chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jun 17, 2016 18:35:53 GMT -8
For comparison, last year the AAPL closed on the Friday following WWDC at $127.17, -$1.51.
I think that the WATCH was the most encouraging part of the presentation. Again, I question my ability to judge because I am an unlikely buyer due to my lack of participation in social media and a squash regimen that keeps my doctor pleased with my physical condition. But it seems clear that Apple took the usage data from early adopters very seriously and made a number of dramatic and positive UI changes.
The Continuity additions also looked quite useful, but obviously they are targeted at further locking in current users to the overall multiple-device Apple ecosystem that many of us live in.
What with the iPhone 7 already dismissed as unexciting by the leakers and pundits...
...well, step up to the bar and drown your sorrows. I propose a toast to Since84, whose presence I know that we all miss.
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Post by sponge on Jun 17, 2016 21:39:00 GMT -8
Last year a week later was the first real clue we were in trouble. The 20 dropped below the 50 and we never recovered until March of this year. Then there were early signs that the 6S would suffer, but only smart money saw that trend. Institutional ownership dropped from 62 down to 58 today.
I agree regarding Apple Watch new OS. With new hardware in the fall and maybe a further drop in prices, we could see real momentum in sales. Regardless of what JP Morgan says.
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Post by rezonate on Jun 18, 2016 6:29:10 GMT -8
Blended the dregs from several bottles of scotch last night for a fine nip. Off to the town farmer's market and local curio shop to sell some books. "Meet the local author" is always fun. Will be on the lookout for Apple fanatics. A new iPad Pro 9.7" is in my future, probably early July. Interested in reactions from any iPad upgraders on the board. Thanks!
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Post by hledgard on Jun 18, 2016 10:44:38 GMT -8
Any one know how Bud is doing?
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Post by davidstevenson on Jun 18, 2016 10:51:18 GMT -8
Greetings. My name is David Stevenson and I worked at Apple Computer for five years back in the 90s where I bought as much AAPL as I could in the employee stock purchase plan, so I accumulated quite a bit. I've sold about half since I retired (at age 49) to fund my retirement, and at my current rate, I'll be out of AAPL in about 30-60 years (barring a medical emergency). So now my investment decision each year is: do I sell at the low end of my liquidation range (i.e. if I feel the stock is undervalued and/or I am hopeful about future prospects) or the high end (I am cautious about the company's future). Right now I am at the high end (I'll be selling in November-ish, as I do every year), primarily because of two trends: The first is the decline of iPhone sales growth (and management's handling of it) as summed up in www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/5/2/iphone-warning-signs. The second is the uncertainty about what's next (and I don't mean car/transportation): AI, AR, VR, or whatever, and whether Apple will successfully pivot as summed up near the end of episode 81 at exponent.fm (sorry to have you listen through a lot of Amazon analysis and AI before they get around to Apple, but it's worth it, in my opinion). Note: none of these people are Apple-is-doomed pundits, they think Apple will be fine in the near term (five years?), it just that beyond that horizon, there are what could be warning signs. Any thoughts?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jun 18, 2016 13:23:32 GMT -8
Greetings. My name is David Stevenson and I worked at Apple Computer for five years back in the 90s ... Any thoughts? Welcome, David! Am I correct in assuming that you are new to these parts? Because your post concisely and intelligently summed up the gist of conversation here at AFB over the past year or so: those who think that the iPod and iPhone were unicorns and those who think that inspiration does not run on a schedule; both camps have complaints about execution. As you note, how that affects one's AAPL strategy is a completely separate issue, though, with that usually being more dependent on things like cost basis and stage of life. For myself, what I see as the transition of AAPL into more of value stock is a good match for where we feel our investments need to be. Selling would incur substantial taxes and the dividend provides nice recurring income in retirement. So count me in the inspiration/investor camp, as opposed to the unicorn/trader camp (or the other obvious combos). I am sure that we all look forward to any Apple insights you can provide, assuming the statute of limitations has run out on the information.
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Post by rickag on Jun 18, 2016 13:57:59 GMT -8
Greetings. My name is David Stevenson and I worked at Apple Computer for five years back in the 90s where I bought as much AAPL as I could in the employee stock purchase plan, so I accumulated quite a bit. I've sold about half since I retired (at age 49) to fund my retirement, and at my current rate, I'll be out of AAPL in about 30-60 years (barring a medical emergency). So now my investment decision each year is: do I sell at the low end of my liquidation range (i.e. if I feel the stock is undervalued and/or I am hopeful about future prospects) or the high end (I am cautious about the company's future). Right now I am at the high end (I'll be selling in November-ish, as I do every year), primarily because of two trends: The first is the decline of iPhone sales growth (and management's handling of it) as summed up in www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/5/2/iphone-warning-signs. The second is the uncertainty about what's next (and I don't mean car/transportation): AI, AR, VR, or whatever, and whether Apple will successfully pivot as summed up near the end of episode 81 at exponent.fm (sorry to have you listen through a lot of Amazon analysis and AI before they get around to Apple, but it's worth it, in my opinion). Note: none of these people are Apple-is-doomed pundits, they think Apple will be fine in the near term (five years?), it just that beyond that horizon, there are what could be warning signs. Any thoughts? I don't think anyone here can answer your questions, as we are all grasping to make our own decisions. Answers would need to know your age, % AAPL is of your portfolio, is it in a taxable account, tax deferred or tax free account(Roth IRA), how large your portfolio is etc. Even then any advice would be off an Internet board and very suspect. As to the future of Apple you must really examine if you trust senior management to grow revenue, maintain and grow dividends. As far as AI, AR & VR, Apple has purchased several companies in these fields. It appears Apple is behind, but there is some thought that Apple isn't behind but is developing these technologies with privacy underpinnings (Distributed Privacy). If they pull this off they may catch up seemingly instantaneously and protect privacy which I believe more and more people are becoming concerned with. Wish I had worked for Apple just for the experience color me envious. Did you ever meet Steve Jobs?
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Post by davidstevenson on Jun 18, 2016 15:04:41 GMT -8
rickag: "Wish I had worked for Apple just for the experience color me envious. Did you ever meet Steve Jobs?"
There were three places that I wanted to work when I moved to Silicon Valley in 1975: Xerox PARC, HP Labs, and Apple. I made it to the last two. I too would be envious except for the experience I had. As to meeting Steve Jobs: technically no. But I did have a Steve Jobs moment. I was sitting in the Lobby of Bandley 3 waiting to pick up someone who was working on what would become the Macintosh when Steve strode through the Lobby on his way out. He was in a hurry and looked neither left nor right, so he didn't see me (I didn't work for Apple at the time). So we shared the same "space" for about four or five seconds.
P.S. I wasn't asking for investment advice, but what was the general take on the slowing iPhone growth and if Apple will be agile enough to catch the post-mobile next big thing. My own take is the iPhone will probably see modest growth, much like the Mac over the last five years and for pretty much the same reasons, and Apple's track record with respect to Siri, Maps and Apple Music since their respective introductions makes me skeptical about Apple's agility.
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Post by nagrani on Jun 18, 2016 15:22:49 GMT -8
Do you sell covered calls against your position for week/monthly income? I'd be doing that
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Post by sponge on Jun 18, 2016 16:11:17 GMT -8
I think the iPhone has plenty of growth left. 35 years post PC revolution Mac was growing 18% just 2 years ago. That's an average of $1300 a Mac when a PC could be bought for $400. The iPhone went from 7% growth to 46%. We can see 25% easily with the right technology.
Not only is smartphone adoption far from over, but as 4G expands in Asia, India, and South America, we will see further sales. We are looking 10 years into the future.
Switchers are ripe for the taking, and Apple can introduce features and price points that will speed up that area alone.
Yes we have had issues with Maps, Siri, Music. But overall we have hundreds of reasons why iOS Is superior to Android.
As the base expands we will see further growth in services.
Then we have new products like Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats, and other new stuff.
The future has never been brighter.
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Post by BillH on Jun 18, 2016 22:12:56 GMT -8
rickag: "Wish I had worked for Apple just for the experience color me envious. Did you ever meet Steve Jobs?" There were three places that I wanted to work when I moved to Silicon Valley in 1975: Xerox PARC, HP Labs, and Apple. I made it to the last two. I too would be envious except for the experience I had. As to meeting Steve Jobs: technically no. But I did have a Steve Jobs moment. I was sitting in the Lobby of Bandley 3 waiting to pick up someone who was working on what would become the Macintosh when Steve strode through the Lobby on his way out. He was in a hurry and looked neither left nor right, so he didn't see me (I didn't work for Apple at the time). So we shared the same "space" for about four or five seconds. My daughter was only there for three weeks when she was in High School and yet...,
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 19, 2016 11:21:29 GMT -8
Happy Father's Day to all the dads!! Hope you have a chance to spend today with your sons and/or daughters.
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Post by rickag on Jun 19, 2016 15:36:30 GMT -8
I don't know how to post a link to a post on Seeking Alpha but thought this was very well written:
By Wiseyou 6/19/16 2:11pm
This article suggests that Apple is having trouble in China. The article incorrectly assumes that actions of disparate government agencies against Apple are related, were approved by top government leaders, and are part of a continuing effort to persecute Apple. The government of China is a huge sprawling bureaucracy with many competing factions. A careful look at each of the actions purported to be against Apple suggest a different picture altogether.
The news that a little known company called Shenzhen Baili won a injunction against Apple iPhone 6 and 6 plus sales in Beijing, based on claims that Apples infringed on a patented smartphone design, has surprised many people (http://tinyurl.com/h9q...). The injunction has been stayed pending appeal but the case sent shock waves all over the industry. Chinese companies are clearly learning to take advantage of a maturing domestic patent system in China, utilizing patents in China to blackmail overseas companies selling products in China. According to Wall Street Journal, Shenzhen Baili is related to a company named Digione, both headed by XU Guoxiang, who was global handsets marketing director for Huawei. Baidu is the largest investor in Digione. In 2015, Apple failed to invalidate a Baili patent for the exterior design of its 100C smartphone awarded in July of 2014. Subsequently, the Beijing Intellectual Property Bureau ruled that Apple's iPhone 6 and 6 plus infringed on this patent and posted this ruling on May 19, 2016. Apple appealed to the National Intellectual Property Court. The outcome of the appeal will be interesting. Few people, even in China, believe that Apple copied its iPhone 6 and 6+ design from this obscure Shenzhen company and that people are buying the Apple iPhone 6 and 6+because it looks like the the C100. The motivation underlying Shenzhen Baili efforts is clear. In 2015, Baili sent a letter to Apple saying that they hoped to resolve this patent dispute out of court (hint hint... a big settlement). It is possible that a word from a powerful government official may stop this case but this probably will cost Apple more than paying off Baili. This is business as usual in China. This is not a trend of Chinese government persecution of Apple. (Conti)
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Post by rickag on Jun 19, 2016 15:41:38 GMT -8
The article cited an earlier case that Apple lost, a trademark case against a small cell phone case maker that used the name iPhone. Please note that Apple filed the suit, not the government nor the company. Apple lost this case because the cell phone cover company had filed for a trademark in China before Apple filed for a trademark or sold iPhones in China. Apple was not seriously hurt by the decision on this case because the iPhone name is so well known that nobody will mistake a cell phone case for Apple's iPhone. In fact, one wonders why Apple did not simply buy the cell phone cover company instead of allowing this case to go public. It probably would have cost less.
The article also cited the April suspension of Apple iTunes video and iBooks as possible evidence of persecution of Apple by the Chinese government. The shutdown of Apple video and iTunes is part of a larger effort by the Ministry of Culture to reduce sales of what they consider pornography and politically forbidden contents on Internet, an effort that targeted many Chinese companies, especially those providing cloud services from which individuals or companies are selling prohibited content. The government issued new new regulations that forbid foreign ownership and joint ventures of online publishing and stipulated that all the contents must be stored on servers in China. So, Apple has to make sure that the digital products they sell on iTunes/iBooks comply with the new regulations and find a partner in China. Incidentally, Amazon (Conti)
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Post by rickag on Jun 19, 2016 15:43:06 GMT -8
did it correctly by partnering with a local Chinese firm to sell books and other products. They have not been suspended.
Chinese companies that do not comply with internet regulations are aggressively prosecuted. For example, the equivalent of the Chinese Ministry of Health (now called the National Health and Family Planning Commission) recently went after Baidu (the Chinese equivalent of Google) for allowing advertisements of an experimental therapy by a military hospital that led to the death of a university student (http://tinyurl.com/hwd...). The Ministry forced Baidu to vet ads of medical therapies on their web sites and to establish a billion remingbi fund to compensate people who were harmed by their ads. The modus operandi of Chinese government enforcement of regulations is that they find a big company that has transgressed and they punish that company severely and publicly to discourage similar behavior by other companies. The higher profile you have, the more likely you will be selected to be an example for others. Apple has a high profile.
I don't think that the actions of the patent office or the suspension of iTunes Video/iBooks indicate a "strained relationship" between the government of China and Apple. This is not the way the Chinese government works. If the government were unhappy with Apple, they would not bother with such petty actions. They would start with an article in the China Daily or Xin Hua news criticizing Apple. This would then escalate to teams of investigators visiting the company's headquarters to confiscate computers for evidence, followed by accusations of Apple of breaking the law. This is what happened to Microsoft, shortly after they shut down Window XP, which many Chinese governmental officials depended on. Since then, despite many attempts by Microsoft to restore the relationship, Beijing has turned a cold shoulder to the company that developed the most used operating system in China and then abandoned it to make more money.
The article compares Apple with Google's departure from China. According to Google, they left because China was demanding access to their servers and technology. Some people wrote as if Googles departure would be China's loss (http://tinyurl.com/jg4...) and predicted that the departure would discourage other foreign investment. In reality, of course, it was Google's loss and Baidu's gain. China is unlikely to allow Google back into the country any time soon. To do so would be a loss of "face" for the Chinese government. On March 21, 2010, Xinhua published an article (http://tinyurl.com/yat...) expressed the sentiments of the Chinese government on Google: (Conti)
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Post by rickag on Jun 19, 2016 15:44:05 GMT -8
"...no country allows unrestricted flow on the Internet of pornographic, violent, gambling or superstitious content, or content on government subversion, ethnic separation, religious extremism, racialism, terrorism, and anti-foreign feelings... Regrettably, Google's recent behavior show that the company not just aims at expanding business in China, but is playing an active role in exporting culture, value and ideas. It is unfair for Google to impose its own value and yardsticks on Internet regulation in China, which has its own time-honored tradition, culture, and value. Google is currently at a crossroad. Whether it eventually leaves the Chinese market or not, one thing is certain -- China's Internet market, which has already been the world's biggest with nearly half 400 million netizens will continue to prosper. Whether it leaves or not, the Chinese government will keep its internet regulation principles unchanged. One company's ambition to change China's Internet rules and legal system will only prove to be ridiculous."
Of the U.S. companies that have worked in and with China, Apple is by far the most successful. Greater China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong (all considered part of China by the Beijing government) accounted for 24% of Apple's revenues In 2015. Not surprisingly, Apple wants China to know that Apple loves China (http://tinyurl.com/hcm...). Thus, when Apple announced Scribbles for the Apple Watch at the recent WWDC, they pointed out Scribbles is available in English and Chinese first. Apple also showcased China's Wechat program at WWDC to they illustrate what Siri could do. Apple recently invested $1 billion into Didi, the leading car/driver service in China and the world. Apple supports China's Alipay, in addition to their own Apple Pay.
There is ample evidence of China's love of Apple. Apple has been allowed to forge partnerships with ChinaMobile, Alipay, and UnionPay, respectively the largest internet commerce company, the biggest cell service provider, and the dominant credit card provider in China. Apple is the most admired company in China. In fact, many Chinese think of Apple almost as a Chinese company, since most of its products are made in China. In 2015, Chinese consumers and businesses spent $59 billion on Apple products, more than they spend on the products of any other company in China. China understands that it was Apple's decision to manufacture iPhones in China that cemented China's reputation as the best premium product manufacturer in the world.
Hope I didn't screw this up or broke any forum rules, but this is the most reasoned information I have seen
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jun 20, 2016 0:22:49 GMT -8
Many thanks. V interesting!
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