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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 21:56:29 GMT -8
Only 12 weeks until January earnings!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 28, 2012 22:21:56 GMT -8
Still digesting October earnings, thanks. Heck, is the 10-K even out yet?! (Based on past history, looks like it'll be released by the end of the week.) Apple's future has never looked more secure, but there's plenty of fresh uncertainty in the markets, with Hurricane Sandy being no small contributor. That's probably why my BCS buys are of a more "neutral" stance in terms of breakeven prices.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 28, 2012 22:34:01 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 22:38:27 GMT -8
Didn't realise that, thanks for the tip! I guess if the EOs in New York can't get into work to throw us little guys around, then they don't want anyone else trading and screwing up their plans.
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Post by rosie on Oct 28, 2012 22:53:26 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 28, 2012 23:05:49 GMT -8
That's technically "bad news". For surely, there is a yield issue this or supply constraint that will come back to bite Apple at the worst possible time. Yeah right. I do believe they call this a home run or something. It'll be interesting to see what initial sales are. (IIRC, Apple only releases preorder numbers for iPhones.)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 23:18:37 GMT -8
It's kind of bizarre that there has been ZERO coverage of the iPad 4th gen.
100% of media & consumer interest appears to be in the iPad mini.
To think that just 6 months ago people were camping out in line to be the first to buy an iPad 3, yet no one gives any notice whatsoever to the iPad 4, which arrived 6 months early. It's been completely overshadowed.
If apple does release first weekend sales figures for the iPad mini, I don't think we will hear anything about the iPad 4 sales.
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 29, 2012 0:09:42 GMT -8
I can't say I'm much excited about the 4th gen iPad either--it sure feels like they upgraded 1) to make it lightning and 2) to differentiate across models more, by speed. A lot of us had heard all along, after all, that the next iPad was supposed to have in-cell and be thinner, and so I imagine folks will hold out for that revision. (I have a 3rd gen iPad and don't plan on upgrading, though I did order a mini.)
EDIT: Oh, international LTE. That's a pretty big deal too, I guess.
I must say, though, that the release of all these new products at once really makes me wonder what's on tap for 2013. Perhaps they are going to integrate fingerprint sensors into all the iOS products at once?
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Post by fas550 on Oct 29, 2012 0:27:32 GMT -8
It's kind of bizarre that there has been ZERO coverage of the iPad 4th gen. 100% of media & consumer interest appears to be in the iPad mini. To think that just 6 months ago people were camping out in line to be the first to buy an iPad 3, yet no one gives any notice whatsoever to the iPad 4, which arrived 6 months early. It's been completely overshadowed. If apple does release first weekend sales figures for the iPad mini, I don't think we will hear anything about the iPad 4 sales. Regarding the release of the iPad 4 Technically there was no compelling reason and it would be a poor business choice to do it just because it is a faster processor. Competitively nothing comes close to the 3 and the competitors shortfalls have little or nothing to do with the processor. They must have known doing this so soon would make many of the iPad 3 owners feel like Chumps so doing this was not without risk of alienating arguably some of the most loyal, high-margin customers. One would think they would have held off till at least spring next year so trying to come up with a good reason as to why they were pushed to do it earlier leaves better margins through lower COGS of the newer processor now or very soon as the most likely reason.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2012 1:05:08 GMT -8
And I chose tonight/morning to stay up for pre-market. On a brighter note (depending on view) I sold my Ford GT and a 1969 Mustang Boss 429 over the weekend. Culling the herd for my new wedding limousine service (using 1930s luxury cars). That and the Tesla Model S goes into production in a couple months.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2012 1:08:04 GMT -8
Regarding the release of the iPad 4 Technically there was no compelling reason and it would be a poor business choice to do it just because it is a faster processor. Competitively nothing comes close to the 3 and the competitors shortfalls have little or nothing to do with the processor. They must have known doing this so soon would make many of the iPad 3 owners feel like Chumps so doing this was not without risk of alienating arguably some of the most loyal, high-margin customers. One would think they would have held off till at least spring next year so trying to come up with a good reason as to why they were pushed to do it earlier leaves better margins through lower COGS of the newer processor now or very soon as the most likely reason. It doesn't make sense unless you are trying to further distance yourself from new competitors.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2012 1:21:11 GMT -8
I can't say I'm much excited about the 4th gen iPad either--it sure feels like they upgraded 1) to make it lightning and 2) to differentiate across models more, by speed. A lot of us had heard all along, after all, that the next iPad was supposed to have in-cell and be thinner, and so I imagine folks will hold out for that revision. (I have a 3rd gen iPad and don't plan on upgrading, though I did order a mini.) EDIT: Oh, international LTE. That's a pretty big deal too, I guess. I must say, though, that the release of all these new products at once really makes me wonder what's on tap for 2013. Perhaps they are going to integrate fingerprint sensors into all the iOS products at once? With Passbook becoming your credit card/electronic payment device repository. That reminds me of a little startup in Iowa that worked with a regional bank to bypass credit cards and merchant services. Credit card fees on that system dropped to a flat 25 cents (no percentage fees), and doesn't require the usual terminal (internet based). Payments are made using ACH, with the simplicity of a credit card transaction. Merchants and banks love it. They are looking for capital to roll it out nationwide. Hmmm an Apple acquisition in the works?
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Post by frqntflr on Oct 29, 2012 3:43:50 GMT -8
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Post by mtjs on Oct 29, 2012 3:57:26 GMT -8
It will be a boring day...
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Post by Iceage on Oct 29, 2012 4:05:01 GMT -8
Up 1% in Germany
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Post by appledoc on Oct 29, 2012 4:13:18 GMT -8
Hopefully this ends up as another weak East coast storm that everyone gets all bent out of shape for over nothing. I've been through this before multiple times.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 29, 2012 4:15:56 GMT -8
Apple? I may be looking in the wrong place, but I see it down, not up. Where are you seeing up 1%?
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Post by Big Al on Oct 29, 2012 4:25:43 GMT -8
Apple? I may be looking in the wrong place, but I see it down, not up. Where are you seeing up 1%? Yes, it is down 0.56%.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 29, 2012 5:02:27 GMT -8
Hopefully this ends up as another weak East coast storm that everyone gets all bent out of shape for over nothing. I've been through this before multiple times. I'm in the crosshair of this storm, and hopefully you are right. But this thing is going to have significant disruptions for a couple of days, and hopefully some of the strength of the storm with be taken out as it hits the colder waters off the Jersey shore (at least that's what I heard on Weather Channel last night). Wind speeds of +75 mph are unusual for this area, and we expect many trees to be coming down, as well as significant power outages. Right now we're hunkered down pretty good, hoping for the best.
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Post by nathanstevens on Oct 29, 2012 5:14:36 GMT -8
That and the Tesla Model S goes into production in a couple months. Did you preorder a Model S? The nationwide rollout of supercharging stations that Tesla has planned sounds pretty nice. Free lifetime charges for Model S owners.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 29, 2012 5:40:44 GMT -8
Still have power - I am sure you all saw that The Loop has said that all mini pre-orders were sold out. This needs to get into the press once the hurricane stuff passes.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 29, 2012 6:09:48 GMT -8
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 29, 2012 6:20:43 GMT -8
JD sez: I'm sorry, but I have never seen such a massively pussified reaction to a category 1 hurricane.
Well, you obviously were not in the Boston area for hurricane Gloria. O. M. G. What a joke that was. This one seems to be somewhat different :-(
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Post by rezonate on Oct 29, 2012 7:00:44 GMT -8
In southeastern CT. So far so good. Local airport reporting 30mph winds with 47mph gusts. No real rain, just drizzle and very overcast. Having lived and worked on the U.S. Gulf Coast for many years, the nature of hurricanes and storms are very different. But responses are (correctly) pretty much the same. I'd rather be the ant than the grasshopper. Semper Paratus, people!
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Post by mstefa on Oct 29, 2012 7:05:19 GMT -8
It's kind of bizarre that there has been ZERO coverage of the iPad 4th gen. 100% of media & consumer interest appears to be in the iPad mini. To think that just 6 months ago people were camping out in line to be the first to buy an iPad 3, yet no one gives any notice whatsoever to the iPad 4, which arrived 6 months early. It's been completely overshadowed. If apple does release first weekend sales figures for the iPad mini, I don't think we will hear anything about the iPad 4 sales. Regarding the release of the iPad 4 Technically there was no compelling reason and it would be a poor business choice to do it just because it is a faster processor. Competitively nothing comes close to the 3 and the competitors shortfalls have little or nothing to do with the processor. They must have known doing this so soon would make many of the iPad 3 owners feel like Chumps so doing this was not without risk of alienating arguably some of the most loyal, high-margin customers. One would think they would have held off till at least spring next year so trying to come up with a good reason as to why they were pushed to do it earlier leaves better margins through lower COGS of the newer processor now or very soon as the most likely reason. observations: most loyal customers are small numbers.. Apple goes after 100s of millions of users. They may have abundance of supply of CPUs or even price advantage on the new ones. largest reason: if they start updating every 4/ 8 months, nobody will be waiting in lines for new product, and there will be no 6 months of low sales when everyone is waiting for new model. See samsung with number of models of smart phones.Nobody is waiting for the new phone, they just buy what's in store and new one is always just around the corner. I wish they update their lineups 3 times a year while holding down compatibility for longer times. Minor updates will train customers to buy when they need. Diehards will always buy when they've been bored of the old model.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 29, 2012 7:07:08 GMT -8
I must say, though, that the release of all these new products at once really makes me wonder what's on tap for 2013. Perhaps they are going to integrate fingerprint sensors into all the iOS products at once? Good call! If most of the hardware and OS is set for a while maybe the software apps for OS X get a major overhaul? Maybe iLife and iWork get serious revamps. Or some completely new apps? Maybe Numbers and Pages become real industrial strength apps? Or maybe OS XI? Other obvious items on the hardware side would be TV, Mac Pro, and servers. Something has to fill the R&D void created by having almost all new hardware designs. Apple must have something planned and I think it will be big rather than small. TV would be big. MacPro and servers would be small.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 29, 2012 7:24:34 GMT -8
Well I just PR'd the 10 miler course where I live. Take that Sandy.
Anyone think we'll get iPad mini numbers today? There didn't seem to be any conclusive answer in the weekend thread.
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Post by wolverine on Oct 29, 2012 7:35:00 GMT -8
I must say, though, that the release of all these new products at once really makes me wonder what's on tap for 2013. Perhaps they are going to integrate fingerprint sensors into all the iOS products at once? Good call! If most of the hardware and OS is set for a while maybe the software apps for OS X get a major overhaul? Maybe iLife and iWork get serious revamps. Or some completely new apps? Maybe Numbers and Pages become real industrial strength apps? Or maybe OS XI? Other obvious items on the hardware side would be TV, Mac Pro, and servers. Something has to fill the R&D void created by having almost all new hardware designs. Apple must have something planned and I think it will be big rather than small. TV would be big. MacPro and servers would be small. I still don't see the Apple TV as a big physical TV screen; too many other manufacturers are doing that well, and inexpensively. For Apple to succeed in the big screen TV space, they have to do more than just create a TV with a cooler bezel. My TV habits have completely changed over the past few years, with TIVO and the possibility of renting whole seasons of a good cable series (Homeland is my latest, and it is terrific). Until Apple can get cable companies and their suppliers to agree to change the whole model of television (I don't want or need the chaos of 200 cable channels), I just don't see that Apple can be revolutionary in that space. When Apple first introduced Apple TV half a dozen years or so ago, I thought it would have the same impact as iPod and iTunes. But it hasn't. Apple, without Jobs, still needs to disrupt whole industries to outrun the jackals that are nipping at its heals. On this day of no stock market to follow, what other industries do you think it has a chance to enter and have mass success?
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Post by appledoc on Oct 29, 2012 7:57:51 GMT -8
I would like to see live TV AirPlay from an Apple TV box to my iPad, iPhone and Mac. Hopefully that's where we end up.
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Post by rickag on Oct 29, 2012 8:08:33 GMT -8
Oct 27, 2012, 7:31pm, rutgersguy92 wrote: I'm confused by Andy's tweets.
When he tweeted AAPL will visit the low $600's between January and April, are we to assume this will occur after Jan 13 expiration(Jan 18th) or earnings report(?)? I assume he means after earnings.
Similarly, he tweeted AAPL will visit "$730 to $750 level first" meaning before Jan 13 expiration and/or earnings. ??
He goes on to say that between Feb - March spreads will be cheaper but "whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either.". I guess he means Apr 13s @ > $750.
Finally he says don't buy Apr 13s and just buy Jan 13s and July 13s.
Simply put, if I understand, he believes there will be a significant run up to Jan 13s (whoohoo), a miss in WS's expectations so WS pummels AAPL and then no significant run up to Apr 13s. But, the earning report for FQ 2 2013 will again be a blowout with a subsequent run up.
I can accept this, but even after the blowout earnings in FQ2 seems AAPL could peak and go back down as the summer quarters can melt down AAPL share price.
What would make Jul 13s so valuable, wouldn't Jun 13s be just as valuable?
China Mobile announcement in the earning report after FQ 2 2013? Apple TV? Large purchase of a company coming up?
The reason I ask is I have the bulk of my account in Apr 13s and am trying to understand more completely Andy's reasoning.
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