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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 12:55:25 GMT -8
$60 in a week. 10%. And we started under $600. Absolutely unreal. the best company in the world is trading like a manipulated penny stock on the OTC. i think im beyond "wtf" now and just in the numb phase.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 12:57:27 GMT -8
"Can't have much further to go"
Me. Everyday for the last week.
I'll be right eventually.
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Post by stevereel on Nov 8, 2012 12:59:59 GMT -8
"Can't have much further to go" Me. Everyday for the last week. I'll be right eventually. +1
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Post by adamthompson32 on Nov 8, 2012 13:00:24 GMT -8
Just bought 20 February 650's. How much worse can this thing get? My April 750's are wiped out basically, for now.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 8, 2012 13:01:53 GMT -8
"Can't have much further to go" Me. Everyday for the last week. I'll be right eventually. This is finally capitulation. No really, this is it. Seriously, today is the day. None of us really knows. Those Evil Bastards.
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 8, 2012 13:01:59 GMT -8
Two plain and simple words.
F'ing Bullsh_t
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Post by cambrose on Nov 8, 2012 13:02:07 GMT -8
I've noticed all the news on Googles quote page have turned from hit pieces to positive items. Leading indicator??
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 13:03:29 GMT -8
37.5m Volume.
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Post by lance on Nov 8, 2012 13:03:47 GMT -8
officially worst dip since 2008 by percent - on minimal news. Enough said. inexcess of 24% 7 straight weeks of downs zero sign it will be better anytime soon. And apple has the best balance sheet from any company in the world with a billion of free cash flow a week.
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Post by cambrose on Nov 8, 2012 13:04:20 GMT -8
If we get to 530, I'm converting another large block of stock to LEAPS.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 8, 2012 13:04:52 GMT -8
I've noticed all the news on Googles quote page have turned from hit pieces to positive items. Leading indicator?? One of those stories says 46 million iPhones. I hope they are off. We need 50+ don't we?
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Post by tuffett on Nov 8, 2012 13:04:53 GMT -8
2% divvy, P/E just a hair over 12 and absolutely no sign of letting up. Is this real life?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 13:07:53 GMT -8
This is getting to the point where I might actually sell common and wait til there's a good chance at an option play.
This selloff is beyond WTF.
Geez..
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Post by cambrose on Nov 8, 2012 13:08:15 GMT -8
I've noticed all the news on Googles quote page have turned from hit pieces to positive items. Leading indicator?? One of those stories says 46 million iPhones. I hope they are off. We need 50+ don't we? Story is still framed in a positive light with quarter over quarter increases. Just saying Value Walk and Insider Monkey are waaaay off their normal tone.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 13:09:05 GMT -8
Well if the Institutions are buying over the past 2 weeks, at least they're down a good $100/share as well Not if they were sellers starting at $705 down to $630. Then have been Call (January expiry) buyers since. Institutions lead, we can only follow.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 13:09:18 GMT -8
If you have an AAPL estimate spreadsheet (if I can, anyone can), it's not that hard to get some idea of what units for a given revenue with some educated guess assumptions on ASP.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 8, 2012 13:09:40 GMT -8
Jesus, this is sure turning into an awesome week.
Believe it or not, pain range as of last night is 565-569.99.
Stk Calls Puts 525 21 5,465 530 108 2,972 535 69 3,816 540 178 7,245 545 311 6,164 550 1,082 8,428 555 1,478 7,232 560 4,242 7,304 565 5,789 6,328 570 7,933 5,348 575 7,589 3,882
Of course we are in Bad Sentiment OMG WTF Panic "Sell Mortimer" Taxes-Going-Up Mode™, but that's a shitload of puts the EO's are going to eat if we don't go up.
Not to mention all the psychotropic pills I'm going to eat.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 13:09:49 GMT -8
Lets not get factual answers based on empirical evidence mixed up with theories. The weakness in theory is that as you are testing it the line between evidence vs just data becomes cloudy. It's really as simple as this: if you are selling hammers everything looks like a nail.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 8, 2012 13:11:34 GMT -8
This is getting to the point where I might actually sell common and wait til there's a good chance at an option play. This selloff is beyond WTF. Geez.. Yep. Already on this path. Whoever said we may see 522 again is starting to sound right. But we'll be back. The pain will pass.
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Post by prazan on Nov 8, 2012 13:13:40 GMT -8
I chose a remarkable time for my first investments in bull call spreads. What's that burning smell? Toast, I think.
I keep checking my spreadsheets to see if I'm missing something. We're lined up for solid growth next year. This is 95% fear, uncertainty, and doubt. When people stop having great experiences with Apple products my investment thesis will change. This isn't that time.
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 8, 2012 13:15:19 GMT -8
I can't think of a better time for TC and the board to announce a special "buy back" ..... I'm of the opinion they don't give a crap about the share price and I'm fine with that but ..... this stock is SO cheap it would be a great use of the war chest ... what better company to invest in ? So don't do it for the investors but think of it as a pretty good use of some of that cash.
This really sucks and I'm long I can't imagine how you options guys and gals are doing ...... stressful times. But I'm reasonable certain that it will pass .... I've been holding since $37 and I've seen worse percentage wise.
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Post by Plato on Nov 8, 2012 13:15:45 GMT -8
Just be careful out there. You know the saying .... just if you think it can't get worse than that ....
I see 522 in the cards easily.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 8, 2012 13:16:42 GMT -8
Well if the Institutions are buying over the past 2 weeks, at least they're down a good $100/share as well Not if they were sellers starting at $705 down to $630. Then have been Call (January expiry) buyers since. Institutions lead, we can only follow. You say institutions have been buying for the last two weeks. If so, then who, besides retail, have been selling? There's only 1 other group left, and that's hedge funds and prop desks (the so-called "smart money). So it sounds like we have to wait for the last share from the last seller to be sold - true "capitulation" - before we start going north. At that point, the buyers would be smart money and more buying from institutions, augmented by retail, and jet-fueled by shorts. Concur?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 13:18:53 GMT -8
This is getting to the point where I might actually sell common and wait til there's a good chance at an option play. This selloff is beyond WTF. Geez.. Placed a Buy order for 300 JAN 13 $655/$675 Bull Call Spreads at 98ยข. Expect them to fill tomorrow. Don't care if AAPL drops another $30.00. That's not the point. If AAPL Closes above $675 (ISM 15.30) I profit $570,000 on an investment of $30,000. That is from watching the Institutions and ignoring EO theory.
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Post by prazan on Nov 8, 2012 13:19:43 GMT -8
I've noticed all the news on Googles quote page have turned from hit pieces to positive items. Leading indicator?? One of those stories says 46 million iPhones. I hope they are off. We need 50+ don't we? My current estimates (of dubious worth, as always) call for 48 million units, which combined with other products and a 39% GM, result in a $15 EPS. So no, we don't need 50+ million.
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Post by highway2heel on Nov 8, 2012 13:19:53 GMT -8
Question: "Why are you hitting your head with a hammer?!?!"
Answer: "Because it feels SO good when I stop!!"
Moral? I'm an idiot for thinking I had an inkling of a clue why the market does what it do.
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 8, 2012 13:20:57 GMT -8
Gregg you are a wealth of knowledge and I love learning from you, but in the same sense you are making some big claims too. You've gotten smoked as much, or more, than a lot of us too by having very bullish trades on the table, so if it's so easy and simple that this is what is happening, why would you not have used that earlier? I feel like only in the past few days have you talked about 'figuring out' how the institutions trade. Knowing that would be worth instant millions. I have to agree with this. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you probably had it "figured out" a few months and have now completely changed your methodology. Now you're accusing everyone else of being ignorant if they don't fully agree with your views? Why is so far-fetched of an idea that big money shakes out weak money by manipulating price regardless of fundamentals? It's a simple concept and quite frankly - they'd be stupid not to. +1 (-100 + 101)
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 8, 2012 13:26:00 GMT -8
One of those stories says 46 million iPhones. I hope they are off. We need 50+ don't we? My current estimates (of dubious worth, as always) call for 48 million units, which combined with other products and a 39% GM, result in a $15 EPS. So no, we don't need 50+ million. Thanks Prazan.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 13:26:18 GMT -8
just looking back, the one day i decided "im selling at the opening bell!", Apple went from 610 to 635. Every single other day i've considered it, I drink the same koolaid thinking that will happen again at the gap up, but then get murdered during the day.
Maybe if I just buy puts or sell a call spread, Apple will turn around. OH Wait- I have no $ left to do anything.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Nov 8, 2012 13:27:23 GMT -8
The institutions have been in accumulation mode for the last two weeks. I don't believe that to be possible. The volumes on decline we are seeing cannot be attributed to individual investors alone. They are simply too high.
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