysts have not much to rely on other than guesses or simple trend extrapolation. The information they need to do better is simply not knowable to them. Not that I want to see all the forecasting go away. It makes for interesting reading in any event. I believe it was Andy Zaky who recently pointed out that Apple has multiples of more data available to them than any outsiders have access to. I think it is very difficult for those not privy to that data to CONSISTENTLY forecast more accurately than Apple. This is why I like to look at Apple's historical EPS beat and am optimistic for this quarter due to their 10-quarter low EPS beat last quarter. One would imagine that their guidance for this quarter was even more conservative than usual due to their "missing their internal targets" last quarter. (Tip of the hat to Gregg). Unless there are some factors unforeseen by Apple this quarter, I'd be surprised if we don't have at least an average EPS beat, which puts us above $10.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 7:59:04 GMT -8
The trend is changing for Apple guidance, I think. So be careful there.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 25, 2012 8:01:49 GMT -8
The trend is changing for Apple guidance, I think. So be careful there. Why do you think the trend is changing? Hasn't the same team been in place for the last 10 quarters? Do you think they consciously are guiding less conservatively or just getting less able to project accurately?
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 25, 2012 8:03:54 GMT -8
Wow - Jos. A. Banks offering suits at 70% off PLUS a free Android phone if you buy a suit. What a piece of garbage - people should get it and give it to their babies to throw around in the stroller and chuck. LOL. Like that!
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 8:05:20 GMT -8
Fiscal Q3 2012 took me by surprise. Same team, but more Tim and no Steve.
I'll be looking to see if guidance trends closer to actual going forward.
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 25, 2012 8:10:20 GMT -8
The positive... 1. Sentiment is negative with the stock down $90 heading into earnings. 2. Typically, after Apple has a bad quarter (see last quarter) they are especially conservative in the next quarter. The last time that happened the stock popped. In other words, this is a good set up. 3. The 200 day moving average provides strong support (at about $588) limiting downside. 4. Last quarter: big miss plus poor guidance and the stock sold off and BOTTOMED at $570 and then traded up to $705 looking ahead to the holiday quarter. Nothing has changed except that we are closer to the holiday quarter. 5. We now know that the iphone5 is a success, ipad mini is real, and an across the board product refresh (including an amazing looking must have desktop iMac) for the holiday quarter. Therefore, next quarter is an assured success. 6. Valuation will be near recent lows after earning release signaling stock price bottom was likely right now. 7. I have aggressively added to my BCS and will more than double down if we see $590ish after earnings. Either way, right now is a very low risk opportunity. This quarters report really does not matter. The next 2 quarters will be fantastic. That's much more important. I like the tentative sentiment on this board. People are concerned for the wrong reasons. Be greedy when others are scared. IMHO. Very good summation of the current situation. Makes me feel a little better about holding my positions (mostly Apr13 thru Jan15 Calls and BCSs)
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Post by nathanstevens on Oct 25, 2012 8:11:05 GMT -8
People are concerned for the wrong reasons. Be greedy when others are scared. IMHO. Totally agree. This worked quite well for me in 2008 and early 2009. I feel that Apple has a very solid long term strategy that will play out over the next several years. One must keep in mind that the implementation of this strategy will not always align on a quarterly basis and therefore won't always benefit those of us with short term positions. However, the company and longer term shareholders will benefit greatly by Apple sticking to their guns and "keeping their foot on the gas".
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 8:21:21 GMT -8
Fiscal Q3 2012 took me by surprise. Same team, but more Tim and no Steve. I'll be looking to see if guidance trends closer to actual going forward. The more they try to aim to actual, the higher the likelihood of misses. This is why I doubt they're actually changing. But we shall see ;-)
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