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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 12, 2016 12:07:00 GMT -8
Well I was looking forward to all the political ads disappearing and for putting everything behind us after the election. I seriously think things got worse. I would love to go on a rant but here's the deal - and it is NOT political - I love my country (USA) and I embrace democracy and its processes regardless of what the outcome of an election may or may not be. End of story - move on. My son's friends used to call me the General. I was all about tough love. I never put up with the BS. Life does not always bring the expected - it's a journey. You have to stop looking back - we're not going that way - we're moving forward - so let's focus on what's ahead. This thread is for discussing how we may be affected as a stock and/or sector in the wake of potential policies that will undoubtedly be put forth. And so the thread begins this weekend... A quick snapshot in Forbes: Apple Loop: Apple Kills iPhone Successor, MacBook Pro Decimates Competition, Secret iPhone Discounts www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2016/11/11/apple-news-headlines-iphone-se2-macbook-pro-secret-discount/#31ec7e5646b1Macrumors: Looks like the MacBook Pros are shipping out - hopefully will create a greater buzz as the holiday season approaches: www.macrumors.com/2016/11/12/touch-bar-macbook-pros-shipping/PED put out a note: Excerpted from Katy Huberty's note to clients Friday: "While lowering the corporate tax rate should benefit all of the names in our coverage universe, a repatriation holiday should be beneficial and most impactful for the mid-to-large cap names that have a significant percentage of cash held by foreign subsidiaries and are interested in making acquisitions or stepping up capital return to shareholders. Apple, with $216B of cash held offshore (or 37% of market cap), is the largest beneficiary and would likely pay $54B less in taxes should a repatriation holiday occur and they decide to move all their cash onshore. This would give Apple a significant amount of accessible dry powder to potentially make a sizable acquisition, boost returns to shareholders, pay down debt or do all of the above. It would likely also remove an overhang on the stock that has been in place for many years."Enjoy your weekend!
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Post by appledoc on Nov 12, 2016 13:56:31 GMT -8
Hey JD, I can't believe I'm saying this but, damn if I don't agree with everything you've been saying. Just needed a few years to come around.
AAPL's problem isn't the threats a Trump presidency could bring. They still need to find the next big thing. iPad has become a relative disaster, Apple TV is irrelevant, the car is a pipe dream. Income is down and so are iPhone sales. And until those turn around, the stock will be stagnant.
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Post by firestorm on Nov 12, 2016 18:29:56 GMT -8
Hey JD, I can't believe I'm saying this but, damn if I don't agree with everything you've been saying. Just needed a few years to come around. AAPL's problem isn't the threats a Trump presidency could bring. They still need to find the next big thing. iPad has become a relative disaster, Apple TV is irrelevant, the car is a pipe dream. Income is down and so are iPhone sales. And until those turn around, the stock will be stagnant. I can believe I'm saying this, but I disagree with EVERYTHING JD says, and more than I did just a couple of years ago. Though I agree with your statement about APPL. I consider the stock dead money unless we get into a trade war with China, and then it might as well be buried money.
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Post by sponge on Nov 12, 2016 19:07:17 GMT -8
TC after meeting with Ryan said in the WSJ that they will bring money home. A tax deal is a done deal now that DT is president. I think it would have happened even with HC as president.
The market reaction in the DOW is a signal that the economy will be fine. I think the tech stocks will catch up and recover in short order.
Ultimately we need to see solid earnings for these positive moves to continue.
Very optimistic about Apple. Lots of growth left in all of their products. We matured quickly with iPad and iPhone, and will have periods of lower growth just like the Mac. Services is the long term strength as the base expands.
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Post by firestorm on Nov 12, 2016 19:40:30 GMT -8
Well I was looking forward to all the political ads disappearing and for putting everything behind us after the election. I seriously think things got worse. I would love to go on a rant but here's the deal - and it is NOT political - I love my country (USA) and I embrace democracy and its processes regardless of what the outcome of an election may or may not be. End of story - move on. My son's friends used to call me the General. I was all about tough love. I never put up with the BS. Life does not always bring the expected - it's a journey. You have to stop looking back - we're not going that way - we're moving forward - so let's focus on what's ahead. This thread is for discussing how we may be affected as a stock and/or sector in the wake of potential policies that will undoubtedly be put forth. And so the thread begins this weekend... A quick snapshot in Forbes: Apple Loop: Apple Kills iPhone Successor, MacBook Pro Decimates Competition, Secret iPhone Discounts www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2016/11/11/apple-news-headlines-iphone-se2-macbook-pro-secret-discount/#31ec7e5646b1Macrumors: Looks like the MacBook Pros are shipping out - hopefully will create a greater buzz as the holiday season approaches: www.macrumors.com/2016/11/12/touch-bar-macbook-pros-shipping/PED put out a note: Excerpted from Katy Huberty's note to clients Friday: "While lowering the corporate tax rate should benefit all of the names in our coverage universe, a repatriation holiday should be beneficial and most impactful for the mid-to-large cap names that have a significant percentage of cash held by foreign subsidiaries and are interested in making acquisitions or stepping up capital return to shareholders. Apple, with $216B of cash held offshore (or 37% of market cap), is the largest beneficiary and would likely pay $54B less in taxes should a repatriation holiday occur and they decide to move all their cash onshore. This would give Apple a significant amount of accessible dry powder to potentially make a sizable acquisition, boost returns to shareholders, pay down debt or do all of the above. It would likely also remove an overhang on the stock that has been in place for many years."Enjoy your weekend! I am an American, and I will feel free to express my feelings about the outcome of an election whenever I want: on the streets or on a website. It's called freedom of speech. Deal with it.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 12, 2016 20:22:40 GMT -8
Hey JD, I can't believe I'm saying this but, damn if I don't agree with everything you've been saying. Just needed a few years to come around. AAPL's problem isn't the threats a Trump presidency could bring. They still need to find the next big thing. iPad has become a relative disaster, Apple TV is irrelevant, the car is a pipe dream. Income is down and so are iPhone sales. And until those turn around, the stock will be stagnant. I can believe I'm saying this, but I disagree with EVERYTHING JD says, and more than I did just a couple of years ago. Though I agree with your statement about APPL. I consider the stock dead money unless we get into a trade war with China, and then it might as well be buried money. Being in AAPL is basically gambling at this point. Will the repatriation happen before or after China sales tank even further and the iPhone starts a consistent decline? I now agree with the stock having zero innovation value, because their projects are failing and they can't even execute their existing ones. It seems their massively growing R&D spend is being used to iterate on existing products which are great but nonetheless losing their appeal in the face of competitors stepping up their game.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 12, 2016 21:32:40 GMT -8
Hey JD, I can't believe I'm saying this but, damn if I don't agree with everything you've been saying. Just needed a few years to come around. Wait, may I revise and extend my remarks?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 12, 2016 21:34:02 GMT -8
Hey JD, I can't believe I'm saying this but, damn if I don't agree with everything you've been saying. Just needed a few years to come around. AAPL's problem isn't the threats a Trump presidency could bring. They still need to find the next big thing. iPad has become a relative disaster, Apple TV is irrelevant, the car is a pipe dream. Income is down and so are iPhone sales. And until those turn around, the stock will be stagnant. I can believe I'm saying this, but I disagree with EVERYTHING JD says, and more than I did just a couple of years ago. Nvm appledoc, all is right with the world.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2016 4:25:06 GMT -8
Firestorm, of course I respect your freedom of speech - just put it on the appropriate thread (the Dungeon) ... like an adult.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 13, 2016 7:55:00 GMT -8
Firestorm, of course I respect your freedom of speech - just put it on the appropriate thread (the Dungeon) ... like an adult. If Firestorm is SMART, he should copy his political remarks above, paste them in the DUNGEON where they belong, AND then delete them from the weekend thread. We have no policemen here! If YOU want to riot and burn down THIS website, NO ONE can stop you. The DUNGEON exists for a reason.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 13, 2016 8:04:25 GMT -8
Firestorm, of course I respect your freedom of speech - just put it on the appropriate thread (the Dungeon) ... like an adult. That's exactly what Firestorm has been doing.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2016 8:15:26 GMT -8
Firestorm, of course I respect your freedom of speech - just put it on the appropriate thread (the Dungeon) ... like an adult. That's exactly what Firestorm has been doing. So no need to project his anger on me given what I attempted to keep down the middle in stating love of country and moving onto economic issues in my start on this weekend's thread. His response toward me was not warranted. Enough - we are spending too much time on this back and forth - let's just talk all things .
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 13, 2016 8:18:21 GMT -8
Firestorm, of course I respect your freedom of speech - just put it on the appropriate thread (the Dungeon) ... like an adult. If Firestorm is SMART, he should copy his political remarks above, paste them in the DUNGEON where they belong, AND then delete them from the weekend thread. We have no policemen here! If YOU want to riot and burn down THIS website, NO ONE can stop you. The DUNGEON exists for a reason. We all know that political remarks will pop up here outside the dungeon. Usually it isn't Firestorm who starts it. Firestorm has been keeping his political remarks in the dungeon. If you provoke him here, you'll bring a response here.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 13, 2016 8:34:06 GMT -8
That's exactly what Firestorm has been doing. So no need to project his anger on me given what I attempted to keep down the middle in stating love of country and moving onto economic issues in my start on this weekend's thread. His response toward me was not warranted. Enough - we are spending too much time on this back and forth - let's just talk all things . To be clear, my last post wasn't saying you were provoking Firestorm. It was the other guy. Agree we should be talking Apple up here, not the need to keep political talk out. So let's do that.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 13, 2016 8:43:10 GMT -8
This thread is for discussing how we may be affected as a stock and/or sector in the wake of potential policies that will undoubtedly be put forth. Folks, lets respect the invitation to talk policy, not politics. If Trump's tariff talk was just a starting point for negotiations on trade and pressuring American companies to create jobs here, could it still hurt Apple?
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Post by firestorm on Nov 13, 2016 9:22:21 GMT -8
Firestorm, of course I respect your freedom of speech - just put it on the appropriate thread (the Dungeon) ... like an adult. May I remind you that you started down the wrong track with your ill-considered first paragraph? Please, be adult enough to admit it. I was simply responding to appledoc, who made the first political comment (besides yours), yet of course you did not go after him.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 13, 2016 10:01:59 GMT -8
Firestorm, of course I respect your freedom of speech - just put it on the appropriate thread (the Dungeon) ... like an adult. May I remind you that you started down the wrong track with your ill-considered first paragraph? Please, be adult enough to admit it. I was simply responding to appledoc, who made the first political comment (besides yours), yet of course you did not go after him. If appledoc was referring to politics, it may not have been clear to everyone.
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Post by firestorm on Nov 13, 2016 10:09:29 GMT -8
That's exactly what Firestorm has been doing. So no need to project his anger on me given what I attempted to keep down the middle in stating love of country and moving onto economic issues in my start on this weekend's thread. His response toward me was not warranted. Enough - we are spending too much time on this back and forth - let's just talk all things . You should have made your point much more diplomatically.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2016 10:10:10 GMT -8
No it wasn't clear to me that he was (appleDoc) however there are many on this board who keep the rest of us in check when we digress into politics. I've been on both sides of that in the past. HOWEVER, to say that I love my country and embrace democracy - without getting into whether I am happy or not about the outcome is NOT a political statement. I just wanted to move on. UNLESS I am now being told that love of country and democracy is too political for the this thread - which if it is - my apologies to any vet or family of vet on the thread.
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Post by firestorm on Nov 13, 2016 10:13:12 GMT -8
No it wasn't clear to me that he was (appleDoc) however there are many on this board who keep the rest of us in check when we digress into politics. I've been on both sides of that in the past. HOWEVER, to say that I love my country and embrace democracy - without getting into whether I am happy or not about the outcome is NOT a political statement. I just wanted to move on. UNLESS I am now being told that love of country and democracy is too political for the this thread - which if it is - my apologies to any vet or family of vet on the thread. Just keep it to Apple without the political tint and we'll all be fine. I love this country passionately.
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Post by firestorm on Nov 13, 2016 10:14:53 GMT -8
May I remind you that you started down the wrong track with your ill-considered first paragraph? Please, be adult enough to admit it. I was simply responding to appledoc, who made the first political comment (besides yours), yet of course you did not go after him. If appledoc was referring to politics, it may not have been clear to everyone. I think it was pretty self-evident when he said he believed in EVERYTHING JD said. I am leaving this forum to the right-wing. Goodbye all.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2016 10:22:43 GMT -8
If appledoc was referring to politics, it may not have been clear to everyone. I think it was pretty self-evident when he said he believed in EVERYTHING JD said. I try not to analyze every word - surprisingly he has a right to agree with him - he didn't get into the minutia of what it was but can we PLEASE move on as you suggested in your previous post. And to that end - does anyone think it is possible or even a good idea for the leaders in the Valley to form a group to go to DC and educate all the new powers that be - and even the Hill for that matter on the pro's and con's of potential legislature that could evolve and cause harm to the industry. Technology is too important a sector to ignore and sometimes it's a function of educating the powers that be BEFORE anything gets enacted and is hurtful. Would it make any sense if it was a group of CEOs, or no?
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 13, 2016 11:55:01 GMT -8
If appledoc was referring to politics, it may not have been clear to everyone. I think it was pretty self-evident when he said he believed in EVERYTHING JD said. I am leaving this forum to the right-wing. Goodbye all. I thought it was a reference to politics, but I was giving others the benefit of the doubt.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 13, 2016 12:20:28 GMT -8
One plus for Apple is those Apple Watch notifications from the Breathe app take on greater value in keeping customers in the Apple ecosystem for all the stressed out people on both sides or caught in the middle, whether its the election or the aftermath or anything else that's bothering them. It may not be a huge factor, but every incremental bit counts.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 13, 2016 13:26:26 GMT -8
I seem to have stumbled onto something that might be interesting to the board. It is a strategy that takes advantage of Apples unique combination of stability and volatility.
Those who follow the board are aware of the move I made in 2013 to refinance my house and buy Apple stock. I bought about 6000 shares at 62 and obviously have not been hurt. In addition, i have been selling calls against the shares and made another 100K or so. The mortgage os a 7/1 arm with 2 years to go, so I am looking at unwinding the position. To do that, I am going to donate the profit to my university as a charitable annuity. The charitable annuity pays 4.6%, avoids capital gains tax on the gain, generates a 40% immediate deduction to pay the taxes on the options profits and provides a 4.6% tax free return for life.
So when the smoke clears, I have a tax free gain and risk free cash stream. All of this with someone else's money.
This works because Apple is so solid financially and yet the FUDsters are able to drive the stock down so far that the dividends offset the interest cost. It also benefits from the long declines and recoveries that seem to be a characteristic of Apple.
After I get out, I will wait for another moment like the summer of 2013 and plan on repeating it. I am not advising anyone to follow me on this, but I wanted you to at least be aware of it
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Post by appledoc on Nov 13, 2016 14:50:20 GMT -8
Hey JD, I can't believe I'm saying this but, damn if I don't agree with everything you've been saying. Just needed a few years to come around. Wait, may I revise and extend my remarks? Shut up.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 13, 2016 14:55:31 GMT -8
Ok, no more politics talk here. Sorry.
But clearly the Trump administration can and likely will be drastically influential on Wall Street and Apple. The company still needs to get out of the ditch it's been in for the last 2-3 years. Apple TV, Watch, iPhone 7, touch MacBooks are not going to cut it.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 13, 2016 15:14:31 GMT -8
I'd be sorry to see you go, Firestorm. We sure have lost a lot of people on AFB 2, some of whom I miss. Anyway, sure hoping there is a permanent corporate tax break, not just repatriation. Lower it to competitive levels and we won't need tariffs. Just need some tax incentives for hiring and incorporating and manufacturing in the US, like every other developed country seems to understand. I mean, if you were starting a corporation and trying to maximize shareholder value, what would you do? Good times ahead!
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2016 15:39:17 GMT -8
The issue though - correct me if I am wrong - is that the goal is for comprehensive tax reform which would include corporate tax. However, the substance of the bill for all else will take a very long time to draft and negotiate, no? Do we really think this is going to get written, vetted and passed all in 2017?
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Post by longsince98 on Nov 13, 2016 16:34:45 GMT -8
I'd be sorry to see you go, Firestorm. We sure have lost a lot of people on AFB 2, some of whom I miss. Anyway, sure hoping there is a permanent corporate tax break, not just repatriation. Lower it to competitive levels and we won't need tariffs. Just need some tax incentives for hiring and incorporating and manufacturing in the US, like every other developed country seems to understand. I mean, if you were starting a corporation and trying to maximize shareholder value, what would you do? Good times ahead! Hey JD - while i find myself on the opposite side of the ideological spectrum as you, you've put forth enough intelligent comments over the years, that I consider your position seriously every time. As someone who's got a few businesses - a couple sizable ones - I'd certainly take advantage of lower corporate tax rates. But I will say IMO that tax rates aren't the biggest consideration by far - every time I've considered opening a company or office overseas (and I have one due to tax incentives), the key reason I return to the US is because of the better access to ambitious and entrepreneurial thought leaders. The US (major metropolitan) is the best in the world when it comes to those types, which improves business opportunity and function, which umtimately trumps tax rates IMO. However, as a counter argument, I would say that for execution of work (i.e. manufacturing) , which requires most labor, one could benefit from being in a territory with lower taxes. Without digressing into a far too nuanced a chat for a forum, this may be a key reason many of the leading companies in the world are here in the US, despite our highest corp tax rate.
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