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Post by appledoc on May 27, 2014 15:21:43 GMT -8
Insane bullish wave. So many stacked wave 3s. Wouldn't be shocked to see 700 before the split. Hey Doc, appreciate your enthusiasm. Would you mind elaborating on "stacked wave 3's? A link to a reference image/chart would be awesome. Thanks
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 27, 2014 15:49:17 GMT -8
nathanstevens, Refer to my post dated May 21, 2014 at 1:07pm. AAPL appears to be in wave (3) of wave iii of wave 3 !!!! Very bullish, if true. At this rate of climb, I've to roll forward all my vertical spreads to capture the rapid appreciation. Almost roll forward the Aug (595/630) - would definitely roll forward if it hits $630. Roll...forward? As in, shorter-term?
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Post by mace on May 27, 2014 20:09:51 GMT -8
Almost roll forward the Aug (595/630) - would definitely roll forward if it hits $630. Roll...forward? As in, shorter-term? As AAPL goes higher than $630, delta of the spread becomes smaller i.e. smaller gain for each dollar gain in share price. So need to roll forward to, say, Oct (630/665) or Oct (665/700) or up to, say Aug (630/665) or Aug (665/700) to benefit from the rapid appreciation. If slower, would just leave the position alone.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 27, 2014 20:17:36 GMT -8
Gotcha. AAPL seems to have serious momentum behind it, just not sure about what impact WWDC and the share split will have.
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Post by mace on May 27, 2014 23:39:03 GMT -8
Bearish divergence in 1 min chart. Let see whether AAPL ignores it or neutralizes it by retracing to $615.
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Post by mace on May 29, 2014 6:43:41 GMT -8
From the low of $580.33 is an incredibly perfect EW impulse. wave one = $580.33 - $597.45 wave two = $597.45 - $585.28 wave three = $585.28 - $630, 2.618 of length of wave one wave four = $630 - $623.66 wave five = $623.66 - in progress, currently stall at 0.383 of length of wave one
Note: Price may be slightly off due to just taking off from ToS chart
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Post by mace on May 29, 2014 6:57:07 GMT -8
wave 3.iii.(3) = $580.33 to ...
So the current incredibly perfect EW impulse is 3.iii.(3) or 3.iii.(3).(i)?
Upon completion of the impulse, If former, retracement would not be lower than $605 If latter, retracement could be as low as $585
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Post by nagrani on May 29, 2014 7:09:13 GMT -8
What's the target of each impulse?
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Post by mace on May 29, 2014 7:48:52 GMT -8
What's the target of each impulse? Basic target is always 2.618 of length of wave one. Going for breakfast now.
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Post by mace on May 29, 2014 8:57:54 GMT -8
Updated and adjusted for dividends. wave 1 = $373.52 to $568.54, length = $195.02 wave 2 = $568.54 to $487.89 wave 3.i = $487.89 to $548.13, length = $60.24 wave 3.ii = $548.13 to $508.49 wave 3.iii = $508.49 to ... wave 3.iii.(1) = $508.49 to $601.05, length = $92.56 wave 3.iii.(2) = $601.05 to $580.33 (22.4% retracement, so low, barely qualified as a wave two) wave 3.iii.(3) = $580.33 to ... Assuming wave 3.iii.(2) is completed, possible targets of 3.iii.(3) would be: (3)'s length = 0.618 of (1)'s length, $637.53 (3)'s length = (1)'s length, $672.89 (3)'s length = 1.618 of (1)'s length, $730.09 Basic target for impulse (original of wave one + 2.618 of length of wave one): 12345 = $884 i-ii-iii-iv-v = $646, for 3.618 = $706 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) = $751, for 1.618 = $658 The targets vary from 1.618 to 7 times length of wave one. The most common is 2.618, so use it as a norm.
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Post by mace on May 29, 2014 11:20:12 GMT -8
What's the target of each impulse? As for the incredibly perfect, the norm for extended third wave is 61.8% of wave one i.e. $634.23 (passed), highly likely to be more than length of wave one i.e. $640.77, currently stall at 78.6% ($636.87). Usually, when length of fifth wave is longer than length of wave one, it means extended fifth wave, doesn't look like so (I could be wrong).
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Post by lovemyipad on May 29, 2014 18:03:03 GMT -8
Hey Doc, appreciate your enthusiasm. Would you mind elaborating on "stacked wave 3's? A link to a reference image/chart would be awesome. Thanks Sweet!!!!!!!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on May 29, 2014 18:04:41 GMT -8
Updated and adjusted for dividends. wave 1 = $373.52 to $568.54 wave 2 = $568.54 to $487.89 wave 3.i = $487.89 to $548.13 wave 3.ii = $548.13 to $508.49 wave 3.iii = $508.49 to ... wave 3.iii.(1) = $508.49 to $601.05, length = $92.56 wave 3.iii.(2) = $601.05 to $580.33 (22.4% retracement, so low, barely qualified as a wave two) wave 3.iii.(3) = $580.33 to ... Assuming wave 3.iii.(2) is completed, possible targets of 3.iii.(3) would be: (3)'s length = 0.618 of (1)'s length, $637.53(3)'s length = (1)'s length, $672.89 (3)'s length = 1.618 of (1)'s length, $730.09 Ding, ding, ding!!!!
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Post by mace on May 29, 2014 22:20:26 GMT -8
Updated and adjusted for dividends. wave 1 = $373.52 to $568.54 wave 2 = $568.54 to $487.89 wave 3.i = $487.89 to $548.13 wave 3.ii = $548.13 to $508.49 wave 3.iii = $508.49 to ... wave 3.iii.(1) = $508.49 to $601.05, length = $92.56 wave 3.iii.(2) = $601.05 to $580.33 (22.4% retracement, so low, barely qualified as a wave two) wave 3.iii.(3) = $580.33 to ... Assuming wave 3.iii.(2) is completed, possible targets of 3.iii.(3) would be: (3)'s length = 0.618 of (1)'s length, $637.53(3)'s length = (1)'s length, $672.89 (3)'s length = 1.618 of (1)'s length, $730.09 Ding, ding, ding!!!! Could well be right . If correct, possible targets for 3.iii.(4) = 14.6% retracement, $628.6 (minimum) 23.6% retracement, $623.5 (my guess) 38.2% retracement, $615.3 (norm) 50.0% retracement, $608.6 (rare)
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Post by mace on May 30, 2014 11:53:25 GMT -8
wave 3.iii.(3) = $580.33 to ... So the current incredibly perfect EW impulse is 3.iii.(3) or 3.iii.(3).(i)? Upon completion of the impulse, If former, retracement would not be lower than $605 If latter, retracement could be as low as $585 $580.33 to $644.17 completes the impulse. Retracement: 14.6% = $634.85 (passed) 23.6% = $629.10 ($628.90 lowest, and rebouncing) 38.2% = $619.78 50.0% = $612.25 61.8% = $604.72 76.4% = $595.40 $628.90 low passed the minimum retracement for both 3.iii.(4) and 3.iii.(3).(ii).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 30, 2014 12:02:26 GMT -8
Fibonacci on a roll today.
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dawg
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Post by dawg on May 30, 2014 13:56:08 GMT -8
Hello Mace, passing the retracement with 628.9. Does that imply we get to 619 or could retracement be done? Thanks.
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Post by appledoc on May 30, 2014 15:51:26 GMT -8
Hello Mace, passing the retracement with 628.9. Does that imply we get to 619 or could retracement be done? Thanks. Can always go below (above) the fib targets. Doesn't imply that you retrace lower.
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Post by appledoc on May 30, 2014 16:22:45 GMT -8
There are so many possibilities here.
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Post by mace on May 30, 2014 17:35:14 GMT -8
Hello Mace, passing the retracement with 628.9. Does that imply we get to 619 or could retracement be done? Thanks. Can always go below (above) the fib targets. Doesn't imply that you retrace lower. Exactly. No way to know, need to make judgement call here. To err on the safe side, closed short-term option position (do nothing for shares), leaving vertical call spreads (Jan 595/700). Place GTC buy for more vcs(595/700) at around $600. The obvious congestion ($601-$580) would be revisited if there is one more push up to test $676.81 (adjusted for dividend). If no push, logically should be down to at least $605. So also place a smaller GTC buy at $605. Caveat: GTC buy order would be adjusted according to future price behavior. Happy that worth of option trading account is 20% above that of when AAPL is at ATH in Sep 2012. I believe the key is to trade conservatively, err on the safe side and have at least 20% cash to recover from mistakes.
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dawg
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Post by dawg on May 30, 2014 20:49:48 GMT -8
Mace and Appledoc,
Thanks to both of you for the reply. Very helpful. Your scenario of possible wave v of iii reaching 676 before bigger retracement in iv fits very well with another poster I respect very much on elliottwavetrader.net. near term looking for 620-624 early next week (pre split numbers) followed by rise to the 676 level (hopefully the apple conference provides a catalyst although past years have been sell on the news) then the bigger correction to 600-615. price action early next week post split sets the tone. let's see. Thanks again.
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Post by bryanyc on May 31, 2014 7:53:29 GMT -8
I see it as being extremely likely that we will retrace to around 600 sooner rather than later to what I see as bottom of the 5 year channel. I created spreads when the stock hit 625 (a little early even though I could see the attraction of the 644 resistance that the stock shot up to) out of my long term option positions (Jan 15 500's and 550's) selling Oct 600's and Jan 630's against them taking out all of my original investment. This yields max capped profit at 644 in Oct. and 670 in Jan and protects my current position down to about 580. I know it sounds conservative but this may well be my last big play in AAPL after 10+ years and I am not taking a big chance on losing it. Of course the size of those original naked positions when they were out of the money was anything but conservative . I feel that with all the upgrades and euphoria surrounding the stock at the moment that there there is a bit of irrational exuberance going on about how quickly and easily we are going to 700 as if it is a foregone conclusion. Yes I believe the stock will go to 700 / 100 but not solidly over that until after Jan expiration: there will be a huge call wall there. I would consider buying back some of the short legs if the stock falls below 600. But I am more inclined to just ride it out and collect the premium over the next 7 months and reduce my risk after the big move up from the 520's.
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Post by mace on May 31, 2014 22:30:09 GMT -8
I feel that with all the upgrades and euphoria surrounding the stock at the moment that there there is a bit of irrational exuberance going on about how quickly and easily we are going to 700 as if it is a foregone conclusion. Yes I believe the stock will go to 700 / 100 but not solidly over that until after Jan expiration: there will be a huge call wall there. I would consider buying back some of the short legs if the stock falls below 600. But I am more inclined to just ride it out and collect the premium over the next 7 months and reduce my risk after the big move up from the 520's. Jan 15 is more than 6 months away, even if AAPL trades at $700 in Jan 15, it doesn't imply that AAPL can't be trading at $800 between now till Jan 15 e.g. Call wall in Aug is $700 (so is possible to be at $700 in Aug). Sep, Nov and Dec options are not yet. So, AAPL can trade at $800 (post split $125) in any of those three months. And then tumble back to $700 in Jan 15.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 31, 2014 23:19:35 GMT -8
Isn't it possible for the 700 (well, 100 soon enough) call wall to be "beaten" by January?
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Post by bryanyc on Jun 1, 2014 7:52:23 GMT -8
Sure it's all possible. But I am not betting on it and feel more more comfortable with my "secure" estimates of 644 and 675 in Oct and Jan which is less than what I would expect the stock to go. Btw, about a month ago In one of my infrequent posts here (or Braeburn) I estimated 644 by the WWDC. I would probably be more aggressive with my estimates for the next 7 months if I was not sitting on such a large position of all options. In fact for 25% of my position I did sell Jan 700's. Back in Jan 2012 I held a large naked 400 Jan 2013 position and sold 500's against them right after the gap up to the run to 700 and felt like a fool for missing the rally. The stock closed at the expiration in Jan 2013 almost exactly at 500. I may miss some gains here if there is another leg up- but I am not risking my substantial profits on it. The run from 450 to 625 is enough for me with the added 30 points on average of time value gained from creating the 500-600 and 550-630 (and the smaller 500-700) spreads. Again, there is a lot of exuberance on the stock at the moment and it may well carry it substantially higher but I don't want to risk a correction at an untimely expiration moment
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Post by bryanyc on Jun 1, 2014 8:21:31 GMT -8
Mace: 800 post split would be 114.28. 125 post split would equal 875.
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Post by mace on Jun 1, 2014 8:57:35 GMT -8
Sure it's all possible. But I am not betting on it and feel more more comfortable with my "secure" estimates of 644 and 675 in Oct and Jan which is less than what I would expect the stock to go. Btw, about a month ago In one of my infrequent posts here (or Braeburn) I estimated 644 by the WWDC. I would probably be more aggressive with my estimates for the next 7 months if I was not sitting on such a large position of all options. In fact for 25% of my position I did sell Jan 700's. Back in Jan 2012 I held a large naked 400 Jan 2013 position and sold 500's against them right after the gap up to the run to 700 and felt like a fool for missing the rally. The stock closed at the expiration in Jan 2013 almost exactly at 500. I may miss some gains here if there is another leg up- but I am not risking my substantial profits on it. The run from 450 to 625 is enough for me with the added 30 points on average of time value gained from creating the 500-600 and 550-630 (and the smaller 500-700) spreads. Again, there is a lot of exuberance on the stock at the moment and it may well carry it substantially higher but I don't want to risk a correction at an untimely expiration moment Similar experience and sentiments, and decision too .
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Post by mace on Jun 1, 2014 9:03:55 GMT -8
Isn't it possible for the 700 (well, 100 soon enough) call wall to be "beaten" by January? No rigorous study done, I vaguely remember no chance of that happening since my dabbling from 2006. In fact, it behaves like a magnet, so strong that at least in one year, it pulls AAPL down to it even though it is trading more than 20% above barely one month ago.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 1, 2014 9:18:19 GMT -8
Depends on new call walls between now and Jan. Meet the new mini options, almost.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 2, 2014 15:25:45 GMT -8
I think we need more down before we get above 644 again.
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