Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 4, 2012 14:59:03 GMT -8
It transcends iOS. It's a just plain carrier issue.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 14:59:54 GMT -8
Given the amount of cash apple would have collected since the end of last quarter - I can say with confidence that apples ex cash PE ratio is now under 10.
An AAPL ex-Cash PE ratio of 10 is my standard "SCREAMING BUY" metric - I am already all-in, but am now rummaging under some couch cushions to see if I can find a little extra to pick up some bargain priced calls or spreads.
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Post by rickag on Nov 4, 2012 15:01:35 GMT -8
Thank you for the answer. I am on AT&T. Weird that this problem just started in the on my iPhone in the last few days. Does anyone know if buying the Proboards app corrects the issue? Have you done the iOS 6.0.1 update yet? It might fix the issue. It might not, but you probably want to update anyhow. Actually, yes I have, thank you for reminding me, now that I think about it, this issue began after I updated, I think..…getting old the memory fading. Spreaking of age, Happy Birthday roni. While mucking aroun in my profile I noticed a calendar.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 15:03:44 GMT -8
Here's my take on things... The EOs are equal opportunity hunters; they take equal pleasure in bankrupting bears and bulls. At 705, they STO'ed new calls to greedy bulls and fearful bears, and BTC'ed the puts they sold at 570 to greedy bears and fearful bulls. At 575, they again STO'ed new puts to greedy bears and fearful bulls, and BTC'ed the calls they STO'ed at 705 to greedy bulls and fearful bears. See how this works? Very soon, bear-hunting season will commence. This is exactly what I saw doing the math using P/C Ratio, OI, and my own Institutional Sentiment Index. AAPL's moves lined up perfectly with the above and my Historical Move Index. It wasn't until I added correlation with P/C Ratio that cause and effect became clear. Your explanation above describes exactly what transpired, my spreadsheets revealed it in near real time. The divergence from Historical Move Index was the first indicator that something was amiss, but without the math emanating from P/C Ratio I couldn't see the causation. This Bear run became official (according to my analysis) on September 21 when AAPL set a new ATH ($705), but was indicated 4 days earlier when AAPL price moves diverged from my Historical Move Index (which had been Bullish to that point). We have an early indicator that this Bear run is over in P/C Ratio. That ratio bottomed last week at 0.70:1.0, and has risen to 0.72:1.0 since then. As a point of reference, on Sept 21 P/C Ratio was 0.98:1.0 (AAPL hit ATH on that date), then dropped rapidly to 0.72:1.0 weeks later, bounced along at 0.72, 0.71, 0.71, 0.70, 0.70 then began to rise on October 29. We now have 3 consecutive up Put/Call Ratio days. Importantly, the ratio of Puts to Calls is being impacted by greater volume of Call Open Interest (new contracts). Thursday is important to me because I track AAPL's Week over Week performance against Historic Moves.
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Post by rosie on Nov 4, 2012 15:11:38 GMT -8
Have you done the iOS 6.0.1 update yet? It might fix the issue. It might not, but you probably want to update anyhow. Actually, yes I have, thank you for reminding me, now that I think about it, this issue began after I updated, I think..…getting old the memory fading. well, ol' timer, maybe doing a complete phone re set and then re installing connected to your computer might help. or not. I was having wifi freeze up issues on both the phone and iPad after upgrading to just plain iOS6. bought an airport express with 2 frequencies available and that problem stopped.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 4, 2012 15:15:07 GMT -8
ProBoards doesn't play well with certain flavors of AT&T cellular. No fix in sight. Not sure about other carriers. It does not work on my VZ iphone 5 either.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 4, 2012 15:16:51 GMT -8
Given the amount of cash apple would have collected since the end of last quarter - I can say with confidence that apples ex cash PE ratio is now under 10. An AAPL ex-Cash PE ratio of 10 is my standard "SCREAMING BUY" metric - I am already all-in, but am now rummaging under some couch cushions to see if I can find a little extra to pick up some bargain priced calls or spreads. Not yet Burgess, but darn close.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 15:31:31 GMT -8
Given the amount of cash apple would have collected since the end of last quarter - I can say with confidence that apples ex cash PE ratio is now under 10. An AAPL ex-Cash PE ratio of 10 is my standard "SCREAMING BUY" metric - I am already all-in, but am now rummaging under some couch cushions to see if I can find a little extra to pick up some bargain priced calls or spreads. Not a bad metric. I have two others I use, all ex-cash. ISM under 9: Mortgage house, hock family jewelry, sell kids into indentured servitude. ISM under 8: Wish kids well. Don't leave forwarding address
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Post by roni on Nov 4, 2012 15:38:00 GMT -8
Given the amount of cash apple would have collected since the end of last quarter - I can say with confidence that apples ex cash PE ratio is now under 10. An AAPL ex-Cash PE ratio of 10 is my standard "SCREAMING BUY" metric - I am already all-in, but am now rummaging under some couch cushions to see if I can find a little extra to pick up some bargain priced calls or spreads. Last July I sold all my dividend positions to raise money to buy Apple calls. Did all right and went back into divvy positions starting this past May. Have 16 of those positions now, and a bunch of Apples. Not going to do that again this year. I am content with the amount of money I have in Apple and with the dividends and dividend increases I have been seeing. TTM P/E near 13 is buying time. I am all bought up now and will patiently wait for the pay-off - and when it comes I will move some more profits to the divvy side of the portfolio.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 4, 2012 15:42:08 GMT -8
Given the amount of cash apple would have collected since the end of last quarter - I can say with confidence that apples ex cash PE ratio is now under 10. An AAPL ex-Cash PE ratio of 10 is my standard "SCREAMING BUY" metric - I am already all-in, but am now rummaging under some couch cushions to see if I can find a little extra to pick up some bargain priced calls or spreads. Good point. Even in the depths of the 2008 meltdown, the lowest intraday ex-cash PE we reached was 9.52. The lowest over the past year is 9.67 after Q1 earnings. In May we went as low as 9.89. Beginning with the 4Q11 earnings, we've only closed below an ex-cash PE of 10 four times. All of those came immediately after the Q1 earnings. We've closed below 10.5 just twenty days, with ten of those immediately after Q1 earnings. All signs point to us being at or very near the bottom. Let's just hope that holds true.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 4, 2012 15:52:56 GMT -8
For even short term money managers the opportunity to buy Apple at 575 or 580, capture the dividend, then sell within weeks ( days! Hours!) at a price above their cost....must be extremely compelling.
Really, is there meaningful downside to a money manager here?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 4, 2012 15:55:31 GMT -8
Sure. The Rochdale Capital effect.
Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Aside from that, it's very hard for me to see AAPL doing a NFLX anytime soon, if you can ride out the current storm.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 15:59:00 GMT -8
Given the amount of cash apple would have collected since the end of last quarter - I can say with confidence that apples ex cash PE ratio is now under 10. An AAPL ex-Cash PE ratio of 10 is my standard "SCREAMING BUY" metric - I am already all-in, but am now rummaging under some couch cushions to see if I can find a little extra to pick up some bargain priced calls or spreads. Good point. Even in the depths of the 2008 meltdown, the lowest intraday ex-cash PE we reached was 9.52. The lowest over the past year is 9.67 after Q1 earnings. In May we went as low as 9.89. Beginning with the 4Q11 earnings, we've only closed below an ex-cash PE of 10 four times. All of those came immediately after the Q1 earnings. We've closed below 10.5 just twenty days, with ten of those immediately after Q1 earnings. All signs point to us being at or very near the bottom. Let's just hope that holds true. The timing of those dates is not surprising. FQ1 typically generates monster earnings, but isn't consistently followed with good results in FQ2. That has the effect of raising TTM while AAPL languishes until April earnings. This is true going back to 2005, and isn't dependent on WTF sales to occur. Historically, the absolute best time to go long AAPL is mid February. This February I will be shifting my investment strategy to acquire shares using my previously described Spread strategy with annual LEAPS.
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Post by nate010203 on Nov 4, 2012 16:12:55 GMT -8
I have a dividend question. It says the dividend is payable on November 15 for all shareholders on record as of November 12 So does that mean that if someone were to buy on the 12th then they would receive the dividend on the 15th? Last time I just held thru both dates because its very confusing and they dont really explain how it works. What if you bought on the 12th and then sold later that day... would you still get the dividend? Would you have to buy the 12th and hold over night and sell the 13th or would you have to hold till the 15th? Please excuse my ignorance
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 16:21:42 GMT -8
Nate, factor in settlement time. You have to buy in time to have settled shares in your account on November 12. This date is the ex-dividend date (November 7). So you have to buy before then to get the dividend. And yes, you can turn around and sell such that the sale doesn't settle until November 13, and you will still get the dividend.
In theory, the price is reduced by the amount of the dividend after the stock goes ex-dividend...but when you're dealing with a high beta like AAPL, you don't really notice the dividend factor amid the usual up 10, down 10, around 10 stuff.
I think you can game the system with "stock + options" because of the difference in settlement dates...but not with "stock + stock."
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 4, 2012 16:29:48 GMT -8
amid the usual up 10, down 10, around 10 stuff. I remember the down, but am struggling with up and around. Would this be a good time to start talking politics? ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 16:32:51 GMT -8
Bite your tongue, Max!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 16:42:57 GMT -8
(...)ISM under 9: Mortgage house, hock family jewelry, sell kids into indentured servitude. ISM under 8: Wish kids well. Don't leave forwarding address ROFL!!!! Where on the ISM spectrum is: sell 1 car, sell 2 cars, sell ALL cars?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 16:51:41 GMT -8
Am I the only one that is excited about the seemingly deliberate gap that was created in the product calendar in March... (...) Not my area of expertise. Mine would be the seemingly deliberate gap that was created in the stock calendar 9/24: 699.36 to 695.12.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 4, 2012 17:03:45 GMT -8
Nate, factor in settlement time. You have to buy in time to have settled shares in your account on November 12. This date is the ex-dividend date (November 7). So you have to buy before then to get the dividend. And yes, you can turn around and sell such that the sale doesn't settle until November 13, and you will still get the dividend. In theory, the price is reduced by the amount of the dividend after the stock goes ex-dividend...but when you're dealing with a high beta like AAPL, you don't really notice the dividend factor amid the usual up 10, down 10, around 10 stuff. I think you can game the system with "stock + options" because of the difference in settlement dates...but not with "stock + stock." Could you specify what you mean more by "game the system" using that technique?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 17:13:36 GMT -8
Could you specify what you mean more by "game the system" using that technique? Read: This Thread
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 4, 2012 17:19:53 GMT -8
Good point. Even in the depths of the 2008 meltdown, the lowest intraday ex-cash PE we reached was 9.52. The lowest over the past year is 9.67 after Q1 earnings. In May we went as low as 9.89. The comparison to 2008 might make one think: "It's about as low as it was when people were expecting Great Depression II, so that's got to be a solid floor, right?" But don't forget that in 2008 Apple was still using the old GAAP rules, so reported earnings were artificially deflated and thus P/E was artificially inflated. "Real" P/E based on real earnings was a lot lower back then. Using restated earnings to see apples to apples P/E comparisons, the intraday low P/E on March 6, 2009, was 6.86. 6.86
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 17:21:36 GMT -8
(...)Wish I could be this clear and logical....and unemotional.. Investing requires ice in the veins. Red, you haven't heard me swear at the market -- my trading group has!!
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Post by lance on Nov 4, 2012 17:55:44 GMT -8
Has aapl had 6 straight weeks down (red) before this streak?
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Post by lance on Nov 4, 2012 17:57:16 GMT -8
since 2008
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 18:10:12 GMT -8
Can Apple uses it's cash reserves stashed overseas to buyback stock or would they have to re-patriate the cash (and pay the tax) first? If not, it seems like a great thing to do with a spare 50 Billion or so.
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Post by kloot on Nov 4, 2012 18:26:32 GMT -8
Good point. Even in the depths of the 2008 meltdown, the lowest intraday ex-cash PE we reached was 9.52. The lowest over the past year is 9.67 after Q1 earnings. In May we went as low as 9.89. The comparison to 2008 might make one think: "It's about as low as it was when people were expecting Great Depression II, so that's got to be a solid floor, right?" But don't forget that in 2008 Apple was still using the old GAAP rules, so reported earnings were artificially deflated and thus P/E was artificially inflated. "Real" P/E based on real earnings was a lot lower back then. Using restated earnings to see apples to apples P/E comparisons, the intraday low P/E on March 6, 2009, was 6.86. 6.86 yes, but investors didn't have that information at the time. so it's more appropriate to use the PE ratio that everyone was working with at the time.
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Post by alice on Nov 4, 2012 18:51:29 GMT -8
It is still early ... futures are green.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 4, 2012 19:00:04 GMT -8
Nate, factor in settlement time. You have to buy in time to have settled shares in your account on November 12. This date is the ex-dividend date (November 7). So you have to buy before then to get the dividend. And yes, you can turn around and sell such that the sale doesn't settle until November 13, and you will still get the dividend. In theory, the price is reduced by the amount of the dividend after the stock goes ex-dividend...but when you're dealing with a high beta like AAPL, you don't really notice the dividend factor amid the usual down 10, down 15, down 20 stuff.I think you can game the system with "stock + options" because of the difference in settlement dates...but not with "stock + stock." fixed
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Post by cambrose on Nov 4, 2012 19:01:28 GMT -8
Just ordered 4 minis for the kids and spouses for Christmas. Polygamy might have its advantages, but, man, it can sure get expensive. Good for AAPL longs though. That would be the kid's spouses but it was good for a big LOL! Thanks!
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