chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on May 14, 2016 8:34:28 GMT -8
The dip below $92 has thus far been less calamitous than feared, and perhaps the Didi bombshell will prevent any follow-on collapse.
What I find most interesting about that announcement is that not a single one of the many, many professional and amateur "experts" ever suggested that such a move was even something to speculate about. And yet, there appears to be almost unanimous agreement that it makes complete sense given the enormous cache of cash that is sitting overseas, Apple's very important interest in the Chinese market and relations with the Chinese government, and project Titan.
But despite this, we now we begin the WWDC speculation and dismissal as "disappointing" before the first word is spoken. Buckle up, I am certain that the road will be bumpy.
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Post by rickag on May 14, 2016 9:44:25 GMT -8
It won't be long before FUD concerning Apple's investment i.e. Apple's lack of innovation forcing them to questionable investments.
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Post by aaplcrazie on May 14, 2016 10:16:46 GMT -8
Concur with Chincat! Nice to know our favourite Company can still pull a Wabbit out of a Hat that no one saw coming!!
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Post by tuffett on May 14, 2016 17:47:25 GMT -8
What are people's thoughts on what iPhone 7 sales are going to be? The more I think about it, the more I feel like there will be another decline next year before resuming growth in 2018. Based on the rumours, the iPhone "7s" seems to be a major overhaul that should get people excited again, but that's 16 months away so I'm preparing for some gloomy times ahead.
Just anecdotally, there seems to be a lot less "buzz" about the next iPhone, both in the media and among the general public. Also, we are at the time of year where leaks are generally quite accurate, and if they are to be believed there is going to be very little change in design which could spark another negative backlash. This along with the consumer fatigue about technology and the global economic situation makes me very anxious about the success of the next iPhone. I fear the lack of headphone jack (if true) will actually be a negative on sales. The only positive I see is that it's another year and a larger user base that will have potential to upgrade.
There is also the storage space to consider. Are they going to risk keeping 16GB as entry level or bump it up to 32GB? If the former they risk some serious backlash and if the latter they will take a hit on ASPs as fewer people will spend the extra $100 to go to the next tier.
Take a read through this thread...pretty much nobody is interested in the iPhone 7. And this is from an Apple-centric forum.
https://www.reddit.com/r/apple/comments/4j5svg/with_the_rumored_iphone_7_retaining_the_same/
Thoughts? Lots to be concerned about in my opinion, although with the stock already so beaten down this could all be close to being factored in already. I think sales will be flat or slightly negative and profits more so.
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Post by macster on May 14, 2016 19:28:08 GMT -8
I'm on a grandfathered family plan. At&t has told us we can save $'s by moving off of it because none in the family have used max data anyway. Plus the fact that our two year iPhone 6 subsidized phone plans are ending this fall. Who wants to pay subsidies for a phone thats been payed off if i understand it correctly. Anyway there are a lot in this boat and will be upgrading to iPhone 7 either on a yearly plan or else, wether super packed with new features or has new looks.
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Post by tuffett on May 14, 2016 19:34:09 GMT -8
Not many people are paying subsidies anymore. Would be interesting to get some numbers for all the yearly upgrade plans. Regardless, I think it's fairly obvious that upgrade cycle on a net basis is lengthening significantly.
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Post by rickag on May 15, 2016 6:50:07 GMT -8
What are people's thoughts on what iPhone 7 sales are going to be? The more I think about it, the more I feel like there will be another decline next year before resuming growth in 2018. Based on the rumours, the iPhone "7s" seems to be a major overhaul that should get people excited again, but that's 16 months away so I'm preparing for some gloomy times ahead. Just anecdotally, there seems to be a lot less "buzz" about the next iPhone, both in the media and among the general public. Also, we are at the time of year where leaks are generally quite accurate, and if they are to be believed there is going to be very little change in design which could spark another negative backlash. This along with the consumer fatigue about technology and the global economic situation makes me very anxious about the success of the next iPhone. I fear the lack of headphone jack (if true) will actually be a negative on sales. The only positive I see is that it's another year and a larger user base that will have potential to upgrade. There is also the storage space to consider. Are they going to risk keeping 16GB as entry level or bump it up to 32GB? If the former they risk some serious backlash and if the latter they will take a hit on ASPs as fewer people will spend the extra $100 to go to the next tier. Take a read through this thread...pretty much nobody is interested in the iPhone 7. And this is from an Apple-centric forum. https://www.reddit.com/r/apple/comments/4j5svg/with_the_rumored_iphone_7_retaining_the_same/ Thoughts? Lots to be concerned about in my opinion, although with the stock already so beaten down this could all be close to being factored in already. I think sales will be flat or slightly negative and profits more so. I can't predict iPhone sales. Yes the media and bloggers are generally negative but base the negativity on other bloggers and analysts that have supposedly inside information on Apple's supply chain. These analysts got it right once, not a good track record. Not much help from me.
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Post by nagrani on May 15, 2016 7:43:12 GMT -8
I see it as a positive for Apple. If people don't think the next iPhone is going to be much of an upgrade - people who were waiting may just jump in the game and buy a phone now which will help numbers for this quarter and most of next quarter
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Post by tuffett on May 15, 2016 7:53:26 GMT -8
I see it as a positive for Apple. If people don't think the next iPhone is going to be much of an upgrade - people who were waiting may just jump in the game and buy a phone now which will help numbers for this quarter and most of next quarter More likely in my opinion they will wait an extra year. Nobody I know really feels the need to upgrade, and these include iPhone 5/5s owners. I believe with increasing certainty that next year's cycle will be massive, but this year is going to be a tough slog. The more I think about it the more I feel that there is a rapid lengthening of upgrade cycle going on right now. Because of the strong USD, the iPhone is a LOT more expensive today in most of the rest of the world. Paying more than you're used to for fewer compelling reasons to upgrade results in a lot of people saying "why do I need this?". I think Apple's iPhone Upgrade Program has promise but they ideally should have unveiled it a couple of years earlier, both to get ahead of the carriers and to provide a better value proposition to consumers at a time when a yearly upgrade made a lot more sense. They also need to be rolling this out a lot faster - I believe it's still US only which will have a negligible impact overall.
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Post by sponge on May 15, 2016 9:10:49 GMT -8
I think the 55% or so who have not upgraded in the last 2 years, are ripe for an upgrade. If Apple can lower the price like they did for the 5SE we could see some strong numbers. Not sure they will be enough to see YOY gains, but if it shows that the bleeding has stopped, then we could see a nice move in January for the stock.
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Post by tuffett on May 15, 2016 11:32:26 GMT -8
If lower prices are only going to result in stopping the bleeding, then we are going to see a very nice move...downwards. I think Apple will keep their pricing, stumble through a tough year and have a massive 2018. Seems like there is some pretty cool stuff coming in the "7s".
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Post by rezonate on May 15, 2016 13:36:55 GMT -8
I had a 4S, skipped all flavors of 5 and went with the 6. The 6s was a massive feature update and I really wanted it, but was paying my dues for the 6 at the time. So Mrs. Rez and I will both be looking at the 7. If it is basically a "6S-S" (same form factor, processor/memory bump, v2 3D Touch, v3 TouchID, same camera) then we will both be happy. I like the 6/6S design. Only gripe is it doesn't stand up by itself on the edge. What compelling features can the 7 really have over the 6S? Stronger screen glass, longer battery life, "fully waterproof" (all the rage lately), Apple Pencil compatible, maybe a 3D camera?. I agree that lightning-only audio jack is a negative feature. When the 7 drops, we will both be getting on the yearly plan.
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