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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 22, 2013 19:07:16 GMT -8
both , I guess.
GM is also sober. Few are expecting over 40 %.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2013 19:13:37 GMT -8
both , I guess. GM is also sober. Few are expecting over 40 %. 40.5% seems like the very upper edge of reason considering previous quarters and the guided-vs.-actual of Q1 2012. 39.5% may actually prove aggressive if Apple has decided to continue their custom "go for share" approach. While I would understand Apple's logic, a steep GM decline will need a whole bunch of explaining. I'm sure the explanation will be provided...I just don't want to get to that point in the first place. That's the "problem" with building for the future...it involves considerable front-loaded costs.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 22, 2013 19:20:23 GMT -8
No group think there. ;D Could not resist Mav.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2013 19:21:46 GMT -8
Hey, I'm the one who carried it over from AFB1. You're welcome. ;D
So sober, we should invite an order of monks over here for the post-earnings bash.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 23, 2013 2:43:41 GMT -8
Earnings day!
Here are my numbers:
Product: Units (ASP) / Category: Revenues iPhones: 51,500,000 ($650) iPads: 19,000,000 ($450) iPods: 13,000,000 ($160) Macs: 5,000,000 ($1.358) iTunes: $2,650 mil. Peripherals: $840 mil. Software: $930 mil. TOTAL: $55,315 mil.
GM: 38.5% Opex: $4,150 mil. OI&E: $400 mil. Tax rate: 25.75%
NET INCOME: $13,028 mil.
Shares outstanding: 948 mil.
EPS: $13.74
GUIDANCE Q2 2013: Revenues: $42 bil. EPS: $10,5
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 23, 2013 6:51:56 GMT -8
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooo Al, not liking one bit.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 23, 2013 7:09:16 GMT -8
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooo Al, not liking one bit. I don't like it either and I would love to see a higher EPS and (more importantly) a higher guidance for next quarter. However, I prefer to be a little cautious with my assumptions.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 8:02:50 GMT -8
$42B? You're kidding, right?
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Post by Big Al on Jan 23, 2013 8:15:13 GMT -8
$42B? You're kidding, right? No, I am not. So you think it is not possible that Apple guides 42B for Q2?
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 23, 2013 8:24:54 GMT -8
My guess for revenue is over $62B. $42B sounds fine to me for guidance as my guess for guidance is $42.5B. My guess for EPS guidance is higher, $11.6.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 8:31:31 GMT -8
Oh I think it's possible.
But anything's possible.
Do you remember fiscal Q1 2012 revs?
Fiscal Q2?
The # of weeks in Q1 2012?
What happened in Q1 2013? (Hint: Mega new product turnover.)
$42B guidance would be miserable.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 23, 2013 9:52:58 GMT -8
What if they don't offer guidance? Is that a possibility?
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Post by fas550 on Jan 23, 2013 9:59:00 GMT -8
What if they don't offer guidance? Is that a possibility? I think all execs on the call know that would be a disaster. It would just crush growth confidence
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Post by appledoc on Jan 23, 2013 10:37:13 GMT -8
What if they don't offer guidance? Is that a possibility? I think all execs on the call know that would be a disaster. It would just crush growth confidence Short term, maybe. But if Q2 actual is solid (which I expect it will be), then everyone can shut up and we don't have to go through FUD analysis of guidance ever again.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 12:50:49 GMT -8
Just trust us on this one, it would be an absolute disaster. You don't guide for tens of quarters and just decide to stop. And if the market "claims" it can't "adjust" to the guidance patterns after all these years, there's a red flag that any changes other than issuing more "realistic" guidance consistently would be futile.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 23, 2013 13:10:23 GMT -8
Just trust us on this one, it would be an absolute disaster. You don't guide for tens of quarters and just decide to stop. And if the market "claims" it can't "adjust" to the guidance patterns after all these years, there's a red flag that any changes other than issuing more "realistic" guidance consistently would be futile. I trust you guys. Guidance will continue to be a thorn in my side.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 13:27:02 GMT -8
It's been a thorn in most of us "grizzled AAPL veterans'" sides for years. We deal with it in different ways.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 23, 2013 13:39:42 GMT -8
nice call Big Al
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 14:02:57 GMT -8
Agreed. Very nice call, Big Al. I'm not sure I like what it portends.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 14:03:56 GMT -8
Tim Cook doesn't sound nearly as irritated as he seemed for the fiscal Q3 call, btw. Which was the most irritated I'd ever heard him and Oppenheimer in recent years.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 24, 2013 3:12:25 GMT -8
I was praying to be proven wrong.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 24, 2013 9:09:33 GMT -8
I would have to say the early November reports of production constraints were correct.
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