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Post by rickag on Oct 26, 2012 9:22:43 GMT -8
I'm about to turn around and go short, but I'm hoping we bounce off the 200 day moving average which is like 588 area. If we breach that longs could be screwed... Are you staying short over the weekend? If so, are you not concerned about any comment from AAPL wrt the amount of minis they may have sold are is that irrelevant to your short? Point well made. Hoping for an announcement for gazillions.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 9:26:11 GMT -8
Are you staying short over the weekend? If so, are you not concerned about any comment from AAPL wrt the amount of minis they may have sold are is that irrelevant to your short? Point well made. Hoping for an announcement for gazillions. It's probably fair to say they sold them all.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 26, 2012 9:30:40 GMT -8
Point well made. Hoping for an announcement for gazillions. It's probably fair to say they sold them all. White mini pre-sale is sold out. Black still available.
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Post by darrenhd on Oct 26, 2012 9:35:07 GMT -8
I'm about to turn around and go short, but I'm hoping we bounce off the 200 day moving average which is like 588 area. If we breach that longs could be screwed... Are you staying short over the weekend? If so, are you not concerned about any comment from AAPL wrt the amount of minis they may have sold are is that irrelevant to your short? I'm not short yet - still long (but in the red). I will hold a bit longer but if we go under 585-588 I will probably get out and may initiate a short position or just stay on the sidelines in cash.
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Post by lance on Oct 26, 2012 9:35:21 GMT -8
I agree the stock is cheap at these levels, but if you actually think mangement is accurate in saying 11.75 is the eps in three months time for Q1, aapl will have an EPS of 42.04 and cash in the range of around 128 bill (approx.) and that works out to approx. 137 dollars per share. So if you assume 10XEPS + CASH is the lowest aapl will go that is 10X42.04 + 137 = 557 share cost. I agree 580 and 590 is a cheap price for aapl considering they will certainly beat their estimates. I just wanted to outline what I felt is the worst case scenario for price IMHO.
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Post by jeffi on Oct 26, 2012 10:00:40 GMT -8
More back and forth with D Kass...
per Doug... price to sales of 1.9x (backing out cash) we cant lose site that pc and handset companies trade at 0.3x to 0.4x sales. that is why margins are such an issue - apple earning well above industry normal margins margins are now down three quarters in a row. apple now competing on the basis of hardware features (camera, screen quality, battery life) - and competitors catching up. for now apple can sell product for more than competition. its easy to do that when apple had groundbreaking products that were much better than competition - its much harder to do it when your products are not that much better usually in time this becomes a two handled problem - revenues and margins. that is why margin deterioration freaks out investors. Douglas A. Kass Seabreeze Partners Management Inc.
Doug
PCs are in terminal decline. That's why PE's and other valuation matrices are so low. Business is deteriorating.
Apple is mostly a mobile company. Mobile has secular growth. Valuations should be substantially higher.
For years and years...
Apple's iMac computers maintain there premium pricing and margins and they are not "ground breaking".
Apple's iPods maintain there premium pricing and margins and they are not "ground breaking".
How do you reconcile this? Why would the tablet and smartphone markets be different?
Apple's profit stranglehold (total % of industry profits) have never been stronger in both cell phones and tablets. Demand is frequently greater than supply. Therefore, why would anyone think their margins would come under pressure? What is different?
These arguments are the same ones that have been made year after and have always been wrong. What is different this time?
Apple has never been competing on hardware features. They compete on user experience and software. As an example, Apple was intentionally slow with LTE because it was not ready for prime time (too early, not enough coverage, and horrible battery life). HTC killed their company by being too early.
Apple's eco-system creates both customer lock in and delivers more consumer utility than competing devices. This point (consumer utility) is largely missed by those that don't understand Apple. The richer the app eco-system the more one can do with the device which in turn makes the device more valuable to the consumer. The true value of the device is thus the combination of the hardware and the software (usability and more importantly-- apps) . In this view, competing tablets and smartphones, even if they had better hardware would deliver less consumer utility than Apple's products.
And of course, if you know how to use an iPad or iPhone you know how to use the other. Additionally, if you purchase apps on one device, you can use them on the other. Considering that Android has no material market presence in tablets, this is a major weakness.
Strength begets strength.
Regards Jeff
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 26, 2012 10:05:24 GMT -8
So far, we've got exactly $25.00 between the high and low. $614.00 for the high, $591.00 for the low.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2012 10:05:26 GMT -8
Share price recoving nicely....605....the put and call wall(s) will have some impact now, but watch the last half hour of trading for a break up...maybe?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on Oct 26, 2012 10:11:03 GMT -8
OUCH!Third-quarter figures from IDC suggest that Samsung and Apple account for almost half of smartphones shipped. While HTC and ZTE continue to appear in the top five smartphone vendors worldwide, Nokia has dropped from the rankings and been replaced by Research in Motion.
Being beaten out by RIMM has got to sting! I bought some $NOK a while back on the Win Phone hopes. So far that was a mistake
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Post by appleiie on Oct 26, 2012 10:21:49 GMT -8
The reason that AMZN is up is because the sale of mini ipads has exploded. Because DOJ has protected AMZN's e-book monopoly, AMZN will sell a lot of content on the best reader in the marketplace, the mini ipad. Why hasn't Apple gone up? Life is not fair.
Thanks all for explaining Friday option expiration and the wall of $600 calls. Executed a buy limit order at $600, It was filled today. Used short-term investment money. I will sell in January with a targeted 10%+ return and wait until October, 2013 to repeat again. IMHO, risk adjusted, this beats CDs or utility stocks as the alternative for short-term investment money.
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Post by spoonman on Oct 26, 2012 10:32:32 GMT -8
More back and forth with D Kass... per Doug... price to sales of 1.9x (backing out cash) we cant lose site that pc and handset companies trade at 0.3x to 0.4x sales. that is why margins are such an issue - apple earning well above industry normal margins margins are now down three quarters in a row. apple now competing on the basis of hardware features (camera, screen quality, battery life) - and competitors catching up. for now apple can sell product for more than competition. its easy to do that when apple had groundbreaking products that were much better than competition - its much harder to do it when your products are not that much better usually in time this becomes a two handled problem - revenues and margins. that is why margin deterioration freaks out investors. Douglas A. Kass Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Doug PCs are in terminal decline. That's why PE's and other valuation matrices are so low. Business is deteriorating. Apple is mostly a mobile company. Mobile has secular growth. Valuations should be substantially higher. For years and years... Apple's iMac computers maintain there premium pricing and margins and they are not "ground breaking". Apple's iPods maintain there premium pricing and margins and they are not "ground breaking". How do you reconcile this? Why would the tablet and smartphone markets be different? Apple's profit stranglehold (total % of industry profits) have never been stronger in both cell phones and tablets. Demand is frequently greater than supply. Therefore, why would anyone think their margins would come under pressure? What is different? These arguments are the same ones that have been made year after and have always been wrong. What is different this time? Apple has never been competing on hardware features. They compete on user experience and software. As an example, Apple was intentionally slow with LTE because it was not ready for prime time (too early, not enough coverage, and horrible battery life). HTC killed their company by being too early. Apple's eco-system creates both customer lock in and delivers more consumer utility than competing devices. This point (consumer utility) is largely missed by those that don't understand Apple. The richer the app eco-system the more one can do with the device which in turn makes the device more valuable to the consumer. The true value of the device is thus the combination of the hardware and the software (usability and more importantly-- apps) . In this view, competing tablets and smartphones, even if they had better hardware would deliver less consumer utility than Apple's products. And of course, if you know how to use an iPad or iPhone you know how to use the other. Additionally, if you purchase apps on one device, you can use them on the other. Considering that Android has no material market presence in tablets, this is a major weakness. Strength begets strength. Regards Jeff The ipod and Macs are/were able to keep their high margins b/c a lot of reason but two that stand out 1. there really weren't any decent competitors (fit and finish, ecosystem, usability, interface etc. 2. Macs and PCs are pretty different in interface and what they can do and how they worked. (fit and finish, software etc..) the phone market has Google and Amazon two giant companies that don't often drop the ball like Microsoft. Those two guys didn't exist in the ipod and computer market. Also their slash and burn of margins approach is a bit scary. Selling for cost and making up for it elsewhere is such a crazy philosophy that you do not see in a lot of other industries so that is a bit scary to have to deal with. Best bet is that those strategies start to really bleed out those companies and they knock it off. Google did such a good job copying iOs and samsung did such a good job copying the iphone hardware that there is a much smaller difference between the iphone and other smart phones and macs vs pcs and ipods vs other music players. So i wouldn't look too much to history on the mac and ipod market on this for margins. We are in uncharted territory. If Android phones looked like blackberries or something else that didn't resemble an iphone i'd say ok the apple experience is better but they really are pretty similar. This is in phones only. In tablets the ipad and ipad mini are far superior to all that junk that those companies are putting out. disclaimer: i'm very much long apple so it is frustrating that these other companies are able to get away with copying the whole apple model and then give the farm away for cost.
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Post by nathanstevens on Oct 26, 2012 10:36:27 GMT -8
Apple mentioned that revenues from iTunes, AppStore, iBooks and peripherals were $2.3B for the quarter. Amazons total revs for the quarter were $13.9B.
That means Apple generated a large chunk of 16.5% of Amazon's total revs through sales of electronic media. This market is how Amazon intends to make up for all the electronic media consumption devices that they sell at cost???
Does anyone have data on the percentage of Amazon revs that came from electronic media sales and an approximate number of kindles sold to date?
It would be nice to have an electronic media revenue/device lifespan number to compare. Are kindles generating significantly more rev/device than iOS devices?
Are people using kindles for significantly more years than iOS devices?
If that is the case then Amazon wants to sell a customer a device and have them keep using it for as long as possible to get max after sale revs from that device before upgrading to a new break even device and starting the process over.
Even if IPhone and iPad margins drop significantly, they will still be making significantly more per device lifespan than Amazon and Google for that matter.
What am I missing?
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 26, 2012 10:50:06 GMT -8
Scaled in some more, with a Mar 13 BCS, break-even in the 590s somewhere. Bought at 609, just time in time to get head-faked...again. I'll manage somehow. Back up to my typical level of AAPL exposure for now (around 2/3 invested). We'll see what happens.
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Post by traitorjoe on Oct 26, 2012 11:02:35 GMT -8
Apple mentioned that revenues from iTunes, AppStore, iBooks and peripherals were $2.3B for the quarter. Amazons total revs for the quarter were $13.9B. That means Apple generated a large chunk of 16.5% of Amazon's total revs through sales of electronic media. This market is how Amazon intends to make up for all the electronic media consumption devices that they sell at cost??? Does anyone have data on the percentage of Amazon revs that came from electronic media sales and an approximate number of kindles sold to date? It would be nice to have an electronic media revenue/device lifespan number to compare. Are kindles generating significantly more rev/device than iOS devices? Are people using kindles for significantly more years than iOS devices? If that is the case then Amazon wants to sell a customer a device and have them keep using it for as long as possible to get max after sale revs from that device before upgrading to a new break even device and starting the process over. Even if IPhone and iPad margins drop significantly, they will still be making significantly more per device lifespan than Amazon and Google for that matter. What am I missing? All good questions, couple general notes - AMZN never provides clues to sales figures by unit (would not like the comps to AAPL) One problem is that AMZN includes all game players etc. in their electronic media sales - they do this on purpose to inflate numbers and make kindle etc. look like they might be high - they sell tons of xbox, playstations, nintendo etc. - particularly during holiday qtr. lastly, you will drive yourself nuts trying to figure out why AMZN stock elevates on poor performance, Wheelie was right on point that this stock almost wholly owned and pushed/pulled by large Hedgies to their advantage- Bezos worked on WS before founding AMZN as well
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Post by Lstream on Oct 26, 2012 11:05:20 GMT -8
For the first time ever, I played around with some weeklies. What a ride.
Bought Nov Week 1 595 calls @ 9.78. Sold a few minutes ago for $17.78
About an hour later bought Nov Week 1 $610 calls @ $6.42. Sold them for $8.63
Not something I am going to try very often, since normally I cannot pay close enough attention to deal with the rapid fluctuations these go through.
This no where near makes up for the carnage (on paper so far) in the rest of my options portfolio that has taken place in the last few weeks.
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Post by highway2heel on Oct 26, 2012 11:16:40 GMT -8
'carnage' is putting it mildly
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Post by Lstream on Oct 26, 2012 11:17:39 GMT -8
'carnage' is putting it mildly How about "unprecedented mayhem and carnage" then?
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 26, 2012 11:20:08 GMT -8
i have bought a samsung galaxyS3 phone, the user experience is different from using iPhone, its just like using PC and using Mac. I lot of feature in the android phone is hidden and user need to learn to use them. a lot of task require more action to get it done. The service support also not good, a friend of mine send her 3 months old galaxy S3 for repair. it took 2 week to repair, she end up using her old phone during this period. In iphone case it would be one to one exchange. in term of user experience ( both software and support ), apple win
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 26, 2012 11:37:25 GMT -8
Good to know about Android. I've only held it in my hand, never used it.
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Post by highway2heel on Oct 26, 2012 11:38:28 GMT -8
'carnage' is putting it mildly How about "unprecedented mayhem and carnage" then? That's better...I need a glass of water...I'm dehydrated from crying...
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Post by traitorjoe on Oct 26, 2012 11:41:54 GMT -8
So we all know this game on Fridays by now Will the close be just under $605 or drop to just under $600 ?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2012 11:42:22 GMT -8
605 narrowing in as the end of weekly pin...
Still, I had forecast a green finish for today so hope remains for a last ditch effort after the calls and puts are rolled, tolled or sold.....
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 26, 2012 12:02:10 GMT -8
Nice round numbers...
High of the day: $614.00 Low of the day: $591.00 close: $604.00
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coma
Member
Posts: 520
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Post by coma on Oct 26, 2012 12:04:51 GMT -8
The EO's didn't count with their toes this time.
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Post by nathanstevens on Oct 26, 2012 12:05:59 GMT -8
Ordered 1 iPad mini - 32gb slate, wifi for my wife today. Delivery 11/2. I imagine it won't be long after that one arrives that another one will be on the way. We aren't very good at sharing
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Post by nathanstevens on Oct 26, 2012 12:14:50 GMT -8
Also exchanged more shares for LEAP spreads today. Phase 2 of 5. ATV - Hobby>2012 Beloved Hobby>2013 ?
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 26, 2012 12:33:57 GMT -8
Our chart still sucks. Could not hold 609-610, so probably another trip to the 500's woodshed. I'm rolling parts of my Jan 13 400-500 spread into more naked Jan 14 750's, trying to get the cost basis down.
After digesting all the earnings info (and the great perspectives and info found here) I've come to a couple of conclusions: Long term Apple is doing a good job setting up for future growth in all departments - and that they are in a period of instability as these necessary undates to the product line handicap their short term growth. It would have been nice if they had gotten the mini out the door a few weeks ago and we didn't have all this flack about the iPhone 5 production issues and availability, but at least we don't seem to have any major issues with the products themselves, which would be worse (fingers crossed on the mini). Trying to put the supply constraints into a positive light one could say that the high demand and relative scarcity may add to the allure of the products.
It is a cycle that we just have to wait out. I wouldn't bet on a big turnaround until after Jan expirations. But I do see 700+ after we get the April numbers.
Hang in there!
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Post by prazan on Oct 26, 2012 12:35:26 GMT -8
Reaction to earnings could have been worse, though it has been such a dreadful month it's hard to imagine what "worse" could be. Of all the theories proposed regarding Amazon's stock price, I by far prefer the one that posits he sold his soul to the devil. He even looks like Faust.
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Post by nathanstevens on Oct 26, 2012 12:45:14 GMT -8
Of all the theories proposed regarding Amazon's stock price, I by far prefer the one that posits he sold his soul to the devil. He even looks like Faust. Ponzi
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 26, 2012 12:54:59 GMT -8
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