Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 11:55:59 GMT -8
JAN'14 800/850 bull call spreads...IMHO, fabulous collapsed price here. Horribly undervalued at 8.60 midpoint. Maybe even moreso after earnings? Just 35 or so minutes until the news release...
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 25, 2012 11:57:05 GMT -8
So, since I haven't been doing this that long, I need to ask: aren't these IVs on the high side even for earnings day? No, but you will be amazed at what happens to the IV the next three days. Like a balloon pop why does it deflate? can you explain for the neophytes?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 11:58:29 GMT -8
Last chance to buy...
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 11:59:39 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 12:00:35 GMT -8
Numbers come out between 4:24 and 4:28?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 12:00:45 GMT -8
Here we go...
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 12:01:07 GMT -8
AMZN missed
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Post by nkmho on Oct 25, 2012 12:01:35 GMT -8
No, but you will be amazed at what happens to the IV the next three days. Like a balloon pop why does it deflate? can you explain for the neophytes? Any time there is some sort of uncertainty on the direction of a stock IV rises. So for an event like an earnings report for example, IV/uncertainty shoots up before the report and goes down afterwards after more things are known.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 12:01:40 GMT -8
amazon missing
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 12:02:27 GMT -8
AMZN came in at $13.81 BLN vs. $13.92 BLN est.
Who is going to call the king out and tell him he isn't wearing any clothes already!!!
Whoa - loss of .23 per share vs. loss of .08 est. Holy crap!
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 12:02:42 GMT -8
No, but you will be amazed at what happens to the IV the next three days. Like a balloon pop why does it deflate? can you explain for the neophytes? Because it's a measure of how much volatility traders expect. We expect much more volatility between now and tomorrow, than we do from tomorrow forward.
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 12:02:48 GMT -8
No, but you will be amazed at what happens to the IV the next three days. Like a balloon pop why does it deflate? can you explain for the neophytes? It's better you know the WHAT and WHEN first and focus on the WHY later. The what/when: Tends to rise before major events or earnings. Pretty much guaranteed to spike before earnings. Think of IV as an "anticipation meter" and it might help. The why: IV is some complicated deal relating to bid/ask differential. It affects vega and thus the time value of options (time premium).
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 25, 2012 12:02:54 GMT -8
Going to shower and then do pooja (prayer) to feel relaxed.
Will be back in time for the ride. Hang on tight, guys!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2012 12:03:18 GMT -8
So AMZN will be up $50 tomorrow, right?
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Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 12:03:30 GMT -8
why does it deflate? can you explain for the neophytes? Any time there is some sort of uncertainty on the direction of a stock IV rises. So for an event like an earnings report for example, IV/uncertainty shoots up before the report and goes down afterwards after more things are known. yep exactly how i think of it. A big window of uncertainty needs to be there before earnings, to account for a possible spike up or down once results are released.
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Post by nkmho on Oct 25, 2012 12:03:54 GMT -8
And more importantly, it's actually trading lower b/c of it as well for once.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 12:03:56 GMT -8
LOL Loss of 23 cents per share
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2012 12:04:19 GMT -8
Quick earnings cheat sheet from PED: EPS guidance: $7.65 Gross margin guidance: 41.5% Whisper is 9.81.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 25, 2012 12:04:33 GMT -8
why does it deflate? can you explain for the neophytes? Any time there is some sort of uncertainty on the direction of a stock IV rises. So for an event like an earnings report for example, IV/uncertainty shoots up before the report and goes down afterwards after more things are known. Understand that much. But would it pop or just drop some? any way to predict or determine how much based on pricing action?
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 12:05:16 GMT -8
No way AMZN was/is going to meet expectations as they stand going forward. Wow what will that mean; a PE of 180 instead of 200+? Tragic just tragic.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 25, 2012 12:08:03 GMT -8
why does it deflate? can you explain for the neophytes? It's better you know the WHAT and WHEN first and focus on the WHY later. The what/when: Tends to rise before major events or earnings. Pretty much guaranteed to spike before earnings. Think of IV as an "anticipation meter" and it might help. The why: IV is some complicated deal relating to bid/ask differential. It affects vega and thus the time value of options (time premium). thanks
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 12:08:14 GMT -8
Are we staying in this thread for earnings chatter?
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Post by theirishguy on Oct 25, 2012 12:08:29 GMT -8
So AMZN will be up $50 tomorrow, right? astute as always.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2012 12:11:51 GMT -8
LOL Loss of 23 cents per share Meanwhile, Apple makes 0.23 EPS roughly every 2 1/3 days.
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Post by podboy on Oct 25, 2012 12:12:28 GMT -8
I only have common so I'm not too worried. I just would like to know when would be a good time to sell 20% of my common and buy some spreads. Good luck to everyone. Go aapl
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Post by onemoreanimal on Oct 25, 2012 12:14:32 GMT -8
Anyone have whisper numbers on iPhone, iPad, and Macs?
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 25, 2012 12:14:54 GMT -8
AMZN loss .23c per share, stock down 3.5%. When we pull 9.50 a share will we drop as much?
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Post by prazan on Oct 25, 2012 12:15:09 GMT -8
Whenever I need to bolster my courage, I think of Crazy Horse saying, "Today is a good day to die!"
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Post by zzmac on Oct 25, 2012 12:16:28 GMT -8
For anyone thinking of selling..."Now, when you own stocks, you own pieces of businesses, and they're wonderful businesses. You can pick the best businesses in the world.
"And to buy or sell on current news is just crazy. You're in a wonderful business. You've got people running it for you. You know you're going to do well over five to ten years. And to think news events should cause you to dance in or out of something that's a wonderful game is a terrible mistake. W. Buffett
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Post by podboy on Oct 25, 2012 12:22:10 GMT -8
Thanks zzmac. I forget these points sometimes and het caught up in the moment
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