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Post by prazan on Nov 8, 2012 20:09:58 GMT -8
Horace Dediu has posted another podcast, #62. In this one, he talks about his reaction to the iPad mini, the 3 million sales figure, and his take on the device's sales potential. Good stuff. The highlight of my day, walking my newborn while listening to it.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 20:11:25 GMT -8
Why does a herd stampede? It might be falling rock. It might be the smell of a lion or a wolf. Or it might be that one critter decides it's time to bolt, which scared the one next to it, and so on, until the entire herd is running panicked. I have yet to read anything that logically explains this selloff, except the herd theory. Cobra posits that we saw an exhaustion bar today, which might indicate a rebound soon. Followed, however, by another leg down. The herd is being shot. Someone decided to thin the herd out. As for a rebound and another leg down. Makes sense there will be a retest of wherever this madness stops. I am past exhaustion. There was a serious fight in AAPL today. 37 million shares and the bears won. As always in battle, the most committed wins. The market did not like the results from the election, here we are. I hope tomorrow there is at least the appearance of working to come to some kind of agreement.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 8, 2012 20:18:29 GMT -8
Can we drop this? No one is denying the market went down after the election. Was this response really necessary. Fawk huh?
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 8, 2012 20:19:27 GMT -8
The chum is most definitely in the water, who's chum is the question. I do believe the limp are being shaken out. A stern backbone could prove to be quite profitable in the next 90 days. I do not see relief till an all time P/E is breached. Too much chum, and too many with a line in the waters. We are knocking on that door, now.
I am aghast at the pure, unadulterated, bias, on the chummer's part. Mind boggling.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 8, 2012 20:33:41 GMT -8
Why would there be? Wash-sale rules are there to prevent you from realizing a loss and taking your deduction early. The gov't has no problem whatsoever with you realizing a gain and paying taxes on it early. There isn't any such rule for gains. And would everyone please refrain from posting Rocco Pendejo's nonsense? He already admitted he can't trade Apple, and he is clearly clueless on Apple fundamentals, so why would anyone think him relevant? It is truly unbelievable this guy has gotten so much attention. I'd love to debate his dumb ass on CNBC about Apple and expose him. Idiots like Pendejo make me want to start my own blog. Rocco PENDEJO! I nominate this for post of the week. Genius.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 20:35:36 GMT -8
Let's just try NOT to bring up inveterate AAPL antagonists whenever possible. Bears without a clue...self-explanatory.
Also, I learned something new in Spanish today. (Viva) Knowledge!™
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 20:39:37 GMT -8
Ms. iPad, how is your trading group doing? You mentioned they don't look at news, only TA. One would think TA is saying GTFO. But you also mentioned someone named Avi said early Nov would be back up the truck time, does he still think so? Avi backed the truck up and it fell in a hole. I guess that depends on what Avi advised at the time. No one's really buying, and tens of millions of shares (maybe a couple hundred million?) have already bailed. The selloff will slow down at some point, as it has to. When it does, look carefully for inflection points.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 20:42:45 GMT -8
Ms. iPad, how is your trading group doing? You mentioned they don't look at news, only TA. One would think TA is saying GTFO. But you also mentioned someone named Avi said early Nov would be back up the truck time, does he still think so? Avi just lost his wife to cancer, so his focus has not been AAPL. That said, his downside target range, 138.2-161.8% of the APR-MAY downwave, is: 515-544. (I joined his group late last spring, and by summer, he had 680-710 target for the last upwave -- which I did not believe after the JUL'12 miss -- to be followed by 515-544 for this downwave -- which I did not believe after the last upwave.) This is Avi's site: www.elliottwavetrader.net/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 20:47:34 GMT -8
The downwave (the worst AAPL's ever seen by points...that's still tough to comprehend) was assisted by a lot of convenient factors, but a call's still a call and when it's right enough, you have to at least respect it.
Even though I don't understand, or particularly like, Elliott Wave theory because of so many who interpret charts to reflect a point of view, rather than actually try and be objective about it (if that's possible).
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 8, 2012 20:48:41 GMT -8
Was this response really necessary. Fawk huh? I get the part about people not wanting to discuss politics in this thread. All Mark stated was his opinion that FTR, the market is not going down to due to the election. He is not stating that he likes/dislikes one party versus the other. He is stating an opinion on what he feels is not causing the most recent move. That's it. That's all. Nothing less. Nothing more. To respond with "can we drop it" for the slightest reference that was made just strikes me as overdone. All IMHO and nothing more. That's it. That's all. Nothing less. Nothing more.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 20:54:04 GMT -8
For the record, I said a couple pages ago: "Gridlock has the market scared. Fine. I hope against hope that something concrete and credit-rating-neutral happens. Moving on." Maybe a little "can we drop it?", I dunno. I've got no problem with civil political discussion even in Intraday. Only problem is, it never seems to work so I don't even bother.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 20:54:19 GMT -8
The downwave (the worst AAPL's ever seen by points...that's still tough to comprehend) was assisted by a lot of convenient factors, but a call's still a call and when it's right enough, you have to at least respect it. Even though I don't understand, or particularly like, Elliott Wave theory because of so many who interpret charts to reflect a point of view, rather than actually try and be objective about it (if that's possible). Elliott Wave is damn hard, and subjective, and headache inducing; but Avi is an awesome, 100% objective teacher. He's the only EW pro I've ever seen nail AAPL.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 20:55:44 GMT -8
That's why Gilburt's opinion is one I try to give some weight, despite my immense EW skepticism.
(Other try-to-tell-it-like-it-is-EW types like you and Mace dammit I'm not supposed to type his name included, of course.)
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 21:02:40 GMT -8
That's why Gilburt's opinion is one I try to give some weight, despite my immense EW skepticism. (Other try-to-tell-it-like-it-is-EW types like you and Mace dammit I'm not supposed to type his name included, of course.) LOL, Mav! You don't have to give my EW opinions any weight beyond WAG...I'm still just a little grasshopper.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 8, 2012 21:06:14 GMT -8
I get the part about people not wanting to discuss politics in this thread. All Mark stated was his opinion that FTR, the market is not going down to due to the election. He is not stating that he likes/dislikes one party versus the other. He is stating an opinion on what he feels is not causing the most recent move. That's it. That's all. Nothing less. Nothing more. To respond with "can we drop it" for the slightest reference that was made just strikes me as overdone. All IMHO and nothing more. That's it. That's all. Nothing less. Nothing more. Ah, now I understand your comment. You're confused. Mark is adamant that the election results triggered a drop. His comment was actually a backhanded snark at those who believe otherwise, and his continuing to push back at those who disagreed with him, but long ago dropped the subject, has grown tiresome.
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 8, 2012 21:14:38 GMT -8
It’s too bad that Gregg decided to leave this board. I’d love to have a beer with him sometime. He has some very interesting ideas about how the stock market works.
However, I have a problem when people post “facts” without backing them up. For example, when he stated that institutions have been accumulating Apple shares over the past two weeks, we deserve some type of proof for this statement. My personal opinion is that the stock could not have dropped so far, so fast, without institutions being a net seller of Apple shares. Or, when he says that Apple should be $1500 a share today, or Amazon and Facebook should be penny stocks, we deserve a reasoned analysis of his position. Unfortunately, Gregg too often said that he had already explained these positions before, and implied that we were just too stupid to understand his ideas. Also, if someone has figured out how to tell when institutions are buying or selling Apple, it would be great if they would share that information with the board. (If someone understands how he knows this, please post the information in a link). One other thing…I never did understand how Apple’s stock price would decline when Apple missed their “internal numbers”.
I know I am new here. I respect this board. But I am looking for information regarding Apple. It might be positive, it might be negative. I just want honest opinions, and “facts” backed up with links or data. I have to admit that I feel a bit like a bull in a china shop. Please let me know if my posts are not welcome. I would be happy to follow Gregg and exit stage left. But I will continue to read the board, and I’m sure Gregg is too.
Let’s hope Apple has a big up day tomorrow.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 21:15:31 GMT -8
Look. Everyone's got raw nerves.
MB and mad have known each other a while. You were both "Class of '07" on that OTHER board, right?
We need to stay cool, yes, but some venting is understandable. iPad will sort it out if needed.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 21:16:58 GMT -8
(...)My salient point is, that all political bent towards the effort of investing is wholly relevant, and should be allowed under the intraday thread's, if salient and cogent, and not dispersive/dirisive.(...) IF. Works for me. If not: dungeon.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 21:17:46 GMT -8
"Be sure to back it up"? I remember when _I_ told someone that. Visions of wine...or whine...or cider...oy...
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 8, 2012 21:28:57 GMT -8
I get the part about people not wanting to discuss politics in this thread. All Mark stated was his opinion that FTR, the market is not going down to due to the election. He is not stating that he likes/dislikes one party versus the other. He is stating an opinion on what he feels is not causing the most recent move. That's it. That's all. Nothing less. Nothing more. To respond with "can we drop it" for the slightest reference that was made just strikes me as overdone. All IMHO and nothing more. That's it. That's all. Nothing less. Nothing more. Ah, now I understand your comment. You're confused. Mark is adamant that the election results triggered a drop. His comment was actually a backhanded snark at those who believe otherwise, and his continuing to push back at those who disagreed with him, but long ago dropped the subject, has grown tiresome. Yep.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 8, 2012 21:31:38 GMT -8
Has anyone heard from phoebebear since Sandy? Last I heard she was hunkering down.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 21:41:15 GMT -8
Time to game plan, people!
Futures are mildly optimistic but we know better than to trust that.
S&P very close to its 50% retracement of the 1278ish-1465ish June-to-mid-September peak move (which, according to the rules of retracement as I understand them, isn't a bad sign, since there's still the 1350 or so level for the 61.8% retrace)
AAPL had unusually high volume but no signs of shaking off the selling pressure, with the 516-ish and 524-ish levels (div-adjusted from the 530 close/522 intraday low) as nearby points of reference to the downside. Actually, the 530/524ish level is pretty notable because it was a mini-support on March 6-7 as well as the closing price line in the sand for May 17-18. Aside from that, 534/529ish div-adjusted is a reference point as 50% retracement of the 52-week-low to ATH, so I guess I'll be paying extra attention if AAPL is anywhere in the 525ish-530 band.
Where do we go from here?
Myself, until I see an actual intraday bull flag in AAPL, my first trade would actually be AMZN to the downside once AMZN tries to bounce.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 21:43:48 GMT -8
Lstream, did a quick check and it looks like she logged in last afternoon.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Nov 8, 2012 22:24:23 GMT -8
Mark, That only reflects non IRA, tax non deferred accounts. If you trade in IRA/SEP/ROTH accounts, there are no tax ramifications. Good point! For tax-deferred account, the taxes may be even higher, though you do get to benefit from the deferral somewhat. By the time we withdraw from those tax-deferred accounts, it is very likely that tax rates will be quite a bit higher. Especially for those with higher incomes.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 8, 2012 22:34:58 GMT -8
And would everyone please refrain from posting Rocco Pendejo's nonsense? Wait, I must be slow today. Is Pendejo his real name? OMG! Oopsie! My bad!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 8, 2012 22:37:39 GMT -8
Good point! For tax-deferred account, the taxes may be even higher, though you do get to benefit from the deferral somewhat. By the time we withdraw from those tax-deferred accounts, it is very likely that tax rates will be quite a bit higher. Especially for those with higher incomes. I'm very happy that I rolled my IRA into a ROTH back in 2008. It was hard to pay the taxes on it, but well worth it, especially while it was crushed in the crash. Now it's 5 (well, after today maybe 4) times larger, and we'll never have to pay taxes on it again. That's helpful if rates go up, but also if we ever wanted to move back to a high-tax state like CA. The next trick will be moving at least part of my option trading to that account. If I can keep my overall portfolio equally weighted, but put part to most of the short term trades there, it can work out very well. And with being able to pull out the initial funds, or use a SEPP, we can still tap the funds long before traditional retirement age if we choose.
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 8, 2012 23:26:28 GMT -8
Just for fun, I'd like to make a few predictions.
Tomorrow morning: The market will rebound in the morning and Apple will be up. Then at 10 a.m. EST President Obama will announce that he would be willing to lower the tax rate for people making less than $250K. But he will insist that the tax rate for people making more than $250K increase. He will push for his “jobs bill” that will hire more teachers and fire fighters. There will be no new ideas from him. The market, and Apple, will tank after his speech.
Tomorrow afternoon to January 22: Obama and congress will fight until late December. Then a debt limit increase will be tied to extending the existing tax rates for for everyone. It is going to be choppy trading for the next several weeks.
The good news is that I am happy to see iPhone 5 availability getting better. The Q1 2013 EPS will exceed analyst expectations. Apple will be will above $650 by mid-February. The trick will be how to play the chop between now and when Q1 earnings are announced.
All of this is my WAG.
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Post by kloot on Nov 8, 2012 23:29:45 GMT -8
I originally posted this on the night of Jun 20, 2011 on the old Mac Observer boards. I think it's as true now, as it was then. Just a reminder that we've seen this before. Posted: 20 June 2011 05:59 PM In trying to put this recent AAPL swoon into perspective, two classic Warren Buffet quotes come to mind. The first: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it’s a weighing machine.†I’m not a big believer in technical analysis, but I am a believer that stocks trade with momentum and sometimes this momentum can create some crazy valuations. Sometimes it’s to the upside in a bubble, and sometimes it’s to the downside. It doesn’t matter that AAPL is severely undervalued at $315, all that matters on any given day is who is more aggressive, the buyers or the sellers. When the sellers are more aggressive, the price goes down. What’s important to remember is that the overwhelming majority of trading volume consists of people with very short time horizons (days or weeks) or extremely short time horizons (minutes or hours). They don’t care about AAPL’s earnings in 2012, all they care about are the odds they’ll be able to buy AAPL at a lower price than they sell it, and vice versa. It’s a high stakes game of chicken that goes on in pretty much every liquid trading market in the world. The end result is pricing that fluctuates wildly and on rare occasions creates opportunities of extremely mispriced valuations. But as Buffet said, while this can happen in the short run, in the long run a security’s true value will always be revealed. The tough part is we don’t know how long these short term momentum swings will last, and how far they’ll go. This AAPL swoon could end tomorrow or it could end three months from now. It could be a gradual flattening out followed by a slow, consistent, rise, or it could be a sharp sudden jump that comes out of nowhere and never looks back. All we know is that in the long run, AAPL’s stock price will reflect its underlying value. Now for the second quote, which is probably Buffett’s most famous quote of all: “To be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.†While this swoon in AAPL can be downright depressing and even a little scary, the glass-half-full perspective is to look at this as an amazing opportunity to buy AAPL. Granted, that’s not much solace to someone who’s already gone all-in from $350, but even for those people, we can look at AAPL right now and know we own one of the best bargains we’ve ever seen in the stock market. well said.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 9, 2012 0:38:20 GMT -8
I'm very happy that I rolled my IRA into a ROTH back in 2008. It was hard to pay the taxes on it, but well worth it, especially while it was crushed in the crash. Now it's 5 (well, after today maybe 4) times larger, and we'll never have to pay taxes on it again. That's helpful if rates go up, but also if we ever wanted to move back to a high-tax state like CA. Never say never. Most people (foolishly) have not taken advantage of Roths, which means Roth holders are a small constituency, and eventually, the mob may show up with their torches and pitchforks.
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