Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2016 12:53:09 GMT -8
woohooooo didn't guess too shabbily this quarter woohoooooo
until next quarter AFB friends LOL
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jul 26, 2016 12:55:13 GMT -8
Even at $595 for a ASP Apple is the envy of all electronics companies. iPad growth as well .... iPhone 7 on the horizon and looks like the SE is a big hit.
Good day.
Cheers to the longs ........
If you shorted .... I hope you lose your house and sleep on the street tonight. : ) .... just kidding ... actually I'm DEAD SERIOUS.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jul 26, 2016 12:58:56 GMT -8
I had a short position via options but still net long. Happy to lose the insurance money, it was the smart move.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 26, 2016 13:02:28 GMT -8
Am I reading this rightAAPL up $5.26 in after hours???
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Jul 26, 2016 13:04:38 GMT -8
... If you shorted .... I hope you lose your house and sleep on the street tonight. : ) .... just kidding ... actually I'm DEAD SERIOUS. LOL Seriously! I could punch the hell out of an AAPL bear if one were to annoy me. It's about time we get to shine, at least a little.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 26, 2016 13:04:50 GMT -8
Good numbers. Still in cash.
Lots of events between now and Oct to bring us back to 95.
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Jul 26, 2016 13:08:30 GMT -8
Has anyone gotten hold of the cash numbers? 250 bln?
|
|
crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
|
Post by crispin on Jul 26, 2016 13:10:51 GMT -8
I'll be more than pleased if this ER helps to temper the relentless negativity on the board - it's been one long pity party recently. Here's to happier times ahead...
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Jul 26, 2016 13:13:10 GMT -8
Tim's comment about services is very encouraging. He said services alone will be worth enough to be a Fortune 100 company by next year.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jul 26, 2016 13:18:14 GMT -8
Good numbers. Still in cash. Lots of events between now and Oct to bring us back to 95. Is the sky ever blue in your world, sponge?
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jul 26, 2016 13:19:39 GMT -8
Good numbers. Still in cash. Lots of events between now and Oct to bring us back to 95. Is the sky ever blue in your world, sponge? Was just about to post ..... Hey Sponge can you at least give us a DAY to gloat ? We've had the crap kicked out of us for the last two years .......
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 26, 2016 13:27:04 GMT -8
Is the sky ever blue in your world, sponge? Was just about to post ..... Hey Sponge can you at least give us a DAY to gloat ? We've had the crap kicked out of us for the last two years ....... Hey we are up 7%. A good sign we could see 115+ by Dec. When we make wild 7% moves we set up for opposite moves. It is a traders dream coming true. Very pleased with the numbers. It bodes well for strong iPhone and Apple Watch sales comes Dec.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jul 26, 2016 13:54:43 GMT -8
Was just about to post ..... Hey Sponge can you at least give us a DAY to gloat ? We've had the crap kicked out of us for the last two years ....... When we make wild 7% moves we set up for opposite moves.It is a traders dream come true. You just can't help yourself can you, sponge?
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jul 26, 2016 14:03:45 GMT -8
Maybe CNBC can get Collin Gillis back on today - Although Ross Gerber might be his equal in cluelessness... Collin Gillis ALWAYS doubles down and has been wrong for AT LEAST 8 YEARS if not more! He said if he hadn't recommended to sell it before earnings he would really be saying sell now. I couldn't even listen to the guy because I spit up my coffee when I saw his hair. He dyed it. My husband walked in and said, "WTF happened to him?" and I said - it's the hair...I can't even...
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,635
|
Post by 4aapl on Jul 26, 2016 14:19:39 GMT -8
Maybe today's the day WS realizes Apple is not on its deathbed. Is that ever going to happen? I first bought shares in 1998, so missed the timeframe before then. But Apple has always been the underdog, on it's deathbed. Sure, they now have $231B (Raj) and the highest market cap. But according to WS, that just means they are the huge ship that is slow to turn, with no more innovation, and will be eaten up by a tiny startup any day. I think we just need to think of Apple as the big XOM behemoth. Even if an electric car that competed favorably with Tesla came out tomorrow, along with a Netflix killer, and a few other things, I'm not sure I ever expect AAPL's P/E to get over 15-16 again. OTOH, if they keep raising the dividend and earning more money, there's got to be a floor somewhere, like 10-12. So if earnings increase 10% per year in the long run, that should keep the stock gaining 10% in the long term. I'd like to see an upward correction in the next 6-12 months if they can get earnings advancing again, preferably to 130-140 but more likely 120-125. It would be a good start. I'll be happy to be surprised to the upside. I'm not holding my breathe for it, but I guess I am holding my stock for it, so that underlying hope is still there. OTOH, the last 20 years has made me feel Apple will always be seen on it's deathbed by some. The best we can expect is for fewer to think that, though it's been a long time since I've read anything claiming Apple is beleaguered, so we're finally around that corner. Nice to see some positiveness in AH. Normally it takes the stock 2-3 days to calm down and show the value the market really puts it at. I'll be happy if we close the month at close to $110, and if that happens I can see $125 around the iPhone announcement as a possibility. That sure would be thinking different.
|
|
|
Post by mrentropy on Jul 26, 2016 14:29:29 GMT -8
woohooooo didn't guess too shabbily this quarter woohoooooo until next quarter AFB friends LOL Nice job Mav!
|
|
|
Post by mace on Jul 26, 2016 15:08:58 GMT -8
Good numbers. Still in cash. Lots of events between now and Oct to bring us back to 95. Think bullish act bearish?
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 26, 2016 16:18:24 GMT -8
Good numbers. Still in cash. Lots of events between now and Oct to bring us back to 95. Think bullish act bearish? Not at all. Just being patient about seeing a possible low for the quarter that will have little to do with Apple. However be ready for crazy moves in either direction. What will happen if Apple only reports 10 million iPhones in first weekend? Or polls show Trump beating Hilarry in Oct? Will jump back in when the dust settles.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
|
Post by chinacat on Jul 26, 2016 16:19:11 GMT -8
...Their "no product before its time" approach is obviously stressful for anyone with a shorter investment horizon, but I really don't see them changing their approach... From 2012 (peak $93) to now (about $97) is about four years, is shorter than since 1997 but for all purposes and intents is sufficiently long. My expectation is that the shrewd traders who post here took their gains at $130 and are now considering whether today's results should be considered a wake-up call to get back in. BWDIK, I'm just a long.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jul 26, 2016 16:39:42 GMT -8
And it begins...
Walt Piecyk at BTIG: Increases PT from $115 to $124 Leaving FQ4 and 2017 estimates unchanged
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Jul 26, 2016 17:22:14 GMT -8
cheers to the longs, long some calls into ER, sentiment on ER could not have been WORSE. AAPL looks primed to squeeze here in the short term barring some catastrophic FOMC reaction (does not seem likely) hold 104 and a visit to the 109 level seems likely before a lot of resistance starts to act as a headwind. Move to 109 could be pretty quick. If AAPL is worth anything - the backtest visit back to 104, should hold...we should vanquish this downtrend that has held us in place for the better part of a year. I dont think aapl is breaking back to 120 anytime really soon but we should carve out a new trading range is my WAG... new.tradingview.com/x/GI15nrPo/new.tradingview.com/x/t5XfMsnI/
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 26, 2016 17:49:19 GMT -8
cheers to the longs, long some calls into ER, sentiment on ER could not have been WORSE. AAPL looks primed to squeeze here in the short term barring some catastrophic FOMC reaction (does not seem likely) hold 104 and a visit to the 109 level seems likely before a lot of resistance starts to act as a headwind. Move to 109 could be pretty quick. If AAPL is worth anything - the backtest visit back to 104, should hold...we should vanquish this downtrend that has held us in place for the better part of a year. I dont think aapl is breaking back to 120 anytime really soon but we should carve out a new trading range is my WAG... new.tradingview.com/x/GI15nrPo/new.tradingview.com/x/t5XfMsnI/Agree with overall sentiment. Not sure holding 104 is that critical. WS will need clear evidence that we are out of the woods before we see the 200MA start to flatten and the stock move above it. So a nice move to 109 seems about right before we correct. We may even get lucky and hit 113. We will over react. In listening to CC and reading the transcript, I think the iPhone sales will surprise many in the Dec. quarter. Apple could pull some surprises that can spur further upgrades or switchers. Like a price reduction on the 7. Margins gave that hint. The 5SE is a monster hit. TC really emphasized several times how bullish he was on the iPhone. By the way I came in 1st out of 1027 analysts with eps estimates on Estimize. May come in first with Ped3.0 as well. I thought I was too bullish. ( just wanted to pint that out for the my haters on this site). Waiting for the attacks now to increase. My guidance was very low, so guidance numbers Reported today are very bullish.
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Jul 26, 2016 18:07:09 GMT -8
Maybe today's the day WS realizes Apple is not on its deathbed. Is that ever going to happen? I first bought shares in 1998, so missed the timeframe before then. But Apple has always been the underdog, on it's deathbed. Sure, they now have $231B (Raj) and the highest market cap. But according to WS, that just means they are the huge ship that is slow to turn, with no more innovation, and will be eaten up by a tiny startup any day. I think we just need to think of Apple as the big XOM behemoth. Even if an electric car that competed favorably with Tesla came out tomorrow, along with a Netflix killer, and a few other things, I'm not sure I ever expect AAPL's P/E to get over 15-16 again. OTOH, if they keep raising the dividend and earning more money, there's got to be a floor somewhere, like 10-12. So if earnings increase 10% per year in the long run, that should keep the stock gaining 10% in the long term. I'd like to see an upward correction in the next 6-12 months if they can get earnings advancing again, preferably to 130-140 but more likely 120-125. It would be a good start. I'll be happy to be surprised to the upside. I'm not holding my breathe for it, but I guess I am holding my stock for it, so that underlying hope is still there. OTOH, the last 20 years has made me feel Apple will always be seen on it's deathbed by some. The best we can expect is for fewer to think that, though it's been a long time since I've read anything claiming Apple is beleaguered, so we're finally around that corner. Nice to see some positiveness in AH. Normally it takes the stock 2-3 days to calm down and show the value the market really puts it at. I'll be happy if we close the month at close to $110, and if that happens I can see $125 around the iPhone announcement as a possibility. That sure would be thinking different. It was never on its death bed. But what was happening/is happening is a fundamental shift of a company that simply is too large to grow like it did in the past without that "it product" that catches lightning in the bottle Across all lines of business basically (except I think ipads beat) we are showing a y/y flat at best decline at worse. its just a fact. The fundamentals aren't fair relative to other companies but this company is transforming from a growth to a utility stock. Its not dead. Its just becoming...a power company...a phone company...low PE low growth decent dividend...its in growth purgatory. Growth is what drives the kind of moves that see a stock double/triple/quad in a few years time frame.
|
|
|
Post by osx10 on Jul 26, 2016 18:14:48 GMT -8
Hey Sponge, saw that you might be the winner on PED's competition.
As much as we sometimes love and hate you (all at the same time) over your WAG's.... winning PED's contest 2x in a year is impressive, congrats!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2016 18:50:51 GMT -8
Since I don't have any $10/month subscriptions, I'll have to see how I did vs. other estimates (for entertainment purposes only) later.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,635
|
Post by 4aapl on Jul 26, 2016 21:03:25 GMT -8
Is that ever going to happen? I first bought shares in 1998, so missed the timeframe before then. But Apple has always been the underdog, on it's deathbed. Sure, they now have $231B (Raj) and the highest market cap. But according to WS, that just means they are the huge ship that is slow to turn, with no more innovation, and will be eaten up by a tiny startup any day. I think we just need to think of Apple as the big XOM behemoth. Even if an electric car that competed favorably with Tesla came out tomorrow, along with a Netflix killer, and a few other things, I'm not sure I ever expect AAPL's P/E to get over 15-16 again. OTOH, if they keep raising the dividend and earning more money, there's got to be a floor somewhere, like 10-12. So if earnings increase 10% per year in the long run, that should keep the stock gaining 10% in the long term. I'd like to see an upward correction in the next 6-12 months if they can get earnings advancing again, preferably to 130-140 but more likely 120-125. It would be a good start. I'll be happy to be surprised to the upside. I'm not holding my breathe for it, but I guess I am holding my stock for it, so that underlying hope is still there. OTOH, the last 20 years has made me feel Apple will always be seen on it's deathbed by some. The best we can expect is for fewer to think that, though it's been a long time since I've read anything claiming Apple is beleaguered, so we're finally around that corner. Nice to see some positiveness in AH. Normally it takes the stock 2-3 days to calm down and show the value the market really puts it at. I'll be happy if we close the month at close to $110, and if that happens I can see $125 around the iPhone announcement as a possibility. That sure would be thinking different. It was never on its death bed. But what was happening/is happening is a fundamental shift of a company that simply is too large to grow like it did in the past without that "it product" that catches lightning in the bottle Across all lines of business basically (except I think ipads beat) we are showing a y/y flat at best decline at worse. its just a fact. The fundamentals aren't fair relative to other companies but this company is transforming from a growth to a utility stock. Its not dead. Its just becoming...a power company...a phone company...low PE low growth decent dividend...its in growth purgatory. Growth is what drives the kind of moves that see a stock double/triple/quad in a few years time frame. Yes, mostly Apple was close to some serious capital problems in the spring/summer of '97, that they made it through with the $300M investment from MS, per the book "Steve Jobs". Whether they would have found another way, SJ said in the book that things were grim. But that's neither here nor there. The biggie is what you emphasized, that Apple has changed, mainly by growing so big. But slowing growth, which includes some flatlining and downtrends from time to time just like others that have been here (XOM, CAT, etc), IMO doesn't deserve the kind of pessimistic outlook that many continue to give it. OTOH, I think no matter what Apple does, there's always going to be naysayers, mainly from the Ford vs Chevy crowd, but also from the potshot crowd. There's just not much downside to them to calling it wrong, whereas they get the clickbait, and if they are actually right they can say that they called it. Such is life. Some take pride in being a pill. One in our town was just fined $225k for legal fees for frivolous lawsuits over the past 5 years. Rumor has it he was paid to leave the last place he lived after acting likewise, all after being disbarred previously. Sadly, I doubt it's enough to stop him from behaving that way. www.sierrasun.com/news/22961851-113/judge-entitled-obsessed-aaron-katz-must-pay-225kWith Apple, we should see growth, but not the kind we had before unless a car takes off and really pumps up the revenue though likely wouldn't pump up income at the same rate. Even so, the stories then would likely complain of Apple spreading itself too thin, or getting out of it's core compentcy, or not having the focus/background/pipeline/dealers/whatever. OTOH, if you expect that, then it's not really a surprise, or even a disappointment. It's just the status quo. But even if AAPL stays in the P/E range of 11-13 for the next decade, with occasional trips to 10 or 15, finding a supportive range makes the stock price tied much more to earnings. And that, as long as Apple manages to grow them for a while as they've mostly done, is a good thing. Slow and steady doesn't always win the race, but it doesn't tend to post a DNF either.
|
|