Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 8, 2012 1:20:37 GMT -8
iPad - Avi still standing by his 473 low target from a while back? Seems to me either the _new_ H&S that may have just formed *sigh* or today's nutty price action would either change the EW maths somehow (or not, I have no clue), OR the H&S would be so "self-fulfilling" that the 80 points below whatever point you might use (if I'm measuring the H&S right) would send AAPL below 473 if "triggered".
I know, EW vs. technicals, apples and oranges, but still.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 8, 2012 4:07:09 GMT -8
I know, EW vs. technicals, apples and oranges, but still. EW is technicals, just a different branch. While I don't believe in EW, I do take an interest to see what numbers those folk are coming up with just to see if it tallies with my thinking. Weeks ago I was thinking about the monthly middle BB, but kept thinking it wasn't likely. I guess sometimes you have to listen to your gut instinct. Now we have Avi talking about the possibility of 473, and that fits in with an overshoot of the monthly middle BB and on to the monthly lower STARC band. However, it is worth noting that EW does produce a set of numbers, some of which are beyond where the price will reverse. Holding out for the one furthest away is a recipe for disappointment. To my mind, 500 is a key level. Below that we will have some people panicking and others getting very greedy, either for more downside, or to load up as a value play. At those levels I believe AAPL will not just do a 'V' bottom bounce but will thrash about. This will toss a number of people off the ride in several failed attempts to rally. It happened in Jan/Feb 2008 and again in Feb/Mar 2009. If we stay above 500, then the recovery will probably be a bit quicker.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 8, 2012 16:30:56 GMT -8
Mace showed up at Breaburn : This is the bestest news I've heard in a long time!!!!!!!!!!!! *I* did not know where Mace was, and I did not know how to contact him. Please, those of you with access to Mace, tell him: Lovemyipad: 1) misses him terribly; 2) has actively been learning EW; 3) misses him terribly!!! And try to get him over here for goodness sakes, sheesh!!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 8, 2012 16:45:20 GMT -8
Post above refers to this chart: (Avi's chart with my yellow arrows) fas, I'm watching the market, so I'll be back to answer this in a lull... Please explain Avi's chart in simple English and the timeframe it relates to. Thanks. Alice, it's a 3-minute chart. Look at the yellow arrows: 1) Up to 546-555; 2) Down to 532-ish; 3) Up to 564-578. It's a hypothesis; it can be invalidated at any point: if #1 went higher; if #2 went lower; if #3 went higher... All of those could invalidate the thesis. Friday, we went lower than #2, so I'll be watching to see if it's a decisive break (not just two seconds) or a tiny overthrow. If it's a decisive break, you can see the next Fibs on the chart. Target 524, then 518, then 510... Gotta see how low it goes before making a revised plan for the next up move. It's always a work-in-progress, always being revised. IMHO, it HAS to be...because the market is dynamic, not static. It's a chess game, and while you can guess, you never know your opponent's next move until he makes it.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 9, 2012 6:56:46 GMT -8
Please explain Avi's chart in simple English and the timeframe it relates to. Thanks. Alice, it's a 3-minute chart. Look at the yellow arrows: 1) Up to 546-555; 2) Down to 532-ish; 3) Up to 564-578. It's a hypothesis; it can be invalidated at any point: if #1 went higher; if #2 went lower; if #3 went higher... All of those could invalidate the thesis. Friday, we went lower than #2, so I'll be watching to see if it's a decisive break (not just two seconds) or a tiny overthrow. If it's a decisive break, you can see the next Fibs on the chart. Target 524, then 518, then 510... Gotta see how low it goes before making a revised plan for the next up move. It's always a work-in-progress, always being revised. IMHO, it HAS to be...because the market is dynamic, not static. It's a chess game, and while you can guess, you never know your opponent's next move until he makes it. iPad I know you said the chart is dynamic but, once the end of b is reached (I.e we reverse) is the number at c (+570) fairly static until we get there? I know there will/may be diversions on the way but is the number itself (+579) static (until we break it that is)? Also in the basic wave pattern we are on wave 2? Thanks for you patience.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 7:00:30 GMT -8
fas, I'm working on the answer to your earlier Q re: "alt" count, and I'll reply to this last one in that...
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 7:36:03 GMT -8
While I'm working on that, some initial notes... Some find little/no value in TA because while it objectively tells what has happened in the past and what is happening in the present, it cannot definitively predict the future. Similarly, EW is NOT for everyone. Two trading buddies I respect a ton, Birdie (you know) and Lion (from Skype group) have perfectly valid reasons why EW doesn't work for them. Lion says he'll learn EW when someone can definitively identify the current wave. Birdie, too, has posted about the oft-revised nature of counting waves, among other things. (Note: Most technical traders do NOT subscribe to EW. And not all EW practitioners know their TA.) Me, I have no such expectations, thus the value I derive from TA and EW isn't measured by those yardsticks. I view the market as a chess game, and I have always loved chess since I first learned to play in the 4th grade. I'm used to ambiguity and constant revisions of outlook as the "norm." TA and EW help me to better strategize my game plan. At every turn, my opponent *might* do x, y, or z...in which case, I will do a, b, or c. I like having a framework that helps me "somewhat" organize the 10,000 potential outcomes at any given moment. ;D EW isn't a train schedule with a definitive itinerary complete with stops, dates and times. It's more like "pieces" of an incomplete treasure map. You try to assemble them as best you can with the clues you have, check and re-check your compass as new info comes in, (is North still North??), and when necessary, go back to the drawing board and reconfigure your map. Remember, if the answers were easy and effortless, everyone would be rich.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 9, 2012 7:58:52 GMT -8
While I'm working on that, some initial notes... Remember, if the answers were easy and effortless, everyone would be rich. I agree. I know there is no panacea. Also because the market is dynamic with everything from an individual qtr of an individual stock to macro issues like the FC or Europe (remember Europe issues and its effect?) IMHO there is no one system that is always repeatable and always accurate. Some times systems may work for a period in time. Right now by all appearances FIBs and EW seem to be more right than wrong. Interestingly how often we bounce off of fib level and then I remember that many have these algorithms built into the buy/sell triggers so it may be a self-fulfilling system. Anyway, always open to learn and look forward to learning more.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 10:14:20 GMT -8
At this point, there are about three categories of scenarios with variations: 1) This is a Wave 4-down, and Wave 5-up is coming (bullish); 2) This is a Wave 2-down, and Wave 3-up is coming (immediate-term bearish, then uber-bullish); 3) This is A-down of a big ABC correction following Waves I through V that topped at 705, and B-up is coming (bearish to uber-bearish) Avi thinks #1 is most probable and #2 is least probable. His count looks like this: AAPL-EW DAILY CHART: We've hit the target zone. The questions that remain, of course: are we done yet??? How much longer??? Then what??? And we STILL can't answer those yet. NOTHING has changed since my above post. We still have the same three categories of scenarios with variations. 1) The drop from 705 was a Wave IV: a) Completed at 505.75; now in Wave V; b) On-going; target 485-530. 2) The drop from 705 was a Wave II: (uber-bullish) a) Completed at 505.75; now in Wave III; b) On-going; target 485-530. 3) The drop from 705 was a Wave A: (uber-bearish) a) Completed at 505.75; now in Wave B; b) On-going; target 485-530.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 10:17:17 GMT -8
Since the Wave IV scenarios are Avi's preferred counts right now, let's just go with those to narrow 1.0 zillion possibilities to 0.5 zillion. Scenario A: Wave IV completed at 505.75: Scenario B: Wave IV on-going:
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 10:21:34 GMT -8
fas, where I like separate charts for alternate counts, Avi will put all his alternates on the same chart, usually using different colors. The ones you questioned require zooming out beyond the 3-min intraday chart (of Avi's that I posted) in order to see how his "alt" counts fit into the bigger timeframe. If you see my previous post, those two charts represent the bigger timeframe. IF we are in Scenario A (Wave IV completed at 505.75), THEN we're currently in Wave V. That Wave V will break into 1,2,3,4,5: 1: up 2: down (no lower than origin of 1, usually 61.8% retrace of 1) 3: up 4: down (no lower than top of 1, usually 38.2% retrace of 3) 5: up To simplify, let's say V-1 was 505.75 to 594.59, and now, we're in V-2. Wave 2 can't go past the origin of Wave 1 (505.75). Doing so invalidates this count. Once Wave 2 completes, we can make projections for Wave 3. This is the basic framework of an impulsive wave:
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Post by appledoc on Dec 9, 2012 10:36:58 GMT -8
iPad, thanks for the last few posts. I don't want to say this is simple, but I can SEE it. I just need a little bit of time.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 10:39:55 GMT -8
iPad, thanks for the last few posts. I don't want to say this is simple, but I can SEE it. I just need a little bit of time. appledoc, I suspect your mind is going to grasp these concepts a whole lot easier than most. I've had to work at it quite a bit -- it wasn't/isn't "natural" for my brain. But I try to substitute diligent study for natural talent, and bit by bit, I get better at it.
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 13:47:37 GMT -8
EW ain't spectrometer reading. (Which yes I know, is but one part of organic chem.) That said, if you think you can get EW, awesome. Seems like Fibonacci on an active volcano's worth of illegal substances to me.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 9, 2012 16:36:08 GMT -8
iPad, thanks for the last few posts. I don't want to say this is simple, but I can SEE it. I just need a little bit of time. appledoc, I suspect your mind is going to grasp these concepts a whole lot easier than most. I've had to work at it quite a bit -- it wasn't/isn't "natural" for my brain. But I try to substitute diligent study for natural talent, and bit by bit, I get better at it. IPad Thanks very much for all your work. I am currently (like tonight) not in a position (I'm out) where I can have a good read but will tomorrow early. Thanks again, very much.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 16:37:17 GMT -8
fas, I'm thrilled you're even interested, so yay, yay, yay!!!
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Post by fas550 on Dec 9, 2012 17:23:08 GMT -8
fas, I'm thrilled you're even interested, so yay, yay, yay!!! And thank you for sharing and your patience
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 9, 2012 19:20:04 GMT -8
Just a heads up. I got an alert from Avi yesterday via email that his target is 473.
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Post by bribery on Dec 9, 2012 19:31:19 GMT -8
Just a heads up. I got an alert from Avi yesterday via email that his target is 473. Thanks for sharing. That'd be lovely for those who are 100% cash.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 20:42:33 GMT -8
Just a heads up. I got an alert from Avi yesterday via email that his target is 473. IF 500 breaks...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 20:52:28 GMT -8
Makes total sense really! 500 failing decisively would be all kinds of RED ALERT.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 10, 2012 6:32:40 GMT -8
Just a heads up. I got an alert from Avi yesterday via email that his target is 473. IF 500 breaks... If 500, or if 505? I understand not much of a difference, but I need to make sure I understand the logic behind the level. Also, why was 530 the upper range of the target?
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Post by rickag on Dec 10, 2012 11:08:29 GMT -8
Just a heads up. I got an alert from Avi yesterday via email that his target is 473. IF 500 breaks... If we break $500 I will seriously consider calling my broker and immediately sell all of my non-AAPL funds in preparation to buy AAPL. It would do 2 things, protect me against if we fall off the fiscal cliff and presents an opportunity to buy AAPL at obscenely low levels. At $473 AAPL's P/E would be ~10.7, minus cash and cash equivalents it would be ~7.8. This is just nuts.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 10, 2012 11:15:22 GMT -8
Just a heads up. I got an alert from Avi yesterday via email that his target is 473. IF 500 breaks... This becomes a real issue because now I feel like people look to Avi as a "WHEN" scenario and not an "IF/THEN" -- I think Avi would want to fall into the latter but after what happened over at Bullish Cross -- everyone is seemingly trying to find a new savior. He's not. He cannot predict the future but he can mitigate losses or enhance gains thru his analysis. He would be the first to say that not everyone is right all the time. Oh well....at some point it starts to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I have already seen people start tweeting that Gundlach said months ago that AAPL will once again go back to $420. I feel like Sisyphus when I speak...I roll the boulder up the hill and have it roll back down the other side -- then up again -- then down again.....
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Post by rickag on Dec 10, 2012 11:54:19 GMT -8
This becomes a real issue because now I feel like people look to Avi as a "WHEN" scenario and not an "IF/THEN" -- I think Avi would want to fall into the latter but after what happened over at Bullish Cross -- everyone is seemingly trying to find a new savior. He's not. He cannot predict the future but he can mitigate losses or enhance gains thru his analysis. He would be the first to say that not everyone is right all the time. Oh well....at some point it starts to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I have already seen people start tweeting that Gundlach said months ago that AAPL will once again go back to $420. I feel like Sisyphus when I speak...I roll the boulder up the hill and have it roll back down the other side -- then up again -- then down again..... You're absolutely correct. But even if AAPL breaks $500 momentarily, then rises, it would still be an obscenely low entry point. The last time I was considering doing exactly this I had sold all my AAPL @ around $170 - $200. It fell to ~$77 and I began buying back in( I bought in @ ~$79, ~$120, ~$140 and ~$170). At the time some nitwit was saying AAPL would fall to below $55 and I said at $55 I would remortgage the house sell my daughters into servitude and buy AAPL with everything I could lay my hands on. At the time if AAPL did get to $55, the cash and cash equivalents was about $40/share, meaning the company by itself would only be valued at $15/share. I consider this a very similar situation. And no, I'm not saying anyone saying $473 is a nitwit, but the price point would be just too attractive not to go all in. The only thing that might stop me is my better half, she may disagree, vehemently(got to have an out for hesitation, right)
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 12:10:59 GMT -8
Phoebes, it is all out of our control. I just posted that as a heads up to keep optimism in check. I don't have any answers, the stock is broken. The capitulation (2nd) the other day should have been the end of the pain, but alas, here we are. I do not think people are flocking to Avi as the savior, I just think his last 2 calls were so good that it has gotten people's attention. Especially the last one at 592. I have always read the EW topic, it has intrigued me for years. I used to enjoy the banter between Mace and Tommo over it. I am still a trend guy and the trend is still down. Break the 518 level from last week and then the 505.75 from Nov 16th is right in front of us. To be honest I was kind of hoping it would have done it today and closed green. that would have made me feel a little more confident about AAPL. I can't bear the thought of the other side of 505. I know that sounds just like what I was saying about 572 last week. Sorry.
Point is Phoebes, nothing we say here matters, there are powers that be who could care less what we are discussing. They just do because they want to.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 12:13:21 GMT -8
I consider this a very similar situation. And no, I'm not saying anyone saying $473 is a nitwit, but the price point would be just too attractive not to go all in. The only thing that might stop me is my better half, she may disagree, vehemently(got to have an out for hesitation, right) Rick, the price point has been attractive since the 200DMA, the price action is a whole different story.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 10, 2012 12:25:35 GMT -8
Phoebes, it is all out of our control. I just posted that as a heads up to keep optimism in check. I don't have any answers, the stock is broken. The capitulation (2nd) the other day should have been the end of the pain, but alas, here we are. I do not think people are flocking to Avi as the savior, I just think his last 2 calls were so good that it has gotten people's attention. Especially the last one at 592. I have always read the EW topic, it has intrigued me for years. I used to enjoy the banter between Mace and Tommo over it. I am still a trend guy and the trend is still down. Break the 518 level from last week and then the 505.75 from Nov 16th is right in front of us. To be honest I was kind of hoping it would have done it today and closed green. that would have made me feel a little more confident about AAPL. I can't bear the thought of the other side of 505. I know that sounds just like what I was saying about 572 last week. Sorry. Point is Phoebes, nothing we say here matters, there are powers that be who could care less what we are discussing. They just do because they want to. Alas (sigh) agree with all
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 12:31:52 GMT -8
LOL, does it really kill you that much to agree with me? ;D Phoebes, I just realized what it is, you hate agreeing with a southern guy.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 10, 2012 13:05:32 GMT -8
LOL, does it really kill you that much to agree with me? ;D Phoebes, I just realized what it is, you hate agreeing with a southern guy. No, no not at all...you are all such gentlemen...very southern.. Perhaps it's because you still believe you won "the war." PS My southern girlfriend would always remind me, "My dear, we did win the war - we kept our beautiful land!"
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