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Post by Big Al on Dec 10, 2012 13:12:09 GMT -8
I consider this a very similar situation. And no, I'm not saying anyone saying $473 is a nitwit, but the price point would be just too attractive not to go all in. The only thing that might stop me is my better half, she may disagree, vehemently(got to have an out for hesitation, right) Rick, the price point has been attractive since the 200DMA, the price action is a whole different story. I thought that the 200 day would be a great entry point, but I was wrong.By now I think that the moving averages (especially the long-term ones) are not very helpful at this time. The rise between January and April and then between May and September was unusually quick, so that the MA were also rising very quickly. If you compare them on a longterm basis they should be definetly lower (e.g., the 200 day, the 50 week etc.), and so we probably might not have broken them.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 10, 2012 13:22:01 GMT -8
Kinda crappy day. I got on board for the initial pop, but it failed to follow-through. I guess I should have anticipated that. Nonetheless, I think there's a bit more upside to come before more aggressive selling comes on tap. The sellers today were either the Johnny-come-latelys, those that don't know when to give it a rest to allow some recovery for a better short entry, or those that bought near the low and wanted to bag their profits quick.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 13:30:40 GMT -8
What sell point though?
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Post by wheeles on Dec 10, 2012 13:41:23 GMT -8
For me it'll be a bit closer to my 4H trend line. Today AAPL crapped out at the 10m 200 EMA. I'm thinking somewhere in the region of the 1H 200 EMA for my long. My GTFO level is just above my entry.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 13:44:22 GMT -8
Got Numbers™?
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 14:15:54 GMT -8
I am so ready for a different wave. I am running out of surfboards.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 10, 2012 14:34:08 GMT -8
Nope. My targets tend to be dynamic in nature. My GTFO level is just below the pullback low after the HOD was in.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 14:53:58 GMT -8
This becomes a real issue because now I feel like people look to Avi as a "WHEN" scenario and not an "IF/THEN" ... Don't worry...most people (still) think EW is quackery...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 15:09:51 GMT -8
Nope. My targets tend to be dynamic in nature. My GTFO level is just below the pullback low after the HOD was in. Got _Ranges_?™ But yeah, I was wondering about the 525-527ish zone myself. So far, it's all waiting on something bigger to happen.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 15:59:10 GMT -8
AAPL-EW INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART: Okay, peeps...see the blue Fib grid? Those are all the levels that have to break on the way to 473-475-ish. So it's NOT a given. See the yellow Fib grid? Use that for the upside ladder. Also, the Fib grid of the retrace from 594.59 to [wherever we bottom] will be a good upside ladder... Right here, no man's land. We can bottom any time now. Or not.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 16:02:37 GMT -8
SO CONFUSED
Except the 518ish range, just look at that confluence. That's one of the bulls' last lines of defense - the double bottom possibility. Btw iPad, how much leeway is allowed for double/triple bottom theory? I know, cross-topic, but is 505 / 518 / 505 (maybe even a little under that) still valid?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 16:14:08 GMT -8
SO CONFUSED Except the 518ish range, just look at that confluence. That's one of the bulls' last lines of defense - the double bottom possibility. Btw iPad, how much leeway is allowed for double/triple bottom theory? I know, cross-topic, but is 505 / 518 / 505 (maybe even a little under that) still valid? Mav, all valid. Small, short breach, also valid. Double bottom is fine...triple tends to break lower. I don't want to see a triple in play.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 16:17:21 GMT -8
Neither do I! Double bottom is cutting it close as it is!
Btw, could 505/518/505 also be interpreted as a double bottom (two 505s)?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 16:50:36 GMT -8
IMHO, yes. That's a W-bottom.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 16:59:11 GMT -8
(Let's not test that particularly given the weak bounce, but good to know. )
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 17:07:40 GMT -8
Lovey, don't we have a 555 in there?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 17:32:33 GMT -8
Posted with Avi's permission... This is the most bearish short-term count on the table... It's invalidated above 555 (Mark, here's where the 555 comes into play), suggesting we *may* have our bottom. AAPL INTRADAY 3-MIN CHART: (Avi overlays all his Fib grids, so I can't always tells which slice is from where...)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 17:53:29 GMT -8
So...NOT 473, maybe?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 19:06:08 GMT -8
Let's see what happens at 505, 500, 495 first...
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Post by alice on Dec 10, 2012 19:33:34 GMT -8
Posted with Avi's permission... This is the most bearish short-term count on the table... It's invalidated above 555 (Mark, here's where the 555 comes into play), suggesting we *may* have our bottom. AAPL INTRADAY 3-MIN CHART: (Avi overlays all his Fib grids, so I can't always tells which slice is from where...) I don't understand. What is the chart saying? Thanks.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 19:44:16 GMT -8
Alice, EW is highly analytic and it's hard enough for me to semi-understand; so I'm not the best at explaining every possible alternate count. I provided the chart for those who are more analytic than I am because there were some questions about exact Fib levels.
I think if you're less analytic, it's best to stick with the Big Picture on EW, then defer to regular, straight TA which is infinitely easier to learn / understand for smaller picture.
Have you looked at the Hugs & Kisses Chart, for example? That's quick and easy support and resistance levels at a glance.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 19:53:18 GMT -8
Lovey, don't think for a second that I have not picked up on the Love Avi's group has for our princess. "An amazing Elliotician", props for getting respect from those guys. I have to tell you, Bama is very very good.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 20:00:28 GMT -8
Awww...thanks, Mark! That means a lot! Yes, Bama's great! He is a professional money manager, and he often shares "memos" he gets from his company's trading desk. He bought and bought and bought AAPL shares all the way down. Then, when I was in Chicago, he sold covered calls (weeklies! 595!), and I was screaming at him for refusing to cover and scaring me! Then he dumped 1/2 his shares last week...but he's such an uber-bull, I really didn't think he could last...and sure enough! Ha! Back in!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 20:04:40 GMT -8
Let's see what happens at 505, 500, 495 first... Let's see it doesn't get that far?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 20:05:58 GMT -8
Posted with Avi's permission... This is the most bearish short-term count on the table... It's invalidated above 555 (Mark, here's where the 555 comes into play), suggesting we *may* have our bottom. AAPL INTRADAY 3-MIN CHART: (Avi overlays all his Fib grids, so I can't always tells which slice is from where...) Oh wait, so I totally misread? Avi's projection still targets the low 500s at the "highest"? Also also, am I missing something? MB's in the group? Bama is who? Avi says iPad's a Padawan-class EW person or something?
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Post by alice on Dec 10, 2012 20:21:08 GMT -8
Bama sold 1/2 of his position last week. Today, Bama is back in. Back in meaing - Did Bama buy back all position he sold last week? Is Bama trading the short term?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 20:41:24 GMT -8
Bama sold 1/2 of his position last week. Today, Bama is back in. Back in meaing - Did Bama buy back all position he sold last week? Is Bama trading the short term? Bama bought back everything he sold because he regretted selling them and wanted them back. He's NOT trading those shares short-term...those are intermediate/long-term holdings. And right now, he's not trading AAPL short-term at all, even with options. He's trading other stuff, not AAPL. Just holding AAPL.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2012 20:45:51 GMT -8
Oh wait, so I totally misread? Avi's projection still targets the low 500s at the "highest"? Also also, am I missing something? MB's in the group? Bama is who? Avi says iPad's a Padawan-class EW person or something? Nono, either we've already bottomed, OR we have those lower targets. Mark signed up for the free 15-day trial to Avi's trading group. Bama's a guy in the group. (Bama for "Alabama")
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2012 20:48:23 GMT -8
I thought MB liked Bama because SEC and everything. (I'll be here all week.)
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 21:24:40 GMT -8
I thought MB liked Bama because SEC and everything. (I'll be here all week.) Actually Mav, I do like Bama. I like the way they play football. I really did not care who won that game because I thought either would represent the south against ND nicely. I am not a Mark Richt fan. I liked him when he was at Florida State. As for Bama in Avi's group, over the past 5 days he has been quite bearish, even calling for a $100 point drop. I may be missing something, unknown context, but this is the first I have heard that he is an AAPL bull. As a matter of fact I remember him saying he hates Apple. There are some really smart guys in that room, color me impressed.
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