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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 10, 2012 6:38:50 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 10, 2012 6:41:26 GMT -8
Peter Misek is concerned about long term margin compression. Next month, he will raise target price.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 20:20:26 GMT -8
Anyone know Misek's track record? Sure is saying a lot, but I'm inherently skeptical of the signal-to-noise ratio with WS types.
One exception being Ming-Chi Kuo (of KGI...and he doesn't publish estimates/price targets?), who IIRC has been quite accurate.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 11, 2012 10:22:08 GMT -8
I foresee Apple Guidance for Q2 $ 8.25 at the low end. This allows for sandbagging at many a level of earnings.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 11, 2012 19:30:37 GMT -8
Uh, with year-ago EPS at $12.30, tons of fresh product, and equivalent year-ago guidance being $8.20? Not likely, IMHO.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 11, 2012 19:41:19 GMT -8
That would be true if we had gross margins at 44 %. Instead the majority of Q1 estimates that I see are 38-40 % with Q2 at 39-41.5 %
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 11, 2012 20:37:17 GMT -8
Well, look at it this way. Forget the margins and deconstruct.
(post in progress)
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 11, 2012 21:19:59 GMT -8
That would be true if we had gross margins at 44 %. Instead the majority of Q1 estimates that I see are 38-40 % with Q2 at 39-41.5 % What has happened is that when the Q1 numbers were dropped, the Q2 numbers were also dropped. I think WS has serious doubts about Q2.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 12, 2012 8:35:02 GMT -8
I'm concerned on iPhone unit sales. 55 M unit comes from which regions ? As for me, anything over $ 14.70 is a strong win. 14+ is respectable in the long run, tho Wall Street may have other opinions. We need a nice strong post by Horace, PED or other person in a prominent location to show AAPL is currently undervalued, no matter the bear, moderate or of course bull cases of any quarter.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 12, 2012 12:22:42 GMT -8
Again, normalized results and context matter so much.
Unit growth will allay any EPS growth concerns, IMHO.
I think Nansen is just too bullish for his own good on those estimates. I can see Apple getting over 50M, but one marker at a time please. This is NOT the time to be thinking 55M.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 6:46:23 GMT -8
I'm concerned on iPhone unit sales. 55 M unit comes from which regions ? As for me, anything over $ 14.70 is a strong win. 14+ is respectable in the long run, tho Wall Street may have other opinions. We need a nice strong post by Horace, PED or other person in a prominent location to show AAPL is currently undervalued, no matter the bear, moderate or of course bull cases of any quarter. CL4, WS consensus is around 13.50, so yes, I would be thrilled with $14.70.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 13, 2012 7:01:35 GMT -8
Positive article on Apple gross margins at Seeking Alpha by Gary Morton
Historically, the holiday quarter has the best gross margins, so Apple's 36 % guidance may be the worst/best sandbag of the year.
One note: I would disagree on the definition of "miss" with the author. Strictly speaking the author is correct. Looking at the big picture of guidance and other projections, I disagree with the author.
(quotation marks for Tim Cook's words added for clarity)
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 7:15:30 GMT -8
I just read through Nick's estimates for the quarter, WOW. I think he has been baking in the sun to long.
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Post by rickag on Dec 13, 2012 9:39:41 GMT -8
I just read through Nick's estimates for the quarter, WOW. I think he has been baking in the sun to long. His estimates were very bullish, but I hope he is right. I've rolled out all but one of my BCSs to Apr and am now trying to roll them out again. I'm not as bullish as Nick.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 19:57:12 GMT -8
I just read through Nick's estimates for the quarter, WOW. I think he has been baking in the sun to long. His estimates were very bullish, but I hope he is right. I've rolled out all but one of my BCSs to Apr and am now trying to roll them out again. I'm not as bullish as Nick. Neither am I, I think he is nuts. lol
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Post by alice on Dec 13, 2012 20:22:11 GMT -8
Why is his estimates nuts? Is it really out of the question? I am hoping he is right as well.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 20:31:08 GMT -8
Why is his estimates nuts? Is it really out of the question? I am hoping he is right as well. Alice, I have followed the independents for a long time. Over time you will see the same names constantly accurate. That guy name Luke seems to be one smart cookie. Chas has also been very good, along with Deagol, Navin and Alexis. I am going back a long time, as there have been some who have been hot and cold. Yes, Nick is off base. He kind of gave himself about 3 estimates. That is so he can say he is right with a wide range of numbers. Like I have said. I see no value in Nick's site anymore.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 14, 2012 7:15:45 GMT -8
Mac Desktops (after lengthy discussion with independent investor MC at a nearby forum), some highly preliminary numbers.
units in hundreds of thousand 260 Mini 40 Pro 200 iMacs
500 K desktops $ 1145 ASP
---------- Meanwhile, in Q2 (January to March)
Mac Mini 200 Mac Pro 40 iMac 21 460 iMac 27 300 ALL DESKTOPS 1000
ASP $ 1376
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 14, 2012 7:57:25 GMT -8
Mac Laptops kickstarter numbers, hundreds of thousand
Air 11" : 800 K Air 13" : 450 K MB 13" : 1500 K MB 15" : 1400 K
total 4150 K ASP $ 1363
This is 200 K (rounded) more laptops in December quarter than Jul-Sept.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 14, 2012 8:39:56 GMT -8
iPod kickstarter numbers.
Previous quarter:
2200 Shuffles and Nanos, ASP 120. (I know , hard to believe, but it gives us a framework) 3300 Touches, ASP $ 180
Current quarter kickstarter:
4500 Shuffles and Nanos 130 5000 iPod touch 4, 170 2500 iPod touch 5, 300
Total : 12 M units at 180 ASP (rounded).
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 14, 2012 8:42:10 GMT -8
Having a mix helps nail down the ASP. ASP's do jump around, but within certain ballparks.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 14, 2012 8:52:15 GMT -8
iPhone kickstarter,
Last quarter
9000 iPhone 4 13000 4S 5000 iPhone 5
27 M at ASP 636. (rounded)
------ This quarter the moderate Wall Street case
7000 iPhone 4 10000 4S 31000 iPhone 5
48 M total, ASP ....... mmm
ASP is hard to copy from Q4 to Q1 due to price shifting.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 14, 2012 10:31:23 GMT -8
iPad kickstarter
Last quarter, units in millions (some rounding )
10 = iPad 3, ASP 570 4 = iPad 2, ASP 448 14 = all, ASP 535
Estimate for regular size iPads
13 = iPad 4 (RD = Retina Display), ASP 570 4 = iPad 2 450 17 M = ASP 541
iPad mini 8500, ASP 350.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 14, 2012 10:36:58 GMT -8
Now we come to the big coconuts of iPhone
Q4 wild guesses -- (some analyst had their own numbers)
unit sales in millions
.... Sales, ASP, Revenue Four 9 550 4950 FourS 13 650 8450 Five 5 750 3750 ALL 27 635 17150
Q1 wild guesses
Iphone 5 units would be 65 %. ASP is hard to nail down due to price changes in Q4.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2012 12:09:42 GMT -8
By my own estimates, the revenue from iPhone will be the highest % of total revenue ever, meaning GM% could beat by more than expected.
I think people have vastly underestimated the iPad Mini to iPad 10" sales ratio. From day 1 of preorders I have no doubt the iPad mini became the biggest selling model.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2012 13:03:15 GMT -8
For simplicity's sake I'm assuming a 2:1 iPad mini to iPad sales ratio.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 14, 2012 13:46:16 GMT -8
For simplicity's sake I'm assuming a 2:1 iPad mini to iPad sales ratio. Yikes, that would be a big hit to revenue.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2012 13:57:23 GMT -8
You did see my baseline, right?
I don't really care if iPad mini cannibalizes iPad and dilutes ASP. What I care is that Apple be strong in that space. I suspect Apple feels the same way.
I kind of hope Apple can move ~15 million iPad minis this holiday season, because I'm no longer sure about iPad regular's popularity. But there's wiggle room for less units given my iPad total ASP assumption.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 14, 2012 14:32:01 GMT -8
You did see my baseline, right? I don't really care if iPad mini cannibalizes iPad and dilutes ASP. What I care is that Apple be strong in that space. I suspect Apple feels the same way. I kind of hope Apple can move ~15 million iPad minis this holiday season, because I'm no longer sure about iPad regular's popularity. But there's wiggle room for less units given my iPad total ASP assumption. I do agree with you Mav that the Mini will outsell the ipad4. Apple entered this market, but should do extremely well, especially when they go retina. I really would like to see colors like the touch. The growth in that line will grow rapidly. To bad the ASP is so low.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2012 16:40:46 GMT -8
Hmm...
If I see _enough_ promotions going on, I might have to adjust GM down from the 40% I have it at. I mean, it's not like retailers are willingly losing $50, $70ish, $100 on Apple devices just to get people in the door. Could this be a small part of what Oppenheimer meant?
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