Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Apr 30, 2016 10:07:02 GMT -8
Well, disappointing earnings reports definitely stink. But without anything truly major on the horizon, I remain steadfastly invested in the fruit. We are still trying to live up to the anomaly that was last year's amazing results… Apple still sold a boatload of iPhones - totally in-line with previous Q2's when you discount last year.
Have a nice weekend!
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Post by macster on Apr 30, 2016 13:22:40 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Apr 30, 2016 16:30:01 GMT -8
Remember when the stock was overrun with get-rich-quick investors like Nate? Remember how we used to wish that all the gamblers would just leave us alone and let the investors who really watched fundamentals and technicals control the stock? Remember the wish for all the hedge funds and institutions to just leave us alone? Well.....
Feels a little lonely, but I could get used to it
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Apr 30, 2016 20:03:51 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on May 1, 2016 0:36:23 GMT -8
Remember when the stock was overrun with get-rich-quick investors like Nate? Remember how we used to wish that all the gamblers would just leave us alone and let the investors who really watched fundamentals and technicals control the stock? Remember the wish for all the hedge funds and institutions to just leave us alone? Well..... Feels a little lonely, but I could get used to it If we all really watched fundamentals that well and viewed opposing viewpoints with some seriousness instead of arrogant dismissal we might have seen this coming. I know the "tough compare" has been mentioned but I don't think any of us really expected a sales and profit drop of this magnitude. At least it was never voiced here. Management hasn't done us any favours either with how they've handled things. It's time to get rid of the arrogance. Apple bulls are no smarter or better than others. We may be more logical, but that's not necessarily a good thing on Wall Street. It's about making money, and the people who have been bearish on AAPL the last few years have been proven right, beyond a shadow of a doubt, especially when you compare against what the market and tech in particular has returned.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 1, 2016 3:28:13 GMT -8
Remember when the stock was overrun with get-rich-quick investors like Nate? Remember how we used to wish that all the gamblers would just leave us alone and let the investors who really watched fundamentals and technicals control the stock? Remember the wish for all the hedge funds and institutions to just leave us alone? Well..... Feels a little lonely, but I could get used to it If we all really watched fundamentals that well and viewed opposing viewpoints with some seriousness instead of arrogant dismissal we might have seen this coming. I know the "tough compare" has been mentioned but I don't think any of us really expected a sales and profit drop of this magnitude. At least it was never voiced here. Management hasn't done us any favours either with how they've handled things. It's time to get rid of the arrogance. Apple bulls are no smarter or better than others. We may be more logical, but that's not necessarily a good thing on Wall Street. It's about making money, and the people who have been bearish on AAPL the last few years have been proven right, beyond a shadow of a doubt, especially when you compare against what the market and tech in particular has returned. Don't agree that the Board eschew's critical analysis. Indeed, we crave it. Good critical analysis of Apple is all too sparse. How often do we see a good comparison of the fundamentals of Apple versus Amazon... or anyone else? Such analysis is out there. Unfortunately it is few and far between -- and tends to be ignored by the financial press as a whole who prefer scary sound bites or click bait headlines instead. 'Bad' news sells, even if exaggerated. Perhaps yesterday's Macalope column sums it up best: Start making sense: In your Apple criticism -- Criticism is fine, but ranting isn't helpful.That said, we are a little quick to dismiss some posters. One doesn't have to agree with Sponge's fluctuating prognostications to find value in his thought processes. Nate was green and could have benefited immensely from some tutelage. We should be more welcoming/encouraging -- and focus our commentary on the ideas not the person.
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Post by tuffett on May 1, 2016 6:00:28 GMT -8
Just as an example - and by no means am I implying that I'm always right - my warnings that the supply chain rumours should not just be dismissed as FUD were pretty much ignored and dismissed as me always being glass half-empty. There was essentially zero doubt on this board that all those rumours were complete garbage. That's what I'm talking about - the idea that there is absolutely nothing wrong with Apple's fundamentals and any negative article is just manipulation and baseless conjecture. No doubt there is plenty of that as well, but we are seeing a lot of truth behind it recently. There are many of us that welcome critical analysis but equally many that don't.
And as frustrating as it as, I don't think comparing AAPL to AMZN does us any good. Completely different business models and obviously the market likes AMZN's story so we have to accept what appears to us as a ridiculous valuation. I was bearish on AMZN in the $200s - I have to suck it up, stop complaining and admit I was wrong. If I am not thinking of AMZN as an investment I should waste my time worrying about how the stock is doing. Easier said than done.
The market likes consistency. AMZN, GOOG etc. grow revenues consistently at a good clip. Apple is all over the map, and that is scary.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 1, 2016 6:27:33 GMT -8
Just as an example - and by no means am I implying that I'm always right - my warnings that the supply chain rumours should not just be dismissed as FUD were pretty much ignored and dismissed as me always being glass half-empty. There was essentially zero doubt on this board that all those rumours were complete garbage. That's what I'm talking about - the idea that there is absolutely nothing wrong with Apple's fundamentals and any negative article is just manipulation and baseless conjecture. No doubt there is plenty of that as well, but we are seeing a lot of truth behind it recently. There are many of us that welcome critical analysis but equally many that don't. And as frustrating as it as, I don't think comparing AAPL to AMZN does us any good. Completely different business models and obviously the market likes AMZN's story so we have to accept what appears to us as a ridiculous valuation. I was bearish on AMZN in the $200s - I have to suck it up, stop complaining and admit I was wrong. If I am not thinking of AMZN as an investment I should waste my time worrying about how the stock is doing. Easier said than done. The market likes consistency. AMZN, GOOG etc. grow revenues consistently at a good clip. Apple is all over the map, and that is scary. I don't think that your views have been arrogantly dismissed, some of us just look at things from a different time frame. It is not a matter of whether we should look at the glass as half empty or half full, we need more articles that say the glass is the wrong size. I think everyone here respects your opinion as just that, your opinion. There was a time when supply chain rumors were completely misleading as an indicator of earnings. It does seem that they are becoming more accurate. I would love to see someone compute Pearson's R on the correlation. Hell, I would settle for a good scatter plot. What exactly do you see as being wrong with Apple's fundamentals?
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Post by sponge on May 1, 2016 7:28:48 GMT -8
It is easy to be bullish on the company and the stock given the history of amazing runs and products.
However in the last 5 years it is becoming more evident that predicting much beyond one quarter where we are going with sales is very challenging.
Apple is growing but one can't judge the growth by comparing YOY like in the past. The reason is that all 3 major products lines are mature enough to be impacted any number of issues.
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Post by sponge on May 1, 2016 8:11:22 GMT -8
Now I am typing on my new iPad Pro. The keyboard is cool but still too small compared to a regular size one. However it is much easer I to type then the screen so I will make a few points.
I am always learning and discipline is the hardest part to maintain. We are in a downtrend and I should have recognized that a year ago.
For myself I am angry for not sticking to my plans and jumping in when all signs pointed to headwinds ahead. I thought I could swing trade despite clear TA signs that we were due for a correction. Note to self. Sell at RSi of 60+ and buy only at 30 or under. The funny part is that almost every year for the last 10 we have seen these big RSi fluctuations. Then when we had moving averages for trends, MACD histogram, and fundamentals, we get plenty of tools to help us invest and trade.
However I will not allow myself to judge the company based on my incorrect assumptions or the amount of money I have lost.
Yes we should have believed the reports back in Nov. that sales were dropping. The stock indicated that then and now as well.
The trend is downward until proven otherwise. The iPhone 7 could do the trick but I am not convinced we will. We will know in January 2017.
The p/e has moved between 9-16. So we can make judgement calls based on those boundaries.
Carl Icahn believed that the stock would go to 200 and bought billions as result. Two years later it is clear that we would not reach 200 anytime soon. He too was caught off guard. I am only angry at him for claiming he is long term and yet he jumped out.
I recall in 2012 many were angry that TC and company did not for tell the significant drop in margins and sales going in 2013. We should have seen for ourselves that margins were going to drop from 47 to historical average of 37. But we got sucked into thinking we were going only up.
Now we must be patient just like 2001, 2006, 2008, 2013.
I don't think Apple knows how much they will grow in 1 or 2 years. They see trends and invest accordinatly. The iPad was a perfect example. TC was bragging about how much room for growth there was, and yet 5 years later we are now dropping for 2 years instead of growing. Even in the short term they can't predict demand. Look at the iPhone SE.
They do believe in the long term growth of the company and are buying stock. Had they known that the stock would drop, they would have bought less, but even management I think is caught off guard in the quick change in growth trends.
So we toil on. I am still bullish about Apple more then ever. When my daughter tells me that 80% of the kids at school have iPhones and she sees more and more Apple Watches, I know that we will be fine. History repeats itself when one looks at how many teenagers had iPods in 2005.
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Post by artman1033 on May 1, 2016 8:12:42 GMT -8
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Post by macster on May 1, 2016 8:37:05 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on May 1, 2016 9:23:52 GMT -8
"Donald Trump says he will get Apple to 'start building their damn computers and things' in the US " LOL Donald Trump says a lot of things to get votes .... Kind of like all politicians.
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Post by longsince98 on May 1, 2016 10:41:07 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 1, 2016 11:52:53 GMT -8
The floor has been around a 10 PE.
With EPS now at 8.99 and declining -- the company's guidance puts annual EPS after July earnings report at around 8.60 -- why wouldn't we go down into at least the mid-80s? Depressing, yes, but there's no reason why sentiment would suddenly give us a greater than 10 PE, is there?
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Post by rickag on May 1, 2016 12:06:24 GMT -8
Chuck Jones is one of the few writers that seems straightforward and refrains from sensationalistic tactics.
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Post by rickag on May 1, 2016 12:23:59 GMT -8
The floor has been around a 10 PE. With EPS now at 8.99 and declining -- the company's guidance puts annual EPS after July earnings report at around 8.60 -- why wouldn't we go down into at least the mid-80s? Depressing, yes, but there's no reason why sentiment would suddenly give us a greater than 10 PE, is there? I would say that now is not the time to be buying OTM calls. If Apple is smart they will not be buying back stock right now, maybe they should be selling a ton of puts below a strike price of $90. July 15s @ $85 strikes are @ $1.41 and as AAPL drops the premium should go up.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on May 1, 2016 13:36:29 GMT -8
Just as an example - and by no means am I implying that I'm always right - my warnings that the supply chain rumours should not just be dismissed as FUD were pretty much ignored and dismissed as me always being glass half-empty. There was essentially zero doubt on this board that all those rumours were complete garbage. That's what I'm talking about - the idea that there is absolutely nothing wrong with Apple's fundamentals and any negative article is just manipulation and baseless conjecture. No doubt there is plenty of that as well, but we are seeing a lot of truth behind it recently. There are many of us that welcome critical analysis but equally many that don't. Sorry, but this is just nonsense. Supply chain analyst charlatans are right once, so that defines accuracy and veracity? By that inductive reasoning, Sponge is the Oracle of Cupertino because he was the most accurate blind dart thrower a few quarters back. How was Sponge's most recent numbers? I'm assuming they were bad because I stopped following that silly guessing game long ago. Supply chain analysis has been wrong more than it's been right, so let's see them consistently produce accurate estimates more often than a broken clock, and then we can give them some credence. I'd also ask you to tell us of a company with better fundamentals than Apple has right now. Obviously, a decline in sales is not good, but Jesus Christ, the world economy sucks. In the US, 0.3% GDP last quarter after 7+ years of Obamanomics. Unless you define good fundamentals as a huge beat of WS guesstimates every 90 days (I don't), then Apple and its PE look pretty damn good on a fundamental basis right now. $10.5B in profit in 90 days, disaster! Amazon made $500M after decades of being a nonprofit, epic! LOL. I have my criticisms of Apple management ATM, but Apple has bad fundamentals? Who has better in any industry? Please say Google so I can really go into what a real existential threat to a business model is.
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Post by tuffett on May 1, 2016 14:04:37 GMT -8
Just as an example - and by no means am I implying that I'm always right - my warnings that the supply chain rumours should not just be dismissed as FUD were pretty much ignored and dismissed as me always being glass half-empty. There was essentially zero doubt on this board that all those rumours were complete garbage. That's what I'm talking about - the idea that there is absolutely nothing wrong with Apple's fundamentals and any negative article is just manipulation and baseless conjecture. No doubt there is plenty of that as well, but we are seeing a lot of truth behind it recently. There are many of us that welcome critical analysis but equally many that don't. And as frustrating as it as, I don't think comparing AAPL to AMZN does us any good. Completely different business models and obviously the market likes AMZN's story so we have to accept what appears to us as a ridiculous valuation. I was bearish on AMZN in the $200s - I have to suck it up, stop complaining and admit I was wrong. If I am not thinking of AMZN as an investment I should waste my time worrying about how the stock is doing. Easier said than done. The market likes consistency. AMZN, GOOG etc. grow revenues consistently at a good clip. Apple is all over the map, and that is scary. I don't think that your views have been arrogantly dismissed, some of us just look at things from a different time frame. It is not a matter of whether we should look at the glass as half empty or half full, we need more articles that say the glass is the wrong size. I think everyone here respects your opinion as just that, your opinion. There was a time when supply chain rumors were completely misleading as an indicator of earnings. It does seem that they are becoming more accurate. I would love to see someone compute Pearson's R on the correlation. Hell, I would settle for a good scatter plot. What exactly do you see as being wrong with Apple's fundamentals? I see several potential roadblocks. China & government, lengthening of upgrade cycles, ASP/margin pressures, tax issues. And for the things Apple can control, apart from iOS I don't think their software and services are up to snuff.
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Post by tuffett on May 1, 2016 15:01:10 GMT -8
Sorry, but this is just nonsense. Supply chain analyst charlatans are right once, so that defines accuracy and veracity? No, but the point is they should not be outright dismissed, especially when there are hordes of reports pointing to the same outcome. And they've been right more than once, on both sides of the coin. Supply chain analysis has been wrong more than it's been right, so let's see them consistently produce accurate estimates more often than a broken clock, and then we can give them some credence. You'd be a fool not to give them a little credence at this point. Not outright, but definitely to be considered. I'd also ask you to tell us of a company with better fundamentals than Apple has right now. Obviously, a decline in sales is not good, but Jesus Christ, the world economy sucks. In the US, 0.3% GDP last quarter after 7+ years of Obamanomics. Unless you define good fundamentals as a huge beat of WS guesstimates every 90 days (I don't), then Apple and its PE look pretty damn good on a fundamental basis right now. $10.5B in profit in 90 days, disaster! Amazon made $500M after decades of being a nonprofit, epic! LOL. I have my criticisms of Apple management ATM, but Apple has bad fundamentals? Who has better in any industry? Please say Google so I can really go into what a real existential threat to a business model is. If you're talking about just the company and not the stock, there are tons of stocks with stronger fundamentals. Google and Facebook to name a couple. Say what you will about CPCs going down, Google continues to more consistently grow earnings and revenues. Part of Apple's growth story is the fact that the smartphone market will still grow over the long term and internet usage will continue to climb. Well, if that turns out to be true Google is going to reap the rewards as well, except from every single device and not just iPhones. Facebook is an absolute monster. If you offered me GOOG, FB, and AAPL at the same P/E, I take AAPL last. Now, if you throw valuation into the mix I agree that few can compare to AAPL right now. But the question remains will AAPL ever get a P/E that even comes close to its competitors? Doesn't look like it because of its inconsistency. If you look into other sectors, there are plenty of strong commodity companies out there that are grossly undervalued, although less so now with the recent run. You'd have to know an awful lot about many hundreds of companies to make the bold claim that AAPL has the best fundamentals out of any company in the market.
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Post by macster on May 1, 2016 15:53:47 GMT -8
The floor has been around a 10 PE. With EPS now at 8.99 and declining -- the company's guidance puts annual EPS after July earnings report at around 8.60 -- why wouldn't we go down into at least the mid-80s? Depressing, yes, but there's no reason why sentiment would suddenly give us a greater than 10 PE, is there? If Apple is smart they will not be buying back stock right now, maybe they should be selling a ton of puts below a strike price of $90. I'm not familiar with this.... But Buybacks should be done before the ex-div date which is May 9 don't you think. Not after.
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Post by nagrani on May 1, 2016 16:29:06 GMT -8
They can sell debt at 2% and buy stock to avoid paying 2.4% - regardless of how complicated you want to make things seem - Apple is likely buying stock b/w now and then. Why wouldn't they?!?
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Post by sponge on May 1, 2016 21:17:55 GMT -8
Not that I care about JD since he is blocked and don't see his comments most of the time, but his angry and snarky rebuttals always need further education. He is the last rude member here. Guessing EPS and all the other numbers for me is not about being right or wrong. What it does do is force me to look carefully at the fundamentals. I also do it for fun and a hobby. By studying every part of the business and then Comparing to actual results beyond the headlines, it allows me to understand trends and the strength or weakness of the company. I respect valuation much more and simply join the evil overlords who manipulate the stock. The stock is developing a pattern I understand and appreciate much more. It serves no purpose to get upset at WS or anyone else who has an opinion or provide some data point in the press. I don't berate those who try to focus on the details but admire their commitment to keep up with the pros. We only invest our own money. After losing a few hundreds of thousands of dollars in the last 4 years I only see those loses as simple numbers on a screen. They don't affect my quality of life or enjoyment of it. It is like a game I guess. ? When I lose I quickly go thru the 5 stages of grief and move on in a matter of a few days. I reasses and change the plan. Glad I got that off my chest. ?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on May 1, 2016 23:47:19 GMT -8
If you're talking about just the company and not the stock, there are tons of stocks with stronger fundamentals. Google and Facebook to name a couple. Say what you will about CPCs going down, Google continues to more consistently grow earnings and revenues. Part of Apple's growth story is the fact that the smartphone market will still grow over the long term and internet usage will continue to climb. Well, if that turns out to be true Google is going to reap the rewards as well, except from every single device and not just iPhones. Facebook is an absolute monster. If you offered me GOOG, FB, and AAPL at the same P/E, I take AAPL last. Now, if you throw valuation into the mix I agree that few can compare to AAPL right now. But the question remains will AAPL ever get a P/E that even comes close to its competitors? Doesn't look like it because of its inconsistency. If you look into other sectors, there are plenty of strong commodity companies out there that are grossly undervalued, although less so now with the recent run. You'd have to know an awful lot about many hundreds of companies to make the bold claim that AAPL has the best fundamentals out of any company in the market. Google has better fundamentals? Google has ZERO presence in China, and Apple is doomed because iTunes shut down there for a couple of days? The bulk of Google's mobile ad revenue (soon to be all their ad revenue will be mobile since PCs are dying) is on iPhone. That right there is an existential threat to Google, which Apple controls (not to mention, Apple is doomed relying on the iPhone but Google ads relying on iPhone aren't?). Apple can bleed Google dry on search and maps in iOS if it wants to. And don't even get me started on Android, basically a non-profit that is a huge target for EU antitrust regulators. That's a huge existential threat to Google's European search revenues. So in the US and Europe, Google could serious jeopardy in its main business model. Google doesn't even exist in China, the world's biggest market. As for Facebook, go ask MySpace how fickle social media users are. Where's the profit in Facebook? Annoying people with ads? Selling their info? We'll see how that works out. I don't know anyone under 40 who likes Facebook anymore. My 18-year-old niece takes like a week to answer her FB messages because none of her friends use it. They use SnapChat or Instagram. With $10.5 billion in profit, Apple earned more in the quarter than Alphabet ($4.2B), Facebook ($1.5B), and Microsoft ($3.8B) combined. Doomed!
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Post by tuffett on May 2, 2016 0:05:46 GMT -8
Take the blinders off. If it was so easy to kill off search and maps, then Apple would have done it by now. Google makes more money off iPhones not because they are iPhones, but because iPhone users are generally more affluent and spend more. If these same users switched to another device it wouldn't affect Google in any way in terms of their take-home. YouTube is a revenue machine that nobody is going to move away from. Yes, Google has potential headwinds as well but they are consistently growing and are exploring new ideas.
Comparing Facebook to MySpace is as ridiculous as comparing Apple to Nokia or Blackberry. Shame on you for even attempting that. Shows that you have no idea what Facebook is doing. I know hundreds of people under 40 who use Facebook all the time. By the way, they own Instagram. Bought it for a pittance too. Whatsapp is the defacto messaging service for the entire world - huge monetization potential there off billions of people. If you aren't impressed by what Facebook is doing then I don't know what to say.
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