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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 14:16:40 GMT -8
All I got out of that was, we might be heading below 2009 lows, WTF?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 14:27:31 GMT -8
All I got out of that was, we might be heading below 2009 lows, WTF? 1500 to 1630 FIRST!!!
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 14:35:47 GMT -8
Still, WTF?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 14:39:42 GMT -8
LOL! He means, before any bear market starts (as many have been anticipating due to xyz), he sees ATHs. He's bullish to uber-bullish for at least the first half of 2013. So eventually, we'll have another bear market. No idea when. But I know it can't start without lower highs...so let's wait until we see that to worry about it.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 14:43:57 GMT -8
LOL! He means, before any bear market starts (as many have been anticipating due to xyz), he sees ATHs. He's bullish for at least the first half of 2013. I am so glad you are back. I have been suffering from withdrawals.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 14:45:32 GMT -8
Aw, thanks!!!!
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Post by kloot on Dec 3, 2012 19:59:27 GMT -8
Aw, thanks!!!! yes, welcome back. sorry I missed you while you were in the CHI!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 17:42:49 GMT -8
AAPL-EW INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 17:43:13 GMT -8
Aw, thanks!!!! yes, welcome back. sorry I missed you while you were in the CHI! Kloot, next time!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 19:05:20 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 4, 2012 20:07:48 GMT -8
I like that guy, Ms. IPad. Is he accurate?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 20:14:53 GMT -8
I like that guy, Ms. IPad. Is he accurate? IMHO, he is very, very good. Not always correct on direction, but who the heck is? He gets a thumbs-up from me. His analytics -- target calculations -- are excellent.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 21:15:03 GMT -8
Heck, right now I would not sweat 563 if the next move was up nicely like he portrays with his arrow.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 21:28:14 GMT -8
Heck, right now I would not sweat 563 if the next move was up nicely like he portrays with his arrow. There's so much confluence there between MAs and Fibs. IF we see that area, I'd expect it to hold until proven otherwise.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 5, 2012 3:28:04 GMT -8
Well we hit the low ~569 in the PM today. Not sure if we'll see it in regular hours. If we are going up to ~613, then chances are we see something like 621, which is the weekly middle Bollinger. I've had that as a possible upside target for a long time, but have been more focused on a daily lower Bollinger retest. However, if we hit that weekly middle Bollinger, then we could see the weekly lower Bollinger once more instead of the daily one for the time being. That would sort of fit as more often than not, patterns tend to play out in the longer timeframes first, then the patterns in progressively shorter timeframes get fixed/completed. That's how you can get a long term pattern finish, then the next move doesn't seem to happen immediately as all the shorter timeframe "fluff" is playing out. And, yes, like EW, I also have alternate scenarios.
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Post by Big Al on Dec 5, 2012 4:14:24 GMT -8
I like that guy, Ms. IPad. Is he accurate? IMHO, he is very, very good. Not always correct on direction, but who the heck is? He gets a thumbs-up from me. His analytics -- target calculations -- are excellent. Do I see this correclty that he has a similar wave count as Avi? By the way, did Avi come out and say where the bottom might be? He indicated that he would do that once we would find a short-term top ($594,59).
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 8:55:58 GMT -8
Another one bites the dust. I am reminded of Avi saying he does not look at the news. I think news trumps all TA.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 5, 2012 9:40:45 GMT -8
Another one bites the dust. I am reminded of Avi saying he does not look at the news. I think news trumps all TA. TA isn't ever going to predict the goal posts being moved.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 9:59:18 GMT -8
EW assumes "something" will trigger the move -- if projecting down, expect bad news...if projecting up, expect good news. Assumes the move is going to happen anyway, and some news will arrive on cue to deliver the catalyst, speculation, rationale, or rumor du jour.
But as Birdie says, EW counts are constantly revised. Reminds me of a quote about writing a novel: A novel isn't written; it's rewritten. Multiple drafts. Par for the course.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 10:00:53 GMT -8
IMHO, he is very, very good. Not always correct on direction, but who the heck is? He gets a thumbs-up from me. His analytics -- target calculations -- are excellent. Do I see this correclty that he has a similar wave count as Avi? By the way, did Avi come out and say where the bottom might be? He indicated that he would do that once we would find a short-term top ($594,59). For bullish case, between 560-539-ish. Lower than that targets 525, then 505.
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Post by fariba on Dec 5, 2012 16:39:37 GMT -8
ipad, i read avi's top target..he had 589 and said initially if it is higher( 594) , then the target of the wave 4 will be higher as well...so even though 505, 500 and even( on the weekly long term chart( 2008-2009 to now) 470-480, the more likely low target will be 517-530ish... the bottoming tail with volume reversal is in there 525ish. this time avi says that the rally will take out the previous high( 594) and go the new high's...i think 620-630ish.so this is candlestick and elliot combined. now, most people work like me and can't nano trade, so hold for the rally up. it is interesting that aapl disconnected from the market. aapl did 37 down in one day...i thought it will do the deed slower. this means they are in a hurry to rally it back up before the 200/50 cross on friday every one talks about...because technical traders may put selling pressure there. so the bottom in my opinion is tommorow. lately aapl has been going up fri-mon. so a friday rally is a possibility. now the only thing that can mess this up is a fiscal cliff fiasco disaster scenario( not this back and forth nonsense). so lets see what happens tomorrow. i am hoping for a gap down and flush..then a reversal would be lovely. weekly options can help as people may load on puts for the death cross.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 17:27:52 GMT -8
The cross can't be stopped. It is a matter of how deep it will go.
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Post by fariba on Dec 5, 2012 17:39:14 GMT -8
don't be sad. it will work out. this time though, must pay attention to the tops as 2013 is probably not a good year for the market. we have to pay the piper at some time with our fiscal mess.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 17:51:17 GMT -8
ipad, i read avi's top target..he had 589 and said initially if it is higher( 594) , then the target of the wave 4 will be higher as well...so even though 505, 500 and even( on the weekly long term chart( 2008-2009 to now) 470-480, the more likely low target will be 517-530ish... the bottoming tail with volume reversal is in there 525ish. this time avi says that the rally will take out the previous high( 594) and go the new high's...i think 620-630ish.so this is candlestick and elliot combined. now, most people work like me and can't nano trade, so hold for the rally up. it is interesting that aapl disconnected from the market. aapl did 37 down in one day...i thought it will do the deed slower. this means they are in a hurry to rally it back up before the 200/50 cross on friday every one talks about...because technical traders may put selling pressure there. so the bottom in my opinion is tommorow. lately aapl has been going up fri-mon. so a friday rally is a possibility. now the only thing that can mess this up is a fiscal cliff fiasco disaster scenario( not this back and forth nonsense). so lets see what happens tomorrow. i am hoping for a gap down and flush..then a reversal would be lovely. weekly options can help as people may load on puts for the death cross. GREAT post!! Welcome!!
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 19:36:09 GMT -8
Rick, there was a lot worse than that in there. Geeeez. 473, yikes. My take is that he does not think the selling is over. WTF? I will be curious to hear Avi's next thought. I am sure he will not say anything until he feels that AAPL has bottomed. Going back to this article, we have more down coming. Honestly we need another capitulation day like 2 weeks ago. Our stock is broken. I have no faith in the 76% fib holding which means 505 or lower.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 20:13:50 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 5, 2012 23:06:34 GMT -8
iPad, I'll need a quick refresher on the EW roadmap at this point. Of course it's no secret here I'm merely observing EW (vs. trying to figure out technicals very slowly) but this is a great time to assess Avi's skills (as stomach-churning it could be to see this all play out).
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2012 6:46:13 GMT -8
Ping! Hit his target. Now let's see...
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Post by Big Al on Dec 6, 2012 7:08:05 GMT -8
Ping! Hit his target. Now let's see... Hopefully this is the start of the next wave up...
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 6, 2012 7:19:39 GMT -8
Ping! Hit his target. Now let's see... Now the big if. I did the trial last night and was not comforted
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