Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 14:23:50 GMT -8
This stock is surely and simply the biggest POS I have ever seen. I sold everything and might buy my LEAPS back when we see the 400s. Good luck everyone! There's one man's capitulation. Going to the 400s would give us an ex-cash PE ratio under 8! While the company continues to grow at a 50% annual rate!
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 6, 2012 14:29:37 GMT -8
it's interesting that around the same time last year from ATH to trough (Oct 14 high of $422.00 to Nov 25 low of $363.57) it took 42 days before the pain finally ended. This time around, from Sept 21 ATH of $700.71 to Nov 2 low of $576.80 it is also 42 days. Closing only, not intraday. Hopefully this is the end (fingers crossed)! Somebody controlling the action is a Jackie Robinson fan. Nice one....
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 6, 2012 14:35:40 GMT -8
Truthfully, I don't think you'll have to "worry" about a retest of the ATH before next earnings. Why don't you think so? 705 would mean a PE of around 16 if they just meet expectations of a 13.3 EPS. OR do you think they are going to sit on their hands and see and risk having to pay 20-30 more on the day after. Also wouldn't window dressing before Dec 31st in funds account for something? Just curious what you're thinking. An EPS of $13.30 vs $13.87 last year would be a YOY decrease of about 4%. I know we are dealing with the extra week last year, but I am still concerned about the FUD we are going to hear. When was the last time Apple reported a Q1 YOY decrease? I don't think the market will give apple a PE of 16 if YOY is negative.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Nov 6, 2012 14:37:23 GMT -8
Disappointed! In today's action. This is just annoying. Any thoughts on what the EO are doing or what else is going on. (...) Not looking for a fight or to be flamed just a plausible explanation. The usual. Shaking out weak hands. Why? Because they can. Big Money rings the bell at the top, and at the bottom. When sellers hold out for higher prices, prices rise. When buyers hold out for lower prices, prices fall. The sheer absence of buying + people's uncertainty about whether AAPL will drop another 100 points = sellers who accept lower prices Thanks for the perspective and calm, iPad. I tried to Exalt you, but got this response: "An Error Has Occurred. You may only modify a member's karma once each hour. You will be able to exalt or smite again at Nov 6, 2012, 4:18pm" It must be tough being so popular! After reading Plato's post about bailing on APPL, I got an eerie call from Schwab with the rep asking if I knew how risky options are, if I could handle losing those funds, etc. It almost felt like he was trying to telegraph something to me. Holding firm with mostly 2014 expirations. Edit: Oh, I see. One can only exalt or smite someone once per hour. Jeez, I guess I've been over-exalting! Is there a way to open that time frame up? I mean, what if I appreciate more than one post per hour?
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 6, 2012 14:38:09 GMT -8
Why don't you think so? 705 would mean a PE of around 16 if they just meet expectations of a 13.3 EPS. OR do you think they are going to sit on their hands and see and risk having to pay 20-30 more on the day after. Also wouldn't window dressing before Dec 31st in funds account for something? Just curious what you're thinking. An EPS of $13.30 vs $13.87 last year would be a YOY decrease of about 4%. I know we are dealing with the extra week last year, but I am still concerned about the FUD we are going to hear. When was the last time Apple reported a Q1 YOY decrease? I don't think the market will give apple a PE of 16 if YOY is negative. as iPad noted, this year up is down, down is up. most times. we're going up.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 14:48:12 GMT -8
The usual. Shaking out weak hands. Why? Because they can. Big Money rings the bell at the top, and at the bottom. When sellers hold out for higher prices, prices rise. When buyers hold out for lower prices, prices fall. The sheer absence of buying + people's uncertainty about whether AAPL will drop another 100 points = sellers who accept lower prices Thanks for the perspective and calm, iPad. I tried to Exalt you, but got this response: "An Error Has Occurred. You may only modify a member's karma once each hour. You will be able to exalt or smite again at Nov 6, 2012, 4:18pm" It must be tough being so popular! After reading Plato's post about bailing on APPL, I got an eerie call from Schwab with the rep asking if I knew how risky options are, if I could handle losing those funds, etc. It almost felt like he was trying to telegraph something to me. Holding firm with mostly 2014 expirations. What vibe did you get from the broker call? Did they sound like they were genuinely trying to be helpful, or did it sound like a cold call (which would make me think it was more of a concerted effort to get people to sell options and depress prices so they can pick them up cheap).
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Post by appledoc on Nov 6, 2012 15:39:31 GMT -8
Truthfully, I don't think you'll have to "worry" about a retest of the ATH before next earnings. Why don't you think so? 705 would mean a PE of around 16 if they just meet expectations of a 13.3 EPS. OR do you think they are going to sit on their hands and see and risk having to pay 20-30 more on the day after. Also wouldn't window dressing before Dec 31st in funds account for something? Just curious what you're thinking. We need a P/C above 5.5 to get to a new ATH. I know it's only one marker, but that's my cautious thought. I'm fairly constrained in my short term expectations right now. A year from now though? That's a whole different story. And I don't think the hedgies care about the potential for blowout Q1 earnings. Look what happened last year. It takes time for the stock to appropriately adjust. It's not going to jump 100 points overnight.
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Post by rickag on Nov 6, 2012 15:57:14 GMT -8
Why don't you think so? 705 would mean a PE of around 16 if they just meet expectations of a 13.3 EPS. OR do you think they are going to sit on their hands and see and risk having to pay 20-30 more on the day after. Also wouldn't window dressing before Dec 31st in funds account for something? Just curious what you're thinking. We need a P/C above 5.5 to get to a new ATH. I know it's only one marker, but that's my cautious thought. I'm fairly constrained in my short term expectations right now. A year from now though? That's a whole different story. And I don't think the hedgies care about the potential for blowout Q1 earnings. Look what happened last year. It takes time for the stock to appropriately adjust. It's not going to jump 100 points overnight. Just for fun I checked out what a $100 increase would be. AAPL closed @ $592.85 so a $100 increase is only a 17.16% increase. AAPL could do it in say 3 days @ 5%/day. Just trying to be positive.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 6, 2012 16:21:25 GMT -8
as iPad noted, this year up is down, down is up. most times. we're going up. Wait, are you claiming we're going the normal up, up? Or the bizarro-world up, down?
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Nov 6, 2012 16:27:15 GMT -8
Hey burgess, there was no vibe really. Apparently US brokerage houses have to check in with clients when they detect a large rise in risky investing such as options. He said there were SEC and FINRA regulations that require them to have the client acknowledge the level of risk and take guesses at what their trading activity will be in the future. Anybody else experience this? I've definitely been trading more options and spreads since a friend showed me this forum last year.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 6, 2012 16:43:39 GMT -8
as iPad noted, this year up is down, down is up. most times. we're going up. Wait, are you claiming we're going the normal up, up? Or the bizarro-world up, down? Normal up since most are expecting down.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 6, 2012 17:40:30 GMT -8
Why don't you think so? 705 would mean a PE of around 16 if they just meet expectations of a 13.3 EPS. OR do you think they are going to sit on their hands and see and risk having to pay 20-30 more on the day after. Also wouldn't window dressing before Dec 31st in funds account for something? Just curious what you're thinking. An EPS of $13.30 vs $13.87 last year would be a YOY decrease of about 4%. I know we are dealing with the extra week last year, but I am still concerned about the FUD we are going to hear. When was the last time Apple reported a Q1 YOY decrease? I don't think the market will give apple a PE of 16 if YOY is negative. If a YoY decrease happens, it wouldn't be FUD, even accounting for the extra week. It would raise very serious concerns as it would mean AAPL grew less than 8% YoY adjusted for the extra week. I don't think it will happen, but if it does - look out below. I think we will have a healthy YoY increase as we are getting positive signs about supply while demand is through the roof as usual.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 6, 2012 17:47:30 GMT -8
An EPS of $13.30 vs $13.87 last year would be a YOY decrease of about 4%. I know we are dealing with the extra week last year, but I am still concerned about the FUD we are going to hear. When was the last time Apple reported a Q1 YOY decrease? I don't think the market will give apple a PE of 16 if YOY is negative. I think we will have a healthy YoY increase as we are getting positive signs about supply while demand is through the roof as usual. What positive signs about supply are you seeing?
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 6, 2012 18:34:06 GMT -8
had a female friend who came into my room(college dorm) thinking about getting an Ipad mini. Played with it for 10 seconds and said wow amazing yes i want and called her mom to tell her since her mom asked her previously if she wanted one for chrsitmas
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Post by The Big Toe on Nov 6, 2012 18:42:32 GMT -8
had a female friend who came into my room(college dorm) thinking about getting an Ipad mini. Played with it for 10 seconds and said wow amazing yes i want and called her mom to tell her since her mom asked her previously if she wanted one for chrsitmas Dear Penthose, I never thought this would happen to me...
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 6, 2012 18:49:37 GMT -8
hahahaha.
I do love my ipad mini. it is the best. no protection either. that $39 aint worth it..
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Post by appledoc on Nov 6, 2012 19:27:45 GMT -8
It's only 10:30 ET, but futures are getting hammered right now.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 6, 2012 19:43:40 GMT -8
I think we will have a healthy YoY increase as we are getting positive signs about supply while demand is through the roof as usual. What positive signs about supply are you seeing? Nothing concrete, but Cook's comments about a December iPhone launch in China, and the 3M weekend iPad sales.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 6, 2012 19:49:56 GMT -8
3M iPads in 3 days can easily be 10M in a month for iPads of all flavors.
By now Tim and Co. have a good idea of how Wi-Fi models sell relative to the cellular model (I guess Wi-Fi is more popular based on the release sequence?). Tim should ensure a nice supply of cellular models is ready for later this month.
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Post by po1nt on Nov 6, 2012 19:51:56 GMT -8
"VirnetX Holding Corp. (VHC) was awarded $368.2 million after a federal jury today said Apple Inc. (AAPL) infringed its patents for virtual-private-network technology used in Apple’s FaceTime video-calling function."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 6, 2012 20:00:32 GMT -8
And here I thought FaceTime was based on open standards.
Sheesh. Every patent holder wants a piece.
VirnetX extracted a settlement from Microsoft apparently. They also sued Cisco.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 6, 2012 20:02:53 GMT -8
"VirnetX Holding Corp. (VHC) was awarded $368.2 million after a federal jury today said Apple Inc. (AAPL) infringed its patents for virtual-private-network technology used in Apple’s FaceTime video-calling function." With the election and this, looks like an interesting day tomorrow. And probably not in a good way.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 6, 2012 20:03:20 GMT -8
What positive signs about supply are you seeing? Nothing concrete, but Cook's comments about a December iPhone launch in China, and the 3M weekend iPad sales. Did my mall walk today....three stores (Verizon, Sprint, AT&T) and three kiosks for same carriers, plus best buy and radio shack. Verizon and AT&T told me they are now getting iPhone 5s regularly and today the AT&T outlet ( big busy store) told me they received "more today than they had ever gotten before". And they are being sold as fast as they come in. Guy in the Verizon kiosk was waiving an iPhone 5 around and drawing attention to the fact he had stock. This is a much better situation than my last check a week ago...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 6, 2012 20:05:20 GMT -8
Supply takes time to ramp up.
But it gets there. We'll see how improved supply shows up in ship times.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 20:25:28 GMT -8
Nate, name-calling like that will get you thrown off this board. I deleted your post.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 20:27:02 GMT -8
Okay, election uncertainty over. My WAG...by Monday (latest): UP!!!!
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Post by nate010203 on Nov 6, 2012 20:35:00 GMT -8
No need to be mean
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Post by tradermac on Nov 6, 2012 20:39:37 GMT -8
Did anyone notice the enormous volumes for deep ITM JAN 13 calls today? $300 strike over 100k $400 strike over 190k
Is that bullish or bearish? Can't imagine someone would be selling those.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 20:42:31 GMT -8
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 6, 2012 20:58:37 GMT -8
No need to be mean Nate, When someone talks about ignoring Nate Silver, they don't mean you. Your last name doesn't happen to also be Silver, does it?
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