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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 11, 2012 14:25:40 GMT -8
Are we expecting to visit the May lows before we move higher, iPad, Mav, Mark, Bueller?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 11, 2012 14:39:08 GMT -8
Are we expecting to visit the May lows before we move higher, iPad, Mav, Mark, Bueller? It appeared last week that that was the target. Not so sure now. We need a follow through day. What we do not want to see is Friday's low taken out. That would be real bad.
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Post by alice on Nov 11, 2012 15:10:24 GMT -8
What is the SMA-50 weekly? And why by Friday?
What is the target low for the third category?
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 11, 2012 15:18:56 GMT -8
I'm in Technicals Remedial Pre-100 Level Class. Don't ask me!
All I think I know is that AAPL is contending with some weighty history (which isn't prelude, but you can't ignore it either) when it fell below the SMA-50 and didn't recover ever since 2006.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 11, 2012 17:28:47 GMT -8
Does EW care about the SMA-50 weekly? Or, could some variations of it take it into account? Assuming that it does, then a failure of the SMA-50 weekly (which has never proven short-term good for AAPL since as far back as June 2006) means scenario 2 or 3. EW doesn't care about it, but TA does...and areas of confluence (EW, TA, FA) are particularly noteworthy.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 11, 2012 17:31:34 GMT -8
Just a generic question for the EW folks in the know... In my readings about EW I keep coming across the mention of Triangles forming once a trend has topped out or bottomed out. (Basically signaling a reversal.) If 705 was the top and the end of Wave 5, is there a corresponding triangle that formed that indicates the reversal? I'm new at this, so if this is an obvious misunderstanding on my part please let me know. Thanks Triangles are tricky because there are different kinds, some signalling continuation and some reversal. I've been trying to make another cheat sheet for corrective waves:
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 11, 2012 17:46:49 GMT -8
Blah! I didn't notice the ad/pics... Unfortunately, the best chart resolution comes with those ads. If I use imgur.com, no ads, but the resolution isn't as good either.
Just click on my chart. Then click the chart again. Should fill your screen with CHART.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 11, 2012 17:48:43 GMT -8
Are we expecting to visit the May lows before we move higher, iPad, Mav, Mark, Bueller? We don't have expectations. We're in watch & see mode. We may have bottomed...we may not have bottomed. On this one, we likely won't know until it's in the rear view mirror. Let's take it level by level. On the upside, we need to get our assets above the weekly SMA-50 ASAP. On the downside, we need to stay above Friday's LOD.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 11, 2012 17:53:07 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 11, 2012 18:42:53 GMT -8
I think the weekly chart is why Oppenheimer made its call.
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Post by lobo on Nov 12, 2012 5:34:38 GMT -8
When looking for the tell tell signs of a triangle... What is the most appropriate time scale on a chart to use?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 12, 2012 9:37:00 GMT -8
When looking for the tell tell signs of a triangle... What is the most appropriate time scale on a chart to use? Try 1D. This is a triangle here.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 12, 2012 11:49:53 GMT -8
Blah! I didn't notice the ad/pics... Unfortunately, the best chart resolution comes with those ads. If I use imgur.com, no ads, but the resolution isn't as good either. Just click on my chart. Then click the chart again. Should fill your screen with CHART. No offence but... recently, the best thing about the charts has been the ads at the bottom!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 12, 2012 14:34:04 GMT -8
Poor M...lamenting the recently closed chapter on bachelorhood, I see.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 13, 2012 15:25:06 GMT -8
At this point, there are about three categories of scenarios with variations: 1) This is a Wave 4-down, and Wave 5-up is coming (bullish); 2) This is a Wave 2-down, and Wave 3-up is coming (immediate-term bearish, then uber-bullish); 3) This is A-down of a big ABC correction following Waves I through V that topped at 705, and B-up is coming (bearish to uber-bearish) Avi thinks #1 is most probable and #2 is least probable. His count looks like this: AAPL-EW DAILY CHART: We've hit the target zone. The questions that remain, of course: are we done yet??? How much longer??? Then what??? And we STILL can't answer those yet.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 13, 2012 15:34:42 GMT -8
This is one more count with which I've been toying. At this point, Avi doesn't find it as probable as the count in the previous post. But Mace is the one who first planted this seed in my mind with the decline to 522-ish. I think IF we exceed 50% retrace -- and depending on just how much -- this may gain more probability. Despite the short-term Armageddon, it's UBER-BULLISH for the next upwave, making 363 to 644 look like chopped liver.
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Post by rickag on Nov 14, 2012 8:05:51 GMT -8
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Post by lobo on Nov 14, 2012 17:55:21 GMT -8
I was just looking at the second chart, the situation that might occur if we exceed a 50% retrace. In general terms would it be fair to say that at the bottom that would be the end of a wave "C" correction? And if that is the case then the beginning of a Wave 1 Impulse Wave could be about to occur?
Also when I look at the first chart I notice that the length of the "C" Wave is currently 1.382. From my reading I understand that the "C" Wave often reaches or exceeds 1.618 X the "A" Wave. Does that imply that if we reach the 1.618 length on the "C" Wave that we will be at or below 508? If I am misunderstanding this data please let me know. Thanks
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 18:14:52 GMT -8
Lobo, you're asking the right questions. Mainly, it depends on whether this corrective wave is a Wave 2 or a Wave 4. Both of these will break into ABC. So we're in C of something or other. And whatever this is, when it ends, we will have some kind of 1,2,3,4,5 upward impulse sequence -- components of either a Wave 3 or a Wave 5.
Wave 4 really shouldn't retrace more than 50%, and even that is more than the typical 38.2%. Wave 2 can retrace up to 100%, though the norm is 61.8%.
So, we wait and see... This is the hardest part of EW...always having multiple scenarios and "process of elimination" figuring out which one still works as you go along...
Our buddy Mace would say he didn't bother with corrective waves because they were too tough and messy to figure out -- now, I know what he means. Comparatively, impulse waves are much easier... easier to figure out potential targets.
(And yes, you are reading the data correctly.)
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 19:41:14 GMT -8
Ahhhh, so it wasn't just me thinking that the wave we are in could be either a 2 or 4. They both suck.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 14:28:13 GMT -8
Here's this one again... AAPL Daily: (fun with fractals)
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 15, 2012 14:36:44 GMT -8
Wow. Looks like a larger-scale version of the first /\/\ .
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 15:12:12 GMT -8
Precisely. That's part of EW theory...fractals = mini me.
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Post by rickag on Nov 15, 2012 16:52:38 GMT -8
Precisely. That's part of EW theory...fractals = mini me. lovemyipad, thank you for posting this, gives me hope the last leg up will repeat. May the fractal gods smile on us. I need help I'm turning blue and my head hurts.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 17:29:25 GMT -8
(...) I'm turning blue and my head hurts. +1
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 17:36:05 GMT -8
I got a gold star on my AAPL-EW homework from Avi!! I have an Avi-approved count that, if validated -- fingers crossed -- supports a bottom here. That > 50% retrace in the previous chart (as Mark too noted) wasn't sitting well with me, so I dug up one of my old counts. Originally, for EW purposes, I thought 680-ish was the top of the impulsive portion because that's where the divergences started showing up. Now, if we drop below 522, I'm going to have problems again with this count, too. But for now: AAPL-EW Daily Chart:
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 15, 2012 17:58:13 GMT -8
Lovey, I admire you so much. Everything looks like shit and you still have optimism. I have given up. if AAPL does not get back above 700 by April I am officially fubr.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 15, 2012 19:26:54 GMT -8
Here's this one again... AAPL Daily: (fun with fractals) This chart is amazing, iPad. Thanks!! I'm keeping it in a little section of my desktop for good luck!! Fingers crossed (even though, as everyone knows, there are no fingers crossed in trading)! HA! :-)
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Post by Big Al on Nov 16, 2012 1:39:56 GMT -8
I got a gold star on my AAPL-EW homework from Avi!! I have an Avi-approved count that, if validated -- fingers crossed -- supports a bottom here. That > 50% retrace in the previous chart (as Mark too noted) wasn't sitting well with me, so I dug up one of my old counts. Originally, for EW purposes, I thought 680-ish was the top of the impulsive portion because that's where the divergences started showing up. Now, if we drop below 522, I'm going to have problems again with this count, too. But for now: AAPL-EW Daily Chart: Would a retrace to $484.62 mess with your EW analysis or is it still a viable option?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 16, 2012 5:17:36 GMT -8
Al, that would send me back to the drawing board.
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