|
Post by lovemyipad on Nov 6, 2012 21:18:34 GMT -8
A2+, that was directed at me for my previous post.
Apparently, my post was so mean that Nate immediately unsubscribed. I didn't boot him.
|
|
|
Post by capablanca on Nov 6, 2012 21:18:42 GMT -8
Did anyone notice the enormous volumes for deep ITM JAN 13 calls today? $300 strike over 100k $400 strike over 190k Is that bullish or bearish? Can't imagine someone would be selling those. This is not unusual on day before ex-dividend. Those owning deep ITM calls can and do miss out on the dividend. And the $ goes to the Masters of the Universe who run arbitrage games with it.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 21:40:41 GMT -8
Nice charts and comments, but lets face it, if the market valued Apple/AAPL the same way it did everyone else AAPL would be a $1,500 stock MINIMUM, and the likes of Amazon, Facebook and Google would be Penny stocks. The market hasn't been interested in nice charts/comments regarding AAPL for several years. I doubt that is going to change any time soon. I am no longer interested in fundamentals or TA. From now on, I am investing (or not) in what I perceive the big boys are doing, and where they are doing it.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Nov 6, 2012 21:43:13 GMT -8
Got a call from Fidelity today (401k and an IRA). Gave me the options are risky speech (I have 2014 LEAPs). Asked how he could help and suggested I get into a mutual fund or two. I did ask him why didn't make this call when that account was up 40% YoY when aapl was at ATH? Were they less risky then? (Crickets on the line then a regurgitation of Mutual fund benefits. ). I asked him if he really wanted to help he should find a way to enable me to trade options in my 401k not just the IRA. If he needed justification tell his Mgt that if he couldn't the idea of having both accounts in Fidelity is less attractive and I would probably seek another place to put my IRA to lower trading cost.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 21:48:42 GMT -8
Usually 401k's are restricted by your employer, not by the broker. I had the same issue, I solved it by rolling over.
|
|
|
Post by nkmho on Nov 6, 2012 21:53:54 GMT -8
Usually 401k's are restricted by your employer, not by the broker. I had the same issue, I solved it by rolling over. Yeah, my 401k is with Schwab, and when I requested the ability to sell covered calls (highest level there for 401k), they told me I couldn't do it b/c of my employer's restrictions. I rollover my company match quarterly to an IRA at an options friendly broker.
|
|
|
Post by newton on Nov 6, 2012 21:53:58 GMT -8
well so much for Andy Zaky's prediction last week that Apple will go back to $600 by Tuesday...
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Nov 6, 2012 21:56:39 GMT -8
Okay, election uncertainty over. My WAG...by Monday (latest): UP!!!! UP? In all caps? With four exclamation points? That's up pretty big! Hope so, and if so then WINNING! (not intended as a statement on the election )
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 21:56:45 GMT -8
well so much for Andy Zaky's prediction last week that Apple will go back to $600 by Tuesday... AZ gets some right, this he has gotten wrong.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 22:03:51 GMT -8
well so much for Andy Zaky's prediction last week that Apple will go back to $600 by Tuesday... AZ gets some right, this he has gotten wrong. Yep, just lately it's been more wrong than right, which isn't good for the longs
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 6, 2012 22:04:18 GMT -8
AAPL's facing a bit of a test right now.
The immediate points of reference? 580, 577ish, 574-75, 560-570. It's day to day, but sideways sure beats another move down.
|
|
|
Post by nkmho on Nov 6, 2012 22:05:49 GMT -8
AZ gets some right, this he has gotten wrong. Yep, just lately it's been more wrong than right, which isn't good for the longs Maybe that's part of the reason why he closed off new registrations recently to his site.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 6, 2012 22:10:19 GMT -8
Futures getting better as Asia and Europe both register a relieved reaction to .u.s. election....no deadlock...moving on.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Nov 6, 2012 22:16:01 GMT -8
Usually 401k's are restricted by your employer, not by the broker. I had the same issue, I solved it by rolling over. Yeah, my 401k is with Schwab, and when I requested the ability to sell covered calls (highest level there for 401k), they told me I couldn't do it b/c of my employer's restrictions. I rollover my company match quarterly to an IRA at an options friendly broker. Actually I did know that as I had in investigated. My request was partly frustration and partly to give Mr Mutual fund a little challenge (I.e find a way). Lastly if they believe calling me with medieval advice might result in actually loosing business then maybe they will just not bother. That's my hope anyway.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 6, 2012 22:17:02 GMT -8
I know, this is technicals, but y'know, I thought I saw the MACD-h (daily) put in a higher low today. Something to track. Low volume, but AAPL weathered the bear storm better than most recent days.
Still waiting on upside...
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 22:22:39 GMT -8
I know, this is technicals, but y'know, I thought I saw the MACD-h (daily) put in a higher low today. Something to track. Low volume, but AAPL weathered the bear storm better than most recent days. Still waiting on upside... mav, the last 3 bars would give the impression of up, but the MACD continues its march downward. The MACD is actually at a level on both the daily and weekly that are unbelievable.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 6, 2012 22:24:27 GMT -8
I know, the _weekly_ MACD-h is crazy. If freestockcharts is feeding me accurate historical data, then it's NEVER been this low.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 22:28:23 GMT -8
Forget the fundamental research, the TA and gut feelings. AAPL is trading according to a set of rules not applied to any other firm. If you want to make money with AAPL buy the equity and forget that you have it, or watch, very, very closely, what the institutions are doing.
On September 21 AAPL hit a new ATH ($705) and immediately began a very ugly swan dive to $577, a swan dive that occurred in 30 short and violent trading days.
I believe that Apple has missed its last two quarterly numbers.
At the beginning of the swan dive AAPL's P/C ratio was 0.98:1. On October 22, AAPL's P/C ratio dropped (from the prior day) 17 points to 0.72:1.
Open Interest acted as follows: Total Open Interest dropped 931,308 Contracts allocated thusly: Call Open Interest dropped 326,784 contracts while Puts dropped 604,524 contracts.
In the following 9 trading days AAPL's P/C ratio has ranged between 0.70:1 and 0.72:1.
On October 31, total Open Interest dropped 203,683 contracts, this after regaining 560,829 contracts from the precipitous drop of Oct 22. Since then, Call/Put Open Interest has changed as follows:
All 4 days have been positive for AAPL Bulls. The Bulls have clearly wrested control away from the Bears with a growth ratio of 0.58:1.
Short interest (another rich mine field of data) is way down and dropping.
I am not answering any questions about this data. It is self explanatory. If the trend continues through Thursday I will be taking Bullish positions.
The only thing that could change this, is tonight's US election results. If Futures are an indication, the markets do not like them. The US$, NAS100, S&P500, Russell 2000 and DOW are among the biggest downers on the futures market tonight. This is the only time I have seen the Dollar move in concert with all 4 of the major US Indexes since 2008. Overall, Futures are up fairly strong, but then, the rest of the futures market isn't US centric.
Until the institutions have their faith in Apple's guidance restored, AAPL will flounder. The first indication that this is happening will be during the first two weeks of December. If the institutions believe Apple is going to meet, or exceed, THEIR expectations, then AAPL will commence a slow rally, accelerating as we approach January earnings. The reverse is true. Your first signal to institutional sentiment will be AAPL's performance against historical trading trends (Week over Week % movement).
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 22:31:02 GMT -8
I know, the _weekly_ MACD-h is crazy. If freestockcharts is feeding me accurate historical data, then it's NEVER been this low. The MACD has been much lower, are yo talking about the Full STO? It has dropped to depths not seen in 4 years.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 6, 2012 22:34:27 GMT -8
Just the MACD-h as I was saying. Those overbought/oversold indicators? Well, yeah, can't get much more oversold.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Nov 6, 2012 22:35:58 GMT -8
Nice charts and comments, but lets face it, if the market valued Apple/AAPL the same way it did everyone else AAPL would be a $1,500 stock MINIMUM, and the likes of Amazon, Facebook and Google would be Penny stocks. The market hasn't been interested in nice charts/comments regarding AAPL for several years. I doubt that is going to change any time soon. I am no longer interested in fundamentals or TA. From now on, I am investing (or not) in what I perceive the big boys are doing, and where they are doing it. Gregg do tell: how are you going to develop and/or get evidence on your new strategy? Myself I am leaning heavily towards the facts that show sentiment drives the price most of the time. The facts are all there and I am tired of beating myself up again and again with the same questions (i.e why aren't we higher when just about every single FA factor is so much more favorable than just about anything else in the market). The question is how to measure sentiment? How to use a measure that is repeatable most (not all) of the time? In the past and right now I simply wait till the financials to prove the FA right and piling up cash. It's working but I sure wish I had better visibility into stock price changes that result in some pretty big swings in my active account because the FA seems to have so little to do with it. I have done this long enough to know selling at the absolute high and absolute low is not possible and to get great gains I don't need to. But I really wish I had seen this 100+ drop coming. TA helps but I get the impression most TA advocates are in a similar boat.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 22:39:30 GMT -8
Just the MACD-h as I was saying. Those overbought/oversold indicators? Well, yeah, can't get much more oversold. Mav, its not at zero, it can go lower.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Nov 6, 2012 22:39:49 GMT -8
Well Gregg just read your post right after I posted mine. That's helpful and thanks. As far as the macro effect in the election: for now at least the uncertainty of who is over and IMHO that will result in some positive action in the overall market (until the next issue emerges :-))
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 23:22:07 GMT -8
I just watched the video of the iphone launching in India. Wow. Maybe Apple can actually get a decent market share there, that translates to a lot of unit if they can garner just 5% this coming year.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 6, 2012 23:38:19 GMT -8
Our ATH has changed to 701.86. That is more than 2.65 because the old ATH was 705.+ I thought?
|
|
|
Post by applemuncher on Nov 6, 2012 23:54:24 GMT -8
Nice charts and comments, but lets face it, if the market valued Apple/AAPL the same way it did everyone else AAPL would be a $1,500 stock MINIMUM, and the likes of Amazon, Facebook and Google would be Penny stocks. The market hasn't been interested in nice charts/comments regarding AAPL for several years. I doubt that is going to change any time soon. I am no longer interested in fundamentals or TA. From now on, I am investing (or not) in what I perceive the big boys are doing, and where they are doing it. Hi Gregg. Why should Apple be $1500 today? And why should Google, Amazon, or Facebook be penny stocks? I believe the market sets the value of a company based on discounted future net earnings plus existing assets. Sure, Facebook is not making much money now, but the market believes they have the ability to make a ton of money in the future. The same argument can be made for Amazon. You are correct when you state that the market is not interested in nice charts or comments regarding Apple. The market IS interested in future earnings. The market has some questions regarding Apple's ability to continue delivering the same level of fantastic earnings in the future as they have in the past. A few examples of these questions are related to Apple's ability to produce revolutionary (not just evolutionary) products without Steve Jobs, and the competition catching, or even passing, Apple. A lack of innovation or increased competition will hurt sales, gross margin, and profits. My hunch is that, like most of us, you are just frustrated with Apple's decline over the past month. You don't really intend to in invest in what you perceive the "big boys" are doing, and where they are doing it. Do you?
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Nov 6, 2012 23:57:01 GMT -8
FWIW ... Futures are green.
Looks like the only political party the market dislikes is uncertainty .
Onward and upward.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Nov 7, 2012 0:24:24 GMT -8
I believe the market sets the value of a company based on discounted future net earnings plus existing assets. Sure, Facebook is not making much money now, but the market believes they have the ability to make a ton of money in the future. The same argument can be made for Amazon. My frustration is there is ample evidence of AAPLs future growth over the next year at least. If I read/listen Tia Conf call from AMZN, FB or Goog (specifically Android growth) there is zero empirical evidence and future claims will happen and actually empirical evidence to prove even if they can sell anything they can't actually do it at a profit. Have a look at AMZN growth forecast and anyone show me how they are going to get to next years EPS. Show me how Goog is going to actually make profit on Android. And finally show me how FB is going to make more and more top line and bottom line with Mobile than desktop when desktop is declining and it's a hard well known fact advertisers pay less for mobile. This is why I am frustrated and put it that the claims Wall St cares about future earnings using any level of diligence on numbers does not support the facts.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 0:25:24 GMT -8
A2+, that was directed at me for my previous post. Apparently, my post was so mean that Nate immediately unsubscribed. I didn't boot him. One less to ignore.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 0:39:40 GMT -8
well so much for Andy Zaky's prediction last week that Apple will go back to $600 by Tuesday... Andy, like this rest of us (including me) has been watching the wrong thing FOREVER. The people that make money doing this don't want us to make any. I know, sounds conspiratorial, and until recently I would have agreed. Think about it, we all know the buzz words, have read all the books, and can interpret Quiji, I mean Charts with the best of them. And still the big boys get our money. That's the point of retail accounts. It's just like Texas Dolly said, "Respect, the newcomer. If not for them (bringing new money into the game), we'd get no where exchanging money/winnings with ourselves. We are the suppliers of new money for the big boys, those with the resources (not charts) that tell them a Company is going to make its numbers, or not. They love the Zakys of the world. They make the job of taking money from us easier. We can only follow and pick up crumbs. So I'm going to follow. From now on I'm going to be watching the big boys, trying to ascertain their next shift in dementia, SO I CAN FOLLOW.
|
|