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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 29, 2012 9:11:09 GMT -8
To sum up the EPS estimates:
Bear country is wondering about ATT smartphone data announced in early December. Bulls are looking at these revenue activations, China iPhone demand.
Slaughterhouses want the churn.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 29, 2012 16:19:38 GMT -8
Given, my estimate of $ 14.40 or so, I've been pushing the envelope up and down from there.
Credible numbers are going to be all over the map. $ 15.50 is in range if iPad ASP and iPhone unit sales beat my estimates by 10 and 5 % respectively plus a gross margin of 39.8
EDIT: I had forgotten what the ASPs were like 1 year ago. Sometimes I forget how much data we have.
Q1 Mac: 1270 iPod: 164 iPhone: 659 iPad: 593
Q2
Mac: 1263 iPod: 157 iPhone: 647 iPad: 558
Q3 Mac: 1227 iPod: 157 iPhone: 624 iPad: 538
Q4 Mac: 1344 iPod: 153 iPhone: 636 iPad: 535
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2012 12:39:52 GMT -8
Best wishes for an awesome new year and many happy returns, all you fundamentals people in the AFB2!
I'd expect things will pick up around here the closer we get to the earnings release which should be happening around the end of January. I'll definitely be revisiting my iPhone, iPad and GM estimations.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 31, 2012 13:28:47 GMT -8
I am at $14.07 and will not change. I think the Verizon numbers are going to suck. The difference should be made up with the expanded launch.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2012 13:47:48 GMT -8
Why? All iPhones seemed uniformly slammed on all carriers on Apple's website before supply/demand balance improved. Wouldn't the Vz iPhone 5s be available at least a little earlier if they were weaker sellers?
I doubt Apple cares as much about the appearance of demand these days. The tens in billions in revs each quarter speak for themselves. Under Tim, Apple just wants to address demand, and ASAP.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 31, 2012 14:14:35 GMT -8
Why? All iPhones seemed uniformly slammed on all carriers on Apple's website before supply/demand balance improved. Wouldn't the Vz iPhone 5s be available at least a little earlier if they were weaker sellers? I doubt Apple cares as much about the appearance of demand these days. The tens in billions in revs each quarter speak for themselves. Under Tim, Apple just wants to address demand, and ASAP. VZ is anti-Apple and pushes Android. We shall see. Sprint has been on a tear the last 6 months, I hope they surprise by 500k to the good side.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2012 14:33:12 GMT -8
VZ has always been pushing Android, but Apple finally, _finally_ has an LTE phone, so we're only now getting Apples-to-Androids comparisons on a more feature-competitive footing (with AT&T, at least there was 14.4 Mbps theoretical speed with their so-called "4G"). We'll see how it goes.
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Post by machouse on Dec 31, 2012 15:58:29 GMT -8
Isnt this the first time there is a free Iphone at verizon? I think it is, and if so verizon numbers are going to be the best of the three main US carriers (As far as YOY growth).
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 1, 2013 19:02:34 GMT -8
I just hope we continue to get lowered expectations from for this quarter from analysts, we don't need them to be high.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 2, 2013 15:04:34 GMT -8
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 3, 2013 6:06:32 GMT -8
So the Bill Clinton in you comes out? Did you really need to define "will" for us?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 3, 2013 6:56:02 GMT -8
So the Bill Clinton in you comes out? Did you really need to define "will" for us? LOL, People need to read the link to get the joke. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:12:28 GMT -8
Thanks for the assist!
-Bubba
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 7:30:02 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:31:07 GMT -8
I have a hard time seeing how iPhone 5 will significantly decay in Q2. A fresh phone and PLENTY of demand in Asia.
Also, Q2 is a fairer compare this year!
Also also, his iPhone number is LAUGHABLE. I don't think I need to say why Cl4.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 7:48:41 GMT -8
I would rather not have us always preaching to the choir.
Meanwhile, the Earnings Smackdown group has been putting their numbers out for everyone to see, both Wall Street and some AFB 1/Braeburn and friends such as Deagol.
At this time, my most bear case has a Q2 of $ 12.30 which is a tie for last year. Great sales this year with a tolerable gross margin of 41. Naturally, in 3 weeks, we'll get our AAPL earthquake, if not sooner with VZ numbers.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 7:49:38 GMT -8
Sure, but Cl4, let's be factual. What is he forecasting for YOY iPhone growth in Q2?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 8:09:53 GMT -8
Yes, I agree the Q2 number does seem unreasonable. At least 2 major things would have to go bad for the 37 M to occur. Over the next few days, we can come up with a comprehensive list of pro and con.
Note: In my pre-coffee morning, I was mixing Q1 and Q2 commentary too closely. Also, dog had to go outside 5 times last night. Temperature: 15 F.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 8:23:29 GMT -8
Reviewing Mav's spreadsheet of Oppy one more time and making some quick ballpark shavings
iPhone: 45.4M units @ $640 "ASP" (about 23% YOY growth OR about 33% YOY growth when throwing out the 14th week of Q1 2012 sales, assumed to be about 8% of Q1 2012 sales - besides, does anyone really believe the 14th week in the holiday quarter was just 1/14 of the company's quarterly revenue?) iPad: 22.22M units @ $433 "ASP" (44% YOY growth/about 56% "normalized" YOY growth) Mac: 5.21M units @ $1295 ASP (almost zero YOY growth/about 9% "normalized" YOY growth) iPod: 13.857M units @ $160 (-10% YOY growth/-2% YOY "normalized" YOY growth) Other music: $2.432B (+20% YOY) Peripherals: $919M (+20% YOY) Software/etc: $1.013B (+20% YOY) OI&E: +$405M (as guided by Oppenheimer, will leave it as is)
1. Mac sales... I have a reduction in sales due to fiscal cliff, iOS cannibalization and iMac reduced sales. Mac ASP is a question. 2. iPod sales... 13.8 M may be optimistic but trivial to EPS. 3. iPad ASP at 433 ? I was at 468 and moved up even more. 4. iPhone ASP of 640 is good enough for first draft.
Now to get Wall Street's estimate of $ 13.30, one way is 46 M iPhones, 24 M iPads and 4.6 M Macs.
I'm sure we will see some Wall Street analysts creeping upward on Q1.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 3, 2013 8:51:54 GMT -8
Does anyone know of any update on the Apple VirnetX trial and Judge Leonard Davis's order to release sales figures, including the iphone 5, by January 15th? I was briefly trying to find anything on it but haven't had any luck.
I'm wondering if the Judge is a stickler and will not budge on that date, what happens if Apple just disregards the judge's ruling? Can they do that? My guess is that they would just say something like, "it's not possible for us to gather the data in time".
I'm just trying to keep eyes on it because technically per that judges ruling, apple sales figures could be released any day now.
Or do you guys just think it's a BS ruling and won't happen?
For reference, here is the PR: December 20, 2012 – VirnetX™ Holding Corporation (NYSE MKT: VHC), an Internet security software and technology company, announced today that a post-trial motion hearing was held today in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, Tyler Division.
During the hearing, Judge Davis heard a number of motions from both sides. He ordered Apple to provide updated sales data for certain accused and unaccused products, including the iPhone 5 by January 15, 2013.
“We look forward to the updated sales data from Apple so the Court can make an informed ruling on our request for judgment.” said Kendall Larsen, VirnetX CEO and President.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 3, 2013 10:44:40 GMT -8
Let's run some high level numbers on the iPad Mini. I'm being conservative here.
Assumption: 10 million units sold ASP of iPad Mini: $375 ASP of iPad Retina: $530 25% net profit margin 940M outstanding shares
Scenario 1: half of iPad Mini customers would have purchased iPad Retina instead
Lost iPad Retina profit: 5M x $530 x 25% = -$662.5M iPad Mini profit: 10M x $375 x 25% = $937.5M Net profit due to iPad Mini: $275M EPS due to iPad Mini: $0.29
Scenario 2: a quarter of iPad Mini customers would have purchased iPad Retina instead
Lost iPad Retina profit: 2.5M x $530 x 25% = -$331.25M iPad Mini profit: 10M x $375 x 25% = $937.5M Net profit due to iPad Mini: $606.25M EPS due to iPad Mini: $0.64
Basically, the iPad Mini can only be beneficial to net earnings. The positive impact increases as more units are sold, in addition to increasing iOS market share, app revenue etc.
It's surprising to see the EPS numbers so relatively small do such a hit product. This really just underlines the importance of the iPhone to Apple.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 3, 2013 11:32:51 GMT -8
Let's run some high level numbers on the iPad Mini. I'm being conservative here. Assumption: 10 million units sold ASP of iPad Mini: $375 ASP of iPad Retina: $530 25% net profit margin 940M outstanding shares Scenario 1: half of iPad Mini customers would have purchased iPad Retina instead Lost iPad Retina profit: 5M x $530 x 25% = -$662.5M iPad Mini profit: 10M x $375 x 25% = $937.5M Net profit due to iPad Mini: $275M EPS due to iPad Mini: $0.29 Scenario 2: a quarter of iPad Mini customers would have purchased iPad Retina instead Lost iPad Retina profit: 2.5M x $530 x 25% = -$331.25M iPad Mini profit: 10M x $375 x 25% = $937.5M Net profit due to iPad Mini: $606.25M EPS due to iPad Mini: $0.64 Basically, the iPad Mini can only be beneficial to net earnings. The positive impact increases as more units are sold, in addition to increasing iOS market share, app revenue etc. It's surprising to see the EPS numbers so relatively small do such a hit product. This really just underlines the importance of the iPhone to Apple. You assume the iPad mini was available to purchase, which in most cases in the retail chain it was NOT in the lead up to Christmas. How about the scenario where one goes to buy an iPad mini but didn't find one in stock and refuses to buy an iPad, where they would have otherwise purchased an iPad had the iPad mini not existed? How many sales were "lost" or "postponed" due to the stock shortages of the iPad mini? The pricing of the low end iPad mini is approaching impulse buy territory and not having them in stock at big box stores, walmart, target, best buy, not to mention Apple's own stores...is really going to hurt.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 11:39:47 GMT -8
Harsh, Cl4. . But I never claimed to be an expert.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 11:53:02 GMT -8
With that last major post, I was analyzing Oppy and Wall Street to get a handle on the whisper number.
My official estimate is $ 14.45, as I recall.
Oppy guided 405 on OIE ?? checking
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 11:55:05 GMT -8
Yup! At least I'm pretty sure he did.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 3, 2013 12:03:54 GMT -8
OI&E guidance at 380. Seeking AlphaAs most of us know, if a portion of that 380, say... 180 for a final OIE of 130, is moved to Q4, it makes all of our numbers from last quarter look better by about 21 cents.
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Post by prazan on Jan 3, 2013 12:26:41 GMT -8
Super sharp analysis, tuffet. Thanks for running the numbers.
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Post by prazan on Jan 3, 2013 12:27:57 GMT -8
Here are my estimates for Q1 2013. I haven't caught up with my reading on this thread but thought I'd post first and then see how these numbers jibe with the others posted. Thanks to Mav for getting this thread up and running.
Macintosh 4,600,000 @ 1 305 iPhone: 49,600,00 @ 645 iPod: 10,135,000 @ 152 iPad: 25,700,000 @ 466 Revenue Macintosh 6,003,000,000 iPhone: 31,992,000,000 iPod: 1,540,520,000 iPad: 11,976,200 Peripherals: 855,000,000 Software: 975,000,000 Music/Other: 2,575,000,000 Total Revenue: 55,916,720,000 Gross Margin: 21,807,520,800 39.0% OpEx: 3,820,000 Operating Income: 17,987,520,000 OI&E: 380,000,000 Income Before Taxes: 18,367,520,800 Taxes -4,518,410,117 24.60% Net Income: 13,849,110,683 EPS: 14.60 Fully Diluted Share Count: 948,500,000
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2013 13:04:17 GMT -8
Sorry Cl4, you're right, it was $380M. Luckily, makes very little diff in my assumptions.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 3, 2013 13:17:44 GMT -8
You assume the iPad mini was available to purchase, which in most cases in the retail chain it was NOT in the lead up to Christmas. How about the scenario where one goes to buy an iPad mini but didn't find one in stock and refuses to buy an iPad, where they would have otherwise purchased an iPad had the iPad mini not existed? How many sales were "lost" or "postponed" due to the stock shortages of the iPad mini? The pricing of the low end iPad mini is approaching impulse buy territory and not having them in stock at big box stores, walmart, target, best buy, not to mention Apple's own stores...is really going to hurt. I think the number of people who would have bought an iPad Retina and ended up buying nothing is negligible, especially considering Christmas deliveries of the Mini were guaranteed in early December, and supply was good in the latter half of Decmeber. If you can put together a reasonable scenario where the iPad Mini is a net negative I'd love to see it.
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