chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Apr 23, 2016 9:10:33 GMT -8
All right, Earnings Week! Can't you just feel the excitement building? Just to change the tone a bit, here is the usual optimistic article from CML Laboratories: Apple: India is Turning into a Ridiculous Success. There is one actual fact in the article: Shortly after the meeting we got this news: India has singled out “cutting-edge technology” as a segment that can side-step the 30% local producer rule and Apple has been singled out as “cutting-edge technology.” What a coincidence.
Then, yesterday, the Times of India wrote an article: “Apple may get to open stores without 30% sourcing norm.”
“The government is set to waive the requirement of mandatory domestic sourcing for Apple, paving the way for the global technology giant to open its own retail outlets in the country.” And there does seem to be some actual sales data that is encouraging: If you recall that that 1%-2% market share we looked at in India as of mid 2015, news from Quartz broke in March that the tide is shifting, and it’s building into a tsunami:
“iPhone sales made up 4.6% of the overall smartphones sold in India’s top 30 cities between October and December 2015.”
That number has spiked to 5.8% in tier-I Indian cities. It will be interesting to see if Tim provides any iPhone SE data, as limited in scope it may be given the short time it has been available.
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Post by rickag on Apr 23, 2016 11:10:42 GMT -8
chinacat
Thank you for the positive news.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 23, 2016 23:09:37 GMT -8
Those CML articles are a joke. Just as bad as FUD on the other side. Growth in India is encouraging but it's many years out before we would see an impact. It's too poor of a country.
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Post by rickag on Apr 24, 2016 6:08:48 GMT -8
Those CML articles are a joke. Just as bad as FUD on the other side. Growth in India is encouraging but it's many years out before we would see an impact. It's too poor of a country. The CML articles do tend to use a lot of hyperbole, probably because they are trying to sell their service. But it is encouraging that the iPhone is increasing market share in India, maybe not the "tectonic" shift CML described it as. Not sure where CML came up with Apple developing a social network from? Ad blocking doesn't add to Apple's bottom line, so why include it in the article? The last part of the article jumps to the IoT which begins their more aggressive push to sell subscriptions and doesn't really mention Apple at all. But still, I like the positive slant on Apple as opposed to the vast majority of FUD about Apple on the Internet.
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Post by rickag on Apr 24, 2016 6:46:23 GMT -8
Chuck Jones @ Forbes has an article on iPhone SE lead times. His numbers are as of Saturday. Apple's iPhone SE Lead-times Are Still ElongatedApple may have grossly underestimated demand or is having issues producing the SE. The ER should shed some light. From the article: I would expect Apple would have the ability to ramp up production unless there is tight supply for one or more parts.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Apr 24, 2016 8:51:12 GMT -8
I thought that I caveated the CML article references appropriately. The 30% foreign sourcing burden was raised here as a major obstacle for an already expensive product, so the possibility of Apple avoiding that seems positive. While the "tsunami" description of the increased sales was typical of CML, the fact that sales have tripled in advance of Apple's arrival in country certainly indicates significant interest. I seem to remember stories saying that the iPhone would never make significant headway in China against lower priced brands like Xiaomi and Huawei. This article describes the beginning of the 4G uptake in India, which I take to be another positive sign. We now return you to our regular "All Sour All The Time" programming.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Apr 24, 2016 9:32:46 GMT -8
The gloom and doom we read here, along with the low participation is indicative to me of a dearth of lemmings. The players have moved on to greener pastures, the hedge funds left long ago, and all we have left are the people who believe in the long term. Many of those people have been in Apple so long that what started out as a small holding is now 50% or more of their portfolio, so adding to the position just doesn't make sense.
I continue to believe that, having cleared out most of the momentum players, Apple is poised for a long slow climb. This is a great time to slowly accumulate. Don't forget that just 3 years ago we were at a split -adjusted 60. I believe that that gives us a compounded return of around 20% per year. How many stocks with a P/E of 11 give that kind of return? How many of those pay dividends? How many of those have the financial stability of Apple?
Feel free to piss and moan as needed, that is part of why we are here, but I personally feel pretty good about the future, both long and short term.
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Post by galleybob on Apr 24, 2016 10:08:20 GMT -8
I have been long term since 2000. I will continue to be long term, happily getting dividends. If I wasn't retired I would reinvest dividends but they are my retirement fund. I am very optimistic about Apple.
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Post by hledgard on Apr 24, 2016 13:09:49 GMT -8
The gloom and doom we read here, along with the low participation is indicative to me of a dearth of lemmings. The players have moved on to greener pastures, the hedge funds left long ago, and all we have left are the people who believe in the long term. Many of those people have been in Apple so long that what started out as a small holding is now 50% or more of their portfolio, so adding to the position just doesn't make sense. I continue to believe that, having cleared out most of the momentum players, Apple is poised for a long slow climb. This is a great time to slowly accumulate. Don't forget that just 3 years ago we were at a split -adjusted 60. I believe that that gives us a compounded return of around 20% per year. How many stocks with a P/E of 11 give that kind of return? How many of those pay dividends? How many of those have the financial stability of Apple? Feel free to piss and moan as needed, that is part of why we are here, but I personally feel pretty good about the future, both long and short term. Like Bud, I bought AAPL ages ago, and have more or less held on, probably selling 25% along the way. Not sure about the long term, have some concern about the car, but like Tim Cook, and hope for the best. A tax-holiday for overseas money would be great.
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Post by incorrigible on Apr 24, 2016 13:16:58 GMT -8
My 1st shares were purchased in 2001. AAPL is still my largest position but will undoubtably be reduced soon.
Still here. Still watching. Nothing to say.
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Post by incorrigible on Apr 24, 2016 13:18:23 GMT -8
A tax-holiday for overseas money would be great. If that happens, BOOM! One can hope. Maybe if Trump gets elected.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 24, 2016 21:54:34 GMT -8
The gloom and doom we read here, along with the low participation is indicative to me of a dearth of lemmings. The players have moved on to greener pastures, the hedge funds left long ago, and all we have left are the people who believe in the long term. Many of those people have been in Apple so long that what started out as a small holding is now 50% or more of their portfolio, so adding to the position just doesn't make sense. I continue to believe that, having cleared out most of the momentum players, Apple is poised for a long slow climb. This is a great time to slowly accumulate. Don't forget that just 3 years ago we were at a split -adjusted 60. I believe that that gives us a compounded return of around 20% per year. How many stocks with a P/E of 11 give that kind of return? How many of those pay dividends? How many of those have the financial stability of Apple? Feel free to piss and moan as needed, that is part of why we are here, but I personally feel pretty good about the future, both long and short term. And 3.5 years ago we were at a split adjusted $100. What's the return on that? Most of us were also forecasting an easy march to $1T market cap. It's hard to say that AAPL has performed well over the past few years given our projections at the time. Don't you think that citing 20% growth after the stock took a 45% hit in seven months is kind of meaningless? I'm pretty sure most of us have been in AAPL for longer than 3 years.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Apr 25, 2016 8:11:02 GMT -8
The gloom and doom we read here, along with the low participation is indicative to me of a dearth of lemmings. The players have moved on to greener pastures, the hedge funds left long ago, and all we have left are the people who believe in the long term. Many of those people have been in Apple so long that what started out as a small holding is now 50% or more of their portfolio, so adding to the position just doesn't make sense. I continue to believe that, having cleared out most of the momentum players, Apple is poised for a long slow climb. This is a great time to slowly accumulate. Don't forget that just 3 years ago we were at a split -adjusted 60. I believe that that gives us a compounded return of around 20% per year. How many stocks with a P/E of 11 give that kind of return? How many of those pay dividends? How many of those have the financial stability of Apple? Feel free to piss and moan as needed, that is part of why we are here, but I personally feel pretty good about the future, both long and short term. And 3.5 years ago we were at a split adjusted $100. What's the return on that? Most of us were also forecasting an easy march to $1T market cap. It's hard to say that AAPL has performed well over the past few years given our projections at the time. Don't you think that citing 20% growth after the stock took a 45% hit in seven months is kind of meaningless? I'm pretty sure most of us have been in AAPL for longer than 3 years. I used a trough and you used a peak. Yea, I think both are pretty meaningless. Maybe that should be the point. My overall rate of return is a cumulative 207%. I have held shares of Apple since the mid nineties, but also bought in 2004, 2008 and 2013. I am to lazy to calculate the actual compound growth rate, but I don't think that I am hurting. The real point that can be made is the obvious one that Apple rewards the long term buy and hold investor. So why bother to complain when it doesn't provide daily rewards?
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