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Post by tofdriver on Nov 8, 2012 8:11:50 GMT -8
Ex-cash P/E hit 9.36. Lower than the 2008 lows. Amazing. P/C hit 4.23. Which since April 2009 is only bested by a 4.19 last fall. Yep. Technical gone, fundamentals gone... Irrational market burned me... May take five years those compensate my losses... May occupy wall street myself ;-)
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Post by The Big Toe on Nov 8, 2012 8:15:36 GMT -8
What is the inverse of "parabolic"?
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Post by nocturno on Nov 8, 2012 8:16:54 GMT -8
What is the inverse of "parabolic"? Free fall.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 8, 2012 8:26:22 GMT -8
At this point P/E or fundamentals don't matter much. Once we broke certain levels and entered bear market territory, AAPL went almost into free fall. I understand that. But at some point you have to look at this and say WHAT THE F, can I make money on this stock or not? And looking at the fundamentals, how on earth can you say no? Just my opinion. But I get why this is happening.
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Nov 8, 2012 8:31:52 GMT -8
I am now out of dry powder except for savings that I very conservatively invest and hold for an imminent retirement. I am trying to stay disciplined and not dip into my "protected" savings to make further bets on AAPL. But the urge to jeopardize my savings is becoming unbearable at these prices!
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 8:36:32 GMT -8
What is the inverse of "parabolic"? We have just witnessed a 7 week Cilobarap move
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Post by macziggy on Nov 8, 2012 8:37:48 GMT -8
The reality is that Black Friday is two weeks away and that ushers in the Holiday season which is Apple's strongest season of the year. How can this stock fall so far with that sitting right in front of us? Don't huge profits mean anything anymore? Or do people actually think Apple has not managed the supply side well enough to profit from all that demand?
Then there is the huge China iPhone breakout in December.
I know the market is forward thinking, but, there's a lot of profit for this company. The no-OMG-new-product is just absolute BS. When has Apple ever pre announced a new product?
This is the backlash from the mistakes Tim Cook and Apple have made in the map issue and quality-control issues with the iPhone 5. And Cook's "apology". Maybe it is a different company now.
I just don't get it.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 8:38:16 GMT -8
I am now out of dry powder except for savings that I very conservatively invest and hold for an imminent retirement. I am trying to stay disciplined and not dip into my "protected" savings to make further bets on AAPL. But the urge to jeopardize my savings is becoming unbearable at these prices! id rather buy at 600 and sell at 650 than buy now with important savings money like that. Never know if you would need it in the near term. Better to kick yourself for not making money than to kick yourself for losing more money. IMO of course.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 8:40:08 GMT -8
The reality is that Black Friday is two weeks away and that ushers in the Holiday season which is Apple's strongest season of the year. How can this stock fall so far with that sitting right in front of us? Don't huge profits mean anything anymore? Or do people actually think Apple has not managed the supply side well enough to profit from all that demand? Then there is the huge China iPhone breakout in December. I know the market is forward thinking, but, there's a lot of profit for this company. The no-OMG-new-product is just absolute BS. When has Apple ever pre announced a new product? This is the backlash from the mistakes Tim Cook and Apple have made in the map issue and quality-control issues with the iPhone 5. And Cook's "apology". Maybe it is a different company now. I just don't get it. I think we all agree with this. The sucky part is just accepting that it doesn't make any sense, and there is nothing we can do about it.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 8:40:17 GMT -8
Agreed. This is the third time I've called capitulation in this move down and of the two previous times, the only thing that had been missing was the transfer of a couple of million shares in 5 minutes. I had thought that prolonged selling of large blocks would have been enough, but now it really does look and smell like it when we overshoot downside targets and everyone craps themselves. +1
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 8, 2012 8:41:06 GMT -8
IPad, your thoughts on where AAPL goes from here?
My gut says we will reach a PE of 12, or approx. $530 before sellers start holding out for higher prices.
Personally, if I get anywhere close to where I was on Sept. 21, I will be exiting stage left at least 75% of my holdings.
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 8, 2012 8:44:39 GMT -8
17+ Mil in the second hour. IF (that is a big IF there guys) we reverse today it will fit the classic capitulation scenario no? Where all those even left standing don't see the upside anytime soon.... I think the day will not end with a wimper: its going up 10 or down 10 more
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 8, 2012 8:45:25 GMT -8
Ex-cash P/E hit 9.36. Lower than the 2008 lows. Not really, because it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. The real low P/E ex cash figures were 7.54 in late 2008 and 6.86 in early 2009. Earnings were understated in 2008/2009 because of the old GAAP rules. Investors knew earnings were being deferred, and analysis was published at the old AFB and elsewhere of how much higher the true earnings were. Finally, Apple restated their earnings once the accounting rules were changed, so we can make very precise comparisons. P/C hit 4.23. Which since April 2009 is only bested by a 4.19 last fall. P/C got as low as 2.5 in late 2008, 2.64 in early 2009, and 3.73 in May 2009.
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Post by alice on Nov 8, 2012 8:47:44 GMT -8
Personally, if I get anywhere close to where I was on Sept. 21, I will be exiting stage left at least 75% of my holdings. I will exit as well.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 8:48:20 GMT -8
IPad, your thoughts on where AAPL goes from here? My gut says we will reach a PE of 12, or approx. $530 before sellers start holding out for higher prices. Personally, if I get anywhere close to where I was on Sept. 21, I will be exiting stage left at least 75% of my holdings. I don't see me ever getting back to Sept 21 levels.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 8:48:40 GMT -8
Terry Gou did NOT cite automation difficulty as a reason why iPhones aren't assembled in the US. www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_38/b4195058423479.htm#p7While that wasn't an iPhone specific comment that _was_ an iPhone-focused article. I think Tim is at least thinking anout this now and then. Don't forget that good old Apple misdirection. Unless you want Apple to make something out of its league or desire to improve (iCar, iFridgeToaster), no isn't necessarily no
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Nov 8, 2012 8:49:50 GMT -8
I am now out of dry powder except for savings that I very conservatively invest and hold for an imminent retirement. I am trying to stay disciplined and not dip into my "protected" savings to make further bets on AAPL. But the urge to jeopardize my savings is becoming unbearable at these prices! id rather buy at 600 and sell at 650 than buy now with important savings money like that. Never know if you would need it in the near term. Better to kick yourself for not making money than to kick yourself for losing more money. IMO of course. Sage advice. The key to discipline is never to get too fearful or too greedy. Of course if everyone thinks like this, it takes awhile for a slide like this to be corrected!
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Post by appledoc on Nov 8, 2012 8:50:05 GMT -8
Ex-cash P/E hit 9.36. Lower than the 2008 lows. Not really, because it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. The real low P/E ex cash figures were 7.54 in late 2008 and 6.86 in early 2009. Earnings were understated in 2008/2009 because of the old GAAP rules. Investors knew earnings were being deferred, and analysis was published at the old AFB and elsewhere of how much higher the true earnings were. Finally, Apple restated their earnings once the accounting rules were changed, so we can make very precise comparisons. P/C hit 4.23. Which since April 2009 is only bested by a 4.19 last fall. P/C got as low as 2.5 in late 2008, 2.64 in early 2009, and 3.73 in May 2009. We've talked about this recently regarding how earnings were being calculated. I'm just going based off what was reported at the time. And yes, my mistake on the P/C low. Looked at my chart wrong. On May 13, 2009 we traded at a P/C of 3.73.
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Post by PikesPique on Nov 8, 2012 8:50:16 GMT -8
To keep things in perspective, I did a quick look at many other big name stocks and found AAPL isn't the only one well off it's 52-week highs.
GOOG - down about 15% AMZN - down about 13% PCLN - down about 18% CMG - down about 40% NFLX - down about 41% BIDU - down about 32% LNKD - down about 21% GRPN - down about 86% GMCR - down about 65% SBUX - down about 17% FB - down about 55% etc.
AAPL - down about 22%
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Post by chiongleng on Nov 8, 2012 8:51:18 GMT -8
retail trader are selling to take profit left on table(scare to death), while big money is buying slowly. in actual fact at this kind of atmosphere, they can accumulate big qty at low price which will not move market much. to their advantage, always.
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Post by alice on Nov 8, 2012 8:51:55 GMT -8
I think it would be helpful to have an Exit Strategy thread.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 8, 2012 8:55:30 GMT -8
To keep things in perspective, I did a quick look at many other big name stocks and found AAPL isn't the only one well off it's 52-week highs. GOOG - down about 15% AMZN - down about 13% PCLN - down about 18% CMG - down about 40% NFLX - down about 41% BIDU - down about 32% LNKD - down about 21% GRPN - down about 86% GMCR - down about 65% SBUX - down about 17% FB - down about 55% etc. AAPL - down about 22% AMZN, CMG, NFLX, GRPN, GMCR and FB have all been ridiculously overvalued this year. Personally, I felt AAPL was getting out of hand on the run up to 700. That makes it even more amazing that I didn't even consider selling some of my holdings. Too blinded by the future I guess. But I wouldn't categorize the run up as ridiculously overvalued like the rest of those that I pointed out.
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Post by PikesPique on Nov 8, 2012 8:56:00 GMT -8
I think it would be helpful to have an Exit Strategy thread. As long as it doesn't involve rope and a chandelier, I concur.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 8:56:28 GMT -8
IPad, your thoughts on where AAPL goes from here? My gut says we will reach a PE of 12, or approx. $530 before sellers start holding out for higher prices. Personally, if I get anywhere close to where I was on Sept. 21, I will be exiting stage left at least 75% of my holdings. Let's see where we are on Monday. Today's flush likely included margin liquidations.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 8:57:14 GMT -8
I think it would be helpful to have an Exit Strategy thread. Free free to start one in the Trading area...
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 8, 2012 8:57:45 GMT -8
To keep things in perspective, I did a quick look at many other big name stocks and found AAPL isn't the only one well off it's 52-week highs. GOOG - down about 15% AMZN - down about 13% PCLN - down about 18% CMG - down about 40% NFLX - down about 41% BIDU - down about 32% LNKD - down about 21% GRPN - down about 86% GMCR - down about 65% SBUX - down about 17% FB - down about 55% etc. AAPL - down about 22% Thanks for the chart ... perspective is everything at a time like this. As painful as this last month has been I have to keep looking at Apple's product line and telling myself it has NEVER been this strong going into the holiday quarter. New everything ... iPad, iPad Mini, iPhone, iMac, Macbook . The stores will be packed starting very soon ..... it will help the stock.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 9:00:13 GMT -8
Overshoot downside targets - which ones? 550ish?
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Post by hellojapan on Nov 8, 2012 9:00:55 GMT -8
Looks like we could possibly be reversing... dare to dream.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 9:04:20 GMT -8
Theory - due to incredibly coiled spring, can also buy on mini-confirmation signal/on the way up.
Could one wait? Well, LVS -"textbook" capitulation late July, didn't reverse until a couple trading days later (wish I'd followed that at the time).
Decent strategy or not?
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Post by PikesPique on Nov 8, 2012 9:05:45 GMT -8
AMZN, CMG, NFLX, GRPN, GMCR and FB have all been ridiculously overvalued this year. Personally, I felt AAPL was getting out of hand on the run up to 700. That makes it even more amazing that I didn't even consider selling some of my holdings. Too blinded by the future I guess. But I wouldn't categorize the run up as ridiculously overvalued like the rest of those that I pointed out. Yes, but JD's "dumb bunny" investors don't always realize the difference. They seem to lump AAPL in the same category for any number of reasons: "high" share price, big name in the news, similar seeming industries, etc. If these other companies can't sustain growth and "high" share prices, why would they think AAPL can? Their cursory observations about other big name stocks can affect how they trade AAPL, irrational or not. But you are right, parabolic runs don't help anyone other than the big boys (and those that follow them as Gregg hopes to do). That applies equally to positive parabolas as well as negative ones.
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