Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 11, 2012 18:07:36 GMT -8
Nonono, not at all saying that's our "if we're ever RIMM" target. Saying interesting that 317's in our proportional chain of levels that got us to this point. I remember back when 317-ish was signficant, so it kinda makes sense. Like right now, we have 505 to 595. If it turns out that 505.75 was our bottom, and then there's a good chance that 505 to 595 is our new baseline .618... All the future turning points in this series of waves will be based (some multiple/fraction) of this. Okay, now I'm giving myself a headache. EW really is over my head... It took me a long time to grasp the parts I do know!! Let's go talk about MACD-h or something... Whew...for now. iPad - if you ever give up technicals - I don't know you anymore. *serious* well no I'd probably just make my own ProBoards forum or something, of course it'd be a friendly account self-delete, I wouldn't tell anyone and no one would care anyway
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 11, 2012 18:09:15 GMT -8
I should mention that that 505-595 = .618 or something you said just now resonated with a strange...clarity in my mind. That's...troublesome.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 11, 2012 20:56:01 GMT -8
I just spent entirely too long on this. Tomorrow I'm only going to focus on trying to count 705 forward. I thought going back and trying to count from 310 was going to be easier, but it's really not. Not only that, but the count I liked the most was the one that put the end of wave V at 705.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 11, 2012 21:15:44 GMT -8
I just spent entirely too long on this. Tomorrow I'm only going to focus on trying to count 705 forward. I thought going back and trying to count from 310 was going to be easier, but it's really not. Not only that, but the count I liked the most was the one that put the end of wave V at 705. Hmmmmmmmm, that is the one that I have been annoyed with for a while. It is the only one that made sense to me. Problem is that the 200 point drop does not work either because that would mean AAPL is over because we would be in A down. Yikes (That would mean that it should still retest 640, but butt ugly after that.) Doc, go back to March 09 and see what you get. I think you still end up in the same place. (That place is confused, lol)
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Post by alice on Dec 11, 2012 22:34:18 GMT -8
I just spent entirely too long on this. Tomorrow I'm only going to focus on trying to count 705 forward. I thought going back and trying to count from 310 was going to be easier, but it's really not. Not only that, but the count I liked the most was the one that put the end of wave V at 705. Hmmmmmmmm, that is the one that I have been annoyed with for a while. It is the only one that made sense to me. Problem is that the 200 point drop does not work either because that would mean AAPL is over because we would be in A down. Yikes (That would mean that it should still retest 640, but butt ugly after that.) Doc, go back to March 09 and see what you get. I think you still end up in the same place. (That place is confused, lol) Mb, sounds like you know EW. What is this count you speak of?
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 11, 2012 23:12:50 GMT -8
LOL, No Alice. I have followed for years going back to 2007. I read intently the discussions between Mace and Deagol. One of the most famous quotes ever was Deagol saying something to the effect, I think our count is broken. I remember Artman replying NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! laughed my but off. I think I even remember Wheeles commenting. Tommo use to hate EW. There were others I remember, but Mace was the one who kept it going. He did give a lot of different scenarios. If you read it enough you understand what is being said, that does not make me an EW guy. I see the counts, know some of the rules and have no faith in myself to be an EW person. (considering I am a card carrying member of the tin foil hat club, that is odd ) I am a fundamentals guy, then a trend guy, then everything else. I have learned about all of it, but none of it is exact. This recent embedded oversold was just as curious as the first part of the year when it was embedded overbought. That just tells you, the market does what it wants. EW does not tell you the bottom is in until it has passed. It does give you insight as to where the bottom may be. One day AAPL will move back up, It just can't tell you when.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 12, 2012 5:31:04 GMT -8
The one thing I really don't get right now is why wave IV-C is a lower low than wave IV-A. I guess that's allowed? What I am about to post is basically this question phrased better. If we were in wave III, is the lower limit of the price action the end point of II and the upper limit the end point of III? Or if we were in wave IV, is the upper limit the end point of III and the lower limit the end point of IV? Essentially, can the price be whatever within a wave so long as I > II, III > I, II, etc.?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 12, 2012 5:32:50 GMT -8
I just spent entirely too long on this. Tomorrow I'm only going to focus on trying to count 705 forward. I thought going back and trying to count from 310 was going to be easier, but it's really not. Not only that, but the count I liked the most was the one that put the end of wave V at 705. Consider starting at 505.75. The decline from 705 to 505 was a complex correction with a few alternate counts; IMHO, it might be easier (more fun, less headache) to learn the more common corrective waves first, then build onto that foundation. Counting waves (with all the alternate scenarios) feels to me like strategizing a chess game. Same mindset. On your other questions, easier to answer with pictures... Will post those later, as I'm still in bed on my iPad...heehee.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 12, 2012 5:39:22 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Dec 12, 2012 6:00:43 GMT -8
Perfect! That's exactly what I needed.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 12, 2012 9:06:16 GMT -8
The piercing of 538 must mean something here...although it's still holding up somewhat.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 12, 2012 9:44:13 GMT -8
The piercing of 538 must mean something here...although it's still holding up somewhat. A holding pattern until FOMC. No surprise whatsoever. Given that this last couple of days appears to be a buy-the-hype type move, don't be surprised if we now get a sell-the-news reaction.
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Post by kloot on Dec 13, 2012 10:59:01 GMT -8
is Avi still long?
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Post by wheeles on Dec 13, 2012 11:29:21 GMT -8
Doubtful.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 13, 2012 14:22:14 GMT -8
He's still waiting the pattern out.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 13, 2012 14:30:35 GMT -8
Avi's been day trading long and short. And what appledoc said.
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Post by alice on Dec 13, 2012 14:40:49 GMT -8
He's still waiting the pattern out. What do you mean by waiting the pattern out? Thanks.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 13, 2012 15:47:30 GMT -8
Break out (confirm 505 as bottom) or break down (retest 505).
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Post by appledoc on Dec 13, 2012 16:07:13 GMT -8
Break out (confirm 505 as bottom) or break down (retest 505). Is breakout still above 555.20 if we were to not break any levels below where we are?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 13, 2012 17:22:15 GMT -8
This is TA and EW combined in one chart... We're stuck in this triangle. Either we break out or we break down decisively (e.g., more than two seconds to run the stops). TA provides measured moves: approximately 30 points from the break in either direction. EW targets derived from Fibs. Follow the levels... AAPL-EW 15 MIN INTRADAY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2012 17:27:21 GMT -8
This is TA and EW combined in one chart... We're stuck in this triangle. Either we break out or we break down decisively (e.g., more than two seconds to run the stops). TA provides measured moves: approximately 30 points from the break in either direction. EW targets derived from Fibs. Follow the levels... AAPL-EW 15 MIN INTRADAY CHART: How convenient that the fiscal cliff "resolution" is due right around this time. I have a technicals triangle/wedge/trendline convergence thingy saying something very similar in terms of timeframe. Coincidence?
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Post by appledoc on Dec 13, 2012 19:52:10 GMT -8
We've been breaking all of the intraday triangles I've seen to the downside. I'm thinking we break this to the downside too. Quite frankly, the sooner the better. I just want this over with.
I have a feeling we'll break 518 tomorrow.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2012 20:08:30 GMT -8
If you don't have the farm bet on Jan 13s...I think you're still OK. (Though I'm sitting around with what meager cash I have left, with relatively little on the table.) Things seem dire and yet that other intermediate-term "smooshie" as iPad might put it STILL hasn't resolved. Soon(tm), though! Fiscal cliff walking/diving/resolution (maybe not that last one for a while ) looks to take us there.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 14, 2012 8:09:05 GMT -8
AAPL-EW DAILY CHART:
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 14, 2012 8:41:41 GMT -8
iPad - it seems to have reached that target....what next?
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 14, 2012 8:51:43 GMT -8
iPad - it seems to have reached that target....what next? Phoebes, I think EW is broken again. There is nothing to support the price. If 505.75 not hold the 470's are next. IMO. P/E does not matter. This is a war against a stock.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 14, 2012 9:42:26 GMT -8
Next we do what we always do. We oscillate from support to resistance. Break one level, target the next. Fail to break, turn around and go the other way. That magic formula never changes.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 14, 2012 9:46:34 GMT -8
IF we have not bottomed, THEN here's a possible bear count: AAPL-EW 15-MIN CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 14, 2012 9:47:58 GMT -8
There is nothing to support the price. If 505.75 not hold the 470's are next. IMO. P/E does not matter. This is a war against a stock. When I look at the weekly chart, that SMA-100 is sitting right there...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2012 11:45:46 GMT -8
Dear *deity of choice*, the SMA-100 is NOT somewhere AAPL wants to go. It's only been there twice since 2005ish (far back as I can see) - the second time was the way up.
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