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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 9:10:29 GMT -8
I look at the estimates and shake my head in amazement. 30 million ipads? How is that even possible since it launched so late? The opening weekend sales were good, but that (30) seems like a stretch. Although I think the mini screen shortage was just FUD, I have a hard time believing Apple transitioned the ipad4 to more than 13/14 million. Dennis is just excited about his Ducks winning the Rose bowl. (His iphone number is in line, not sure why he is so aggressive with the ipad?)
Nicolae has been accurate in the past, but his iphone number is ridiculous. Most of those guys at the top of the list are just looking to stand out. Seeing their names at the top of those lists separates them from the pack. It is great if Apple beats, but tossed aside if Apple does not.
I do not see Chas or Deagol, the list is not complete without them considering their track record. I looked at Daniels site and his last blog was in Oct.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 13, 2013 9:18:48 GMT -8
I sense the whisper number is on the rise. I tend to think that on 2 or 3 of 5 categories, we beat "expectations": iPhone, iPhone ASP, iPad, iPad ASP, gross margin.
So, there's room for any wall street spin. beware guidance.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 9:43:01 GMT -8
So, there's room for any wall street spin. beware guidance. The YOY is tough because of the GM. That was an insane GM last year and the stock still sold off. Tetra, nothing makes sense anymore. Lets hope there is a CM deal, it would show up in the guidance number.
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Post by prazan on Jan 13, 2013 12:36:52 GMT -8
Would a CM deal show in guidance? It may just present a greater opportunity to sandbag. If there are any provisions that would preclude launching to CM on time in the contract, then I suspect Apple would play it super conservative and not count those units. But maybe I'm being overly cautious here.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 13, 2013 12:55:21 GMT -8
I'm guessing CM deal does not show in guidance. It takes a while to ramp up the special frequencies. just depends on launch date.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 13, 2013 14:59:39 GMT -8
Interesting how the independents are relatively bullish on the iPhones and iPads and bearish on Macs, compared to the pros. This will be quite a telling quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 12:37:16 GMT -8
My numbers are based on 50 million iPhones - with that number its very difficult to come in under $14.00 This is my conservative estimate. ipads 2,500 $450.00 $11,250,000,000 iphones 5,000 $660.38 $33,019,000,000 macs 500 $1,344.00 $6,720,000,000 ipod 1,000 $150.00 $1,500,000,000 itunes $2,500,000,000 peripherals $850,000,000 software $900,000,000 Revenue $56,739,000,000 Gross Margin 38.50% $21,844,515,000 operating expenses $3,800,000,00 $18,044,515,000 OI&E $400,000,000 $18,444,515,000 Tax rate 25.00% NET PROFIT $13,833,386,250 Shares Outstanding 948186000. EPS: $14.59 (Trying to format in the proboards iPad app is hopeless - sorry) Last week I posted my conservative estimate. Today I nailed down my best guest estimate (which is fairly bullish): 54 million iPhones, GM 40%, EPS $16.27 I'm willing to put up with a bit of laughter, but If like me you think apple will ship 175 million iPhones this financial year (40% growth), and the global roll outs have been faster, then I think having 31% of the years shipments in the biggest quarter is reasonable if supply doesn't seem to be a problem.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 12:39:47 GMT -8
I think Q2 guidance will be around $11.00
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Post by chasmac on Jan 14, 2013 15:42:29 GMT -8
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Post by alice on Jan 14, 2013 15:47:28 GMT -8
Chas, will you be posting Q2 guidance numbers too?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 15:55:27 GMT -8
5.2M Macs, which is where I'm at, would actually be really strong considering how little a role iMac played in the holiday quarter.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 14, 2013 21:04:28 GMT -8
I'm at 5.1 million macs...slow rollout and a little cannibalization.
I'm encouraged that Chas, whom I know to be conservative and tough with a buck, is also in the $14.20-$14.50 club
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 21:49:42 GMT -8
GROUPTHINK! BEWARE! (OK, so I'm a little exasperated these days. Sorry 'bout that.)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 15, 2013 6:25:16 GMT -8
I think we all got to the numbers from different roads....
I can tweak GM and iPad numbers and get $13.50
I can build off of Asian iPhone sales numbers and production efficiencies and get to $15.00
Meh. We will soon know. $14.35 seems like the Goldilocks number...
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Post by appledoc on Jan 15, 2013 15:37:06 GMT -8
As of the Table Date (12/17/12), 938,818,605 shares of the Company’s common stock were issued and outstanding.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2013 16:16:14 GMT -8
That's basic or diluted?
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Post by appledoc on Jan 15, 2013 16:39:22 GMT -8
Basic. They didn't report the diluted unless I looked over it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2013 16:54:38 GMT -8
Well, we need diluted share counts to see if the buyback program really is putting a halt to share creep. I'll wait for the info release next Wednesday then.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 15, 2013 18:10:50 GMT -8
Basic. They didn't report the diluted unless I looked over it. They reported "outstanding" just to screw with us.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 15, 2013 18:48:45 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 15, 2013 19:38:16 GMT -8
Like I said, anything over $14 is golden. i do think two of the top three are taking advantage of the new laws in Washington.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 15, 2013 20:32:17 GMT -8
Like I said, anything over $14 is golden. i do think two of the top three are taking advantage of the new laws in Washington. Not sure what that means. Splain please...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2013 20:49:36 GMT -8
As self-appointed mod of this topic MB - don't stir the...pot. (get it now, chas) I think $14 relieves concerns at the minimum. Guidance will still be key and $10.50+ on an upbeat note sounds about par for the course for me. Hopefully some "true" upside surprise will arrive in the form of revs guidance that's much closer to Q1's rev guidance than anticipated. I'd say revs guidance of better than consensus - $48B+ - would be fine.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 15, 2013 20:49:50 GMT -8
No idea really with iPads, especially the mix. Can't believe some of the high guesses out there. I'm hoping GMs are higher due to better than expected iPhone part yields/production (this week's bs news?). Probably high on Macs as well but went with a ratio based on the Gartner number.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2013 20:54:05 GMT -8
Chas! GROUPTHINK. Heaven help us all! Ahem! What I really meant to say was, since there's no way you were influenced by li'l ol' me, our numbers are similar in a bunch of ways. Almost identical when it comes down to iPad ASP and potential iPad mini-to-iPad mix. More bullish on Mac ASP, less bullish on iPhone numbers though I do think they'll come in over 50M.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 15, 2013 21:02:53 GMT -8
Chas! GROUPTHINK. Heaven help us all! Ahem! What I really meant to say was, since there's no way you were influenced by li'l ol' me, our numbers are similar in a bunch of ways. Almost identical when it comes down to iPad ASP and potential iPad mini-to-iPad mix. More bullish on Mac ASP, less bullish on iPhone numbers though I do think they'll come in over 50M. I upped my Mac numbers yesterday and have had iPhone numbers there for quite some time. Moved GMs up quite a bit, that's the one that scares me. Based on recent results/guidance, they could be much closer to 38.5-39. Wishful thinking I suppose. Who knows at this point.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2013 21:09:57 GMT -8
Maybe we should start thinking blah-case scenarios just to mix things up a bit.
Even though technically, my estimate is already kind of a blah-case scenario, except for GM.
When listening through the Q4 2012 CC again recently, I heard Oppenheimer mention smartphone rate of growth of 45% YOY (for the entire year). I don't think that rate will start tapering off substantially for this quarter, since it's the holiday quarter. And I'm already "just meeting" that rate of growth (normalized) for Q1. So the most obvious places I can think of to apply heavy scrutiny are GM and iPads.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 15, 2013 21:14:31 GMT -8
As self-appointed mod of this topic MB - don't stir the...pot. (get it now, chas) Clever Mav, very clever. If that does not make the light bulb go off for Chas I do not know what will. LOL
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Post by Rupert on Jan 15, 2013 21:18:37 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2013 21:19:07 GMT -8
It Just Worked.(tm) deagol speaks up! Awesome. Thanks for the heads-up, Rupert!
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