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Post by greedynoob on Oct 26, 2012 12:57:39 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2012 13:08:08 GMT -8
Apple mentioned that revenues from iTunes, AppStore, iBooks and peripherals were $2.3B for the quarter. Amazons total revs for the quarter were $13.9B. That means Apple generated a large chunk of 16.5% of Amazon's total revs through sales of electronic media. This market is how Amazon intends to make up for all the electronic media consumption devices that they sell at cost??? Does anyone have data on the percentage of Amazon revs that came from electronic media sales and an approximate number of kindles sold to date? It would be nice to have an electronic media revenue/device lifespan number to compare. Are kindles generating significantly more rev/device than iOS devices? Are people using kindles for significantly more years than iOS devices? If that is the case then Amazon wants to sell a customer a device and have them keep using it for as long as possible to get max after sale revs from that device before upgrading to a new break even device and starting the process over. Even if IPhone and iPad margins drop significantly, they will still be making significantly more per device lifespan than Amazon and Google for that matter. What am I missing? Interesting post - this is the first time I have seen someone compare apples ecosystem revenue directly to amazons. If apples digital sales were valued at the same multiple as amazons, can you imagine what the share price would be?
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Post by fas550 on Oct 26, 2012 13:14:03 GMT -8
I am sick and tired of watching Amazon defy all logic like this. There is one and only one way to fix this....I am going long Amazon. If that doesn't drive it off the cliff, nothing will. is it possible investors use some other metric or value something more than the hard data for amzn? I do not have a clue, but if the numbers were a drastic miss, and that yields a 5% gain, something has to be triggering that. Maybe it doesn't add up with common valuations but something different? i dunno I don't get it, but good for them. Our day has come often, and will come again soon. I am going to have a coronary: AMZN up over 6% for the day and up AH. What is really crazy are the estimates for the next 3 qtrs. I am determined some how to make money out of the estimates vs reality. There is no way in hell they are going to come close to estimates unless the come out with the Amazon anti-Gravity transport, teleportation and communication device in the next qtr that has margins of 400% and can ship in quantities! Seriously this stock is the poster child for a REBUTTAL for any Harvard class on how the value of companies are determined.
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 26, 2012 13:17:19 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Oct 26, 2012 13:39:36 GMT -8
Adam T:
Apple has been deferring small amounts of revenue for the sale of various devices for over a year - $11 per iPhone and iPad and $22 per Mac. This is for iCloud service and it is amortized I believe over eight quarters. This is a small amount of revenue to begin with but the real "impact" from a gross margin perspective in any given quarter only comes from the revenue delta between a given quarter and the same quarter the previous year. Since revenue is consistently ramping, there is a slight drag on GM% as a result of this deferral but it is negligible.
Apple loves coming up with reasons GM% will be lower than it actually is and every quarter there are "one time" benefits that cause Apple to crush its GM% guidance. This is probably the right move on Apple's part but the gig is up. Its suppliers and competitors all know that Apple's gross margins are insanely high. There's no longer a reason to consistently low ball this guidance by 150+ bps ever quarter. Oh well, it'll likely never change.
Adam: thanks honestly. Things you said I did not know. I read their rev rec statement on the iPhone and the way I interpret it is upon delivery they recognize 50% and the other half they recognize over the next two years. Obviously as the number of phones gets bigger this becomes more of a factor in the top line.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 26, 2012 13:41:35 GMT -8
Great link. This provides all of us with some much needed perspective. Thanks.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 26, 2012 13:54:19 GMT -8
When will Bezo the clown run out of money?seekingalpha.com/article/953461-amazon-com-s-ceo-discusses-q3-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleTom Szkutak - Senior Vice President and CFO Thanks, Sean. I’ll begin with comments on our third quarter financial results. Trailing 12 month operating cash flow increased 8% to $3.37 billion. Trailing 12 month free cash flow decreased 31% to $1.06 billion. Return on invested capital was 10%, down from 17%. ROIC trailing 12 month free cash flow divided by average total assets minus current liabilities excluding the current portion of long-term debt over five quarter end. ........ Accounts payable increased 28% to $8.37 billion and accounts payable days increased to 75 from 72 in the prior year. Our Q3 2012 capital expenditures were $716 million. IMHO: Their entire growth is based on paying their suppliers later and later each quarter.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 26, 2012 14:07:02 GMT -8
Reaction to earnings could have been worse, though it has been such a dreadful month it's hard to imagine what "worse" could be. Of all the theories proposed regarding Amazon's stock price, I by far prefer the one that posits he sold his soul to the devil. He even looks like Faust. Didn't someone say not too long ago that October is historically the best month for AAPL? Damn them. More than ever these bastards are changing the patterns - sell offs, post-ER price action, etc. Pain range seems to be the only sure thing these days.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 26, 2012 14:16:26 GMT -8
When will Bezo the clown run out of money?seekingalpha.com/article/953461-amazon-com-s-ceo-discusses-q3-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleTom Szkutak - Senior Vice President and CFO Thanks, Sean. I’ll begin with comments on our third quarter financial results. Trailing 12 month operating cash flow increased 8% to $3.37 billion. Trailing 12 month free cash flow decreased 31% to $1.06 billion. Return on invested capital was 10%, down from 17%. ROIC trailing 12 month free cash flow divided by average total assets minus current liabilities excluding the current portion of long-term debt over five quarter end. ........ Accounts payable increased 28% to $8.37 billion and accounts payable days increased to 75 from 72 in the prior year. Our Q3 2012 capital expenditures were $716 million. IMHO: Their entire growth is based on paying their suppliers later and later each quarter. Thanks for posting. The question is when the numbers compel Mgt to admit Mea Culpa on their business case/strategy. I can't believe they aren't already there. When the balance tips it is going to be the mother of all declines in market history eclipsing NFLX, RIMM et al... Although I am rarely surprised by the BS some put out to support dogs such as this. How far will they go? PE:400? We should have a competition for guessing the highest PE AMZN gets to before the decent. One thing for sure, it is coming. The only question is when/at what point. My best estimate right now is the next qtr. Second best guess the qtr following that.
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Post by rosie on Oct 26, 2012 14:27:43 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 26, 2012 14:47:31 GMT -8
Good to know about Android. I've only held it in my hand, never used it. I was in a Verizon store today, and took a look at the Galaxy 3 just in hopes of restoring my faith in the IPhone (Needless to say, I was a bit shaken by the call yesterday.) It is a worthy competitor. Big screen, very nice look, but if Doug Kass thinks the IPhone 5 is cardboard he ought to try the Galaxy 3. Very plastic and light feel to it, sort of like a play phone. The gentleman above mentioned the support being poor, and the learning curve for it. Sort of like the Blackberry. Sad thing is that without the supply constraints, we probably would have sold closer to 27MM phones, and beaten the analysts' EPS and revenue numbers with room to spare.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2012 14:47:42 GMT -8
More back and forth with D Kass... ... Regards Jeff Margins are down (not really, if you consider 40% the benchmark, and not those 44% or 47% fliers) because Apple just revamped its product line and that costs more at first; but then costs come back down. Apple maintains its margins because it offers a premium product and experience, as evidenced by #1 customer satisfaction ratings, retention rates, and Android->iOS switch rates. Edit: Also, pricing power due to massive purchases from suppliers. And you misspelled "their" twice there, Jeff. Trying to win over Kass on Apple is like getting my pit bull to learn obedience. Too much terrier in there. I think Kass is so vested in his position, his ego won't allow him to come around. Just saw this genius Paul Kedrosky on Bloomberg telling Apple it needs to cut margins, or it will be undercut in pricing like Compaq and IBM did with PCs! Anyone know Compaq's ticker symbol? Or a link to where I can get a new IBM PC? Kendrosky also noted how much cheaper Kindles are. Yes, chase those zero margins and operating losses! Kedrosky actually claimed Apple will lose developers as it loses market share to the cheapos. Such clueless bullshit for various reasons, mostly because people who want cheapos don't buy apps, and people who buy premium products do buy apps and make developers money. Plus, fragmentation and forking of Android (something Windows never faced, being closed-source) makes development harder and more expensive. (he didn't even take notice that Kindles run forked Android, so don't count towards developer share). Plus, Samsung will probably dump Android eventually for its own OS or Windows. BTW, Bloomberg's Cory Johnson is a pretty sharp cat (by tech journalist standards, granted, a low bar) and is typically worth listening to when Apple comes up.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 26, 2012 14:55:41 GMT -8
Kedrosky was a previous advisor to a Canadian venture capital fund. That fund is dead and gone. With advisors like this, I wonder why?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 26, 2012 14:57:32 GMT -8
For the first time ever, I played around with some weeklies. What a ride. Bought Nov Week 1 595 calls @ 9.78. Sold a few minutes ago for $17.78 About an hour later bought Nov Week 1 $610 calls @ $6.42. Sold them for $8.63 Not something I am going to try very often, since normally I cannot pay close enough attention to deal with the rapid fluctuations these go through. This no where near makes up for the carnage (on paper so far) in the rest of my options portfolio that has taken place in the last few weeks. I'm down big in my portfolio, but I take solace in trying to get cash flow during this time, until we hopefully come back. On the big downtrend we have been in, it was profitable selling calls on the pops to 645, 652, and 635, and provided some nice income. But it would be nice to see a relief rally back to the 640s so I can feel good about my account again.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 26, 2012 14:59:31 GMT -8
What a wild day. Seems on days that apple is down around a percent or so Im actually relieved. I do miss the good old days when apple stock was in an uptrend.
My break even for the year is 590. Yes I did start buying at 520 in Febuary however I did trade a lot so thats why my break even is much higher.
I am not liking this and I am getting concerned. I almost pulled the sell trigger today at 593 but forced myself not to.
Maybe Im just not cut out for all of this. If I walk away at 604 I walk away with an 800 dollar gain for the year.... which isnt much considering I was up over 6k.
I have a delima. I know apple is a great company and they make fantastic products and I do think its valued low. However, a stock is worth only what someone else is willing to pay and it seems for now that many do not want to pay these current prices which has me very concerned for more downward movement.
I really would like to stay put and wait till apple recovers but what if it doesnt recover and keeps dropping? I have seen what happened to other stocks like netflix, rimm etc... they have never recovered and probably will never recover. The same thing can happen to apple. I guess the question is if apple has reached its peak. I know many of you cannot answer this and that its just speculation on weather or not apple will regain 700 ever again.
What are other longs thoughts on the past month or so? I am all in at the moment, but even if I could add more here Im not sure I would want to keep pouring money into a falling knife.
Just like a car that you keep on having to repair just to keep it running then something else goes wrong and you end up pouring more money into it.. there is a time where you just have to walk away.
Im not sure that point has come just yet and I dont know about many of you but this 100 point drop has hurt a lot.
Of course I would rather my post be more bullish and the fact is I am still in apple. If this were any other stock I would have sold a long time ago.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 26, 2012 15:08:28 GMT -8
Try doing more practice trading with virtual money. Get used to the give and take. Watch Stocktwits and try and feel the difference between wishful thinking and insight.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 26, 2012 15:11:32 GMT -8
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 26, 2012 15:12:38 GMT -8
Try doing more practice trading with virtual money. Get used to the give and take. Watch Stocktwits and try and feel the difference between wishful thinking and insight. That is a great idea but as of now most of my gain for the year is gone. I really want to make it back but if apple isnt going back to 700 then I need to start making some decisions. I know this isnt a popular point of view on this board.. but apple is not going up at the moment its in a very clear downtrend.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 26, 2012 15:17:28 GMT -8
Day trading is one way to accomplish progress. Assemble 10 stocks. watch closely. Set a target profit per trade. $ 200 per day ?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 26, 2012 15:23:48 GMT -8
Try doing more practice trading with virtual money. Get used to the give and take. Watch Stocktwits and try and feel the difference between wishful thinking and insight. That is a great idea but as of now most of my gain for the year is gone. I really want to make it back but if apple isnt going back to 700 then I need to start making some decisions. I know this isnt a popular point of view on this board.. but apple is not going up at the moment its in a very clear downtrend. I'm not so sure about that "downtrend". Every uptrend and every downtrend ends..but you can only see it in hindsight. Today we sold off early, rolled along a nice baseline in the 590's and then came up on very heavy volume. The sellers who wanted to sell sold. Buyers who wanted to reenter after all the news was out began to reenter. I thought yesterday we would see action like this and I thought we would end green. (we tried!) why not just sit back for a couple of weeks and let things play out?
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Post by Lstream on Oct 26, 2012 15:51:29 GMT -8
Try doing more practice trading with virtual money. Get used to the give and take. Watch Stocktwits and try and feel the difference between wishful thinking and insight. That is a great idea but as of now most of my gain for the year is gone. I really want to make it back but if apple isnt going back to 700 then I need to start making some decisions. I know this isnt a popular point of view on this board.. but apple is not going up at the moment its in a very clear downtrend. Honestly Nate, what is not popular is people moaning and groaning about their losses. It is like when I play poker, when the losers keep crying about their bad luck, how the world is against them, and how they don't deserve to be losing. Man up. If you can't afford to play the game and lose, then get out. Whining about losses changes nothing.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 26, 2012 16:07:53 GMT -8
What a wild day. Seems on days that apple is down around a percent or so Im actually relieved. I do miss the good old days when apple stock was in an uptrend. My break even for the year is 590. Yes I did start buying at 520 in Febuary however I did trade a lot so thats why my break even is much higher. I am not liking this and I am getting concerned. I almost pulled the sell trigger today at 593 but forced myself not to. Maybe Im just not cut out for all of this. If I walk away at 604 I walk away with an 800 dollar gain for the year.... which isnt much considering I was up over 6k. I have a delima. I know apple is a great company and they make fantastic products and I do think its valued low. However, a stock is worth only what someone else is willing to pay and it seems for now that many do not want to pay these current prices which has me very concerned for more downward movement. I really would like to stay put and wait till apple recovers but what if it doesnt recover and keeps dropping? I have seen what happened to other stocks like netflix, rimm etc... they have never recovered and probably will never recover. The same thing can happen to apple. I guess the question is if apple has reached its peak. I know many of you cannot answer this and that its just speculation on weather or not apple will regain 700 ever again. What are other longs thoughts on the past month or so? I am all in at the moment, but even if I could add more here Im not sure I would want to keep pouring money into a falling knife. Just like a car that you keep on having to repair just to keep it running then something else goes wrong and you end up pouring more money into it.. there is a time where you just have to walk away. Im not sure that point has come just yet and I dont know about many of you but this 100 point drop has hurt a lot. Of course I would rather my post be more bullish and the fact is I am still in apple. If this were any other stock I would have sold a long time ago. I will say this politely. Please sell everything once and for all.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 26, 2012 16:09:44 GMT -8
Try doing more practice trading with virtual money. Get used to the give and take. Watch Stocktwits and try and feel the difference between wishful thinking and insight. That is a great idea but as of now most of my gain for the year is gone. I really want to make it back but if apple isnt going back to 700 then I need to start making some decisions. I know this isnt a popular point of view on this board.. but apple is not going up at the moment its in a very clear downtrend. Please take your expert technical analysis to the AAPL chart thread where it belongs. I'm confident those over there will appreciate your insight.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 26, 2012 16:11:09 GMT -8
That is a great idea but as of now most of my gain for the year is gone. I really want to make it back but if apple isnt going back to 700 then I need to start making some decisions. I know this isnt a popular point of view on this board.. but apple is not going up at the moment its in a very clear downtrend. I'm not so sure about that "downtrend". Every uptrend and every downtrend ends..but you can only see it in hindsight. Today we sold off early, rolled along a nice baseline in the 590's and then came up on very heavy volume. The sellers who wanted to sell sold. Buyers who wanted to reenter after all the news was out began to reenter. I thought yesterday we would see action like this and I thought we would end green. (we tried!) why not just sit back for a couple of weeks and let things play out? Sounds like you think the bottom may be in, Ensign? Though if I remember correctly, back in May at the bottom you did some nice prose recalling a past time when you bought, and something about the local weather conditions at the time.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 26, 2012 16:11:58 GMT -8
What a wild day. Seems on days that apple is down around a percent or so Im actually relieved. I do miss the good old days when apple stock was in an uptrend. My break even for the year is 590. Yes I did start buying at 520 in Febuary however I did trade a lot so thats why my break even is much higher. I am not liking this and I am getting concerned. I almost pulled the sell trigger today at 593 but forced myself not to. Maybe Im just not cut out for all of this. If I walk away at 604 I walk away with an 800 dollar gain for the year.... which isnt much considering I was up over 6k. I have a delima. I know apple is a great company and they make fantastic products and I do think its valued low. However, a stock is worth only what someone else is willing to pay and it seems for now that many do not want to pay these current prices which has me very concerned for more downward movement. I really would like to stay put and wait till apple recovers but what if it doesnt recover and keeps dropping? I have seen what happened to other stocks like netflix, rimm etc... they have never recovered and probably will never recover. The same thing can happen to apple. I guess the question is if apple has reached its peak. I know many of you cannot answer this and that its just speculation on weather or not apple will regain 700 ever again. What are other longs thoughts on the past month or so? I am all in at the moment, but even if I could add more here Im not sure I would want to keep pouring money into a falling knife. Just like a car that you keep on having to repair just to keep it running then something else goes wrong and you end up pouring more money into it.. there is a time where you just have to walk away. Im not sure that point has come just yet and I dont know about many of you but this 100 point drop has hurt a lot. Of course I would rather my post be more bullish and the fact is I am still in apple. If this were any other stock I would have sold a long time ago. I will say this politely. Please sell everything once and for all. Oh Nate. If you're real, here's my advice. Listen to AT. Get out. And put your money in a nice, safe CD at your local branch.
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Post by roni on Oct 26, 2012 16:54:59 GMT -8
I don't know whether the bottom is in or not, but I opened an April position today. As of the close today, it is still a record year by a whole, whole lot. I got my Apples and I am ready for an uptrend
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2012 18:20:13 GMT -8
If I wasn't already all in - I would be buying more 2014 LEAPS today.
Have a couple of Jan 13 calls left to sell, but I am confident we will see at least $700 again before Jan expiration.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 26, 2012 18:36:33 GMT -8
No one should be telling me to sell unless they have sold all of their shares otherwise you are a hypocrite.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2012 18:39:58 GMT -8
I guess I am not allowed to be worried about apples future? You are, but this is not your therapist's office, where he would be paid for you to ignore his advice every session.
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Post by jeffi on Oct 26, 2012 19:16:08 GMT -8
More back and forth with D Kass... ... Regards Jeff Margins are down (not really, if you consider 40% the benchmark, and not those 44% or 47% fliers) because Apple just revamped its product line and that costs more at first; but then costs come back down. Apple maintains its margins because it offers a premium product and experience, as evidenced by #1 customer satisfaction ratings, retention rates, and Android->iOS switch rates. Edit: Also, pricing power due to massive purchases from suppliers. And you misspelled "their" twice there, Jeff. Trying to win over Kass on Apple is like getting my pit bull to learn obedience. Too much terrier in there. I think Kass is so vested in his position, his ego won't allow him to come around. Just saw this genius Paul Kedrosky on Bloomberg telling Apple it needs to cut margins, or it will be undercut in pricing like Compaq and IBM did with PCs! Anyone know Compaq's ticker symbol? Or a link to where I can get a new IBM PC? Kendrosky also noted how much cheaper Kindles are. Yes, chase those zero margins and operating losses! Kedrosky actually claimed Apple will lose developers as it loses market share to the cheapos. Such clueless bullshit for various reasons, mostly because people who want cheapos don't buy apps, and people who buy premium products do buy apps and make developers money. Plus, fragmentation and forking of Android (something Windows never faced, being closed-source) makes development harder and more expensive. (he didn't even take notice that Kindles run forked Android, so don't count towards developer share). Plus, Samsung will probably dump Android eventually for its own OS or Windows. BTW, Bloomberg's Cory Johnson is a pretty sharp cat (by tech journalist standards, granted, a low bar) and is typically worth listening to when Apple comes up. Hey thanks! Their is hope for me. There, Their.
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