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Post by spoonman on Nov 7, 2012 10:25:33 GMT -8
5 year historical PE. you can really see the compression over the past year of AAPL. Also that PE low back in 2008 looks painful. I hope we don't get to that level. That was pre ipad, pre ipad mini, pre smart phones being dominant must have items and right after the credit crisis. ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/pe_ratio
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Post by appledoc on Nov 7, 2012 10:27:37 GMT -8
It is. P/E was 12.62 at the January lows. It was 12.73 at the May lows. As a followup then if we do not find support at 557 which APPROXIMATELY coincides with the Jan low PE, we are in deep DO-DO. Personally, I think ex-cash P/E is a better marker to use. That was 9.67 in January, which gives us 554.90.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 10:30:39 GMT -8
+1 IMHO, this is capitulation. Folks will attribute this to xxx, foresee lower prices ahead, and fold. Then, we'll go up. I also want to call this capitulation. Darn this picture getting clouded by the election and Europe and stupid Foxconn talk. Shit like that has been around since the beginning of time. Everybody wants a reason. Everybody wants rules to invest by. The REASON is so very simple. There are no rules. Somebody is making money taking the action they did. That their action causes others to lose is of no consequence to the action takers. Buy it and forget it. Understanding why a million traders did something is beyond comprehension.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 7, 2012 10:36:42 GMT -8
This board is becoming difficult to read. Some of you need to get a grip on things. + 1. +1 - We are on track to becoming uninhabitable here. Sad to see after the great decorum we had going shortly after the move.
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Post by lance on Nov 7, 2012 10:38:38 GMT -8
APPLE has not lost 3 facebooks worth of market cap, more than 1 intels worth of market cap, 4 texas instruments worth of market cap, 30 rimm worth of market cap, 1 BP (ADR) worth of market cap, 8 Dell's worth of market cap, more than 1/2 of goog or msft worth of market cap. Justification map app problems, "supply" constraints ie selling lots of product, Gross margin compression which is overblown, we went up too fast even though the stock hasn't kept up with growth for years and is cheaper than nearly all stocks on the market, and competition that to me other than Samsung in smartphones are out too lunch. This all occurred over 7 straight weeks where apple released all new products and provided its highest guided EPS and Revenue in history. Did I miss something or does this actually make sense to anyone? hahaha
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Post by macoz on Nov 7, 2012 10:40:33 GMT -8
Is there a legal (or tax) reason preventing AAPL from making a strategic decision to buy back a large (say, $10-20 billion) quantity of shares in the near term? Otherwise, I have to think that that would be fairly tempting for them right now... FWIW this is taken from the transcript of the Earnings call: In August, we entered into a rule 10b5-1 compliant accelerated share repurchase program, with the financial institution to purchase out the $2 billion of Apple stock during fiscal year ’13.
In addition to shares purchased through the accelerated share repurchase program, we may also purchase shares in open market transaction in compliance with our applicable securities laws.So it appears that Apple may do a share buy-back. How much and when I have no idea.
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Post by lance on Nov 7, 2012 10:43:11 GMT -8
now instead of not sorry*
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 7, 2012 10:43:33 GMT -8
This board is becoming difficult to read. Some of you need to get a grip on things. + 1. +1
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 10:44:47 GMT -8
Does a cliff EVER sound like something a politician should seriously say that we should go over.. but yea hes off his rocker obviously, even though still chairman... I just feel this market/AAPL badly NEEDS the indication this isnt a possibility and POTUS is on top of it/house leaders. two more years of a lame duck president out in left, or two years of making some central compromises to get work done Trying not to be too political. Sure he is not the only politcian to make the case for going over No politics on this board, please.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 7, 2012 10:45:58 GMT -8
maybe the way to play it is think like an Evil Overlord then.
If I was an EO, I knew that every single person said the 610-615 range 100day was strong support, and thus would have pillaged their accounts as I took it further down.
If I was an EO, I knew that every single person called the 585-590 range 200 SMA/DMA whatever as bottom, and thus would have raped their accounts more by taking it further down.
If I was an EO, I'd know that a blowout quarter is coming just like last holiday season, and I'd use the supply fears to manfiest and do whatever I could to hold this down till the last minute possible, stealing as much premium as possible, before seesawing and beginning my murderfest on the shorts.
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Post by v10king on Nov 7, 2012 10:47:14 GMT -8
Hey guys, I know everyone is freaking out at this point as its hard not to. Our beloved AAPL has hit a 12.7 PE today which is unbelievable considering all the catalysts that should propel us to 1000 next year. I hate this as much as everyone, I will probably as I always do not come around as much and not check the accounts for some time until AAPL stabilizes. The good thing is I am all up in 2014 LEAPS so I have time.
On a positive note, my company finally added the iphone 5 to their mobility catalog and I was able to order it on 10/30. This is ATT wireless and I found myself checking the status of the order which said it was backordered in the status page. I checked today, and its off backorder and pending shipment already. 7 days. This is a black iphone 5 16GB. So inventory is getting better. Take care everyone.
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Post by kloot on Nov 7, 2012 10:48:28 GMT -8
The board authorized them only to purchase enough shares to cover employee option grants. Do not expect any support from their repurchase program. Correct. The point of the buy back is to reduce dilution caused by employee grants. they stated on the earnings call that they can buy back shares in open market operations.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 7, 2012 10:49:29 GMT -8
Filled my bid for more Apr 13 690/715 BCSs.
And I'm pretty much out of cash now. Next move is hopefully to sell my Jan 13 spreads (550/560 and 575/600). Will roll them further out if I have to, but I suspect I won't.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 7, 2012 10:49:45 GMT -8
[+1 - We are on track to becoming uninhabitable here. Sad to see after the great decorum we had going shortly after the move. Meh, give it a day (or two) to quiet down...
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Post by johng on Nov 7, 2012 10:53:40 GMT -8
snip.......... On a positive note, my company finally added the iphone 5 to their mobility catalog and I was able to order it on 10/30. This is ATT wireless and I found myself checking the status of the order which said it was backordered in the status page. I checked today, and its off backorder and pending shipment already. 7 days. This is a black iphone 5 16GB. So inventory is getting better. Take care everyone. Thanks for that update on your ip5 ship delay. That indeed is very encouraging news. FWIW, Vz is currently indicating a 9 day ship delay while the mothership is indicating a 3-4 week delay. I'm not sure why Apple is indicating such a LONG delay when its two main providers are less than two weeks. cheers JohnG
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Post by erictheoracle on Nov 7, 2012 10:56:46 GMT -8
Riots in Greece. Our markets fell as people rotated out of equities into fixed until markets in the EU closed. At that point trader began filling their inventories back up.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 7, 2012 10:57:47 GMT -8
AAPL seems to be being hugely pressured on all fronts today. Wonder if Foxconn's CEO's comments aren't responsible for at least 10 points of that.
I would be absolutely shocked if Tim Cook isn't thinking about starting some automated manufacturing assembly, building new factories to handle the extra capacity, even long-range and/or pilot plans to bring some level of manufacturing/assembly elsewhere.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 11:00:20 GMT -8
Up until the earnings call, we could always count on a retrace during the downtrend, during which we would pop 20 points or so to the upside.
However, after the earnings call, this pop has been non-existent. Even on Monday, when we had the great news about the 3M IPads sold in the launch week-end, we had no strength. It seems the guidance regarding Gross Margins (36%) and EPS ($11.75) really took the starch out of this stock, and barring any kind of information note from an analyst (Gene Munster, where are you?) saying that the supply picture has been dramatically improved, or that Hon Hai has gotten very proficient at making the IPhone 5, we might be like this until January.
And that story this morning about the suit from Hon Hai saying the IPhone 5 is very difficult to manufacture, many quality issues, can't meet demand, etc. , which is part of the reason we are down big today, needs to be "fixed".
["Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Chairman Terry Gou said Wednesday that production of Apple Inc.'s AAPL -3.95% iPhone 5 is difficult because of its design and that his contract manufacturing company still cannot meet the quality standards of its largest customer.
"We still can't meet Apple's quality standards (on the iPhone 5)," Mr. Gou told reporters Wednesday. "Market demand is very strong, but we just can't really fulfill Apple's requests."
Actual shipments of iPhone 5's are far below Apple's requests, he said, without elaborating. Mr. Gou added that he was in China a few days ago to give moral support to workers there."]
C'mon, Terry.
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Post by Rupert on Nov 7, 2012 11:02:17 GMT -8
Just checked my email and I have no email from Jason's Economic Timing Report today. Last position from the 5th was 40% Jan 700 and 60% cash. After today I'm moving to Colorado!!! He sent one out this AM, moved to all cash, looking to buy back in when things start turning up a bit. Still nothing and my subscription is current. I just emailed him. Just to check are we talking about Economic Trading Report?
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Post by rosie on Nov 7, 2012 11:03:54 GMT -8
+1 - We are on track to becoming uninhabitable here. Sad to see after the great decorum we had going shortly after the move. +1 it is difficult to think or learn in a negative, disrespectful environment.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 11:03:57 GMT -8
maybe the way to play it is think like an Evil Overlord then. If I was an EO, I knew that every single person said the 610-615 range 100day was strong support, and thus would have pillaged their accounts as I took it further down. If I was an EO, I knew that every single person called the 585-590 range 200 SMA/DMA whatever as bottom, and thus would have raped their accounts more by taking it further down. If I was an EO, I'd know that a blowout quarter is coming just like last holiday season, and I'd use the supply fears to manfiest and do whatever I could to hold this down till the last minute possible, stealing as much premium as possible, before seesawing and beginning my murderfest on the shorts. I think we are aware of that, terps, since Ms. IPad has been speaking along these lines for a long time. My concern is when does this become a "broken" stock, where the technical damage is almost irreparable? Would it then be up to the fundamentals to fix everything?
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Post by darrenhd on Nov 7, 2012 11:04:17 GMT -8
Up until the earnings call, we could always count on a retrace during the downtrend, during which we would pop 20 points or so to the upside. However, after the earnings call, this pop has been non-existent. Even on Monday, when we had the great news about the 3M IPads sold in the launch week-end, we had no strength. It seems the guidance regarding Gross Margins (36%) and EPS ($11.75) really took the starch out of this stock, and barring any kind of information note from an analyst (Gene Munster, where are you?) saying that the supply picture has been dramatically improved, or that Hon Hai has gotten very proficient at making the IPhone 5, we might be like this until January. And that story this morning about the suit from Hon Hai saying the IPhone 5 is very difficult to manufacture, many quality issues, can't meet demand, etc. , which is part of the reason we are down big today, needs to be "fixed". I personally don't see any catalyst for the stock until the next earnings in January. So we may be in the basement until we approach earnings. I am really hoping we get some sort of upward momentum until then but it could be quite choppy in the markets with all the macro-economic issues such as Europe and the Fiscal Cliff. So basically I'm pretty much sitting on my hands with a hopefully-sort-of-praying stance that we will get through this and go back up... I've learned before that you cannot predict the bottom and if you think it's the bottom be don't be surprised for the stock to fall even further than you could have ever imagined. At this point I wouldn't rule anything out.
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Post by spoonman on Nov 7, 2012 11:05:28 GMT -8
On a positive note there are definitely a lot of iphones in stock you just need to reserve it at 10pm. So they are selling a ton every day. I just got my iphone 5 in white yesterday. Ordered it the night before. Turn around time was 12 hours for in store pick up vs. 5 weeks for delivery! In the grand central apple store you could see the iphones on the shelf. Hundreds of them with people in line to pick them up. I went at lunch time and so did a lot of people.
This whole 10pm reserve for in store pickup thing is there way to make buying the phone predictable which is why you can't go into a store and buy one. They are all reserved. I felt comfortable knowing that and seeing that.
the downside is people don't know the 10pm thing or don't live near an apple store, get inpatient and buy something else. 5 weeks is a long time to wait.
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Post by spoonman on Nov 7, 2012 11:07:57 GMT -8
Up until the earnings call, we could always count on a retrace during the downtrend, during which we would pop 20 points or so to the upside. However, after the earnings call, this pop has been non-existent. Even on Monday, when we had the great news about the 3M IPads sold in the launch week-end, we had no strength. It seems the guidance regarding Gross Margins (36%) and EPS ($11.75) really took the starch out of this stock, and barring any kind of information note from an analyst (Gene Munster, where are you?) saying that the supply picture has been dramatically improved, or that Hon Hai has gotten very proficient at making the IPhone 5, we might be like this until January. And that story this morning about the suit from Hon Hai saying the IPhone 5 is very difficult to manufacture, many quality issues, can't meet demand, etc. , which is part of the reason we are down big today, needs to be "fixed". I personally don't see any catalyst for the stock until the next earnings in January. So we may be in the basement until we approach earnings. I am really hoping we get some sort of upward momentum until then but it could be quite choppy in the markets with all the macro-economic issues such as Europe and the Fiscal Cliff. So basically I'm pretty much sitting on my hands with a hopefully-sort-of-praying stance that we will get through this and go back up... I've learned before that you cannot predict the bottom and if you think it's the bottom be don't be surprised for the stock to fall even further than you could have ever imagined. At this point I wouldn't rule anything out. only problem with next earnings is we are predicted to lose i think over 2 dollars of EPS if apple's guidance comes true. Worst case scenario is it takes until the March or the June quarter to get momentum back as gross margin compression eases up and we start increasing EPS again.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 7, 2012 11:08:13 GMT -8
Hi all - remember how bad 666 seemed a while ago?
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Post by appledoc on Nov 7, 2012 11:09:54 GMT -8
maybe the way to play it is think like an Evil Overlord then. If I was an EO, I knew that every single person said the 610-615 range 100day was strong support, and thus would have pillaged their accounts as I took it further down. If I was an EO, I knew that every single person called the 585-590 range 200 SMA/DMA whatever as bottom, and thus would have raped their accounts more by taking it further down. If I was an EO, I'd know that a blowout quarter is coming just like last holiday season, and I'd use the supply fears to manfiest and do whatever I could to hold this down till the last minute possible, stealing as much premium as possible, before seesawing and beginning my murderfest on the shorts. I think we are aware of that, terps, since Ms. IPad has been speaking along these lines for a long time. My concern is when does this become a "broken" stock, where the technical damage is almost irreparable? Would it then be up to the fundamentals to fix everything? Since we've slashed through every meaningful MA since 705, I'd say we are a technically broken stock and now have to rely on fundamentals. That's why I've been calling for the bottom somewhere around P/E 13, P/C 4.5 and ex-cash P/E 10. We're below all three right now, but history says we won't be down there long. Just my opinion. For whatever it's worth, I made one very uneducated BTFD around 660 and my second BTFD around 560.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 7, 2012 11:14:15 GMT -8
Read up on Oppenheimer and his guidance propensities.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 7, 2012 11:15:44 GMT -8
It's a curious situation. The need for AAPL to find footing in fundamentals. The need to hold key levels on the way back up to get other buyers involved.
But with each big downwave, we get more experience and a chance to collect more data points.
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 7, 2012 11:22:23 GMT -8
all gains this year gone. ): very sad day indeed. will just have to be patient and try not to look at the stock for the next month or so... i'm long only but still sucks big time. was in the same boat last year, not much different...
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Post by darrenhd on Nov 7, 2012 11:32:20 GMT -8
all gains this year gone. ): very sad day indeed. will just have to be patient and try not to look at the stock for the next month or so... i'm long only but still sucks big time. was in the same boat last year, not much different... Down 4% now as I write this. I'd like to see more volume though...let's get this over with!
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