jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Nov 6, 2012 13:03:21 GMT -8
Looking at Apple's 10K, I see that (excluding retail store investment) they will spend a billion more in 2013 than they did in 2012 on CapEx. Given that 2012 was such a huge launch year, any thoughts on where all the CapEx spending will be going in 2013?
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Post by lance on Nov 6, 2012 13:04:34 GMT -8
AAPL cannot have 2 days in a row up. Even though it is basically close the cheapest stock on the market. I guess Peter O did a perfect job with that 11.75 EPS guidance to cool expectations to the point where people think they are holding RIMM not AAPL. haha
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Post by appledoc on Nov 6, 2012 13:05:07 GMT -8
Strong close above EMA200 (582.34) would be good. Moved 1.50 in the final five minutes to close above. Mildly encouraging.
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Post by johng on Nov 6, 2012 13:05:57 GMT -8
This stock is surely and simply the biggest POS I have ever seen. I sold everything and might buy my LEAPS back when we see the 400s. Good luck everyone! Sucks to be an aapl investor right now, that's for sure! Hope you don't get a chance at 400's though. FWIW, I normally BTFD's but NOT right now. Aapl is in the "show me" cat for many folks right now and that will make it difficult to get out of these doldrums. Hoping for the best but defending for the worst might be the best action right now. Hope I'm wrong but I don't see a rocket rebound any time soon. cheers JohnG
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Post by nate010203 on Nov 6, 2012 13:06:41 GMT -8
AAPL cannot have 2 days in a row up. Even though it is basically close the cheapest stock on the market. I guess Peter O did a perfect job with that 11.75 EPS guidance to cool expectations to the point where people think they are holding RIMM not AAPL. haha yep a p/e of 13.2 is too expensive especially when the iphones and ipads are selling like hotcakes and the company increases their earnings each year... while amazon looses money and it goes up.. yep makes perfect sense..
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Post by appledoc on Nov 6, 2012 13:07:34 GMT -8
Strong close above EMA200 (582.34) would be good. Would you settle for a tepid one? Yes! I should have clarified that. A strong close above would have convinced me to jump in again. I'll wait to see what tomorrow brings.
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Post by nate010203 on Nov 6, 2012 13:08:40 GMT -8
Would you settle for a tepid one? Yes! I should have clarified that. A strong close above would have convinced me to jump in again. I'll wait to see what tomorrow brings. more down of course.. Im sick of this crap
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Post by fas550 on Nov 6, 2012 13:08:58 GMT -8
Look I didn't mean to start an effing pitty party. Yup it sucks. It's sucked in the past. You can have a clear constant graph line up and to the right but you are probably not making the gains we will make. At this point it's more likely we have a 20 point gain in a day than a 20 point loss which is why I'm staying in. Truthfully my greatest concern is if we get back to our ATH in a month or 6 weeks the TA will probably look like crap and it will be a challenge to propel things higher. Anyway I was just looking for some plausible explanation of what is going on right now and what I hear is plausible. Fundamentally we have probably not looked better in a few years: new form-factor phone, new iPad, new cheaper iPad, China Unicom (and maybe China mobile) and now India. Five or more planets are aligning for this and next qtr earnings.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 6, 2012 13:09:07 GMT -8
$400s? Not gonna happen without something the stock markets haven't yet foreseen.
Beyond the elections and their implications, the markets have priced that in quite a bit. We're talking something at least somewhat close to 2008 all over again.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 6, 2012 13:09:22 GMT -8
Yes I am. Sold my 2013 and 2014 LEAPS. I am sure I can buy them back by the end of the year much, much cheaper. May be I am wrong and the stock doesn't go down much further, but we broke some serious technical support levels and I don't see any catalysts to give this stock a boost. Apple does not require catalysts to rally, nor to correct. I seriously doubt it will be much cheaper this year.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 6, 2012 13:10:05 GMT -8
AAPL cannot have 2 days in a row up. Even though it is basically close the cheapest stock on the market. I guess Peter O did a perfect job with that 11.75 EPS guidance to cool expectations to the point where people think they are holding RIMM not AAPL. haha yep a p/e of 13.2 is too expensive especially when the iphones and ipads are selling like hotcakes and the company increases their earnings each year... while amazon looses money and it goes up.. yep makes perfect sense.. Nate - why do you insist on moaning and groaning to us about this? What do you think we can do? The answer is nothing, and this theme is well past tiresome. Give us a break.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 6, 2012 13:12:34 GMT -8
Yes I am. Sold my 2013 and 2014 LEAPS. I am sure I can buy them back by the end of the year much, much cheaper. May be I am wrong and the stock doesn't go down much further, but we broke some serious technical support levels and I don't see any catalysts to give this stock a boost. I disagree. Black Friday through the end of the year and the huge demand for all products Apple will be the catalyst. We may not see 700 again until 2013 but we're going up by year end. Guidance by CRUS, QCOM and others give us clues. Channel checks as we move through the Q will be another. Three million iPad sales in 3 days yet another. Let the EOs have their day in the near term.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 13:19:56 GMT -8
Yes I am. Sold my 2013 and 2014 LEAPS. I am sure I can buy them back by the end of the year much, much cheaper. May be I am wrong and the stock doesn't go down much further, but we broke some serious technical support levels and I don't see any catalysts to give this stock a boost. IMHO, technical breaks = pre-election-results headfake.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 6, 2012 13:21:44 GMT -8
Truthfully my greatest concern is if we get back to our ATH in a month or 6 weeks the TA will probably look like crap and it will be a challenge to propel things higher. Truthfully, I don't think you'll have to "worry" about a retest of the ATH before next earnings.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 13:22:45 GMT -8
Doesn't it kinda feel like everything happens a month too early this year? Sells off too early, rallies too early, etc. etc. Almost like someone(s) stole the playbook and preempts all the usual moves.
So maybe we're already at Black Friday 2011...
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Post by nkmho on Nov 6, 2012 13:25:07 GMT -8
Doesn't it kinda feel like everything happens a month too early this year? Sells off too early, rallies too early, etc. etc. Almost like someone(s) stole the playbook and preempts all the usual moves. Sure seems that way. It's like the big boys are trying to front run each other.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 13:30:51 GMT -8
Apple does not require catalysts to rally, nor to correct. (...) +1
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Post by jdubuc on Nov 6, 2012 13:34:20 GMT -8
Thanks much 4aapl for the clarification -- I think you'll do very well with those Octs.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 13:36:57 GMT -8
Disappointed! In today's action. This is just annoying. Any thoughts on what the EO are doing or what else is going on. (...) Not looking for a fight or to be flamed just a plausible explanation. The usual. Shaking out weak hands. Why? Because they can. Big Money rings the bell at the top, and at the bottom. When sellers hold out for higher prices, prices rise. When buyers hold out for lower prices, prices fall. The sheer absence of buying + people's uncertainty about whether AAPL will drop another 100 points = sellers who accept lower prices
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Post by fas550 on Nov 6, 2012 13:39:02 GMT -8
Truthfully my greatest concern is if we get back to our ATH in a month or 6 weeks the TA will probably look like crap and it will be a challenge to propel things higher. Truthfully, I don't think you'll have to "worry" about a retest of the ATH before next earnings. Why don't you think so? 705 would mean a PE of around 16 if they just meet expectations of a 13.3 EPS. OR do you think they are going to sit on their hands and see and risk having to pay 20-30 more on the day after. Also wouldn't window dressing before Dec 31st in funds account for something? Just curious what you're thinking.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 13:40:23 GMT -8
Truthfully my greatest concern is if we get back to our ATH in a month or 6 weeks the TA will probably look like crap and it will be a challenge to propel things higher. Truthfully, I don't think you'll have to "worry" about a retest of the ATH before next earnings. Price action drives the technicals, not the other way around. I need to take a look at a monthly chart...but have we ever had a January without an ATH?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 13:43:00 GMT -8
Yes I am. Sold my 2013 and 2014 LEAPS. I am sure I can buy them back by the end of the year much, much cheaper. May be I am wrong and the stock doesn't go down much further, but we broke some serious technical support levels and I don't see any catalysts to give this stock a boost. Interesting to hear your views on what indicators you think would be present to indicate a bottom has arrived. I see this as a very good chance of being the bottom. using my preferred metric of PE ex-cash, combined with other historcial trends mentioned by others here regarding length & size of previous apple pullbacks, as well as the previous perfromance after breaking key moving averages etc. Of course on a board like this full of apple bulls, there is a danger we are in an echo chamber, so I really value hearing valid opposing views. I concede that there could be a difference this time due to apple "underperforming" (according to analysts expectations) on 2 consecutive quarterly earnings, and also not helped by Q1 guidance being under last years result (despite the high odds of apple beating them).
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 6, 2012 13:48:34 GMT -8
I need to take a look at a monthly chart...but have we ever had a January without an ATH? 1998 for one. That's when I first bought shares, and it was roughly at it's low at the start of January. How about both 2008 and 2009. 2008 really was at the high (or a couple days into the end of Dec) and then dropped rapidly. Likely 2001 too.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 13:49:53 GMT -8
I need to take a look at a monthly chart...but have we ever had a January without an ATH? 1998 for one. That's when I first bought shares, and it was roughly at it's low at the start of January. How about both 2008 and 2009. 2008 really was at the high (or a couple days into the end of Dec) and then dropped rapidly. Likely 2001 too. So...not since QE was introduced...
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Post by Iceage on Nov 6, 2012 13:50:20 GMT -8
Blue-Horseshoe tweeted the following a few minutes ago:
@fitzstock2004: if you are a $aapl BULL, you want to see a gap down tomorrow, followed by a RIP to break above 590.75.....If that happens, "the lows" r in
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Post by wheeles on Nov 6, 2012 13:54:17 GMT -8
Blue-Horseshoe tweeted the following a few minutes ago: @fitzstock2004: if you are a $aapl BULL, you want to see a gap down tomorrow, followed by a RIP to break above 590.75.....If that happens, "the lows" r in Well the dividend will cause a gap lower.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 6, 2012 14:18:42 GMT -8
This stock is surely and simply the biggest POS I have ever seen. I sold everything and might buy my LEAPS back when we see the 400s. Good luck everyone! There's one man's capitulation.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 6, 2012 14:20:46 GMT -8
it's interesting that around the same time last year from ATH to trough (Oct 14 high of $422.00 to Nov 25 low of $363.57) it took 42 days before the pain finally ended. This time around, from Sept 21 ATH of $700.71 to Nov 2 low of $576.80 it is also 42 days. Closing only, not intraday. Hopefully this is the end (fingers crossed)! Somebody controlling the action is a Jackie Robinson fan.
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Post by nkmho on Nov 6, 2012 14:21:22 GMT -8
This stock is surely and simply the biggest POS I have ever seen. I sold everything and might buy my LEAPS back when we see the 400s. Good luck everyone! There's one man's capitulation. I think WS is waiting for Nate to capitulate, and once that happens, they'll finally buy in again.
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Post by capablanca on Nov 6, 2012 14:22:47 GMT -8
Doesn't it kinda feel like everything happens a month too early this year? Sells off too early, rallies too early, etc. etc. Almost like someone(s) stole the playbook and preempts all the usual moves. So maybe we're already at Black Friday 2011... I might be recalling this incorrectly, but... Ned Davis Research tracks calendar trends. I believe that October is a historically weak month for AAPL.
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