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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 10:58:47 GMT -8
The stock is trading on sentiment alone. Unfortunately we are alone in our sentiment. a few people on cnbc have said its crazy not to buy at this price, if that counts for anything.
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Post by pauls on Nov 8, 2012 11:05:22 GMT -8
Added shares, again. Averaging down on my WTF shopping spree of the last several weeks.
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Post by PikesPique on Nov 8, 2012 11:06:51 GMT -8
Yes Pikes, but how do they all compare with AAPL's multiple and record of real growth on really big numbers? That's the disconnect. AAPL treated like a peer. Exactly. And that's the problem, since it's not a peer. But, the perception is killing us.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 11:16:27 GMT -8
That is not good news, he is one of us! We need to stick together at a time like this. That's very true, I don't wish to loose anyone although in perspective Nate was a poor listener and I often asked myself what value the board is/was to Nate given his unwillingness to listen and constantly ask for the elusive answer of what the stock is going to do today or tomorrow. Nate was an energy drainer. He brought nothing to the table, and demanded seconds on everything already there.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Nov 8, 2012 11:32:03 GMT -8
That's very true, I don't wish to loose anyone although in perspective Nate was a poor listener and I often asked myself what value the board is/was to Nate given his unwillingness to listen and constantly ask for the elusive answer of what the stock is going to do today or tomorrow. Nate was an energy drainer. He brought nothing to the table, and demanded seconds on everything already there. +1
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 8, 2012 11:40:46 GMT -8
That's very true, I don't wish to loose anyone although in perspective Nate was a poor listener and I often asked myself what value the board is/was to Nate given his unwillingness to listen and constantly ask for the elusive answer of what the stock is going to do today or tomorrow. Nate was an energy drainer. He brought nothing to the table, and demanded seconds on everything already there. Nate left after iPad deleted one of his political, name-calling posts. Said she was mean and left. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back once he gets over the election results and/or AAPL recovers.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 11:49:25 GMT -8
I have always wondered why much of the process couldn't be automated, doing away with the labour content. I guess many components are fabricated this way, it's just the assembly thats the issue? I'm not from the US, but I do remember Macs that were made in California. I've wondered the same thing. My WAG is the design and form factor change so fast that the cost of keeping an automated process current is prohibitive vs. the cost of Chinese labor. If there is anything to the rumor of manufacturing in the US, it would be automated manufacturing. To develop, operate and maintain the automated process would require a talented and highly skilled/trained labor force in which America might possibly be able to compete in. See post about taxation strategies. Cost of upgrading automation is peanuts compared to cost of taxes.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 11:57:25 GMT -8
may be that was the final dip haha That would assume the EO have left the trading floor. There is no such thing as EO. What you have now are the late comers to the selloff, the ignorati. The institutions have been in accumulation mode for the last two weeks.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 11:58:54 GMT -8
I have concluded that the markets are irrational. The only thing irrational about the markets, are people's understanding of them.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 11:59:23 GMT -8
well we broke 30m volume and have the final hour to go.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 12:03:17 GMT -8
That would assume the EO have left the trading floor. There is no such thing as EO. What you have now are the late comers to the selloff, the ignorati. The institutions have been in accumulation mode for the last two weeks. Well if the Institutions are buying over the past 2 weeks, at least they're down a good $100/share as well
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Nov 8, 2012 12:06:20 GMT -8
As I thrash about for some rational place to stand in this madness, I have stumbled across a few things that might be worthy of further discussion. I would appreciate any comments on them.
1. If I assume that the pros are at least as smart as we are and have access to the same or better information, I have to believe that they all see the upside in Apple. Given the historic growth rates in the stock over the past 10 years, the surge that began a year ago might be more a result of an expansion in the pool of potential buyers due to the dividend, rather than a sudden awareness of the greatness of the company. This is supported a little by the way that the stock took off right after Steve passed away, a time when it should have crashed. If this is the case, i.e. if the price is driven by the available money, the real movement would come from a share split and inclusion in the DOW. This idea also aligns with the mysterious P/E compression. 2. Adding China Mobile might not be that important in the short run. What is the advantage of more demand when you are selling everything you can make? In the long run, sure, it matters. 3. I have to agree with JD on the character and motivation of the FUDmeisters. FUD follows, it doesn't guide.
If the institutions are limited by the percentage of their value that can be in one stock and they are all maxed out, it is hard to see where we get the juice to move up. To me, this seems to say that this is an excellent time to be selling calls.
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 8, 2012 12:08:05 GMT -8
That would assume the EO have left the trading floor. There is no such thing as EO. What you have now are the late comers to the selloff, the ignorati. The institutions have been in accumulation mode for the last two weeks. I don't believe Apple can drop this far, this fast, without institutions being net sellers. Gregg, please provide some evidence. My hunch is that you are guessing. And posting option open interest numbers is not proof.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 12:11:31 GMT -8
Tax talk to tax thread please.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 12:12:28 GMT -8
You guys just don't get it!
There is no EO that takes pleasure in costing you money. There are only other investors trading to their own benefit. By a 70% to 30% ratio the institutions hold more shares of AAPL, than do retail accounts. The institutions have been in accumulation mode for the past couple of weeks, while the retailers are wringing their hands, and accusing some dark force of conspiring against them. Bullshit.
It all comes down to fundamentals, and the institutions watch those very carefully, going so far as to meet with Apple suppliers on a regular basis to see how THEY are doing, and what they expect from the future.
We don't have that ability, so we should be watching what the people that do have the ability are doing.
Stop with this hand wringing nonsense and learn to read quarterlies and understand Apple's guidance. To be sure, to fully understand Apple's guidance you have to understand that Apple can, and does, miss its internal numbers. And those misses cause AAPL to sell off, not EOs (hate that concept). You can tell who doesn't have a clue by the responses that nobody knows what Apple's internal numbers are. Those are the people to avoid.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 12:13:16 GMT -8
Gregg, next you will tell me that Mother Nature doesn't exist!! Lalalalalala -- I'm NOT listening to you!!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 12:14:41 GMT -8
There is no such thing as EO. What you have now are the late comers to the selloff, the ignorati. The institutions have been in accumulation mode for the last two weeks. I don't believe Apple can drop this far, this fast, without institutions being net sellers. Gregg, please provide some evidence. My hunch is that you are guessing. And posting option open interest numbers is not proof. Your statement about hunches tells me you don't know a thing, want someone else to show you. I've posted my theories, and the evidence for them on several occasions. Not doing it any more. I've had it with talking to walls.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 12:18:14 GMT -8
Gregg you are a wealth of knowledge and I love learning from you, but in the same sense you are making some big claims too. You've gotten smoked as much, or more, than a lot of us too by having very bullish trades on the table, so if it's so easy and simple that this is what is happening, why would you not have used that earlier?
I feel like only in the past few days have you talked about 'figuring out' how the institutions trade. Knowing that would be worth instant millions.
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Post by sponge on Nov 8, 2012 12:19:32 GMT -8
Man, I wish everyone would quit selling so the price would go up for any buyers that might be out there. I miss the calm confidence of Sponge at times like this. Where has he gone? And BrazilNUts. Can someone contact him and bring him in please? Bought the dip at $650 or so and am feeling much less smug lately I am still around. Never more bullish. I have been selling my long stock from 650 and been buying up April calls. Will make in 5 months what took me 4 years. ;D Average cost of the April calls 5.83. This all deja vu from last year with a few more percentage points downward for extra measure. Wont be surprised to see 520 before it is all done. I still see $800 by beginning of March. Apple will shock the world with a very good number in January and we will start the move up big time then. We may get more then $620 by then however. One never knows when the big boys decide to buy back. In the mean time just batten down the hatches and ride out the storm.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 12:20:19 GMT -8
well we broke 30m volume and have the final hour to go. On a positive note, at least we have had 31 million shares bought today - there always has to be a buyer for every seller.
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 8, 2012 12:21:00 GMT -8
I don't believe Apple can drop this far, this fast, without institutions being net sellers. Gregg, please provide some evidence. My hunch is that you are guessing. And posting option open interest numbers is not proof. Your statement about hunches tells me you don't know a thing, want someone else to show you. I've posted my theories, and the evidence for them on several occasions. Not doing it any more. I've had it with talking to walls. With all due respect, that is a cop out. The fact is that you can't back it up.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 12:24:21 GMT -8
Knock it off!!!!!!! I'm trying to watch the market here!!!!!!!
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Post by tuffett on Nov 8, 2012 12:25:09 GMT -8
Gregg you are a wealth of knowledge and I love learning from you, but in the same sense you are making some big claims too. You've gotten smoked as much, or more, than a lot of us too by having very bullish trades on the table, so if it's so easy and simple that this is what is happening, why would you not have used that earlier? I feel like only in the past few days have you talked about 'figuring out' how the institutions trade. Knowing that would be worth instant millions. I have to agree with this. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you probably had it "figured out" a few months and have now completely changed your methodology. Now you're accusing everyone else of being ignorant if they don't fully agree with your views? Why is so far-fetched of an idea that big money shakes out weak money by manipulating price regardless of fundamentals? It's a simple concept and quite frankly - they'd be stupid not to.
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Post by onemoreanimal on Nov 8, 2012 12:29:07 GMT -8
There is no such thing as EO. What does EO stand for?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 12:29:51 GMT -8
Just last week we had the report of a combined FBI/SEC investigation into market manipulation of AAPL, to suggest that there isn't at least some market manipulation occurring is a contentious claim.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 12:30:46 GMT -8
There is no such thing as EO. What does EO stand for? Erroneous observations. (Or evil overlords, depending on your view)
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Post by tuffett on Nov 8, 2012 12:31:32 GMT -8
We're $8 away from a 2% dividend yield. That was around the floor on the last selloff. I don't know how many more -$20 days I can take.
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Post by nathanstevens on Nov 8, 2012 12:31:40 GMT -8
How about some good news? My wife and I just got home from a month of traveling and our preordered iPad mini was waiting for us! First impressions. It is awesome and crazy light. Screen resolution seems perfectly acceptable although we don't have a retina iPad to compare it to. Fit and finish is outstanding. The chamfered glass is a vast improvement over my iPhone 4S. This definitely doesn't feel like a product that was rushed to market. Seems like the perfect size for kids. Schools will be buying loads of these. As for me? Another iPad mini will be on the way soon. My wife has already claimed this one. As for AAPL. I think it is a good move to accept lower margins (initially) on the mini. I think we will see the benefits as schools everywhere order these in huge quantities. Nothing like introducing people to the apple ecosystem as children and having plenty of other higher margin products available for them as they grow up. Read Rule #1 Investing Buy some shares or LEAPS and step back from the screen and stop watching the 2 minute charts.
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Post by frqntflr on Nov 8, 2012 12:33:43 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Nov 8, 2012 12:49:57 GMT -8
$60 in a week. 10%. And we started under $600. Absolutely unreal.
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