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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 2, 2012 6:46:18 GMT -8
Max Pain notwithstanding...does the 200 day average hold? My vote unfortunately is no based solely on hunch.
There is the last bull standing buy signal you've all been looking for?
Your welcome.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2012 6:49:03 GMT -8
The max pain logic isn't always right, especially when the open interest is relatively low. There's a big difference between a low volume weekly and a large volume quarterly or leap. It might be helping, but the 200 DMA down at 588.70 (from stockcharts, so using dividend adjusted figures) is likely helping just as much if not more. Ugh. Headache with the dividend adjusted moving averages. Looks like I've been using non-adjusted moving averages, which was around 590.40. So yes, you are absolutely correct. My mistake.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2012 6:50:13 GMT -8
Not that part, the capitulating 10-15 points lower. If we are already down, why would going 15 points lower be capitulating? Where do people put their stop losses? Where do people give up hope? And given how beat down some here have been in the past few weeks, how worse would it be with a further dip. Would a lot more people be doubtful? AAPL has dipped further than I thought possible, just like in 2008 when it blew past $120-$140 which I thought were the lowest possible, and I had to sell off things I didn't want to sell off. The big difference here is that it doesn't look like we're going into a big recession (those green shoots are maturing), including increased consumer optimism and spending, which is a good thing for a company selling to those people. In the long run, Apple and AAPL will do fine. But in the short run with options, the biggie is how and when we will get there. If I put an extra 3-6 months of safety onto my purchases, along with dropping the spread down a little further, all is more likely to be good by then. Triple digit returns are awesome, though even high double digits add up very fast. But push too high, and you're bound to be swatted down once in a while. ...but maybe that's too much optimism, something that might get squished with a push down 10-15 points past the 200 DMA.
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 2, 2012 6:50:29 GMT -8
Wish I weren't only 18 back then I'm getting ready to reposition my Jan 13 spreads. Some profit is better than all loss. I wish I hadn't been so negligent a few weeks ago. I started investing in AAPL in early 2007. I now have stomach issues. I started in AAPL a few months before the dot com crash and lost half in one day. I have more than stomach issues - it's full body and psyche Some of these dips have been murder. Luckily the stock is helping pay the rent, but it isn''t easy.
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Post by lance on Nov 2, 2012 6:51:28 GMT -8
Remember the days when two or three straight up days could actually occur haha.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 6:52:41 GMT -8
I want to see that little black line cross the red line on the MACD (daily). One day it will happen. Not sure when, but one day it will happen. I never thought AAPL would get below 600 a share again. The market has a habit of punishing AAPL shareholders/option holders.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 6:56:08 GMT -8
Remember the days when two or three straight up days could actually occur haha. no
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Post by wheeles on Nov 2, 2012 6:56:17 GMT -8
While we may not have the bottom, we might have put in a bottom. I'm often guilty of looking for the former and forgetting about there being several of the latter on the way.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 6:57:52 GMT -8
While we may not have the bottom, we might have put in a bottom. I'm often guilty of looking for the former and forgetting about there being several of the latter on the way. BB, huh
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2012 7:00:05 GMT -8
Ugh. Headache with the dividend adjusted moving averages. Looks like I've been using non-adjusted moving averages, which was around 590.40. So yes, you are absolutely correct. My mistake. Who's to say which is the one to use. The difference is a fraction of a percentage, and should really only matter to those who have hard coded in something to do at those levels, whether in their mind or in a program. Personally, while some of this stuff is automated, I see most of TA as trying to explain the psychology behind it. It's the whole "frog in hot water" bit, that if the water is too hot to begin with it jumps out, vs he slowly cooks if it increases bit by bit. Stock movement is the same way, that a big change makes some subset of the investors do something. A larger, quicker change makes even more react. And a push down below some level, whether it's an arbitrary 600 level, or a level set by the values of around the last year of trading, it gets thing happening. And if churn or availability of the underlying is what you are after, then you can figure out ways to make that happen. It doesn't make it much better, but it's like rationalizing a scary roller coaster because if it was likely to actually kill you, and hence had already taken many lives, the park would be shut down. Doesn't everyone think that way
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Post by wheeles on Nov 2, 2012 7:03:43 GMT -8
While we may not have the bottom, we might have put in a bottom. I'm often guilty of looking for the former and forgetting about there being several of the latter on the way. BB, huh Relief rally, my friend. Before a possible leg down. BTW on the subject of Camarilla and me talking about longer term trends, I think this could be a day where the longer term trend (of a few days or so) changes and the breakout short sell signal fails, leading to a potential whipsaw short squeeze. It's still early in the day, but that's what I am suspecting could be on the cards for later on.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 7:04:49 GMT -8
All WAGs:AAPL bears are getting fat, dumb, and happy; consequently, as happens to AAPL bulls at tops, we're gearing up for a rip-your-face-off reversal. The headlines to explain the price action are getting ridiculous. The WTF Sale has reached the GOOB Sale stage (*as if* we're Going Out of Business). So, let the GOOBers position. The EOs return from vacation next week. Whatever price reaction people "expect" from the US Prez election results, the opposite will happen. IMHO, bear-hunting season re-commences in November.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 7:08:44 GMT -8
The technical points are there for a reason. Billions have been spent to maximize the data. Discarding the technicals is someones own choice, but history has shown them to be useful. I buy a company based on fundamentals, I buy or sell based on technicals. (most of the time anyway, Lovey, you don't have to slap my hand again for last Thursday )
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Post by wheeles on Nov 2, 2012 7:17:14 GMT -8
Ugh. Headache with the dividend adjusted moving averages. Looks like I've been using non-adjusted moving averages, which was around 590.40. So yes, you are absolutely correct. My mistake. You want my take on dividend-adjusted moving averages? Complete and utter hogwash. It's people trying to over-complicate something that does not need adjusting. The price adjusts to the new reality and the moving averages follow. The MAs do not need to be tweaked. That is why I was completely disgusted the other day when I found that Prophet charts had adjusted things to account for a dividend. (Prophet also left a two day hole in my charts to account for the two closed days. How very stupid.) If ALL charting packages adjusted for things like this and it was the accepted way of doing things, then fair enough, but when only a few do it, then it's the minority that have it wrong. Trading is all about the herd mentality, not about being the "smart" individual going against the herd as they have a tendency to get trampled.
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Post by elmar on Nov 2, 2012 7:18:12 GMT -8
The image of fat, dump and happy AAPL bears put a smile on my face!
I have been scaling in by swapping shares into options, I can still wait a little more but sometimes I do need the rally to turn them green!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 7:26:06 GMT -8
You want my take on dividend-adjusted moving averages? Complete and utter hogwash. It's people trying to over-complicate something that does not need adjusting. The price adjusts to the new reality and the moving averages follow. The MAs do not need to be tweaked. (...) I'm with you, Birdie!!!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2012 7:43:01 GMT -8
The technical points are there for a reason. Billions have been spent to maximize the data. Discarding the technicals is someones own choice, but history has shown them to be useful. And what do those technicals measure? How and why were they formed in the first place, when someone was first creating the measurement tool and so former price action was not affected by it. I'm not saying TA is wrong, but rather that it's really just a means for representing or calculating how the market is likely to react....which is what crowd psychology is. Switch over to a different market, like the housing market. There are levels that freak people out, just as there were levels that make people euphoric, borrowing more than they really should have to buy a house that was priced higher than it would be in a rational market. But that's how things work, competition and capitalism and all. What can very is how much those technicals are worth. If more and more computers or traders use those levels, they become more important, and then eventually less important. Just like the bump before a product announcement, when everyone tries to beat everyone else in the market, things start to drift. It's fine to just follow the TA as long as it's working for you. But it's also wise to keep in mind why it works and what it's based on.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 7:45:43 GMT -8
Complete and utter hogwash. Don't hold back BB, tell us how you really feel. ;D I agree with you 100% BTW. I noticed it quite a while back when I was plugging in fib numbers using stockcharts. I knew 570 had been the low after July earnings, yet 567 kept showing up. I have not looked at other companies, but the day after the dividend is paid it usually shows up in the stock price for that day. Arbitrarily subtracting it from previous values seems unethical. Rewriting history so to speak. I assume in November our high will not be 705 anymore, it will be 702, and our low will be lower also, whatever that is.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 7:48:32 GMT -8
My take on TA: it's indicative, not predictive.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Nov 2, 2012 7:54:39 GMT -8
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Post by shoc13 on Nov 2, 2012 7:59:11 GMT -8
Damn, it took forever to find you guys.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 8:03:26 GMT -8
Okay, just a little bottoming humor, because HONESTLY, I think we rally next week... Snippet of conversation from Avi's trading group (where we do NOT talk news or fundamentals): Me: The WTF Sale has transitioned to the GOOB Sale (Going Out of Business)! Have you bought at AAPL's GOOBer sale? I have!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Friend1: LOL i love sales..im getting me some
Friend2: BTW, what are they saying about AAPL in the news? I have no idea since I don't pay attention lol.
Me: some variation of "AAPL's going bankrupt tomorrow."
Friend1: cook sucks apple sucks go droid..yay samsung..you know IOW: buy, buy, buy!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 8:04:17 GMT -8
Damn, it took forever to find you guys. I was wondering where the heck you were!!!!!!!!! WELCOME!!!!
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Post by terps530 on Nov 2, 2012 8:06:23 GMT -8
continuous test of that sma200 level... the more times it tests, the more i think it will break grrrr!
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 2, 2012 8:07:26 GMT -8
continuous test of that sma200 level... the more times it tests, the more i think it will break grrrr! Honestly, I'm thinking 11/7 ;-)
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2012 8:08:00 GMT -8
The GOOBer sale. I like that iPad.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 8:10:00 GMT -8
Here's our retest on positive (bullish) divergence...read: waning momentum, sellers' exhaustion.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Nov 2, 2012 8:12:07 GMT -8
I spent all my money in the WTF sale.. I never saw the ads for the GOOB sale...
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 8:14:39 GMT -8
benoir, I know! The EOs like to keep the GOOBer Sale hush-hush... Annual event...
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Post by rickag on Nov 2, 2012 8:19:37 GMT -8
Well I don't know if I'm crazy or what, but I just bought back one of the short legs of my 5 Jan 655/660 BCSs for 8.9753(with fees) as AAPL hovered around $591.
I paid $1.5312 for the spread, so I guess the lone $655 call ended up costing me $8.9753 + $1.5312 = $10.5065. When AAPL reaches around $620 I can sell, get back my original $765 investment for the original 5 BCSs and leave me with 4 Jan 655/660 BCSs at no cost.
Hope like heck my math is correct.
Or if I get greedy, wait for AAPL to get to about $680 and make $3750. I must MUST remember greed is an awful thing.
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